OK, so I am back from a little trip up north to Newcastle. (North to Newcastle you say, from a person in Scotland?!). Well, I am not in Scotland and nor was I on the Tyne for the past week. Let's just say there were beaches and precious little Newkie Broon Ale, it has been a great summer over the past few months and long may it continue, well until Mar 9th anyway when I jet off home on a 20 hour flight to the curiously comforting Edinburgth drizzle.
But, to get myself back into the Scottish Politics mood; I thought I would dig out my analysis of who will win which seats, look up the latest polls (of which there are none, pull your finger out ICM), do a round of my favourite blogs to see if I've changed my mind on any results (Jamie Stone's jacket is on a shoogly nail for example) and then tally up who will be winning where, and who will take the ultimate prize of power in Scotland.
I'll do a full rundown of the state of play for each constituency soon but for now, here is a quick synopsis of who wins where through my deep-blue, come to bed eyes... (what's the point in having a blog if you don't indulge in a little delusion from time to time)
Overall Seats
Labour 43
SNP 37
Tory 19
Lib Dem 18
Greens 7
SSP/Solidarity 3
Margo McDonald
Jean Turner
First past the post -
Labour 38
SNP 21
Lib Dem 10
Tory 3
Jean Turner 1
Regional Vote
Labour 5
SNP 16
Lib Dem 8
Tory 16
Greens 7
SSP 2
Solidarity 1
Margo 1
Note that I am still holding off awarding the SNP some very tight seats due to my natural caution. Another strong poll in their favour and I will 'allow' the likes of Jim Mather, Rob Gibson, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Tricia Marwick, Christina McKelvie and others to win their seats as opposed to coming a close second.
Tactical voting -
Ayr - Vote for John Scott of Conservatives
Coatbridge & Chryston - Vote for Julie McAnulty, independent health candidate
Edinburgh Pentlands - Vote for David McLetchie
Edinburgh South - Vote for Mike Pringle of Lib Dems
Edinburgh West - Vote for Margaret Smith of Lib Dems
Eastwood - Vote for Jackson Carlaw of Conserevatives
Strathkelvin - Vote for Jean Turner
Ok, so that's all for now, just a wee post to keep things ticking over before coming up with some new ideas over the next few days. For now, I'm off to see The Good Shepherd. Ciao!
Breakdown of who I think will win where......
Airdrie & Shotts Central Karen Whitefield
Coatbridge & Chryston Central Elaine Smith
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth Central Jamie Hepburn
East Kilbride Central Andy Kerr
Falkirk East Central Cathy Peattie
Falkirk West Central Labour candidate
Hamilton North Central Michael McMahon
Hamilton South Central Tom McCabe
Kilmarnock & Loudoun Central Willie Coffey
Motherwell & Wishaw Central Jack McConnell
Glasgow Anniesland Glasgow Bill Butler
Glasgow Baillieston Glasgow Margaret Curran
Glasgow Cathcart Glasgow Charlie Gordon
Glasgow Govan Glasgow Nicola Sturgeon
Glasgow Kelvin Glasgow Pauline McNeill
Glasgow Maryhill Glasgow Patricia Ferguson
Glasgow Pollok Glasgow Johann Lamont
Glasgow Rutherglen Glasgow James Kelly
Glasgow Shettleston Glasgow Frank McAveety
Glasgow Springburn Glasgow Paul Martin
Argyll & Bute Highlands & Islands George Lyon
Caithness Highlands & Islands Jamie Stone
Inverness EastN Highlands & Islands Fergus Ewing
Moray Highlands & Islands Richard Lochhead
Orkney Highlands & Islands Liam McArthur
Ross Skye & I W Highlands & Islands John Farquar Munro
Shetland Highlands & Islands Tavish Scott
Western Isles Highlands & Islands Alasdair Allan
Edinburgh Central Lothian Sarah Boyack
Edinburgh East Lothian Labour candidate
Edinburgh North & L Lothian Malcolm Chisholm
Edinburgh Pentlands Lothian David McLetchie
