Also, incredibly, the Scotland on Sunday and the Sunday Herald are backing the SNP. They could have taken a non-committal approach but they decided that the SNP is the party worth voting for.
But back to this poll, the papers have predicted what the polling figures means in terms of seats. This will be fairly accurate but it ignores the various regions in the second list, the complicated d'Hondt formula and local issues in local constituencies.
So, I have decided to have one last prediction of what will happen on Thursday, from the FPTP results right down to each of the 8 regions.
This uses the FPTP polling data to assess (guesstimate) what will happen in the first vote as well as pulling together local knowledge from various sources. These results are shown at the bottom of the post (since 73 lines of data is far from aesthetically pleasing!).
YouGov Superpoll, FPTP score
SNP - 38
Labour - 30
Lib Dems - 15
Conservative - 12
Other - 4
Notable judgement calls in the FPTP race are:
Derek Brownlee (Tory) to take Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale
Jamie Hepburn (SNP) to take Cumbernauld and Kilsyth
Michael Matheson (SNP) to take Falkirk West
Nicola Sturgeon and Sandra White to win 2 seats in deepest, darkest Glasgow
Shirley Anne Sommerville (SNP) to win the tight seat of Edinburgh Central
Mike Pringle and George Lyon to hold their Lib Dem seats, but no Lib Dem gains anywhere in Scotland.
Kenny MacAskill, Fiona Hyslop and Angela Constance to make gains in Edinburgh for the SNP
Len Woods and Tricia Marwick to make gains in Fife
Lewis MacDonald to lose out to Karen Shirron in Aberdeen Central
Jackson Carlaw and Murray Tosh to make gains for the Tories in the West and South respectively
Iain Gray to return to Parliament by squeezing out a win in East Lothian
Jean Turner to be returned as the only FPTP independent
These results and the other 1st vote figures will then contribute to how the share of the 56 regional seats are distributed. With these predictions now fixed, and using the YouGov polling info released today, we have the following results in each constituency:
YouGov Superpoll, regional score
SNP - 32
Labour - 27
Conservative - 14
Lib Dem - 12
Greens - 6
SSP - 2
Solidarity - 3
Other - 4
Result - Lothian
1 Green
2 Margo McDonald
3 Tory
4 Labour
5 Labour
6 Tory
7 Green
8 SNP
Result - Glasgow
1 Tommy Sheridan
2 SNP
3 Lib Dems
4 SSP
5 Tory
6 SNP
7 Green
8 SNP
Result - Central
1 Tory
2 SNP
3 Lib Dems
4 SNP
5 SCCUP
6 Labour
7 SNP
8 Labour
Result - Highlands and Islands
1 Labour
2 Tory
3 Labour
4 SNP
5 Tory
6 Green
7 SNP
8 Labour
Result - Mid Scotland and Fife
1 Tory
2 Tory
3 Lib Dems
4 Greens
5 SNP
6 Labour
7 Tory
8 SNP
Result - North East
1 Labour
2 Tory
3 Labour
4 Tory
5 Lib Dems
6 Labour
7 SNP
8 Tory
Result - South
1 SNP
2 SNP
3 Labour
4 SNP
5 Labour
6 Tory
7 Lib Dems
8 Green
Result - West
1 Lib Dems
2 SNP
3 SNP
4 Lib Dems
5 Tory
6 SNP
7 Greens
8 SNP
So in total, the make-up and break-down of the Holyrood parliament for 2007-2011 would be as follows:
| SNP | 44 |
| Labour | 38 |
| Lib Dems | 18 |
| Tories | 18 |
| Greens | 6 |
| SSP | 1 |
| Solidarity | 1 |
| Margo | 1 |
| Jean Turner | 1 |
| SSCUP | 1 |
| Total | 129 |
A bad night for the SSP and Labour. Not a great showing for the Greens either really and Nicol Stephen might have hoped to have done better. A good showing by the Tories, surprisingly above the Lib Dems on the second vote. And a fine night for the SNP of course, able to power share with the Lib Dems and maybe the Greens.
