North East Region

First Vote


Aberdeen Central - 2003 result of Lewis MacDonald (Labour) 33% over Richard Lochhead (SNP) 27%

On paper, this should be the kind of seat that the SNP should win given how strong a position they are in compared to 2003. This is after all, their 8th target seat going simply on numbers.

For some reason, and maybe I am putting too much stock in Lewis' ministerial post, but I see Labour holding on here. Clinging on infact but as we saw at Hampden against Georgia, a win's a win!


Aberdeen North - 2003 result of Brian Adam (SNP) 33% over Elaine Thomson (Labour) 32%

Elaine Thomson lost this seat in 2003 and I expect the misery to be compounded by an increased majority for Brian Adam.


Aberdeen South - 2003 result of Nicol Stephen (Lib Dems) 46% over Richard Baker (Labour) 19%

An easy win for the Lib Dem leader is expected.


Angus - 2003 result of Andrew Welsh (SNP) 44% over Alex Johnstone (Tory) 22%

An easy win for the SNP candidate is expected.

If Fife is the tightest region, Aberdeen is competing for the least surprising.


Banff & Buchan - 2003 result of Stewart Stevenson (SNP) 53% over Stewart Whyte (Tory) 21%

An easy SNP win is expected in Alex Salmond's Westminster constituency.


Dundee East - 2003 result of Shona Robison (SNP) 40% over John McAllion (Labour) 39%

A very tight race in 2003 and probably the same again given the Labour candidate is the ex-leader of the Dundee City Council. No doubt he is a well known figure in the area and his election record in Wesminster and for the council is impressive.

However, I expect Shona to benefit from the high level of SNP support at the moment and to consolidate on the 2003 result.


Dundee West - 2003 result of Kate McLean (Labour) 33% over Irene McGugan (SNP) 29%

Joe fitzpatrick of the SNP is expected to win this seat fairly comfortably. According to a Labour source (how reliable noone knows) this seat is already "a goner". To be fair, Labour's Jill Shimmi has not acquitted herself well as a local councillor by many accounts.


Gordon - 2003 result of Nora Radcliffe (Lib Dems) 38% over Nanette Milne (Tory) 24% and Alasdair Allan (SNP) 23%

Alex Salmond is standing here and is strongly expected to win this seat though it is by no means a certainty. There is a large majority to make up in this area which is certainly a bit of a Lib Dem stronghold. Add to that some tactical voting by the Tories and Labour to try to embarrass Alex by getting in on the lists (or not elected at all!) and this seat is definitely one to watch.

Regardless of the above, I am sure the good people of Gordon would not wish to humiliate Alex and I expect him to win easily.


West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 2003 result of Mike Rumbles (Lib Dems) 46% over David Davidson (Tory) 29%

A Lib Dem fortress. Mike Rumbles to win fairly easily.



Second Vote

Given the above, the second vote is expected to pan out as follows:

1 Alex Johnstone (Tory)
2 Richard Baker (Labour)
3 Alison McInnes (Lib Dem)
4 Nanette Milne (Tory)
5 Lib Dem Candidate #2
6 Marilyn Glen (Labour)
7 Maureen Watt (SNP)

8 David Davidson (Tory)


SNP 44%
Lib Dems 29%
Labour 20%
Tory 18%
Green 5%
SSP 1%


Tactical Voting

No tactical voting required in the North East.