Edinburgh South Lothian Cllr Donald Anderson
Edinburgh West Lothian Margaret Smith
Linlithgow Lothian Fiona Hyslop
Livingston Lothian Angela Constance
Midlothian Lothian Rhona Brankin
Central Fife Mid Scotland & Fife Christine May
Dunfermline E Mid Scotland & Fife Helen Eadie
Dunfermline W Mid Scotland & Fife Scott Barrie
Kirkcaldy Mid Scotland & Fife Marilyn Livingston
North East Fife Mid Scotland & Fife Iain Smith
North Tayside Mid Scotland & Fife John Swinney
Ochil Mid Scotland & Fife Keith Brown
Perth Mid Scotland & Fife Roseanna Cunningham
Stirling Mid Scotland & Fife Sylvia Jackson
Aberdeen Central North East Lewis Macdonald
Aberdeen North North East Brian Adam
Aberdeen South North East Nicol Stephen
Angus North East Andrew Welsh
Banff & Buchan North East Stewart Stevenson
Dundee East North East Shona Robison
Dundee West North East Joe Fitzpatrick
Gordon North East Alex Salmond
West Aberdeenshire North East Mike Rumbles
Ayr South of Scotland John Scott
Carrick Cummnock & Doon Valley South of Scotland Cathy Jamieson
Clydesdale South of Scotland Aileen Campbell
Cunninghame South South of Scotland Irene Oldfather
Dumfries South of Scotland Elaine Murray
East Lothian South of Scotland Iain Gray
Galloway & Upper Nithsdale South of Scotland Alasdair Morgan
Roxburgh & Berwickshire South of Scotland Euan Robson
Tweeddale Ettrick & Lauderdale South of Scotland Christine Grahame
Clydebank & Milngavie West of Scotland Des McNulty
Cunninghame North West of Scotland Allan Wilson
Dumbarton West of Scotland Jackie Baillie
Eastwood West of Scotland Jackson Carlaw
Greenock & Inverclyde West of Scotland Duncan McNeil
Paisley North West of Scotland Wendy Alexander
Paisley South West of Scotland Hugh Henry
Strathkelvin & Bearsd West of Scotland Jean Turner
West Renfrewshire West of Scotland Patricia Godman
Labour at war with itself over Welsh NHS
52 minutes ago
13 comments:
I agree with a lot of what you say but I don't see Alex Fergusson losing GUN to Alisdair Morgan nor do I see Jackson Carlaw winning Eastwood. When the Tories start winning seats in Eastwood then our MSPs will also start riding in ministerial cards.
Good analysis over all. Just swap those two about.
Al
Glad you are predicting the demise of that sexual deviant Jeremy 'Pervert' Purvis in TEL
Hi Alan, glad to have a Tory viewpoint on here. A welcome relief actually.
I can see why you're tearing your hair out, an old-skool Tory manifesto could do wonders in this election. I admit I'd be tempted to vote for it myself. Don't see it coming though...
Anyway, Alasdair Morgan only lost by 99 votes in 2003 and he won the seat in 1999. I think with the SNP better placed this year than in 2003, and with this being their top target seat, I think Alasdair Morgan is a shoe-in for GUN.
Can I ask for your thoughts on why you disagree?
As for Jackson Carlaw, yeah, my thinking was a bit woolly on that one. I know nothing about any of the candidates but looking at the electoral math, coupled with the expected 'anyone but Labour mentality', I do still expect Jackson Carlaw to take this one. I for one, as an SNP voter, wouldn't hesitate to vote for him to ensure Labour don't win. And the Tories are certainly within touching distance.
The only way I can see me getting it wrong is if the Tory vote has crumbled more than I realise since 2003. You will no doubt have a more valid opinion on that than I will have...
Thanks for the comment.
Anonymous - Em, I'm not entirely sure what you are referring to there. Care to elaborate? (*As I try to remember if I have the power to moderate comments*)
But yes, I think he had a lucky year in 2003. I still kind of hope Labour win this one during my moments of weakness.