ALL FPTP results
| Winner (expected) | |
| Constituency | |
| Airdrie & Shotts | Karen Whitefield |
| Coatbridge & Chryston | Elaine Smith |
| Cumbernauld & Kilsyth | Jamie Hepburn |
| East Kilbride | Andy Kerr |
| Falkirk East | Annabelle Ewing |
| Falkirk West | Michael Matheson |
| Hamilton North & Bellshill | Michael McMahon |
| Hamilton South | Tom McCabe |
| Kilmarnock & Loudoun | Willie Coffey |
| Motherwell & Wishaw | Jack McConnell |
| Glasgow Anniesland | Bill Butler |
| Glasgow Baillieston | Margaret Curran |
| Glasgow Cathcart | Charlie Gordon |
| Glasgow Govan | Nicola Sturgeon |
| Glasgow Kelvin | Sandra White |
| Glasgow Maryhill | Patricia Ferguson |
| Glasgow Pollok | Johann Lamont |
| Glasgow Rutherglen | James Kelly |
| Glasgow Shettleston | Frank McAveety |
| Glasgow Springburn | Paul Martin |
| Argyll & Bute | George Lyon |
| Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross | Jamie Stone |
| Inverness East Nairn & Lochaber | Fergus Ewing |
| Moray | Richard Lochhead |
| Orkney | Liam McArthur |
| Ross Skye & Inverness West | John Farquar Munro |
| Shetland | Tavish Scott |
| Western Isles | Dr Alasdair Allan |
| Edinburgh Central | Shirley-Anne Somerville |
| Edinburgh East & Musselburgh | Kenny Macaskill |
| Edinburgh North & Leith | Malcolm Chisholm |
| Edinburgh Pentlands | David McLetchie |
| Edinburgh South | Mike Pringle |
| Edinburgh West | Margaret Smith |
| Linlithgow | Fiona Hyslop |
| Livingston | Angela Constance |
| Midlothian | Rhona Brankin |
| Central Fife | Tricia Marwick |
| Dunfermline East | Helen Eadie |
| Dunfermline West | Len Woods |
| Kirkcaldy | Marilyn Livingston |
| North East Fife | Iain Smith |
| North Tayside | John Swinney |
| Ochil | Keith Brown |
| Perth | Roseanna Cunningham |
| Stirling | Sylvia Jackson |
| Aberdeen Central | Karen Shirron |
| Aberdeen North | Brian Adam |
| Aberdeen South | Nicol Stephen |
| Angus | Andrew Welsh |
| Banff & Buchan | Stewart Stevenson |
| Dundee East | Shona Robison |
| Dundee West | Joe Fitzpatrick |
| Gordon | Alex Salmond |
| West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine | Mike Rumbles |
| Ayr | John Scott |
| Carrick Cummnock & Doon Valley | Cathy Jamieson |
| Clydesdale | Aileen Campbell |
| Cunninghame South | Irene Oldfather |
| Dumfries | Murray Tosh |
| East Lothian | Iain Gray |
| Galloway & Upper Nithsdale | Alasdair Morgan |
| Roxburgh & Berwickshire | Euan Robson |
| Tweeddale Ettrick & Lauderdale | Derek Brownlee |
| Clydebank & Milngavie | Des McNulty |
| Cunninghame North | Kenneth Gibson |
| Dumbarton | Jackie Baillie |
| Eastwood | Jackson Carlaw |
| Greenock & Inverclyde | Duncan McNeil |
| Paisley North | Wendy Alexander |
| Paisley South | Fiona McLeaod |
| Strathkelvin & Bearsden | Jean Turner |
| West Renfrewshire | Bill Wilson |
26 comments:
what's the thinking behind giving TE & L to Tory. Info I have has the SNP well ahead in all of the constituency
Call it a reluctant hunch.
Hope your info is stronger than mine.
Fellow anon, neighbouring Nat Constituencies don't think Grahame will win the seat, that's straight from the horses mouth. So where is your info from?
Sorry can't say where my info is from but I assure it is good.
Derek Brownlee to win TE&L? Eh...naw. Think your hunch is way off, as with a few other predicitions. Christine to win that one I think!
East Lothian - could be in for a shock - SNP Doing very well
Yeah, East Lothian is more of an unreluctant hunch there. Don't want to get carried away but I've heard of some very positive polling data out that way. Of course, fat-cat pay cheques for ex-Labour councillors isn't going to help Iain Gray's cause!
