Mid Scotland and Fife

First Vote


Central Fife - 2003 result of Christine May (Labour) 41% over Tricia Marwick (SNP) 31%

I had recently been giving this one to Labour but given that I thought I was being too cautious with regard to the seats the SNP could win I decided to give a few tight battles to the nationalists, this one included. And I think this is the kind of seat that could fall into the SNP's hands by a few hundred votes or so.

A difficult one to call really unless you have a feel for the constitutency which I certainly don't. Despite that, I see Tricia taking it.


Dunfermline East - 2003 result of Helen Eadie (Labour) 50% over Janet Law (SNP) 18%

A large majority for Labour to defend here and although it will almost certainly decrease, it should be a safe win for Helen and Labour.


Dunfermline West - 2003 result of Scott Barrie (Labour) 34% over Independent Hospital Candidate 18% and Brian Goodall (SNP) 17%

This could be a tight race, despite a fairly sizeable lead for Scott in the last election. There is no notable independent candidate standing as far as I am aware and therefore the 18% is up for grabs, arguably the majority of which will go the SNP way.

Much like Central Fife, it is almost too close to call but I will give it to Scott Barrie rather than Len Woods (SNP candidate).


Kirkcaldy - 2003 result of Marilyn Livingston (Labour) 47% over Colin Welsh (SNP) 25%

A fairly chunky lead for Marilyn to defend here. I think she will just about manage to see off Professor Chris Harvie, but another very close race in Fife is expected. I suspect the people of the Kingdom will be getting a lot of pamphlets through the door and hassle on the street as this could be the tightest region of them all.


North East Fife - 2003 result of Iain Smith (Lib Dems) 46% over Ted Brocklebank (Tory) 29%

A fairly remarkable seat where the SNP and Labour picked up only 20% of the vote last time around. So regarding SNP tactical voting, there isn't much to say as Labour have no chance and seemingly neither do the SNP going by the 2003 results.

Both Iain and Ted picked up their share of the vote in 2003 and I can imagine both guys being popular locally so I predict this is a 2-horse race between them. I have given the seat to Iain Smith in my set of numbers.


North Tayside - 2003 result of John Swinney (SNP) 45% over Murdo Fraser (Tory) 31%

A relatively easy win for John Swinney is expected despite Murdo's increased profile over the past 4 years.


Ochil - 2003 result of George Reid (SNP) 38% over Richard Simpson (Labour) 37%

A very, very tight one here. Keith Brown stands for the SNP and has some big shoes to fill as George Reid is arguably the most capable and popular MSP to date in Holyrood. Councillor Brian Fearon stands for Labour but I give this one to SNP, Keith to hold it by a slim margin.

Note that in today's Scotland on Sunday, Labour have admitted they don't fancy their chances of winning back Ochil. Maybe the Labour member was just having a bad day but the line "Ochil is pretty bad too. We don't think we're going to get it back" augurs well for the SNP's chances.


Perth - 2003 result of Roseanna Cunningham (SNP) 34% over Alexander Stewart (Tory) 32%

Liz Smith is a strong contender for the Perth constituency, coming within 48 votes of winning here in the UK election in 2001. It is certainly a straight fight between the two parties and a bit of tactical voting on the part of Labour could quite easily give this one to the Conservatives.

But Roseanna Cunningham is a strong personality in the nationalist party and I would expect her share of the vote to go up, and I also expect her to stave off Liz's strong challenge here.


Stirling - 2003 result of Sylvia Jackson (Labour) 36% over Bob Dalrymple (Tory) 26% and Bruce Crawford (SNP) 19%

A potential 3 way race here with Sylvia's share of the vote expected to fall, the Tory's to stay quite constant and the SNP to increase on their 19%.

I don't see the Conservatives winning here though and sadly, I don't see the SNP vote increasing enough to oust Sylvia this year.



Second Vote

Given the above results in the first vote, the following candidates would be voted in on the second vote assuming the vote share shown below was followed:

1 Murdo Fraser
2 Alex Cole Hamilton
3 Liz Smith
4 Bruce Crawford
5 Mark Ruskell
6 Keith Brown
7 Andrew Arbuckle

8 Ted Brocklebank

(not a good advert for equal opportunities with 1 woman making up the all white list, just noticed that there)

SNP 35%
Labour 24%
Lib Dems 17%
Tory 16%
Green 6%
SSP 1.3%


Tactical Voting

None to speak of. Infact, SNP has more to lose than gain if tactical voting is employed at all in Fife by any party.