I personally find Christine Grahame has a tendency to make scandals and issues out of trifling stories. But maybe she knows what she is doing and I have the political nous of a monkfish.
I really don't see the Tories losing the seat of GUN Jeff. Alex is, by all accounts, a bloody good local campaigner. I appreciate the fact that the SNP won it back in 1999 and are in a better position now than in 2003 but you have to remember that this is a Tory seat since time begun and when the party starts to lose seats like this then the Tory party has serious problems indeed.
I'll be the first to admit I am wrong if Morgan wins GUN but I feel we will keep the three seats that the party has.
Out of interest, you suggest that the Tories will have sixteen list and 3 Constituency, making nineteen in total. Where do you see us picking up? South? Highlands? Glasgow? Ok, not the last one
Jeff, regarding Purvis, the story is a well known rumour that he was cought in the grounds of parliament giving oral sex to the SNP press officer. It also led to George Reid refering nearly calling him Jeremy Pervert.
J
You make a strong case Alan, I didn't realise GUN was so staunchly Tory. Sorry to be picky, but it can't really be a Tory seat since time begun if it was lost in 1999. And also lost in Westminster 2001.
And pre-1999 is solely Westminster years so of course the SNP were in the distance back then. On a level playing field it is 1-1 with the 'decider' in 2007.
It would be foolish to think that GUN is entirely unaffected by a bolstered SNP vote and a somewhat crumbling Tory vote.
I do admit I didn't fully account for Alex Fergusson seeming like an extremely electable, decent guy. And being a popular sitting MSP is always a formidable barrier. (Says I with Malcolm Chisholm as my local MSP!)
Anyway, time will tell I suppose.
As for the 16 regional Tories. The split of SNP and Labour FPTP wins in many regions has helped you out a lot here -
Lothian - Gavin Brown
Glasgow - Bill Aitken
Central - Margaret Mitchell & Graham Simpson
Highlands - Mary Scanlon & Jamie McGrigor
MS&F - Murdo Fraser, Liz Smith & Ted Brocklebank
NE - Alex Johnstone, Nanette Milne & David Davidson
South - Derek Brownlee, John Lamont & Murray Tosh
West - Annabel Goldie
Re: Anonymous
Crikey! With me being such a fan of Big Brother and all things low brow, I am shocked I never heard about that.
I don't know if you could technically call him a pervert for such an act, but he would certainly be more than a little red-faced if it is true.
I have checked Google and there is not a single mention of it. Thanks for passing it on anyway. Forgive me if I remain sceptical...
Alan,
I did a quick check on what the effect would be with Jackson losing and Alex winning, after considering the regional vote.
Jackson losing = Labour +1, Tory -1 (result doesn't affect 2nd vote)
Fergusson winning = No change as FPTP is mirrored by changes in the regional list vote.
So the Fergusson thing is all much of a muchness if my figures are close to accurate. But I don't see the jury coming back anytime soon on that one!
I agree that it was a slight exaggeration on the GUN being a tory seat since time began but it is a Tory stronghold. And if we are being picky, was actually won in 2001 but lost in 2005 on changed boundaries. This discussion could go on for a bit huh?
Two Tory list in Central? Seriously?
I agree with the rest with the exception of another Tory list in the West - Jackson.
Not only do I see you getting 2 MSPs in Central, but I see you getting them in the 1st and 4th rounds of voting so I make it a certainty.
(1) SNP should win a few FPTP seats from Labour. Labour will still get 0 regional MSPs. SNP will drop from 3 to 2 regional MSPs.
(2) The SSP are crumbling, I don't see them winning a seat here.
(3) I have also gone against John Swinburne winning his seat back. Maybe this is a bit harsh on the man, but I really don't think he did too much during the past 4 years.
Anyway, that frees up 3 seats and this is a region where the Lib Dems polled 5.89% in 2003. (Not that the Tories did that much better at 9.17%).
Even if I reconsidered the SSP and SCCUP showing, the Conservatives would still get 2 seats.
Lucky old Graham Simpson it seems!
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