And other anon, any seats in particular you think I have wrong? TEL is possibly the trickiest seat to call of all 73.
Eh? That's ... weird. Your predictions are almost exactly the same as mine, down to even the individual independent candidates.
Where it is different is for the Western Isles (where I live). I think Labour have done enough to hold onto the seat. There's as good as an anti-SNP alliance between Labour and the Scottish Christian Party here. To quote from the SCP leaflet through everyone's door last saturday: "The Scottish Christian Party is not opposing Alasdair Morrison, the sitting MSP, in this constituency vote." This is the one constituency where this does count for a lot.
SCP activists have been campaigning for a Labour/SCP X X, and have employed other tactics.
There's other reasons as well, both for and against the SNP/Labour votes. Though it grates to say it, am predicting a majority of 500-800 for the Labour sitting MSP in this seat.
Word 'on the street' here in Edinburgh East and Musselburgh is that Kenny MacAskill is going to romp home.
Norman 'Broon Envelope' Murray may as well not have bothered. The natives are restless and in the mood to give the NuLab stooge a kicking he won't forget.
Susan Deacon was quite well respected locally and might have held it, but people are fizzing about the whole East Lothian "payoff" issue.
Hi John, thanks for the comment and that is very spooky indeed how similar the results are. Good that we can confirm each other's assumptions in a way.
I hadn't heard of that Labour SCP combination at all. That is rather depressing, hopefully SNP can still take it but you're much better placed to make a call on it than I am.
Still find it odd that the SCP of all parties could hold the sway for a constituency vote but there you go...
Cheers!
Good stuff Sadie, I'm living in Edinburgh East myself and that's the distinct impression I'm getting too. Susan Deacon was a hard act to follow and the Labour leaflets don't even have Norman Murray's name or picture on the front!
I don't think he'll romp home but I see Kenny winning here, it'd be a fine result for him.
And yes, the councillor pay-off thing is an absolute scandal. Expenses/salaries etc have to get seriously sorted out once the SNP are in charge.
I can exclusively reveal my unscientific poll of voting intentions in Edinburgh Central. I thought Sarah Boyack could hold on but my survey (of everyone I know in that constituency) reveals that every single Lab voter claims they are switching.
Fingers crossed for Shirley-Anne Somerville. Afer the FibDems little 'look around the graph, don't look directly at the graph' trick leaflet, they don't deserve to take it.
*Laugh* I spotted that election leaflet myself, typical stuff from the Lib Dems really.
My own unscientific poll isn't so comforting, but then it does include a relation of a former Labour MP so that was one vote that was always going to be hard to turn!
Lib Dems feature strongly, I get a strong, almost angry ribbing for voting SNP so that's several lost votes for Shirley Anne.
It would be a cracking win for the SNP but any of the 3 parties could take it really.
Any thoughts on Davie Hutchison's chances Sadie? Or Mike Pringle fending off Donald Anderson? Not sure how far your polling stretches of course.
Whats the far left votes like, does the table show Tommy Sheridan of Solidarity topping the Glasgow list with the majority of regional votes? Id be surprised cos even when Tommy was in the SSP I dont think they got that much and that was under far better circumstances.
Well spotted regarding the far left, I decided the exact number of votes Tommy received was too hard to call so I just made a decision whether he'd get in or not. And 21,000 votes was the arbitrary figure I attributed to him, maybe it's too high but it doesn't affect the final 7 too much.
And the SSP vote could be a misnomer given that it was Tommy who was top billing in 2003. Arguably the next top candidate will be less popular so their share of the vote may decrease accordingly. So whoever is at round 8 has more than a decent chance of getting in.
Not sure re Edin North and Leith -my sample size isn't big! Chisholm could well hold on, he is respected locally. Also his Trident-related resignation could hold some sway with the chattering classes. My mates aren't really represetative of the typical voter in this constituency as most of them work for the exec! A few of them know Chisholm and have him marked down as a good guy.
My gut feeling re Edin South is that Pringle will increase his maj.
Yep, same views as myself Sadie. Edinburgh North and Leith may be one constituency too far for the SNP charge.
Chisholm's anti-Trident stance was a shrewd move but maybe the voters will wonder how many times can a minister stand down before deciding someone else has more to offer'. Find out soon I guess...
