Prediction - West of Scotland

The West of Scotland, another area that was a clean sweep for the Red army in 2003. Some interesting names in here, Jackie Baillie, Ross Finnie, Duncan MacNeil, Jackson Carlaw, Hugh Henry, Bill Wilson, David Whitton, Jean Turner and Wendy Alexander.

I'll be totally honest, the thought of Wendy Alexander as First Minister is only marginally less exciting than the thought of an SNP government. I daresay (and I should perhaps whisper this) if she was touted now as the next leader and rumoured to be instated sooner rather than later, then I think Labour would get a bump in the polls faster than Wendy can actually speak (which I've been told is very fast indeed).

I have considered the "anyone but Labour" mentality, and accepted it, but "anyone but Jack" isn't so bad an outlook either in my view. No offence to the guy, he tries his best. But therein lies the rub.


Either way, blasting a hole in the Labour fortress of West Scotland wouldn't be a bad thing for Scottish politics at all...


Clydebank and Milngavie - Des McNulty (sitting Labour MSP) vs Gil Paterson (SNP stalwart). Despite a large majority for Labour, I see this as being too close to call actually. Gil is a stronger candidate than in prior years and though Clydebank probably has a few staunch Labour areas, I think Milngavie might be in the mood for a change aswell as other parts of the constituency. Both contenders look like similar sorts of guys, decent, down-to-earth types so, yes, difficult to find an angle on this one.

One easy thing is, no tactical voting is required if you want an SNP win as it is a straight two-man race.


Cunninghame North - That pesky Campbell Martin might ruffle a few SNP feathers here as he is standing as an independent.

Campbell was the guy who criticised John Swinney's leadership for a prolonged period, ultimately resulting in expulsion from the party. I can only see him taking votes from the SNP and, perhaps crucially, may well take enough votes to give Allan Wilson a relatively easy ride to victory.


Dumbarton - Jackie Baillie should walk this one for Labour in my eyes. She seems a popular, likeable lady and I'm sure has enough support to get through unscathed.

And she was born in Hong Kong. Interesting...


No tactical voting required here. SNP to finish second I'd say.


Eastwood - You know, if you put 4 shapes in a row, a circle, a square, a star and a triangle and then ask someone to pick one, the majority of people will go for the star. It catches the eye easier as it has more points to it and is just more interesting on the face of things without digging any deeper.

Jackson Carlaw is a star in my eyes. I don't know anything about the man but his name just leaps off the page, it is the political equivalent of The Unbearable Lightness of Being which my eyes somehow get drawn to everytime I walk into Waterstones or Borders. I'd vote for him without even thinking about it.

Now add the fact that Eastwood is the Tory party's 4th target seat and Mr Carlaw is apparently the rising star (there's that word again) in Scottish Tory circles. I think he's my tip for Tory success story of the night.

Interestingly, a win here for Jackson would lead to Annabel Goldie only scraping her regional seat on the seventh round. Given my dodgy numbers work and large margin of error, she is by no means safe. I wouldn't wish an embarrassing exit on Annabel though. A Conservative blood-bath from May 4th onwards is something I'm kind of looking forward to.


Greenock and Inverclyde - It's easy to forget that Ross Finnie is a regional list MSP. He seems to get everywhere so I just assumed he had a constitutency all of his own somewhere. Not so seemingly, and he goes up against Duncan MacNeil in Greenock and Inverclyde. Technically this is a safe Labour seat but I don't see why Ross can't give Duncan a run for his money.

I really don't like to bad mouth people (no honestly, I don't) but from what I've seen on the media Duncan MacNeil hasn't exactly covered himself in glory thus far in the campaign which can only help Mr Finnie's plight.

SNP fans should consider tactically voting for Ross Finnie, freeing up a regional list seat that the SNP could grab.


Paisley North - Wendy Alexander to win this seat with an arm tied behind her back, eyes closed and hopping on one leg.

SNP voters, make sure to get down to those booths to drop off your 2nd vote.



Paisley South - On the other hand....

Hugh Henry is the sitting MSP here. He faces not only the challenge of SNP's Fiona McLeod but also the challenge of independent Clive Fairweather.

This is only no. 11 on the SNP target list based on 2003 figures and the challenge of Clive could help or could hinder the SNP. I don't know too much about Mr Fairweather but from alba.org.uk:

On the 26 th August 2006, Clive Fairweather said he would contest Paisley South against Deputy Justice Minister Hugh Henry unless the Exectutive adressed the problem of persisten young offenders. Henry was responsible for shutting down the South-Lanarkshire based Airborne Initiative which was an alternative to prison for 18 - 25 year olds.

Difficult to tell how strong this challenge will be, but with such a tight race, it is a welcome addition to the fold (I hope).

Fiona McLeod to run this one very tight indeed against the deputy minister for justice. No tactical voting required unless Clive is seen as the main challenge.


Strathkelvin and Bearsden - Moments of true brilliance happen in this constituency. Jean Turner won here at the last Holyrood election. Jo Swinson won here in the last Westminster election. And I was born here in February 1980.

This year, however, heavyweight David Whitton of Labour will stand in what is usually a happy hunting ground for the Labour party. Expect a strong showing from both SNP and Lib Dem but they may well take votes from each other.

I can't see David doing anything other than winning unfortunately. And neither Lib Dem nor SNP are clear 2nd favourites so tactical voting just wouldn't work either. Might aswell vote SNP and cross your toes.

BREAKING NEWS on the 12th of Feb (my birthday, told you it was a special day) has it that Jean Turner is seeking a second term as the local MSP for Strathkelvin and Bearsden. This shakes up everything and surely makes Jean as equal favourite with David Whitton. Therefore, I recommend that SNP people, and Lib Dem and Tory, back Jean to keep Labour at bay.


West Renfrewshire - An interesting one to finish off with. A 3 way horse race between Annabel Goldie, Patricia Godman (Labour MSP) and Bill Wilson (SNP challenger). It's bloody difficult to call actually. Annabel Goldie does come over very well in the press, SNP are on a high right now and you can never write off a sitting Labour MSP in the West of Scotland so, finally, I'm copping out and not going to call it.

No tactical voting though, come on Bill!





As for my take on the regional MSPs who will get through here. My reckoning is...

SNP to take 4 seats - Stewart Maxwell, Gil Paterson, Ken Gibson and Bill Wilson with 29% of the vote.

Ross Finnie to get the Lib Dem seat unless he manages to win his Greenock constituency. Lib Dems to poll 12.9% in the second vote here.

Annabel Goldie to squeak through on the 7th round as previously discussed. Tories polling 14.2% for this one.

And the Greens to get one MSP with 7.7% of the 2nd vote this time around.


Wow it's exciting stuff!