The latest poll from ICM doesn't hold any major changes. The SNP are holding firm with a 5 point lead over Labour, Lib Dems have had no real movement and the Tories have had a nice wee increase to move more or less in line with the Libs.
So no real change.
But the potentially worrying result of this poll is that the independents seem to be being squeezed out. Solidarity not making a big splash and the SSP dows to a couple of seats according to ICM. But the biggest change could be with The Green Party. The Greens were predicted to get 7 seats in my poll, based simply on the fact that the world is falling apart at the seams with hurricanes, floods, warm winters, cold summers and generally bizarre weather all over the world. This doesn't seem to have translated into votes for the Green party as one (that is, me) would have suspected. The Scotsman reports that the Greens have been unable to maintain the 6% voting threshold to get the one seat in each constitutency.
Now, I would say Lothian is an exception given this is Robin Harper's stomping ground and the party reeceoved 12.4% last time around. So, assuming that the Greens did miss out and only have Robin representing them, how would this affect the regional vote? What list MSPs would gain from the green demise?
Well, I am using the latest polls as a guide for how the second round of voting will go and also using local trends from the 2003 results to account for strong Labour/Lib Dem/SNP/Tory regions etc. And I make it that the changes would be as follows....
Lothian - Robin Harper elected and SNP would get an extra MSP at the expense of the 2nd green candidate
Glasgow - No green MSP in my results
Central - SNP would get an extra MSP at the expense of the green candidate
H&I - No green MSP in my results
MS&F - SNP would get an extra MSP at the expense of the green candidate
NE - Tories would get an extra MSP at the expense of the green candidate
South - SSP would get an MSP at the expense of the green candidate
West - Lib Dems would get an MSP at the expense of the green candidate
So, pretty interesting really. The Greens having a shocker could potentially hand SNP 3 extra MSPs and the Labour party none. Of course, this also means that if there are some slight errors in my predictions for the regions, it is SNP who is most likely to profit.
Given my earlier post on overall voting results, this takes SNP to within 3 seats of Labour in the race for largest party. I maintain that this blog holds back from awarding SNP the tight seats, erring on the side of Labour so, the bottom line is, it's going to be a very tight race!
But is it possible, that the greatest threat to mankind is being forgotten in the excitement of McConnell vs Salmond?
Wednesday, February 28, 2007
Friday, February 23, 2007
No smoke without fire...
The Publican Party have sparked their 2007 campaign into life.
They will be hoping to stub out the smoking ban by returning a few MSPs to Holyrood to make the case. Their aim is surely to appeal to the aggrieved smokers who we all see soaked to the skin on a Friday and Saturday evening.
It's not easy to gauge how this one will go. If every smoker voted for this party then they will do very well indeed. However, (1) that's not going to happen and (2) not every smoker is against the ban. Many accept that they cause a right old stink when they smoke in public and the smell quite rightly gets up other people's noses. But they might be able to tap into a section of the population that doesn't usually vote.
As for how it might affect SNP and Labour in the head to head. Well, let's see shall we....
The Publican Party are standing in Highlands and Islands, Mid Scotland and Fife, North East, Lothians and one other consitutency.
Assuming they managed to get 1 MSP in each region, which I think is unlikely but lets go with it for now. Well, that would mean the loss of...
An SNP candidate in H&I
A Lib Dem candidate in North East
A Lib Dem candidate in Lothian
A Tory candidate in Mid Scotland and Fife
So all in all, Labour will be blowing smoke rings and the others will be the butt of the joke.
Which means I for one will be hoping that The Publican Party are more Lambert & Butler than Benson & Hedges.
They will be hoping to stub out the smoking ban by returning a few MSPs to Holyrood to make the case. Their aim is surely to appeal to the aggrieved smokers who we all see soaked to the skin on a Friday and Saturday evening.
It's not easy to gauge how this one will go. If every smoker voted for this party then they will do very well indeed. However, (1) that's not going to happen and (2) not every smoker is against the ban. Many accept that they cause a right old stink when they smoke in public and the smell quite rightly gets up other people's noses. But they might be able to tap into a section of the population that doesn't usually vote.
As for how it might affect SNP and Labour in the head to head. Well, let's see shall we....
