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Friday, April 27, 2007

Another increase in another poll


A very interesting poll here from YouGov as sponsored (is that the right word?) by The Telegraph.


I have entered the recent Scotland Voice "Poll of Polls" in brackets to see movements from before but given that You Gov was the closest poll to the final result in 2003, then maybe it should be their results that should be given due consideration, rather than an average including MRUK etc

Constituency
SNP – 39 (35)
Labour –30 (31)
LibDem –15 (16)
Cons –13 (13)
Other –3
Regional List
SNP – 31 (33)
Labour –27 (28)
LibDem –11 (15)
Cons –13 (12)
Greens -9 (5)
Other –9


Sadly I don't have my Excel spreadsheet here at work so I can't transform these results into probable Holyrood seats but by the looks of things Argyll & Bute, East Kilbride and maybe even Glasgow Kelvin are very much coming into play for the SNP. Perhaps a few more Central and Fife seats possibly too....


The Greens are doing very well here too. They are pushing for their coveted 10 seats with that 9%, including a potential 3 in Lothians alone if there is a split of Labour/Lib Dem/Tory/SNP seats, which I expect there will be.


Whichever way you look at it, it is a storming result for the SNP with only 6 days to go. Only a massive gaffe or some sort of meteorite hitting Bonnybridge could stop them now.


PS It's been rumoured there is another poll out tomorrow with an even bigger lead for the SNP.

5 comments:

Scottish Toryboy said...

So who in your opinion are the Tory constituency members that will be returned?

Jeff said...

Well, I just updated my spreadsheet for the recent YouGov poll and I have to say, the Tories got 19 seats which is only 1 off your 20 which I thought was ambitious. SO there you go, and you still have a possible "i'm too embarrassed i'm voting for the Tories" Scottish boost to possibly use.

Anyway, to answer your question. 4 constituency MSPs: John Scott (Ayr), David McLetchie (Ed South), Jackson Carlaw (Eastwood) and Murray Tosh (Dumfries).

V strong chances for Derek Brownlee and Alex Fergusson, not to mention Ms Goldie herself.

Apart from that, you're at the mercy of the second vote lottery!

Chris said...

Jeff, David McLetchie is standing in Edinburgh Pentlands, not Edinburgh South. The latter is more a Labour/Lib Dem marginal, former Tory territory.

Jeff said...

Acht, I meant Ed Pentlands. I am quite partial to the odd clanger that way....

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