SNP Marathon Team - Progress Report

My Sunday mornings generally involve a few concrete habits that never change.

Some of these are:


(1) Cursing that not only did I miss the Saturday night showing of Match of the Day but I've also missed the Sunday morning slot and, this weekend for example, I won't get to see Diomansay Kamara's overhead kick not to mention Xabi Alonso's non-sensical 45 yard free kick.

(2) Cursing that I've also woken up after Sunday AM or the BBC News 24 special that starts at 9

(3) Wandering down to the local newsagents to check if the front pages of the Sunday Herald hold good news or bad news for the SNP


And alas, it was a hat trick of bad news for me this morning, or so it seemed on first inspection of the front page of the Herald which stated that the SNP have "suffered a blow" given that the majority of Scots would vote against independence.

Further musing has led me to think that the polling data released by System 3, that 50% of people are against independence with only 35% in favour, is not so bad for the SNP after all.


Why? Well let me begin...


(1) The most important aspect of the figures is that 35% should be seen as a base for the SNP to work with. The independence referendum won't be tomorrow, next month or even next year and they have the political agenda at their fingertips to use to their own ends to bump this figure up to a level nearer the 50% mark where the unionist parties would be simply unable to oppose a referendum.

I personally have no problem with this political tactic. I'll be judging the SNP's performance solely on how well Scotland are benefitting from them sitting in charge of the Executive, sorry, I mean Government. And this judgement has thus far been 5 star. Any independence manouevring that is no doubt going on behind the scenes is by the bye.

(2) 50% have said no to independence in this poll and 35% have said yes. Despite this seemingly black and white picture, I'm sure most Scots are open to being persuaded either way and are not burying their heads in the sand to the opposite argument. Unlike some.

And unfortunately for the staunch unionists, I can easily imagine more of the 50% will be won over by the optimistic and inspiring overtures from the SNP than the 35% will from the pessimistic doom-mongering from the unionist parties.

The 35% have set up camp in one half of the independence ideological divide with the vast majority of them probably not looking back for a second. I bet my bottom euro that large swathes of the 50% are ambling around the same ideological divide and having a look at the benefits of independence, wondering, assessing and perhaps daring to dream...

It would take an SNP disaster for them to slip much below 35% support but only a small tipping point or single significant event would have the 50% dropping quickly.

(3) Younger people are much more likely to vote for the SNP and, as shown by this poll, are more likely to vote in favour of independence. It is fairly non-sensical to have 16 and 17 year olds who are able to get married, have children, pay taxes and join the armed forces but are denied the right to vote. If this were to change, and I suspect it will in the near future, the SNP would see an automatic bump in this 35% base position.

(4) It's rather morbid this one, but there's no escaping the fact that more older people die than younger people. Given that elderly people are quite staunchly unionist and, as noted above, youngsters are generally in favour of independence, then as the most advanced generation die off and as more and more young ones see their 18th birthday, then there's a chance the share of the vote in favour of independence will slide upwards.

Of course, this may not be the case. Perhaps around the age of 30-40 many people's preferences change from independence to unity (the ignorance of youth?) such that the above benefit for the SNP is cancelled out.

Even still, I'd choose the young ones rather than the old ones to be on my side as the years tick by.

(5) Considering 23% of people were in favour of independence on May 2nd and 31% were in favour on August 10th, then the SNP are clearly getting their message across and winning people around. Has support levelled off at 35% or is it merely the beginning of a surge? Given the Nationalists are only starting to explain the benefits of independence from an appropriate platform I would guess it's the latter. Only further polling in future months can tell us for sure...


So, with the World Athletics Championships currently on, it may be appropriate to describe the race for independence as a marathon and not a sprint. And with plenty of laps of the Scottish Government's reign still to go and flagging competitors up ahead, I would say the SNP have more than enough gas in their tank and ideological stamina to see this one home.