An anonymous post was left on one of my earlier blog items, I thought it was really interesting and I've not actually got my head around whether I disagree with it or not. But either way, it is well worth having top billing for a while:
Hi, the reason my work suggests the Tories will get 24 seats is that the average of April 2003 polls significantly underestimated the final level of Tory support in May 2003 (by 5% on the constituency and 6% on the list).
Not saying that is what will happen, just posing the question what if the polls are out this time by the same amount the were before!
Since my last post I updated the model by including the 16th April poll and removing the one at the end of March. That way I am comparing 100% April 2007 polls with 100% April 2003 polls. This is all total speculation as the current polls are all over the place, with 3 of the last 5 showing clear SNP leads and 2 showing clear Labour leads.
Average of the last 5 polls suggests -
Constituency
SNP - 35%
Lab - 32%
LD - 15%
Con - 13%
List
SNP - 34%
Lab - 30%
LD - 13%
Con - 12%
Grn - 5%
The April 2003 polls by and large had a habit of overestimating SNP and Labour support to a degree and underestimating Conservative and Liberal Democrat support.
If April 2007 polls are as wrong as April 2003 then the parties standing would be
Constituency
SNP 32%
Lab 28%
Con 18%
LD 18%
List
Lab 29%
SNP 26%
Con 18%
LD 11%
Grn 5% and some others
Odd I grant you, though perhaps not impossible if things are really close on the night that 1 party could win the constituency vote and another the regional vote
To me that suggests the following numbers in parliament
Lab 43 (-7)
SNP 38 (+11)
Con 22 (+4)
LD 17 (-)
Grn 5 (-2)
SSP/Sol 2 (-4)
Oth 2 (-2)
In answer to the point where would the extra Tories come from ? -
South, Lothians, Central and West.
Just to stress, Im not saying this will happen, I was just curious as I miss-trust the polls given their erratic nature. That all said (and from what I have as a gut feeling about Scottish politics) I wouldn't be too surprised if the result above happened after all.
This period is a psephologists dream! ; )
Labour at war with itself over Welsh NHS
1 hour ago
5 comments:
I am deeply honoured you have given my thoughts temporary top billing! ; )
No worries, hopefully you'll get some comments/agreements/disagreements (*hint hint* to anyone reading this)
Personally, I just want to find out what psephologist means...!
To be honest, I initially dismissed this, I believe the term I used was bollocks but it does in fact make sense.
I certainly believe we should have three in the Lothians and an increase in the South anyway. We also look set for a second in Central and I see no reason why not a third in the West. I would imagine that no paper will run with the idea of the Tories getting 24 seats.
Firstly psephology is the study of election results - you're offering lessons in crystal ball gazing. The YouGov poll in 2003 nearest polling day was 1% out - I'm sticking with them to be accurate and my experience on the ground tells me that Tories are voting SNP to give Labour a kicking.
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