Putting MRUK to bed...

On the back of the recent Populus poll which I translated into Holyrood seats on Friday, aYouGov poll was released over the weekend stating that voting intentions stand at:

Populus: CON 13%, LAB 30%, LDEM 18%, SNP 34%
YouGov: CON 14%, LAB 30%, LDEM 15%, SNP 37%

And in the regional vote:

Populus: CON 14%, LAB 27%, LDEM 18%, SNP 34%, OTHER 7%
YouGov: CON 13%, LAB 28%, LDEM 13%, SNP 35%, OTHER 11%

It makes a mockery of the recent MRUK poll that two highly regarded polling companies conclude with very similar results whereas these jokers had figures seemingly pulled out of the deep blue sky (or should that be rose red sky?).

A bit of a question mark from the two polls above over just how well the Lib Dems are doing, a bit odd to have a 5% difference in the regional vote but I'm just going to split the difference by taking an average of the two.

It's also difficult to judge how the Greens will be doing. A fairly large 11% of 'Other' in the YouGov poll compared to 7% in the Populus poll. That makes a huge difference to the Greens, as many as 7 seats difference as they have a tipping point around 6.3% where they would do really well if they can just nudge themselves over that line.

I do think the Greens are under-represented here so I will swell their numbers slightly in my prediction, giving them 7% and leaving the 2% to the genuine others. In these polls people are faced with SNP, Labour, Lib Dem, Tory or Other. If the Greens were added to the list instead of being lumped in with the Others, then a more accurate picture could be obtained. Also, just to point out, the Greens received 6.9% of the overall regional vote in 2003 and polled at around 6% so a small bump isn't outrageous.


And, also, I have finally allowed my First Past the Post results to reflect the SNP's commanding and consistent lead in the polls.

I am well aware that the SNP can poll higher in the FPTP and then still not win the most constituences. Labour do have a tendency to come 1st or 4th which can lead to misleading interpretations of what the FPTP polls actually mean. But my figures of Labour 31 FPTP seats to SNP's 24 were certainly outdated so I am now calling the following for SNP:

Paisley South - Fiona McLeaod to beat the Education Minister Hugh Henry. Hugh raised his profile over the last few months and I think did a good job on the debating floor. However, SNP need only a 4.91% swing and I think this will be achieved.

Glasgow Kelvin - Sandra White to beat Labour's Pauline McNeil. Sandra's share of the vote in 1999 and 2003 has exactly matched that of the national figure. A share of the vote of 35% in 2007 would be enough to win.

West Renfrewshire - Yes, I am flip-flopping on this one. I initially thought that Annabel Goldie's increased public position would spur her on to victory here. But at the end of the day, it is an SNP marginal and is an area that the party has been focussing on winning. A lot depends on whether Labour voters abandon the Patricia Godman ship and back Annabel but I don't see that happening. Bill Wilson to win.

Edinburgh Central - I am no longer seeing Sarah Boyack winning in Edinburgh Central, I think the tide has turned against her after two terms, more to do with the national picture than anything personal but it is a bell-weather seat and the winds have changed over the past year or so. But then the difficulty is in assessing whether the Lib Dems' Siobhan Mathers or SNP's Shirley-Anne Sommerville will take over. Lib Dems are in second place, but only just, and from the people I have spoken to and the students I know, it is the SNP who are now taking the core chunk of the disaffected Labour votes here. I know a lot of the people involved with the old Royal Infirmary are keen to vote SNP this time around too so I am now backing Shirley-Anne to win Edinburgh Central.

I also considered Davie Hutchison winning Edinburgh North and Leith, Kenny MacAskill to win Edinburgh East, Kenneth Gibson to oust Allan Wilson in Cunninghame North, Christina McKelvie to beat Tom McCabe in Hamilton South amongst others. I felt the swings required were too big in Davie, Christina and Kenny's case and for Kenneth, in his constituency Campbell Martin is standing as an independent and given he has been an MSP for this area before, I see him taking too many votes from Kenneth for the SNP to pull off a win here, despite the relatively small swing required.



So what does all this mean for the result:

Well, compared to the last set of results (which were based solely on the Populus poll), we have:

Overall result:

SNP	45 (-)
Labour	38 (-3)
Lib Dems	19 (-3)
Tories	16 (-)
Greens	7 (+6)
SSP	0 (-)
Solidarity	1 (-)
Margo	1 (-)
Jean Turner	1 (-)
SSCUP	1 (-)
Total	129

The above result just feels right somehow, I've checked through my FPTP results, compared them to prior years, looked at different trends and they fit with the polling data too. So, I'm at the mercy of the YouGovs and System 3s of this world for the regional result but I really think the above won't be too far away at all from the final picture.


Here's a break down of the impact of the FPTP switches for the regions involved:


Lothians (after change in polling figures and Shirley-Anne Sommerville beating Sarah Boyack)

SNP 5 (-)
Labour 4 (-)
Lib Dems 2 (-1)
Tories 2 (-)
Greens 2 (+1)
Margo 1

So, the upshot of a change in Edinburgh Central is that the SNP get one less list MSP and Labour get George Foulkes into the parliament. I'm really not a fan of the man so in a way it's a good thing, turning away further Labour voters for 4 years and not just at election time! The Greens will pick up an extra seat from the Lib Dems if the Lib Dem share of the vote does come in at the 15% suggested in the last few days. Note the Tories are pushing hard for a second list MSP, missing out by a mere 200 votes.



West (after change in polling figures and Bill Wilson beating Patricia Godman and Annabel Goldie, also after Fiona McLeaod replaces Hugh Henry)

SNP 5 (+1)
Labour 5 (-1)
Lib Dems 2 (-1)
Tories 2 (-)
Greens 1 (+1)

This would be ideal for me, I want to see an SNP/Green coalition, topped up by the Lib Dems if need be so this result plays right into it. I just hope I've called the FPTP correctly!


Glasgow (after change in polling figures and Sandra White defeating Pauline McNeill in Glasgow Kelvin)

SNP 5 (-)
Labour 8 (-1)
Lib Dems 1 (-)
Tories 1 (-)
Greens 1 (+1)
Tommy Sheridan (-)

Greens to take a seat off Labour if the Populus/YouGov polls are accurate on average. It will be interesting to see just how strong the Labour seats are here. Murmurs of a complete disintegration in the West could lead to some sort of landslide on May 3rd.