Highlands and Islands Region

Ahh, Scotland's back garden. Skye, Shetlands, John O'Groats, Orkney. All places that I shamefully have never been to but something I plan on redressing some time very soon.

So, given that I have never been to these places, it is with a shocking arrogance that I will proceed to set an expectation as to who will win where. So of course, if I am way off base, then step in with a comment or three.


First Vote

Argyll and Bute - 2003 result of George Lyon (Lib Dems) 35% over David Petrie (Tory) 20% and Jim Mather (SNP) 20%

Of all the seats, I think this is the one that is giving me most bother. From a tactical voting point of view, Labour are out of the running and I can't see the Tories taking the seat either. But after that, I'm lost.

The possibilities are :-

George Lyon is a local man and has been MSP here for 8 years, and for these reasons has a strong advantage over the others. He will romp home as a result.

The recent issues regarding Lyon's expenses and his blocking condolences for Winnie Ewing, coupled with an aggrieved electorate regarding the CalMac issue and the Lab-Lib coalition in general are chomping at the bit for a change. Jim Mather of the SNP is well placed to profit and Jim roars home to victory.

Both of the above cancel each other out to an extent and the race is very, very tight indeed.


Of the 3 possibilities, I think I have to go with the 3rd one. And, I will give it to George Lyon, chiefly because he managed to beat Duncan Hamilton in 1999 which to me suggests he has a very strong base here and may well be just enough to see him through.


Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross - 2003 result of Jamie Stone (Lib Dems) 37% over Deirdre Stephen (Labour) 26% and Rob Gibson (17%)

With SNP in 3rd place from 2003, and Labour in 2nd, it could be argued that it makes sense to vote for the Lib Dems here. Tricky to put an X beside Mr Stone's name with the Xenophobe row so fresh in the mind.

Anyway, I don't see John McKendrick of Labour gaining much ground. Shame in a way as the guy seems like a grade A candidate with his law credentials and international experience. So backing Rob Gibson is a sensible policy for this constituency. It's just a shame that it seems a bit of a Lib Dem stronghold and I don't see Jamie Stone gathering any moss in 2007.


Inverness, East Nairn and Lochaber - 2003 result of Fergus Ewing (SNP) 31% over Rhoda Grant (Labour) 28%

An interesting seat this one. On the face of it, it should be a fairly easy hold for Fergus. He has a slight majority but with SNP higher in the polls, there should be no reason to think that he can't extend this lead.

However, the Labour candidate is Linda Stewart whose husband held the local Westminster seat since 1987. She is no doubt a well known figure in the community and if she is popular enough, then I daresay she will give Fergus a very close run.

And as much as I don't want to think about it, the Tories and Lib Dems (with their 11,000 votes) may indulge in some anti-SNP voting. Though they may also want to ensure Labour are removed as the government so here's hoping they tactifully vote the 'correct' way.

Despite the above, I expect Fergus to win this seat.


Moray - 2003 result Richard Lochhead (SNP) 46% over Mary Scanlon (Conservative) 23%

A safe SNP seat with seemingly a popular local MSP. Richard is expected to win, Mary Scanlon will be an MSP thanks to her position at the top of the Tory list vote.


Orkney - 2003 result of Jim Wallace (Lib Dems) 46% over Christopher Zawadski (Tory) 24% and John Mowat (SNP) 13%

Liam MacArthur is the lucky Lib Dem candidate who gets to fill Jim Wallace's shoes in Orkney. He should have a fairly easy ride into Holyrood here.


Ross, Skye and Inverness West - 2003 result of John Farquar Munro (Lib Dems) 43% over David Thompson (SNP) 19%

A very safe seat for the Lib Dems here. John should quite easily win this one and continue representing the area for a 3rd term. The Labour candidate, Maureen MacMillan originally retired and then said she'd stand as Labour couldn't get anyone else. I can't imagine voters will flock to the booths to elect her. And I can't imagine Maureen particularly wants them too!


Shetland - 2003 result of Tavish Scott (Lib Dems) 46% over Willie Ross (SNP) 20%

An easy hold for Tavish Scott as the Lib Dem deputy leader gets back into Holyrood with a large majority expected.


Western Isles - 2003 result of Alasdair Morrison (Labour) 47% over Alasdair Nicholson (SNP) 41%

The only H&I seat to change hands in my book, unless Jim Mather wins the coin toss that is Argyl & Bute of course.

Labour have a very slim majority here and unless Alasdair Morrison has been a particularly effective local MSP for the area, I think Alasdair Allen will win this one fairly easily for the SNP.

Note that this is the ultimate 2 horse race with the 2003 result being, Labour 5,825, SNP 5,105, Tory 612 and Lib Dems 498. It's amazing how Lib Dems get only 498 votes but just a wee jaunt up the road they have a couple of strongholds.



Second Vote

OK, well the first vote wasn't terribly exciting. Too many election battles that are already won for my liking (unless I am misreading this region of course)

So it is to the second vote that we look for some excitement. With Labour having 0 seats in this area, it is a good chance for them to decrease the effect of any losses up here in the North of Scotland.

The second vote result for H&I would be as follows, with the voting splits shown below:

1. Peter Peacock
2. Mary Scanlon
3. Rhoda Grant
4. Jim Mather
5. David Stewart
6. Jamie McGrigor
7. Rob Gibson

8. Green


SNP 31%
Labour 23%
Lib Dems 20%
Tory 15%
Green 6%
SSP 3%
Solidarity 3%


Tactical Voting

Nothing really to shout about. Note only that if the Greens get in here, it may well be at the expense of an SNP candidate.