Predictions - Glasgow

The millstone around the SNP's neck, the unfair advantage on election day, the deep-seated psyche sitting in Scotland's largest city that opposition parties are (quite literally) waiting to watch die out. I am of course referring to the seemingly immovable position of FPTP Labour MSPs in Glasgow seats.

When I drew up this Excel spreadsheet to assess how SNP could win this election, it was rather depressing to bring up my First Past the Post tab and see a clean sweep in Glasgow (not to mention Central and West of Scotland, save for Denis Canavan at Falkirk West).

This is the stranglehold that the SNP needs to bust a hole in if they are to have any chance of being the largest party in Holyrood. I know that's perfectly obvious to most who will read this but it deserves underlining (which I would do if I knew how to work this Blog thing, stay with me folks)

SNP are so far back in some seats given the 2003 numbers that I just can't see the breakthrough coming this year, and to be honest, I don't know enough about places like Anniesland (28% majority), Baillieston (43% majority), Maryhill (30% majority), Shettleston (38% majority) and Springburn (44% majority) to really give SNP voters any hope of a change.

But in terms of tactical voting, SNP come second the majority of the time in Glasgow so there's no reason to think that backing a random Tory, Lib Dem or orange Solidarity candidate could unseat anyone here.

I have Nicola Sturgeon down as being able to defeat Gordon 'two jobs' Jackson as she was mightily close last time. Govan is target seat number 7 on the SNP listing based solely on 2003 results after all. However, I see Margaret Curran, Patricia Ferguson, Frank MacAveety etc etc all returning for another 4 years.


So, in terms of tactical voting, if you live in Glasgow just vote SNP 1st vote and 2nd vote and, I don't know, go to church twice as often perhaps and hope/pray soemthing gives!


Note however that this could be the sporting equivalent of giving someone a 2-0 headstart. Such a ploy often makes the 'losing' team try all the harder to make the difference up so it's not all doom and gloom for the Glaswegian SNP if you want to be a bit deluded and see it my way.