Scotland Votes

And there was I thinking I was the only reliable source for translating polling data into seats but Scotland Votes has done a very good job taking a poll of polls. that is, 5 polls over a similar period have been merged together to create a super poll/uber poll/wonder poll (call it what you like)

This reduces the sampling risk by increasing the sample size so the margin of error reduces, albeit by a fairly small degree. The only downside is, there is no indication what polls were merged. So you could have a few reliable polls and then lump them in with a poll that has no statistical basis to it or is politicall biased. In which case, you would have been better off with the originial polls from the reputable companies.

But what has impressed me most of all was there analysis of the seats that would be lost. Hugh Henry, Trish Godman, Allan Wilson and Andy Kerr. Not easy ones to call and you look a bit silly if you predict these people losing their seats only to be proved wrong come the day.

I didn't quite have the nerve to predict Andy Kerr not getting back in, I just think East Kilbride will have too many 'loyal' Labour supporters and Andy's high profile is bound to help also, despite a very strong challenge of Linda del Fabiani.

Though with the Socialists not standing and their 3000 votes up for grabs in a seat with a majority of just over 4000, it is certainly too close to call with any real confidence. A scalp of Andy Kerr would be huge indeed. It might even lead to the second Labour coronation of the year - Wendy for leader..... (Note of course that Wendy is a good chum of Gordon's by most accounts)


The website also points out the very real possibility of Labour and Lib Dems forming an administration despite the SNP being the largest party. The numbers are very much pointing that way and with the regional vopte redressing soe of the balance, the scales are very much tipped to some hard bargaining being required rather than a clear winner on May 3rd.