Prediction - South Scotland

" And nothing really happens. Nothing happens at all. The needle returns to the start of the song and we all sing along like before. And we'll all be Labour tonight, and Labour tomorrow..."


Sorry, that just washed over me there, I was looking at my expected South of Scotland results and it struck me how little change there seems to be. I just really hope I am underestimating how well the SNP will do this time...


Ayr - Two horse race between John Scott of the Tories and (someone) of the Labour party. Finally we have a real reason to tactically vote!

A win for the Labour candidate will result in zero regional MSPs for Labour.

A win for John Scott will still result in zero regional MSPs for Labour.

Not only that, but a win for John Scott will increase the SNPs chances of gaining an extra MSP compared to if Labour were to win. (As a Labour win would probably give one extra Tory regional MSP and leave one less for the other parties)

So, with the above in mind, SNP in Ayr get behind John Scott for some tactical voting and personal gain.


Carrick, Cumnock and Doone Valley - Cathy Jamieson is the strong favourite here and, personally, I hope she wins it as it will mean more jokes from Only An Excuse about her.

Just joking, I think Cathy Jamieson has a tough job and has had a damn good crack at it. I'm glad she is in a safe seat and not edging out an SNP heavyweight. (Though of course I am sure Adam Ingram would do a cracking job for the SNP if he was to win here).

Actually, I stopped at a service station on my way down to Wales to do the 3 Peaks Challenge last year. Cathy Jamieson was there also just minding her own business getting some food at the restaurant. 4 young Scottish guys moseyed in with that ned waddle that only such kids can do. One shouted "Hoah! You're Cathy Jamieson! You got me a year in jail by the way!" in a half threatneing, half joking way. She was loving the banter, laughing through the embarrassment and saying something like "I'm sure it wasn't all my fault" (I can't remember exactly). Anyway, I was very impressed, most MSPs would have struggled mixing with actual people in such a scenario. Cathy showed a mix of character and class.

No tactical voting required. Cathy to walk it and hopefully SNP's Adam to finish 2nd.



Clydesdale/Cunninghame South - 2 constituencies in 1 here as they both should have easy Labour wins with SNP finishing an easy second. Hopefully not, but that's how I'm seeing it based on the numbers and my natural caution.

No tactical voting, SNP to push for wins despite probable second places.


EDIT: Due to some comments (see below) and some digging around, I decided to not be lazy and split these two up.

I still think Cunninghame South will go to Labour but Clydesdale, thanks to the effort of Aileen Campbell, may very well go to SNP. I did spot her enthusiastic chat on www.alba.org.uk and, now that her potential has been backed up by a constituent (see comment below) I thought I would post her chat up here for all to see...

Upon her selection, Aileen Campbell said: "I am absolutely delighted to have received the nomination to be the SNP's candidate for Clydesdale. Clydesdale is an incredibly beautiful and diverse constituency and I am very proud to have the opportunity to serve the people here. I hope to bring a great deal of energy and enthusiasm into my political campaign and to show the people of Clydesdale that the SNP is the only real alternative to New Labour. We are not just another political party, but one that cares about the people of Scotland and one that wants to make a genuine difference to society by regaining Scotland's sovereignty. One in four children and one in five pensioners live in poverty, we have been dragged into an illegal war on Iraq by Tony Blair and now he and New Labour want a new generation of expensive and dangerous nuclear power stations built in Scotland. Closer to home, the roads and the transport systems in the constituency are a disgrace. I want to bring big changes to Clydesdale, I want to engage with the people, and to listen and act upon their concerns. The SNP can win Clydesdale and my campaigning starts now."

I think a large crush is developing here... (but then, the run up to Valentine's Day always has me a bit mushy)


Dumfries - Hmm, an interesting one here. I'd love to be voting in a constituency like this.

You see, Labour held it in 2003 with a slim majority over the Tory's David Mundell. The Tory candidate is now Murray Tosh and the SNP (who finished a distant 3rd in 2003) have placed the lively Mike Russell into the mix.

So without Mike, I would have said tactically vote for the Tory candidate but I think Mike has to be in with a shout here given his profile and the possible disenchantment with some current Labour MSPs who don't seem to do too much. (I have no idea if Elaine Murray is one such MSP)


Make it about Labour vs SNP, and back Mike Russell, hopefully picking up Tory votes along the way.



East Lothian - Iain Gray, edged out in 2003 by David McLetchie, is back to stand in this constituency after Lord John Home Robertson decided not to stand again. It should be an absolute walk in the park for the man. Potential future Labour leader perhaps....? And sooner rather than later even....?

Note that it is rumoured that Mr Home Robertson has been offered a Life Peerage in exchange for standing down from the Scottish Parliament. Some old habits die hard I suppose...

Labour had a 26% majority with the remaining votes pretty much split 3 ways. No tactical voting required.


Galloway & Upper Nithsdale - This seat is currently held by Alex Ferguson. Personally I thought he would have had enough on his plate guiding Manchester United to another Premiership success, *chortle chortle*

Anyway, yes, the Conservatives currently hold this one but it is number 1 on the SNP target list given the 2003 results. And basically, that's all I need to know, if they were so close last time, with the Conservatives not picking up much ground and the SNP doing really well in the polls, this should be a win for Alasdair Morgan, barring any great shocks or moments of madness. It will be a sweet one for Alasdair who missed out by 99 votes last time.

No tactical voting required, one of many SNP gains in 2007


Roxburgh and Berwickshire - This consituency appears to be a 2-horse race between Lib Dem and the Tories. The conservative candidate John Lamont has been reselected and appears to be fighting tooth and nail to win the seat from sitting MSP Euan Robson. By my reckoning, both parties will finish with the same number of MSPs either way. A win or a loss for the Tories will have the same Conservative MSPs in Holyrood unless something bizarre occurs in the second vote.

No tactical voting required really, unless the Lib Dem regional MSP is someone controversial.


Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale - Not only does this constituency have the best name and also boast the most decorated candidate in Labour's Lady Catherine Maxwell Stuart, 21st Laird of Traquair but T, E and L must also be the tightest race in the country.

Held by the Lib Dems Jeremy Purvis, this is target seat number 2 for SNP, number 3 for the Tories and number 6 for Labour. A four way stromash!

I've given the nod to Christine Grahame, basically because the 4-way nature of the seat prevents tactical voting and SNP are flying much higher in the polls since 2003. Anything could happen and this one could be a pretty nasty slug-fest as the May 3rd approaches. I just hope all the candidates keep their cool. Well, mostly I hope Christine keeps her cool but it's always best if everyone plays fair, right?




As for the regional result, well it's very close here with the last regional seat having differences of only a few hundred votes between five parties (the 4 main ones and the SSP). Crucially, it is the Lib Dems who pick up that 7th seat in my analysis but it just shows that every 2nd vote does count.

The 7 regional seats go to.....

Mike Russell and Adam Ingram of SNP with 24.5% of the vote.

An as yet nameless Lib Dem candidate with 10.7% of the vote.

Derek Brownlee, John Lamont and Murray Tosh of the Tories with 23.6% of the vote.

Rosemary Byrne of the Greens with 6.9% of the vote. (EDIT: My mistake, R Byrne is of course SSP, this seat will go to Chris Ballance of the Greens)