Predictions - Central

Well, similarly to Glasgow, this is another Labour heartland though with a ticker that is somewhat more susceptible to large scares.

It might not get the full fatal heart attack on May 3rd but I reckon it will at least need a bypass. Let's run through what's going on down Central way....


Airdrie and Shotts - Easy hold for Labour's Karen Whitefield is expected in this redder than red constituency. SNP are the only other possible winners.

No tactical voting required. But some serious crossing of fingers is.


Coatbridge and Chryston - Could it be? Jean Turner the second?

Julie McAnulty is standing as an independent in protest at the closure of hospitals but she is definitely not doing this on a whim. She has worked very closely with Jean Turner, Andy Kerr and Lewis McDonald in talks on hospital closures. Labour pushed ahead with he closures despite the protests and this, seemingly, has prompted Julie to stand. Not to mention the fact that the local MSP ABSTAINED on the question of whether to close local hospital Monklands. That's an MSP's salary well spent don't you think....?

For me, abstention suggests you have no feelings either way on the subject, which could make sense for some MSPs on particular votes. But on the question of a hospital closing in an MSP's own constituency, an abstention in such a vote by the local MSP should be closely followed by a resignation and perhaps even a public flogging.

Public feeling on this issue is expected to be fierce and I can only see Julie finishing 1st or 2nd. With that in mind, I would suggest SNP back Julie McAnulty to dislodge the local labour candidate.


Cumbernauld and Kilsyth - Ahh, Andrew Wilson, wherefore art thou? With your intelligent comments about how Scottish people should (quite rightly) support England in all major sporting events. I am always cheering on Tiger Tim, Rooney and Freddy Flintoff. The only time my security in this issue is dented is when England play San Marino and I just think, wouldn't it be great if the minnows managed to win here. But I'd think the same if it was Brazil or Italy playing so that's not anti-English at all.

Anyway, back on track...

Andrew Wilson ran Cathie Craigie very close indeed in 2003, 520 votes down at the end. It was a tough blow for the SNP to lose someone of Mr Wilson's calibre and (unless there were issues I'm unaware of) it made a mockery of their regional list selection process.

But in 2007, this is SNP's 3rd most achievable target seat based on 2003 figures. I have checked out Jamie Hepburn's website (Jamie being the SNP candidate this year). He seems like an immensely likeable guy and with one of his blogs he just about managed to win me over on the 'make university free' debate which, i can assure you, takes some doing. Bloody lazy students...

Here is Jamie's website - http://www.520votes.blogspot.com/

No tactical voting required, SNP should win if the party stays in front in the polls.


East Kilbride - Andy Kerr territory, easy victory for Labour.

Linda Fabiani expected to come 2nd (and be back in Holyrood via regional list votes), no tactical voting required.


Falkirk East - Will the "Ewing" factor make a difference here? We have Cathy Peattie going head to head with Annabelle Ewing. A really popular Labour MSP against an extremely hardworking ex-Westminster MP. Tough shout this one. Guarding against getting too excited, I think that the following quote from alba.org.uk highlights why Cathy will just shade this one...

At the 2003 election she was one of only ten Labour MSPs to increase her percentage vote and at plus 7.00 % was surpassed only by Jack McConnell

Or was it just cos there was no competition last time around?


Falkirk West - First of all, Denis Canavan is a massive loss to the parliament. It's understandable why he is standing down as he has had such genuinely tragic bad luck in his family's private life. The people supposedly "in the know" see this as an easy win for Labour. But SNP won the council elections so it may not be such a walk in the park after all. A lot will depend on who stands for Labour. For now, I am giving it to the red corner but Michael Matheson (SNP candidate) will be very hopeful of a nationalist gain.

SNP to fight a very tight race, no tactical voting required.


Hamilton North and Bellshill - 33% margin last time for Michael McMahon. Strong SNP candidate of Alex Neil expected to finish second easily and gain a seat on the regional vote.

No tactical voting required.


Hamilton South - Tom McCabe, with his 23% majority will be expected to win this one. SNP with a strong second or, dare I say it, a surprise scalp thanks to tireless efforts from Christine McKelvie.

No tactical voting required.


Kilmarnock and Loudon - A mere 4% margin for Margaret Jamieson in 2003 and with all other variables remaining in place but for a large swell for SNP in opinion polls, Willie Coffey is expected to romp home to victory. Assuming his doctor says it is ok for him to do any romping at all that is.

It would be a poignant victory for Willie as his brother, who stood for the seat in 2003 and was narrowly defeated, died last year. Their sister holds the local ward, gaining a 5.6% swing from Labour at the last election. (Info gained from alba.org.uk)

SNP to win the seat, no tactical voting required.


Motherwell and Wishaw - Despite the current Labour MSP being AWOL and not particularly popular with the national (or should that be international) campaign team, our dear leader (Jack McConnell) is expected to win handsomely.

No tactical voting required, as amusing as it would be for there to be a scalp here, it won't be happening




So, ok, maybe not that gaping a hole in the Labour armoury here by my reckoning but when it comes down to a 50/50, i tend to side with the status quo (Labour) as I want my results to be anything other than the stuff of fantasy. So where I predict an SNP win it's pretty much guaranteed whereas a few of the Labour holds are probably more rockier than I give them credit for. Alas, my local knowledge is just not up to scratch in some constituencies so feel free to leave a comment or two.