The Publican Party are standing in Highlands and Islands, Mid Scotland and Fife, North East, Lothians and one other consitutency.
Assuming they managed to get 1 MSP in each region, which I think is unlikely but lets go with it for now. Well, that would mean the loss of...
An SNP candidate in H&I
A Lib Dem candidate in North East
A Lib Dem candidate in Lothian
A Tory candidate in Mid Scotland and Fife
So all in all, Labour will be blowing smoke rings and the others will be the butt of the joke.
Which means I for one will be hoping that The Publican Party are more Lambert & Butler than Benson & Hedges.
Thursday, February 22, 2007
The best things in life are free....
The laugh of a child, the fall of rain in a forest, the skimming of a stone, the cracking of the top of a creme brulee, the NHS, the Strip the Willow when everyone knows what they're doing, catching your partner's eye with a knowing look across a crowded room.
Yes, that Luther Vandross really knew what he was talking about when he said the best things in life are free. Though I'm sure the NHS was the furthest thing from his mind when he penned these particular words.
But, of course, the NHS is not free. If I break my leg, I can go get a stookie, ask people to write their name on it and in 12 weeks, once my leg is healed, I'll be able to go out climbing trees again, clearly not having learned my lesson from 12 weeks prior. And this part of the process is free of course.
But the other side, the various health boards who have to pay for nurses, doctors, medicines, hospital beds, scalpels and scrumptious hospital dinners, not to mention the plastercast that makes my stookie every 12 weeks, well they are having a tough, tough time of it these days. They are desperately struggling to make their books balance. And it's not medicines and hospital beds that are dragging their profit and loss statements into the red, that wouldn't be so bad, but it is interest payments. Last time I checked, interest payments didn't stop cancer, perform transplants or make better stookies. And yet this is where a significant portion of our taxes are going.
The best things in life may be free for romantic head-in-the-cloud types like myself, but the cold heart of big business has no time for such things. They like profit, and fair play to them, that's how the private sector works.
Now, how much profit will these private companies make out of the UK taxpayer for having new shiny hospitals built earlier (at the expense of existing h ostpitals that were arguably working perfectly well anyway)? Well, 23 billion pounds over the next 30 years. 23 BILLION pounds...!
I have only recently learned about PFI and how it all works, and this was managed thanks to Julie MacNulty who is standing as an independent candidate in Coatbridge and Chryston (and in the Central regional vote). Julie has a blurb on PFI for Dummies on her blog which is, quite simply, mandatory reading for any Scottish voter who doesn't know about PFI already. Please, please read it.
I can't actually fathom how the powers that be in the Labour party decided this was a good idea. Well, I can actually as there is only one possible explanation for wasting so much money over 30 years. To look good in the short term... And sad to say, looking good and PR has been the achilles heel for New Labour. A movement that sucked us in, did some good for a while and then somewhat unravelled as it became clear it had less in the tank as it would have liked to have suggested.
Labour have seriously mismanaged our finances here and I urge people to learn more about this colossal waste of money, listen closely to the health debates and also to understand how to back-pedal our way out of this financial mess by attending one or more of Allyson Pollack's lectures.
Now, I believe that Andy Kerr and Lewis MacDonald are the health ministers for Scotland. Andy has a background in Consultancy work and land development. Lewis was a history lecturer, a parliamentary researcher and a cabinet adviser before becoming an elected representative himself.
I am not saying we need doctors and nurses to be the minsters for health, but would it not be beneficial to have (1) some accountants in there helping with decisions and (2) some people with a more vested interest in the NHS and some experience of how the sprawling entity works on the inside. There seems to be too many cheques and too many balances that don't balance for my liking. Noone is taking control of the money that is being frittered away. Which is our money that is being frittered away of course, not that that seems to matter for those in power seemingly.
The NHS being free at the point of use, and not building up a huge credit bill, would seem to be the most popular option for funding this behemoth. So let's vote in Julie MacNulty and Jean Turner to keep the pressure on the Health Ministers to do the right thing.
Our love affair with the NHS is sure to continue, but if we can't keep up the interest payments as and when they fall due, I daresay it won't be an Endless Love.
Ok, I'm off to get my Luther Vandross Greatest Hits album out now. And maybe crack into a cheeky wee creme brulee while I'm at it.