Hi Jeff, interested in your prediction that Len Woods will win Dunfermline West. I certainly hope that comes true but just wondered on your thinking behind that.
Len is fighting against a large scale Fib Dem campaign (and doing so very well) which has turned Dunf West into basically a three way fight. IE harder to call.
Have you thought about the other two Fife Labour seats, Kirkcaldy and Dunfermline East where its a straight fight between Labour and the SNP and what are your thoughts on them?
Not going to come out and say I'm definitely winning here (too old in the tooth for that!) but the feedback we're getting from folk is that the undecideds are firming up for us and there's a real mood in Fife to give Labour a kicking!
Personally I'll be delighted at getting 30% or above and anything more than that will be fantastic (and you never know it can happen).
I'd certainly say that Fife's declarations will be ones to watch on election night.
But wondered what your own thoughts were?
Cheers,
Ewan
PS Agree with you on Trish, think Central Fife should be ours.
PPS Off now to Rosyth and Douglas Chapman's council seat which straddles Dunf East and West so might have a better idea of how the Fibs are doing over the "border" later.
Cheers for the massive message, just finishing at work here and needed something to chew over election-wise so good timing!
I gave Len Woods the nod over 2 main things. It was clear that Scott Barrie was very worried about his seat given the way he resigned over the bridge tolls vote recently. And further to this, an independent health campaigner picked up 4,500 votes (18%) in 2003 which, if added to the SNP's 4,400 votes would have been enough to beat Scott Barrie back then.
Of course, it's churlish to suggest that all of the 4,500 independent votes would go to the SNP in 2007. That's not what I'm saying but I do think a lot of them will, and given the complete change in the national polls, then I think Len has enough on Scott to win there.
I don't see the Lib Dems mounting enough of a challenge to win the seat outright, but they may help Len by taking more Labour votes away from Scott (particularly the pro-unionists).
Kirkcaldy just has too strong a Labour core to take on, especially as Chris Harvie is from Motherwell rather than being a local.
As for yourself, I don't need to tell you you have a massive majority to make up! 1 of 2 voters going for Labour last time around. It just depends how disillusioned the Fifers are with Labour; my guess is not enough to oust Helen Eadie.
Mind you, if Janet Law, the 2003 SNP candidate was pretty useless and didn't work her socks off, then the 2003 position may be misleading somewhat. Even still, Labour are on 30% in the polls so there are large pockets of people still going to vote for them and Dunfermline East may very well be one of them.
But I think you're right, 30% is perfectly possible for you and then who knows. I've always found Fife one of the hardest regions to call and as a result, will probably make or break the SNP's night. No pressure or anything Ewan!
Good luck and feel free to chip in with any news from the frontline whenever you wish...
So does the position on the list have anything to do with the partys safeness, in terms of holding on to it in the real thing?
For example, the poll has the SSP on the Glasgow list at position 4, does that mean its safely held, or just by the skin of the teeth?
Yes, except for Tommy, Margo and John Swinbourne where a fairly loose guess has been given as to the level of votes they will receive each based on 2003. Only so much info national polls can give!
But SNP/Labour/Lib Dem/Tory/Green/SSP at rounds 1-4 are pretty much guaranteed a seat, assuming the FPTP position stays as it is.
I was tempted to post the exact number of votes but didn't have the time. With Man Utd vs Milan tomorrow, I doubt I'll get around to it!
jeff,
enjoying your site and predictions (although I don't share your political viewpoint)
Just heard on Newsnight that Labour and SNP are level pegging. Will you be providing a final prediction before the count on Thursday?
Thanks anonymous, i don't have a counter for how many people click on so it's good to see some messages.
I am loathe to do another prediction, if only because I enjoy living in dreamland of an SNP demolition of Labour! The latest polls are very intriguing, and I am fighting the urge to rule them out as politically motivated. The Scotsman and The Times are highly pro-unionist after all ;)
But alas, ICM are a highly reputable polling company so I'm sure the data is true and fair. And given it is the last poll before the election, I should transfer the data into number of seats.
If I'm not out watching Man U tonight, I will do one final prediction.
I think I'll have to revise some of my FPTP decisions too as I gave a few of them to SNP based mainly on the 9% lead they had per YouGov.
I see McConnell has been campaigning on a soapbox.
The stench of John Major is strong... so strong...
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