Central Region

In 6 weeks time there will be a result, a new set of 129 MSPs to lead us and, so, I thought it about time that this blog got back to basics and tried its best to (1) predict what the make up of these 129 brave souls would be and (2) nudge voters in the direction of the best way to have an SNP administration come May 4th.

So, first up, Central:-


First Vote

Airdrie & Shotts - 2003 Result of Karen Whitefield (Labour) 57% over Gil Paterson (SNP) 21%

Karen Whitefield of Labour is the clear favourite to win here. Sophia Coyle of the SNP should come a comfortable second place.


Coatbridge & Chryston - 2003 result of Elaine Smith (Labour) 56% over James Gribben (SNP) 20%

Julie McAnulty is standing in 2007 and is a switched on, instantly likeable independent candidate who is protesting at the A&E closures across Scotland and specifically Monklands in her constituency. Another particular bugbear of Julie's aside from hospital closures is the extremely expensive PFI approach to building hospitals. (Note that PFI is used to finance plenty of other public areas).

There is a large swing to make up here if Julie has much of a chance of an upset. The only real possibility of Labour being squeezed out in this constituency is if SNP/Lib Dems/Tories etc rally around and vote for Julie. Even with the bump that the SNP are enjoying, I fear it is too much for relative unknown Frances McGlinchey to make up this time around and that is why I am suggesting backing the independent candidate.

Therefore voting for Julie McAnulty in Coatbridge is the sensible approach for those who are aiming to see a change of government.

Julie remains the underdog and therefore I have given this seat as a hold for Elaine Smith.


Cumbernauld & Kilsyth - 2003 result of Cathy Craigie (Labour) 42% over Andrew Wilson (SNP) 39%

I expect Jamie Hepburn to finish off the near-result that Andrew Wilson posted in 2003. Jamie posts on his blog pretty much every day and it is clear to see why his personality should warm the Cumbernauld and Kilsyth constituency.


East Kilbride - 2003 result of Andy Kerr (Labour) 41% over Linda Fabiani (SNP) 25%

Andy, champion of the nurses (pre-election time only) and Labour-leader in waiting is expected to win fairly comfortably here. Linda being so highly placed on the SNP 2nd vote may lead to voting patterns not altering too significantly from 2003.


Falkirk East - 2003 result of Cathy Peattie (Labour) 52% over Keith Brown (SNP) 27%

Annabelle Ewing, amongst the hardest working MPs in Westminster, is expected to take this seat for the SNP despite the large swing required.


Falkirk West - 2003 result of a Denis Canavan landslide (56% to Michael Matheson's 18% and Labour's 17%)

A very tight seat, and one which I had previously thought that Labour would take but the controversial candidature of Dennis Goldie for Labour coupled with the sustained showing of SNP at the top of the polls leads me to think aswell as hope that Michael Matheson will win this one.

Note that Dennis Goldie is a bit hot-headed, has labelled fellow councillors as Nazis and being like Harold Shipman and can also come across as homophobic, hence my labelling his nomination as controversial.


Hamilton North - 2003 result of Michael McMahon (Labour) 53% over Alex Neil (SNP) 20%

A relatively safe Labour seat. An upset is not expected and Michael should probably win this one.


Hamilton South - 2003 result of Tom McCabe (Labour) 47% over John Wilson (SNP) 23%

Christina McKelvie is pushing this seat for the SNP. Famous for being one of the eariler seats to be announced it is by no means as safe a Labour seat as it used to be. Despite this, given the large swing required by Christina and the public profile of Tom McCabe, I have to just give this one to Labour.


Kilmarnock & Loudon - 2003 result of Margaret Jamieson (Labour) 40% over Daniel Coffey (SNP) 36%

Willie Coffey is expected to win this marginal seat for SNP in May. With such a slight swing required and with the SNP riding so high in the polls, only a large scale local issue could save Labour here.


Motherwell & Wishaw - 2003 result of Jack McConnell (Labour) 54% over Lloyd Quinan (SNP) 18%

First Minister Jack McConnell to win fairly easily here over Marion Fellows of the SNP. Victory will no doubt be followed by his retiring as leader of the Labour party. His successor being one of Andy Kerr, Iain Gray or Wendy Alexander.


Second Vote

With regional voting as shown below, the following candidates would be voted into Holyrood in the following rounds of voting:

1 - Margaret Mitchell (Tory)
2 - Lib Dem candidate 1
3 - Alex Neil (SNP)
4 - Linda Fabiani (SNP)
5 - John Swinburne (SCCUP)
6 - John Pentland (Labour)
7 - Christina McKelvie (SNP)

8 - Labour candidate


Labour - 38%
SNP - 34%
Tories - 9%
Lib Dems - 8%
SCCUP - 5%
Greens - 4%
Socialist 2%


Tactical Voting

For first past the post - tactically vote for Julie McAnulty in Coatbridge and Chryston

For the second vote - no tactical voting is required. The SNP hold the 7th seat so they are the first party to lose out if Lib Dems/Tories/Labour/SCCUP get a second seat or if the Greens managed to get one seat.