Yes, that Luther Vandross really knew what he was talking about when he said the best things in life are free. Though I'm sure the NHS was the furthest thing from his mind when he penned these particular words.
But, of course, the NHS is not free. If I break my leg, I can go get a stookie, ask people to write their name on it and in 12 weeks, once my leg is healed, I'll be able to go out climbing trees again, clearly not having learned my lesson from 12 weeks prior. And this part of the process is free of course.
But the other side, the various health boards who have to pay for nurses, doctors, medicines, hospital beds, scalpels and scrumptious hospital dinners, not to mention the plastercast that makes my stookie every 12 weeks, well they are having a tough, tough time of it these days. They are desperately struggling to make their books balance. And it's not medicines and hospital beds that are dragging their profit and loss statements into the red, that wouldn't be so bad, but it is interest payments. Last time I checked, interest payments didn't stop cancer, perform transplants or make better stookies. And yet this is where a significant portion of our taxes are going.
The best things in life may be free for romantic head-in-the-cloud types like myself, but the cold heart of big business has no time for such things. They like profit, and fair play to them, that's how the private sector works.
Now, how much profit will these private companies make out of the UK taxpayer for having new shiny hospitals built earlier (at the expense of existing h ostpitals that were arguably working perfectly well anyway)? Well, 23 billion pounds over the next 30 years. 23 BILLION pounds...!
I have only recently learned about PFI and how it all works, and this was managed thanks to Julie MacNulty who is standing as an independent candidate in Coatbridge and Chryston (and in the Central regional vote). Julie has a blurb on PFI for Dummies on her blog which is, quite simply, mandatory reading for any Scottish voter who doesn't know about PFI already. Please, please read it.
I can't actually fathom how the powers that be in the Labour party decided this was a good idea. Well, I can actually as there is only one possible explanation for wasting so much money over 30 years. To look good in the short term... And sad to say, looking good and PR has been the achilles heel for New Labour. A movement that sucked us in, did some good for a while and then somewhat unravelled as it became clear it had less in the tank as it would have liked to have suggested.
Labour have seriously mismanaged our finances here and I urge people to learn more about this colossal waste of money, listen closely to the health debates and also to understand how to back-pedal our way out of this financial mess by attending one or more of Allyson Pollack's lectures.
Now, I believe that Andy Kerr and Lewis MacDonald are the health ministers for Scotland. Andy has a background in Consultancy work and land development. Lewis was a history lecturer, a parliamentary researcher and a cabinet adviser before becoming an elected representative himself.
I am not saying we need doctors and nurses to be the minsters for health, but would it not be beneficial to have (1) some accountants in there helping with decisions and (2) some people with a more vested interest in the NHS and some experience of how the sprawling entity works on the inside. There seems to be too many cheques and too many balances that don't balance for my liking. Noone is taking control of the money that is being frittered away. Which is our money that is being frittered away of course, not that that seems to matter for those in power seemingly.
The NHS being free at the point of use, and not building up a huge credit bill, would seem to be the most popular option for funding this behemoth. So let's vote in Julie MacNulty and Jean Turner to keep the pressure on the Health Ministers to do the right thing.
Our love affair with the NHS is sure to continue, but if we can't keep up the interest payments as and when they fall due, I daresay it won't be an Endless Love.
Ok, I'm off to get my Luther Vandross Greatest Hits album out now. And maybe crack into a cheeky wee creme brulee while I'm at it.
Giza break judge...
The BBC reports that a young 22 year old Blogger has been sent to jail for 3 years for insulting Islam and the President.
See - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6385849.stm
Personally, this kind of news is about as depressing as it gets really. Some of the best years of his life robbed for nothing.
I take it the judge didn't see the irony (or hypocrisy) in incarcerating a young man who had the audacity to claim that Islam suppressed free speech.
It seems this case has been going on for a while (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kareem_Amer)
And I think anyone who writes a blog, especially one with the temerity of containing anything defamatory about Jack McConnell or Tony Blair, should read this website campaigning for the freedom of this guy. (http://www.freekareem.org/)
See - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/6385849.stm
Personally, this kind of news is about as depressing as it gets really. Some of the best years of his life robbed for nothing.
