Sensitivity Analysis - South

This is the kind of stuff that I love - Labour should want Christine Grahame to win Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale. Make any sense? Let me explain...


South of Scotland is one of the easier regions to call, all except for Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale and I think that seat is between Christine Grahame (SNP) and Derek Brownlee (Tory). Jeremy Purves and Lady Catherine (And others) may disagree with me but that's how I see it.


So, I decided to look at the regional results in both situations and make a comparison. Rather interesting as you shall see:


If Christine Grahame wins, then in the South we have:

Labour 5 seats (3 FPTP and 2 regional)
Tory 3 seats (2 FPTP and 1 regional)
SNP 5 seats (3 FPTP and 2 regional)
Lib Dems 2 seats (1FPTP and 1 regional)
Green 1 seat (a regional, of course)


If Derek Brownlee wins, then we have:

Labour 4 seats (3 FPTP and 1 regional) 1 down, Jalal Chaudry loses out
Tory 4 seats (3 FPTP and 1 regional) 1 up, John Lamont gains
SNP 5 seats (2 FPTP and 3 regional) no change
Lib Dems 2 seats (1FPTP and 1 regional) no change
Green 1 seat (a regional) no change



So the SNP should not worry too much if they don't win this tough seat. Infact, if you want to be really cynical, it is in the SNP's interests to not win here as it would give them one more MSP than Labour in the long run.


Elections, they're a funny business. I'm off to find any more anomalies....