Lyon vs Mather
I will really keep my eye on this one over the next few months. Infact, I'm tempted to fill in a subscription for the local Argyll & Bute newspaper(s) to see how nasty this election scrap gets. (Yes, I typed that with twisted glee).
The reason why I think it could get nasty is that Jim Mather is becoming a high profile SNP player and will be very keen to win FPTP rather than have to rely on the regional vote. The constitutency is Lib Dem territory so George Lyon won't be keen to let this one slip through the liberals' fingers. They have very few target seats so any seats lost probably won't be made up elsewhere.
And, as for the spice/nastiness, here are some key facts surrounding this one:-
George Lyon was involved in an unsavoury incident involving the attempted blocking of condolences and speeches in honour of the late SNP member Winnie Ewing.
George is also the MSP who claimed the highest level of expenses in 2004/05. I have scoured the internet but I have found no case for the defence from Mr Lyon himself. I suspect in this instance that the silence is deafening. Times are hard for self-employed farmers after all...
(Incidentally, at 10m GBP a year, allowances and expenses incurred by all MSPs leaves a very sour taste in the mouth indeed. Reminds me of one of their first bits of business in parliament, giving themselves a payrise. And a medal.)
Though I have no specific examples at my disposal, Jim Mather seems the type to give as good as he gets so as the rhetoric increases and the adrenalin kicks in, this one is sure to hit boiling point by late April.
EDIT: I just hope I am reading this correctly though. SNP finished 2nd in 1999, 3rd in 2003 and 4th in 2005. Maybe they have no chance of taking it after all if the Argyll & Buters are set in their Lib Dem ways. If anyone knows anything about this seat, please leave a comment helping me out.
But then, the more people know about silly things like this (which seem to be par for the course for Mr Lyon), then maybe there is hope after all
http://fibdems.blogspot.com/2007/01/argyll-fibdem-charade.html
This one is worth a read too for those who are interested - http://fibdems.blogspot.com/2006/06/nice-jobs-if-you-can-get-them.html
Labour at war with itself over Welsh NHS
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6 comments:
I regard this as one of the most extraordinary seats in Holyrood in terms of electoral arithmetic. Although George Lyon holds the seat for the Lib Dems, it was the SNP who topped the regional list voting, with the Lib Dems 4th in 2003!
I believe that this is natural SNP territory and that the Lib Dems hold onto the seat as the electorate are fearful that by switching from Lyon to Mather (both stood in 2003) they would let in the Tories or even Labour.
I also think that because historically the Lib Dems have been strong supporters of "home rule" an SNP supporter would have been reasonably happy to support them. It may well be that the anti-referendum stance of Nicol Stephen may be enough for many SNP supporters in a seat like this to refuse to support Lyon this time on the grounds that supporting him is no better than supporting the Tories or Labour.
As a last point the SNP held Argyll at Westminster from 1974 to 1979. I believe if they can win it eventually at Holyrood it will move rapidly into the safe SNP column at future elections.
You make a very interesting point JPJ2, but even if the H&I are an SNP region (as shown by the regional vote) it doesn't necessarily transpire that an individual constitutency will be the same.
Look at the Lothian 2nd vote which Labour took with a 33% majority over SNP in 2003, but this region has a Tory heartland, a Lib Dem heartland and now even SNP are expected to take a few seats. It all depends on the personalities so maybe George Lyon being a local man is counting heavily in his favour here.
I totally agree with your point about home rule and Nicol Stephen etc. I really think they've shot themselves in the foot there by seemingly dismissing a referendum.
I didn't know about SNP holding Argyll in '74 to '79. Granted that was a while ago but the base may well still be there to work with some Jim Mather.
Any other comments, feel free to add them!
Hi Jeff,
Thanks for your reply and all your efforts.
The list vote is actually the list vote for the people in that constituency not for H&I in total. That is why I consider it so extraordinary. 27,948 people voted for constituency candidates and 28,130 voted in that self-same constituency for parties on the list. The slight difference in votes is presumably because a few people could not bring themselves to vote for any constituency candidate.
I will probably comment on 1 or 2 other seats when I have a moment.
My word, you are of course correct. I should have realised you would have known of a possible constitutency/region anomaly given that you look into '74 election data!
SNP may have come first in the 2nd vote in 2003 but given that they received only 21.85% with Labour, Tory and Lib Dem each getting 20%, 20% and 19% respectively, it is not a clear SNP stomping ground on this basis alone.
It looks a bit like there were a lot of people who voted Lib Dem with their first vote and then Greens with their 2nd with SNP, Labour and Tory mostly doing a double vote for their party. There was little evidence of tactical voting by Tories or Labour which is good for SNP. However, there will need to be many wavering Lib Dem voters for Jim Mather to stand a chance.
If you are right in your theory about the electorate fearful of letting in Labour or Tories then Mather should win as a switch from Lyon to Mather would make little difference to the Tory/Labour chances. Mather would win with enough of a swing.
Overall I agree, this is one extremely fascinating struggle. I look forward to further comments.
Also, I suspect the outcome of this seat may well be ruled by the voters' feeling on the issue of the Calmac ferry service. I read the Dunnon Observer to get up to speed with what the hot topics are and time and again, the ferry issue seems to be a massive problem for the locals. Understandable given how remote they are.
And they are unhappy as their voices are not being heard. With Tavish Scott as the Transport Minister, I suspect there will be more than a few Lib Dem voters looking elsewhere for a better outcome...
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