I take it the judge didn't see the irony (or hypocrisy) in incarcerating a young man who had the audacity to claim that Islam suppressed free speech.
It seems this case has been going on for a while (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kareem_Amer)
And I think anyone who writes a blog, especially one with the temerity of containing anything defamatory about Jack McConnell or Tony Blair, should read this website campaigning for the freedom of this guy. (http://www.freekareem.org/)
If you don't want to know the score, please look away now...
OK, so I am back from a little trip up north to Newcastle. (North to Newcastle you say, from a person in Scotland?!). Well, I am not in Scotland and nor was I on the Tyne for the past week. Let's just say there were beaches and precious little Newkie Broon Ale, it has been a great summer over the past few months and long may it continue, well until Mar 9th anyway when I jet off home on a 20 hour flight to the curiously comforting Edinburgth drizzle.
But, to get myself back into the Scottish Politics mood; I thought I would dig out my analysis of who will win which seats, look up the latest polls (of which there are none, pull your finger out ICM), do a round of my favourite blogs to see if I've changed my mind on any results (Jamie Stone's jacket is on a shoogly nail for example) and then tally up who will be winning where, and who will take the ultimate prize of power in Scotland.
I'll do a full rundown of the state of play for each constituency soon but for now, here is a quick synopsis of who wins where through my deep-blue, come to bed eyes... (what's the point in having a blog if you don't indulge in a little delusion from time to time)
Overall Seats
Labour 43
SNP 37
Tory 19
Lib Dem 18
Greens 7
SSP/Solidarity 3
Margo McDonald
Jean Turner
First past the post -
Labour 38
SNP 21
Lib Dem 10
Tory 3
Jean Turner 1
Regional Vote
Labour 5
SNP 16
Lib Dem 8
Tory 16
Greens 7
SSP 2
Solidarity 1
Margo 1
Note that I am still holding off awarding the SNP some very tight seats due to my natural caution. Another strong poll in their favour and I will 'allow' the likes of Jim Mather, Rob Gibson, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Tricia Marwick, Christina McKelvie and others to win their seats as opposed to coming a close second.
Tactical voting -
Ayr - Vote for John Scott of Conservatives
Coatbridge & Chryston - Vote for Julie McAnulty, independent health candidate
Edinburgh Pentlands - Vote for David McLetchie
Edinburgh South - Vote for Mike Pringle of Lib Dems
Edinburgh West - Vote for Margaret Smith of Lib Dems
Eastwood - Vote for Jackson Carlaw of Conserevatives
Strathkelvin - Vote for Jean Turner
Ok, so that's all for now, just a wee post to keep things ticking over before coming up with some new ideas over the next few days. For now, I'm off to see The Good Shepherd. Ciao!
Breakdown of who I think will win where......
Airdrie & Shotts Central Karen Whitefield
Coatbridge & Chryston Central Elaine Smith
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth Central Jamie Hepburn
East Kilbride Central Andy Kerr
Falkirk East Central Cathy Peattie
Falkirk West Central Labour candidate
Hamilton North Central Michael McMahon
Hamilton South Central Tom McCabe
Kilmarnock & Loudoun Central Willie Coffey
Motherwell & Wishaw Central Jack McConnell
Glasgow Anniesland Glasgow Bill Butler
Glasgow Baillieston Glasgow Margaret Curran
Glasgow Cathcart Glasgow Charlie Gordon
Glasgow Govan Glasgow Nicola Sturgeon
Glasgow Kelvin Glasgow Pauline McNeill
Glasgow Maryhill Glasgow Patricia Ferguson
Glasgow Pollok Glasgow Johann Lamont
Glasgow Rutherglen Glasgow James Kelly
Glasgow Shettleston Glasgow Frank McAveety
Glasgow Springburn Glasgow Paul Martin
Argyll & Bute Highlands & Islands George Lyon
Caithness Highlands & Islands Jamie Stone
Inverness EastN Highlands & Islands Fergus Ewing
Moray Highlands & Islands Richard Lochhead
Orkney Highlands & Islands Liam McArthur
