Prediction - Mid Scotland and Fife

OK, so no offence to any Fifers out there but this is a really boring region as I make it that there are no changes in any FPTP constituencies.

John Swinney, Roseanna Cunningham and Keith Brown should all be pretty safe for the SNP.

Iain Smith has managed to find a lovely little Lib Dem niche in North East Fife. He fought off Ted Brocklebank in 2003 with a comfortable margin and SNP finishing a fairly distant 3rd. Iain has been MSP here for 8 years and I can't imagine there being a change to that.

SNP voters have a better chance of getting an extra regional MSP with Iain Smith winning here rather than Ted so voting for Iain Smith isn't the craziest decision to make. However, with Iain looking guaranteed to win, a strong 2nd place to set the SNP up for 2011 may be the most sensible long term move.


There's really not much else that can be said about Mid Scotland and Fife. Roseanna Cunningham qwill be feeling the heat given the very slim majority she is defending against Liz Smith. Tactical voting by Labour/Lib Dem people in the area could unseat her but she is (surely) too popular among constituents to come second.

Similarly, Keith Brown has the Labour candidate breathing down his neck as Keith is also defending a slim majority. If I could find out anywhere on the net who the Labour candidate actually is I could give more thought on this but alas, the information cannot be found.

Notable conservatives making a challenge include Peter Lyburn (future Tory leader apparently) and Murdo Fraser (a bit more likely). I can imagine exchanges in North tayside between Mudrdo and John (Swinney) would be rather tasty. I do love a good head to head after all. I don't see any FPTP wins in Mid Scotland and Fife though.


But as far as tactical voting is concerned, there is not much to speak of as SNP can challenge everywhere here.

The only notable exception perhaps is Stirling where the 2003 result was -

Labour (Sylvia Jackson) 10,661
Tory (Brian Monteith) 7,781
SNP (Bruce Crawford) 5,645

But with brian Monteith being replaced by the less well known (but ironically probably more likeable) Bob Dalrymple. There's no reason why the SNP shouldn't be seen as the main challengers here. I do suspect there could be a scalp here but it's just a shame that the Tory and SNP votes are split so much. My main hope is that most Tories are tired of Dr Jackson and prefer a new face in Stirling. My sample of one for the area (my Dad) so far suggests this may well be the case.

One of the main reasons being Sylvia Jackson went to campaign at the house, my stepmother answered the door and Dr Jackson asked "Is the man of the house available at the moment?" Not the best way to win friends I would have thought....!



My regional assessment of the area, based largely on the recent ICM poll, suggests that the result will be...

SNP 2 seats (Bruce Crawford and Tricia Marwick) with 30% of the vote

Lib Dems 1 seat (Alex Cole Hamilton) with 14% of the vote

Conservatives 3 seats (Murdo Fraser, Liz Smith and Ted Brocklebank) with 18% of the vote

Greens 1 seats (Mark Ruskell) with 8.5% of the vote




Feel free to challenge my opinions!