Glasgow Region

Solid Labour territory, precious few opportunities for other parties here of course so it is really in the second vote that the real battle exists.


First Vote

Glasgow Anniesland - 2003 result of Bill Butler (Labour) 46% over Bill Kidd (SNP) 18%

The tale of 3 Bills, Bill Aitken of the Tories making up the trio. This is a solid Labour territory and I don't see any shocks despite Billy the Kidd (I bet he's never heard that one before) closing the gap for SNP.


Glasgow Baillieston - 2003 result of Margaret Curran (Labour) 53% over Lachie MacNeil (19%)

Margaret Curran is expected to win this one fairly easily. Lachie MacNeil runs a blog which is somewhat waning of late, no doubt due to furious campaigning on his part.


Glasgow Cathcart - 2003 result of Lord Watson (Labour) 39% over David Ritchie (SNP) 16%. 2005 result of Charlie Gordon (Labour) 38% over Marie Whitehead (SNP) 22%.

Given this is a Glasgow seat, the majority held by Labour is relatively low. Even still, James Dornan has his work cut out to win here. Pat Lally took 11% of the vote last time and this section could well go back to Labour if Pat isn't standing this time around.


Glasgow Govan - 2003 result of Gordon Jackson (Labour) 37% over Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) 31%

All sorts of things going on here, so I will point you in the direction of J Arthur MacNumpty's thorough and faithful following of the story: See his fifth and presumably final section of the rumbling saga involving 2 jobs Jackson (down to 1 job from May 4th), Anas Sarwar and Labour rivals standing as independents - Part 5

All in all, Nicola must surely clean up here given her effective performances and elevated status over the past 2 or 3 years.


Glasgow Kelvin - 2003 result of Pauline McNeill (Labour) 36% over Sandra White (SNP) 21%

This one could be a close race as the Lib Dems and Socialists had strong showings of 15% and 14% respectively in 2003. If these votes are moved to SNP, not to mention some disillusioned Labour types switching party or sitting this year out, then Sandra White has a strong chance of upsetting the incumbent.

I won't get carried away just yet and will still give this seat to Pauline but as I say, SNP are in with a shout here.


Glasgow Maryhill - 2003 result of Patricia Ferguson (Labour) 49% over Bill Wilson (SNP) 20%

Patricia gets a bit of a tough time for apparently being a bit on the indecisive side. This may affect her vote a little, and the Socialist vote of 16% in 2003 may well move to the SNP somewhat.

Even still, Labour should take this seat rather comfortably.


Glasgow Pollock - 2003 result of Johann Lamont (Labour) 43% over Tommy Sheridan (SSP) 28%

A fairly safe Labour seat. Chris Stephens has little chance of causing an upset here for the SNP and the only plausible chance would be for Tommy Sheridan to somehow gather cross-party support to oust the Labour incumbent.

Although he is fairly sure to be getting elected on the second vote but I would recommend voting for Tommy Sheridan in the first vote in this constituency. This not only reduces Labour MSPs by 1 but also gives SNP a good chance of taking an extra MSP on the second round of voting, given that they are next in line to take a seat as things stand. (That is, if there was an 8th round of voting, SNP would take the seat).

Update! - It transpires that Tommy is only standing in the list vote. So, that screws everything up a bit really. Johann Lamont is the clear favourite but with the SNP conference in Glasgow, the SSP vote arguably going to SNP and Labour probably struggling to get the vote out, well, it's certainly well worth casting that ballot if you are based in Pollock.


Glasgow Rutherglen - 2003 result of Janis Hughes (Labour) 46% over Robert Brown (Lib Dems) 19% and Anne McLaughlin (SNP) 14%

A safe Labour seat and new candidate James Kelly is expected to win here for Labour. Margaret Park to challenge for the SNP and I would think finish an easy 2nd over Lib Dems.


Glasgow Shettleston - 2003 result of Frank McAveety (Labour) 57% over Jim Byrne (SNP) 18%

An easy win for Frank McAveety is expected here.


Glasgow Springburn - 2003 result of Paul Martin (Labour) 59% over Frank Rankin (SNP) 16%

An easy win for Paul Martin, son of the Westminster Speaker Michael Martin. Note that Springburn is represented by father and son in Westminster and Holyrood respectively.



Second Vote

With so many Labour first past the post wins, the 2nd vote is due to be split between the remaining parties, with SNP placed to do very well. Note that it is not easy to judge how the SSP vote will be split given the introduction of SOlidarity to the political scene. Not to mention the fact that the fairly childish antics of the socialist group as a whole could well hurt them come May 3rd.

Regional voting in Glasgow as shown below, would yield the following list MSPs:

1. Bashir Ahmad
2. Lib Dem candidate
3. Tommy Sheridan
4. Sandra White
5. Bill Aitken
6. Bob Doris
7. Patrick Harvie

8. SNP



Labour - 36%
SNP - 26%
Lib Dems - 10.4%
Solidarity - 9.7%
Conservatives - 7%
Greens - 6%
SSP - 5%



Tactical Voting

The SNP are well worth voting for in every constitutency.

In the regional vote, a vote for the Greens may seem attractive for some but in this particular region, a Green MSP would probably be taking a seat away from SNP. Also, the Lib Dems are running very close to getting a 2nd list MSP at the expense of an SNP candidate.