Ross Skye & I W Highlands & Islands John Farquar Munro
Shetland Highlands & Islands Tavish Scott
Western Isles Highlands & Islands Alasdair Allan
Edinburgh Central Lothian Sarah Boyack
Edinburgh East Lothian Labour candidate
Edinburgh North & L Lothian Malcolm Chisholm
Edinburgh Pentlands Lothian David McLetchie
Edinburgh South Lothian Cllr Donald Anderson
Edinburgh West Lothian Margaret Smith
Linlithgow Lothian Fiona Hyslop
Livingston Lothian Angela Constance
Midlothian Lothian Rhona Brankin
Central Fife Mid Scotland & Fife Christine May
Dunfermline E Mid Scotland & Fife Helen Eadie
Dunfermline W Mid Scotland & Fife Scott Barrie
Kirkcaldy Mid Scotland & Fife Marilyn Livingston
North East Fife Mid Scotland & Fife Iain Smith
North Tayside Mid Scotland & Fife John Swinney
Ochil Mid Scotland & Fife Keith Brown
Perth Mid Scotland & Fife Roseanna Cunningham
Stirling Mid Scotland & Fife Sylvia Jackson
Aberdeen Central North East Lewis Macdonald
Aberdeen North North East Brian Adam
Aberdeen South North East Nicol Stephen
Angus North East Andrew Welsh
Banff & Buchan North East Stewart Stevenson
Dundee East North East Shona Robison
Dundee West North East Joe Fitzpatrick
Gordon North East Alex Salmond
West Aberdeenshire North East Mike Rumbles
Ayr South of Scotland John Scott
Carrick Cummnock & Doon Valley South of Scotland Cathy Jamieson
Clydesdale South of Scotland Aileen Campbell
Cunninghame South South of Scotland Irene Oldfather
Dumfries South of Scotland Elaine Murray
East Lothian South of Scotland Iain Gray
Galloway & Upper Nithsdale South of Scotland Alasdair Morgan
Roxburgh & Berwickshire South of Scotland Euan Robson
Tweeddale Ettrick & Lauderdale South of Scotland Christine Grahame
Clydebank & Milngavie West of Scotland Des McNulty
Cunninghame North West of Scotland Allan Wilson
Dumbarton West of Scotland Jackie Baillie
Eastwood West of Scotland Jackson Carlaw
Greenock & Inverclyde West of Scotland Duncan McNeil
Paisley North West of Scotland Wendy Alexander
Paisley South West of Scotland Hugh Henry
Strathkelvin & Bearsd West of Scotland Jean Turner
West Renfrewshire West of Scotland Patricia Godman
But, to get myself back into the Scottish Politics mood; I thought I would dig out my analysis of who will win which seats, look up the latest polls (of which there are none, pull your finger out ICM), do a round of my favourite blogs to see if I've changed my mind on any results (Jamie Stone's jacket is on a shoogly nail for example) and then tally up who will be winning where, and who will take the ultimate prize of power in Scotland.
I'll do a full rundown of the state of play for each constituency soon but for now, here is a quick synopsis of who wins where through my deep-blue, come to bed eyes... (what's the point in having a blog if you don't indulge in a little delusion from time to time)
Overall Seats
Labour 43
SNP 37
Tory 19
Lib Dem 18
Greens 7
SSP/Solidarity 3
Margo McDonald
Jean Turner
First past the post -
Labour 38
SNP 21
Lib Dem 10
Tory 3
Jean Turner 1
Regional Vote
Labour 5
SNP 16
Lib Dem 8
Tory 16
Greens 7
SSP 2
Solidarity 1
Margo 1
Note that I am still holding off awarding the SNP some very tight seats due to my natural caution. Another strong poll in their favour and I will 'allow' the likes of Jim Mather, Rob Gibson, Shirley-Anne Somerville, Tricia Marwick, Christina McKelvie and others to win their seats as opposed to coming a close second.
Tactical voting -
Ayr - Vote for John Scott of Conservatives
Coatbridge & Chryston - Vote for Julie McAnulty, independent health candidate
Edinburgh Pentlands - Vote for David McLetchie
Edinburgh South - Vote for Mike Pringle of Lib Dems
Edinburgh West - Vote for Margaret Smith of Lib Dems
Eastwood - Vote for Jackson Carlaw of Conserevatives
Strathkelvin - Vote for Jean Turner
Ok, so that's all for now, just a wee post to keep things ticking over before coming up with some new ideas over the next few days. For now, I'm off to see The Good Shepherd. Ciao!
