Edinburgh Region

Edinburgh is a real mixed bag. Tory, Lib Dem and Labour safe seats in this region aswell as Socialist, Independent and Greens making a showing on the list vote in 2003. Annoyingly, there is no safe haven for the SNP but I expect them to make a decent showing here, as we will see...

First Vote


Edinburgh Central - 2003 result of Sarah Boyack (Labour) 32% over Andy Myles (Lib Dems) 23% and Kevin Pringle (SNP) 18%

I expect Sarah Boyack to win the seat but her vote share has gone from 14,224 in 1999 to 9,066 in 2003. However, SNP and Lib Dem seem to be battling for second place here with each taking votes from the other. There's no reason why SNP should tactically vote as they have a strong challenger in Shirley Anne Somerville who I believe has been helping to campaign for a long while now. The Lib Dems on the other hand had a late entrant to the race of Siobhan Mathers, who I also think is a strong challenger. This could be an extremely tight 3-way race if the Labour vote here has slipped more than I appreciate. Also, just to say, I personally think that Shirley Anne's spiel on why Scotland should be independent is as persuading as anything else I have read on the matter.


Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - 2003 result of Susan Deacon (Labour) 44% over Kenny MacAskill (SNP) 22%

A difficult one to call here as Kenny MacAskill's stock has risen over the past 4 years and the popular Susan Deacon is not standing here. Labour candidate Norman Murray stands in Susan's place and is somewhat embroiled in the councillor fat cat pay-off issue but despite this, the large majority of 22% is a solid base to build on.

I will still give this seat to Labour but I do hope, and a large part of me thinks, that Kenny has more than a decent shout of winning.


Edinburgh North & Leith - 2003 result of Malcolm Chisholm (Labour) 38% over Anne Dana (SNP) 19%

SNP have a strong challenge in Davie Hutchison, who regularly updates his interesting blog. Unfortunately for Davie, I see Malcolm as being too established and too popular in this constituency to be unseated.


Edinburgh Pentlands - 2003 result of David McLetchie (Tory) 37% over Iain Gray (Labour) 31%

A fairly safe seat for David McLetchie. Labour may well be the only real challengers here so a tactical vote for David would help to guarantee that Labour are frozen out.


Edinburgh South - 2003 result of Mike Pringle (Lib Dems) 32.1% over Angus MacKay (Labour) 31.6%

A wafer-thin victory for the Lib Dems in 2003 and with Donald Anderson standing in 2007, another very close race is expected here. With SNP finishing 4th the last time around this pretty much frees up voters to tactically back Mike Pringle to keep this seat a Lib Dem hold rather than a Labour gain.

Although tight, I expect Mike Pringle to hold on for a win here.


Edinburgh West - 2003 result of Margaret Smith (Lib Dems) 43% over Lord Selkirk (Conservatives) 26%

A rare safe seat for the Lib Dems in the central belt. No surprises are expected here and a tactical vote for Margaret Smith is worth considering though given the unlikelihood of Labour challenging, a vote for the SNP challenger of Sheena Clelland does not carry much risk of letting Labour in by the back door.


Linlithgow - 2003 result of Mary Mulligan (Labour) 42% over Fiona Hyslop (SNP) 35%

A marginal seat for th SNP here and for that reason alone they should be confident of taking it. I don't know much about Mary Mulligan but Fiona Hyslop has had a larger profile recently which will help her here, as well as the overall swell of opinion in favour of the nationalists.


Livingston - 2003 result of Bristow Muldoon (Labour) 44% over Peter Brown (SNP) 32%

Angela Constance (SNP candidate) made a very strong showing in the Westminster by-election caused by Robin Cook's passing. A similar showing here would have her win the seat and I expect that this will happen come May.


Midlothian - 2003 result of Rhona Brankin (Labour) 47% over Graham Sutherland (SNP) 24%

A strong challenge from local candidate Colin Beattie for the SNP but Rhona Brankin is expected to win here given the commanding majority she has to her advantage.



Second Vote

The second vote, using the latest ICM polls and regional splits based on 2003 is expected to pan out as follows.

1 - Robin Harper
2 - Margo McDonald
3 - Kenny MacAskill
4 - Gavin Brown
5 - Ian McKee
6 - George Foulkes
7 - Simon Clark

8 - Greens


SNP - 25%
Labour - 23%
Lib Dems - 16%
Tories - 15%
Greens - 11%
Margo - 10%
SSP - 2%



Tactical Voting

Quite a bit going on here then...

Vote David McLetchie of the Tories in Edinburgh Pentlands
Vote Mike Pringle of the Lib Dems in Edinburgh South
Consider voting for Margaret Smith of the Lib Dems in Edinburgh West though SNP support shouldn't be required for her to win unlike her counterpart Mike Pringle.

Note also that were a second Green MSP (Mark Ballard) to get in in Lothian, it would be at the expense of an SNP MSP.