Deja vu all over again

A poll, published for The Herald, for the period 27th Feb to the 5th of March in 2003 had the SNP more or less matching Labour. 32% SNP to Labour's 34%. The 2nd vote a dead heat at 30%.

They were exciting times, a genuine head-to-head was on the cards. Then doubts were raised over SNP finances, people decided change was 'too risky', the SNP didn't pack many strong punches as the election loomed. It all made for a rather dull last month of campaigning and an excruciatingly painful evening as a few seats changed hands but Labour and Lib Dem, as we all know, lived to tell the tale.


Now the polls have SNP in a stronger position than this time 4 years ago. But I can't seem to shake a rather depressing suspicion that we will be reliving Feb-May 2003 over the next few months. And it has started already. A rather strong Labour triumvariate of Wendy, Cathy J and someone else (damn my poor memory) tried their best to tear into SNP finances. Assisted by some Professor Midwinter person who had created the original analysis. Challenges have been made to the independence of this professor to comment as he may well have a Labour bias. I have read a lot about this and without sitting down for 48 hours with a calculator I don't really know who is right and wrong. I can therefore easily imagine that most people reading such stories will not know what or who to believe, but will be left with more than a modicum of doubt about how an SNP administration would run things. This, to me, is understandable but also rather unfair as spending plans for Labour (the sitting government) do not seem to have the same rigorous going over. Of course a new SNP government will have a rocky ride when they start off, maybe I'm naive but that's part of the excitement for me. Exciting times, off with the stabilizers and see how we do. Does anyone else think Scotland is the equivalent of a 30-odd year old who still lives with their parents?

Anyway, apart from that, it's frustrating as this is the one area that I thought the SNP had to be water-tight. It is Labour's only real method of attack on the SNP so I would have hoped that any queries over SNP spending policy would have been easily swatted down after months of preparation. Seemingly this has not been the case, despite my having confidence that an SNP-led Scotland would do just fine financially.

So if the future SNP "fully costed" manifesto is a bit ham-fisted and shaky, I suspect poll figures for the SNP, just like 4 years ago, could wind their way down the slippery slope to the mid-20s. I sincerely hope not but through my yellow-tinted spectacles, I'll keep my eyes peeled for reasons to not be so cheerful and adjust my expectations accordingly.