Breakdown of who I think will win where......
Airdrie & Shotts Central Karen Whitefield
Coatbridge & Chryston Central Elaine Smith
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth Central Jamie Hepburn
East Kilbride Central Andy Kerr
Falkirk East Central Cathy Peattie
Falkirk West Central Labour candidate
Hamilton North Central Michael McMahon
Hamilton South Central Tom McCabe
Kilmarnock & Loudoun Central Willie Coffey
Motherwell & Wishaw Central Jack McConnell
Glasgow Anniesland Glasgow Bill Butler
Glasgow Baillieston Glasgow Margaret Curran
Glasgow Cathcart Glasgow Charlie Gordon
Glasgow Govan Glasgow Nicola Sturgeon
Glasgow Kelvin Glasgow Pauline McNeill
Glasgow Maryhill Glasgow Patricia Ferguson
Glasgow Pollok Glasgow Johann Lamont
Glasgow Rutherglen Glasgow James Kelly
Glasgow Shettleston Glasgow Frank McAveety
Glasgow Springburn Glasgow Paul Martin
Argyll & Bute Highlands & Islands George Lyon
Caithness Highlands & Islands Jamie Stone
Inverness EastN Highlands & Islands Fergus Ewing
Moray Highlands & Islands Richard Lochhead
Orkney Highlands & Islands Liam McArthur
Ross Skye & I W Highlands & Islands John Farquar Munro
Shetland Highlands & Islands Tavish Scott
Western Isles Highlands & Islands Alasdair Allan
Edinburgh Central Lothian Sarah Boyack
Edinburgh East Lothian Labour candidate
Edinburgh North & L Lothian Malcolm Chisholm
Edinburgh Pentlands Lothian David McLetchie
Edinburgh South Lothian Cllr Donald Anderson
Edinburgh West Lothian Margaret Smith
Linlithgow Lothian Fiona Hyslop
Livingston Lothian Angela Constance
Midlothian Lothian Rhona Brankin
Central Fife Mid Scotland & Fife Christine May
Dunfermline E Mid Scotland & Fife Helen Eadie
Dunfermline W Mid Scotland & Fife Scott Barrie
Kirkcaldy Mid Scotland & Fife Marilyn Livingston
North East Fife Mid Scotland & Fife Iain Smith
North Tayside Mid Scotland & Fife John Swinney
Ochil Mid Scotland & Fife Keith Brown
Perth Mid Scotland & Fife Roseanna Cunningham
Stirling Mid Scotland & Fife Sylvia Jackson
Aberdeen Central North East Lewis Macdonald
Aberdeen North North East Brian Adam
Aberdeen South North East Nicol Stephen
Angus North East Andrew Welsh
Banff & Buchan North East Stewart Stevenson
Dundee East North East Shona Robison
Dundee West North East Joe Fitzpatrick
Gordon North East Alex Salmond
West Aberdeenshire North East Mike Rumbles
Ayr South of Scotland John Scott
Carrick Cummnock & Doon Valley South of Scotland Cathy Jamieson
Clydesdale South of Scotland Aileen Campbell
Cunninghame South South of Scotland Irene Oldfather
Dumfries South of Scotland Elaine Murray
East Lothian South of Scotland Iain Gray
Galloway & Upper Nithsdale South of Scotland Alasdair Morgan
Roxburgh & Berwickshire South of Scotland Euan Robson
Tweeddale Ettrick & Lauderdale South of Scotland Christine Grahame
Clydebank & Milngavie West of Scotland Des McNulty
Cunninghame North West of Scotland Allan Wilson
Dumbarton West of Scotland Jackie Baillie
Eastwood West of Scotland Jackson Carlaw
Greenock & Inverclyde West of Scotland Duncan McNeil
Paisley North West of Scotland Wendy Alexander
Paisley South West of Scotland Hugh Henry
Strathkelvin & Bearsd West of Scotland Jean Turner
West Renfrewshire West of Scotland Patricia Godman
Wednesday, February 14, 2007
When two tribes go to war (part four)
Stuart vs Grahame vs Purvis vs Brownlee
Appropriate that this is part 4 given that all four of the main political parties are locking horns in arguably the tightest constituency of all the 73 seats.
