Pale green parliament

The latest poll from ICM doesn't hold any major changes. The SNP are holding firm with a 5 point lead over Labour, Lib Dems have had no real movement and the Tories have had a nice wee increase to move more or less in line with the Libs.

So no real change.

But the potentially worrying result of this poll is that the independents seem to be being squeezed out. Solidarity not making a big splash and the SSP dows to a couple of seats according to ICM. But the biggest change could be with The Green Party. The Greens were predicted to get 7 seats in my poll, based simply on the fact that the world is falling apart at the seams with hurricanes, floods, warm winters, cold summers and generally bizarre weather all over the world. This doesn't seem to have translated into votes for the Green party as one (that is, me) would have suspected. The Scotsman reports that the Greens have been unable to maintain the 6% voting threshold to get the one seat in each constitutency.

Now, I would say Lothian is an exception given this is Robin Harper's stomping ground and the party reeceoved 12.4% last time around. So, assuming that the Greens did miss out and only have Robin representing them, how would this affect the regional vote? What list MSPs would gain from the green demise?

Well, I am using the latest polls as a guide for how the second round of voting will go and also using local trends from the 2003 results to account for strong Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Tory regions etc. And I make it that the changes would be as follows....

Lothian - Robin Harper elected and SNP would get an extra MSP at the expense of the 2nd green candidate
Glasgow - No green MSP in my results
Central - SNP would get an extra MSP at the expense of the green candidate
H&I - No green MSP in my results
MS&F - SNP would get an extra MSP at the expense of the green candidate
NE - Tories would get an extra MSP at the expense of the green candidate
South - SSP would get an MSP at the expense of the green candidate
West - Lib Dems would get an MSP at the expense of the green candidate


So, pretty interesting really. The Greens having a shocker could potentially hand SNP 3 extra MSPs and the Labour party none. Of course, this also means that if there are some slight errors in my predictions for the regions, it is SNP who is most likely to profit.

Given my earlier post on overall voting results, this takes SNP to within 3 seats of Labour in the race for largest party. I maintain that this blog holds back from awarding SNP the tight seats, erring on the side of Labour so, the bottom line is, it's going to be a very tight race!

But is it possible, that the greatest threat to mankind is being forgotten in the excitement of McConnell vs Salmond?