The last set of polls (a few weeks ago now) had the following split of votes:
| SNP | 0.34 | |
| Labour | 0.27 | |
| Lib Dems | 0.13 | |
| Tory | 0.13 | |
| Greens | 0.08 | |
| Socialist | 0.02 | |
| SCCUP | 0.02 | |
This gave a result of:
| SNP | 43 |
| Labour | 41 |
| Lib Dems | 18 |
| Tories | 14 |
| Greens | 9 |
| SSP | 0 |
| Solidarity | 1 |
| Margo | 1 |
| Jean Turner | 1 |
| SSCUP | 1 |
| Total | 129 |
But tomorrow (yes, I am for once ahead of the news!), The Times will release a Populus poll showing the following voting intentions in the 1st and 2nd vote:
SNP - 34
Labour - 30
Lib Dems - 18
Conservatives - 13
Other - 6
SNP - 34
Labour - 27
Lib Dems - 18
Tories - 14
Other - 7 (Green 3)
Interestingly, The Times reports this as a drop for the SNP when infact they are holding firm at 34% from that fabulous week they had a fortnight or so ago.
The real winners from then up to now are the Lib Dems, seemingly taking votes off the Greens. Strange really as I have heard of a lot of support for the Greens, a party that I am sure are under represented in such polls. Therefore I shall be bumping their score up to 5%, still dangerously below the 6% they need to guarantee a few seats at least.
Most importantly, how does this affect the overall result. Well, with FPTP situation as previously stated in an earlier post, the Times poll above would give the following:
Lothians:
Round 1 - SNP
Round 2 - Margo
Round 3 - Greens
Round 4 - Tories
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - Lib Dems
Round 7 - SNP
Round 8 - Tories (in other words, they just miss out. By 8 votes!)
Glasgow
Round 1 - SNP
Round 2 - Lib Dems
Round 3 - SNP
Round 4 - Tommy Sheridan
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - Tories
Round 7 - SNP
Round 8 - Lib Dems (missing out on Round 7 by 40 votes)
No Greens in sight in the dear green city, seems odd somehow....
Central
Round 1 - Lib Dems
Round 2 - Tory
Round 3 - SNP
Round 4 - SNP
Round 5 - John Swinburne
Round 6 - Labour
Round 7 - SNP
Round 8 - Labour (missing out on Round 7 by around 1,400 votes)
Highlands and Islands
Round 1 - Labour
Round 2 - Tory
Round 3 - Labour
Round 4 - SNP
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - Tory
Round 7 - Labour
Round 8 - SNP (missing out on Round 7 by about 700 votes)
Mid Scotland and Fife
Round 1 - Tory
Round 2 - Lib Dems
Round 3 - Tory
Round 4 - SNP
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - Lib Dems
Round 7 - SNP
Round 8 - Tory
Another freeze-out for the Greens and, so far, they are getting a good old-fashioned pasting in this election. I still think they'll do better than 5% but I can't go against the poll's 3% too much.
North East
Round 1 - Labour
Round 2 - Tory
Round 3 - Lib Dems
Round 4 - Labour
Round 5 - Tory
Round 6 - Lib Dems
Round 7 - Labour
Round 8 - Lib Dems (missing out on Round 7 by about 1100 votes)
South
Round 1 - Lib Dems
Round 2 - SNP
Round 3 - Tory
Round 4 - Labour
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - Labour
Round 7 - Tories
Round 8 - SNP
Well, so much for the second vote allowing some of the smaller parties getting in (unless you count the Tories as a smaller party of course!)
The Conservatives did get an extra seat as a result of the Greens falling out of the running, but they are still a far cry from the 3 regional MSPs that some have suggested recently. Pie in the sky I'm afraid old chaps...
West
Ok, so this is where things are frankly silly as I have the SNP winning no FPTP seats but still commanding the largest portion of the regional votes, 33.6% to Labour's 31.8%. So something isn't quite right in the West, but we've all known that for a while (just joking to any of my Westernly friends reading this!)
Here's the results anyway:
A carve up for the Lib Dems and the SNP really -
Round 1 - SNP
Round 2 - Lib Dems
Round 3 - SNP
Round 4 - Lib Dems
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - SNP
Round 7 - Lib Dems
Round 8 - SNP (by a good 2,300 votes)
And there we have it, totalling all the top (or letting my ridiculously complex Excel spreadsheet doing it for me) gives the following final result -
| SNP | 45 (+2) |
| Labour | 41 (+0) |
| Lib Dems | 22 (+4) |
| Tories | 16 (+2) |
| Greens | 1 (-8) |
| SSP | 0 |
| Solidarity | 1 |
| Margo | 1 |
| Jean Turner | 1 |
| SSCUP | 1 |
| Total | 129 |
So still a solid position for the SNP given my highly cautious approach to their First Past the Post position. I still think that side of the polling is a misnomer given the nature of the different regions and specific spots of Scotland. But still, my results may be due a revision soon.
Most tellingly is the precarious position of the greens. A mere 3% is the difference between 9 MSPs and Robin Harper sitting all on his lonesome for 4 years.
And the best news for last, on this score, the Lib Dem and SNP coalition is the only real majority that could be formed. I wouldn't want to wake up in some late-May morning, with the SNP the biggest party but still having a Lib-Lab pact.
4 more years of Jack? It's the stuff of nightmares...
6 comments:
Your nightmares might still come true...
63 for a Lab/Lib coalition - take the Pres. Officer out, which they nor the SNP will touch with a bargepole, Ms Goldie steps up and now they're one short.
Swinburne does his job as Labour stooge, chuck a few scraps at Robin and they've got something approaching a functioning Exec.
Or maybe I am trying to play down my relentlessly optimistic outlook :)
A great site, by the way.
A fine point indeed! It was about half 1 when I finally went to bed , I forgot all about John "I'm actually a regional Labour candidate" Swinburne...
It's going to be an absolute squeaker by the looks of things!
And glad you like the site, I don't have one of those counter things so i do wonder if anyone ever passes along this way.
Hi Jeff,
There's a website called 'Statcounter'; it will show you how many people visit and how they travelled there. It's free and its very good.
Julie
I don't understand the basic premise of all this. What does it matter whether a Liberal or a Labour MSP is elected? At a fundamental level, isn't the very notion of "tactical" voting redundant this time round, with these parties, these policies, these personalities and this voting system?
The Liberals (at least at leadership level - and frankly, in my experience, at all levels) want a Lib/Lab coalition. It isn't going to help the SNP cause to have more Liberals elected. What we will need to put pressure on the Liberals to accede to the referendum is as much moral pressure as possible - in short, every single vote for the SNP will count.
Getting a higher percentage SNP vote is much more important than trying to manipulate things so that one unionist is elected rather than another.
Thanks Julie, but I tried statcounter and it seems my IT ineptitude is actually boundless! I will have a look at it again when I'm less tired.
And Anonymous, I take your point but you sound a bit fed up with the election.
First thing, it makes a very big difference that the SNP are the largest party. I know there is still a chance that there would be a Lib-Lab pact even with that but I see it as a remote one.
In my eyes:
A Lib Dems MSP is better than a Labour one, as it increases SNP's chances of being the largest party.
A Tory MSP is better than a Lib Dem one as (assuming the SNP are the largest party), the less Lib Dem MSPs there are the more say the SNP will have in coalition talks.
And an SNP MSP is better than any of them, but they can't win every seat.
I think a crucial difference between yourself and I is that I'm not too fussed about independence, so I see what you mean about a unionist MSP is just as bad as the next one, regardless of party affiliation.
Thanks for the post, you've got me thinking and, dammit, I need to get some sleep soon!
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