I have this image of sprawling red, blue, orange and yellow armies all converging on a large grassy plain. Fierce battles ensue. Howls of pain, bursts of anger, dirty tactics amidst all of the general mayhem.
And finally, the dust settles, the cacophony of noise dies down to eventual silence and one lady remains. Christine Grahame. She dusts herself down, stretches out to ease the odd ache or pain and then wanders off to find where the SNP post-election party is.
Or maybe I am slightly overestimating how passionate those in the shires of Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale can get.
However you want to look at it, this is a great seat to be involved in. The results in 2003 were:
Jeremy Purves (Lib Democrats) - 7,197
Christine Grahame (SNP) - 6,659
Lady Catherine Stuart (Labour) - 5,757
Derek Brownlee - (Conservative)- 5,686
(with thanks to www.alba.org.uk)
And as you'll have noticed, the same faces have returned for 2007.
Derek Brownlee is a current Conservative MSP. He was able to join the parliament after David Mundell (ex-MSP) won the local seat in the Westminster elections. Derek, being next on the regional list, therefore won his place in Holyrood. He is the finance spokesperson for the Conservatives and has a penchant for highlighting just how much cash Holyrood is 'wasting'. With a nation of Scottish people who supposedly have short arms and long pockets, it's probably not a bad approach to take.
Lady Catherine Maxwell Stuart, 21st Laird of Traquair is the only contender in 2003 who didn't make it into Holyrood. Not sure if the voters will have some sympathy for her given this fact but sometimes I find it hard to feel sorry for someone who is a Lady or is the 21st laird of anywhere. Then again, she does get my sympathies for being stuck in a position of being anti-establishment and having these titles foisted upon her.
Anyway, Lady Catherine runs Traquair Brewery in Innerleithen and also runs Traquair House. I did a quick search for this and it has bags of history related to it, far too much to even begin putting on this post but anyone with 5 minutes to spare should read this - http://www.aboutscotland.com/traquair/history.html
It does make me wonder why Lady Catherine is standing for Labour and not as a member of the SNP but each to their own. Either way, I have certainly added Traquair House to my places to visit list. And from the various quotes I've read about Lady Catherine, she seems quite a character. Doc Martin boots and a tattoo? I wasn't expecting that when I typed her name into Google, that's what I get for making swift judgements about people I suppose. (Yes, public admonishment is part of the learning process)
To be honest, for such an interesting character, I am half tempted to make this seat a Labour tactical voting effort, especially as the other 3 contenders will be MSPs whatever happens. But no, think big Jeff, no more Jack McConnell and a fresh SNP government mixing things up is the way forward.
So with that in mind, we turn to Christine Grahame. Shadow minister for social justice. An ex-solicitor and ex-teacher and one of the bigger personalities in the SNP. I always like to do a Google Search for the more interesting people who are standing and, unfortunately, all I could really find of tongue-in-cheek value was a piece in the SoS about Heroes and Villains. Not only was Christine the villain, but to really rub it in George W Bush was the hero.
Christine's offence was to complain about the coverage the English Ashes team were getting. On one hand, it's a total waste of time raising this motion as noone really cares how much coverage they get though on the other hand, I was a bit peeved that the whole cricket team were awarded OBEs in 2005. Now, given they got gubbed 5-0 on the away leg, does that mean they have to hand them back?
Anyway, Christine is a popular person around this constitutency and will be hopeful of snatching victory from…..
Jeremy Purvis - the sitting Lib Dem MSP. He was only 29 when he won in 2003 making him the youngest MSP in Holyrood. I believe there is a 19 year old Tory standing in Coatbridge and Chryston but, personally, I don't fancy his chances. Anyway, Jeremy has not held any posts within the LibLab administration it seems but I did manage to find some info on a policy proposal of his to allow physician-assisted suicide. In the end it didn't get significant MSP support. Shame really, these are the kinds of things a Scottish Parliament could push through with the backing of the public and show why devolution is working. Too often it seems an MSPs feet stay too still for fear that they put a foot wrong. Relentless media onslaughts and a generally pessimistic public doesn't help of course.
