The One That Got Away?

Ok, let's get one thing straight before we kick off here. Giving a good speech is not akin to leading the country well. OK? Good.

Tony Blair gave good unflustered barnstorming speeches but had some well-known fundamental flaws in how he governed.

Gordon Brown usually looks like he'd rather be anywhere else when communicating with the masses but has got off to a great start as leader.

Of course, there are some people who fail rather dismally in both areas.


Anyway, yes, despite the above protestation, I can humbly admit that this is my grudging admission that David Cameron had a bit of a stormer yesterday. I hasten to add it would take a miracle before I'd put a cross next to his name.

The reason for my rather troubled feelings surrounding this good performance is not due to a love of Brown over Cameron. In one (rather perverse) way I actually would rather enjoy seeing a surprise Tory victory as I think the SNP could only benefit from it in many ways, not just in their tireless quest for Scottish Independence.

But no, the reason for my dissatisfaction is that I think there is now a good chance that our nervous Labour leader will be thinking that the risk of actually losing a November election outwieghs the risk of looking like a wimp by not having one at all this year. After all, the Electoral Commission have thrown up the perfect excuse to have the election later rather than sooner as the infrastructure and manpower to have a UK election just isn't in place. One of those "I'd love to, but it's out of my hands" excuses.

So, as Brown crunches the electoral figures and sees his 13-point lead slip back to a level that he can count on his fingers, so too does this psephologist see this once upcoming election perhaps being kicked into the tall grass.

I guess we'll just have to look to America 2008.