I was wondering recently how different Scotland would be without devolution. Not really that much different was the depressing conclusion. Hopefully from 2007 onwards, radical ideas like this one will get more of an airing in the debating chamber. And catch the public's attention.
But this blog is all about having a bit of an SNP bias, so it would be remiss of me as an SNP fan not to include the following quote from the Scotland on Sunday -
This air of cover-up was added to by his Liberal colleague, Jeremy Purves, whose slithering defence of the Executive was a deeply unpleasant illustration of all that is wrong with Scottish politics today. A young man with no experience but plenty of guile who clearly thinks it is not only clever, but right, to put party advantage before honesty and principle, he should be hanging his head in silent shame - not preening himself on the front benches.
Damn. I just noticed that although it was the Scotland on Sunday, the piece was penned by one Mike Russell. Not a coincidence, it's the former SNP MSP.
Well, here is the link anyway - http://news.scotsman.com/opinion.cfm?id=333062006
And that is that, a genuine 4-way seat. Those Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderians don't know how lucky they are.
Appropriate that this is part 4 given that all four of the main political parties are locking horns in arguably the tightest constituency of all the 73 seats.
I have this image of sprawling red, blue, orange and yellow armies all converging on a large grassy plain. Fierce battles ensue. Howls of pain, bursts of anger, dirty tactics amidst all of the general mayhem.
And finally, the dust settles, the cacophony of noise dies down to eventual silence and one lady remains. Christine Grahame. She dusts herself down, stretches out to ease the odd ache or pain and then wanders off to find where the SNP post-election party is.
Or maybe I am slightly overestimating how passionate those in the shires of Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale can get.
However you want to look at it, this is a great seat to be involved in. The results in 2003 were:
Jeremy Purves (Lib Democrats) - 7,197
Christine Grahame (SNP) - 6,659
Lady Catherine Stuart (Labour) - 5,757
Derek Brownlee - (Conservative)- 5,686
(with thanks to www.alba.org.uk)
And as you'll have noticed, the same faces have returned for 2007.
Derek Brownlee is a current Conservative MSP. He was able to join the parliament after David Mundell (ex-MSP) won the local seat in the Westminster elections. Derek, being next on the regional list, therefore won his place in Holyrood. He is the finance spokesperson for the Conservatives and has a penchant for highlighting just how much cash Holyrood is 'wasting'. With a nation of Scottish people who supposedly have short arms and long pockets, it's probably not a bad approach to take.
Lady Catherine Maxwell Stuart, 21st Laird of Traquair is the only contender in 2003 who didn't make it into Holyrood. Not sure if the voters will have some sympathy for her given this fact but sometimes I find it hard to feel sorry for someone who is a Lady or is the 21st laird of anywhere. Then again, she does get my sympathies for being stuck in a position of being anti-establishment and having these titles foisted upon her.
Anyway, Lady Catherine runs Traquair Brewery in Innerleithen and also runs Traquair House. I did a quick search for this and it has bags of history related to it, far too much to even begin putting on this post but anyone with 5 minutes to spare should read this - http://www.aboutscotland.com/traquair/history.html
It does make me wonder why Lady Catherine is standing for Labour and not as a member of the SNP but each to their own. Either way, I have certainly added Traquair House to my places to visit list. And from the various quotes I've read about Lady Catherine, she seems quite a character. Doc Martin boots and a tattoo? I wasn't expecting that when I typed her name into Google, that's what I get for making swift judgements about people I suppose. (Yes, public admonishment is part of the learning process)
To be honest, for such an interesting character, I am half tempted to make this seat a Labour tactical voting effort, especially as the other 3 contenders will be MSPs whatever happens. But no, think big Jeff, no more Jack McConnell and a fresh SNP government mixing things up is the way forward.
So with that in mind, we turn to Christine Grahame. Shadow minister for social justice. An ex-solicitor and ex-teacher and one of the bigger personalities in the SNP. I always like to do a Google Search for the more interesting people who are standing and, unfortunately, all I could really find of tongue-in-cheek value was a piece in the SoS about Heroes and Villains. Not only was Christine the villain, but to really rub it in George W Bush was the hero.
Christine's offence was to complain about the coverage the English Ashes team were getting. On one hand, it's a total waste of time raising this motion as noone really cares how much coverage they get though on the other hand, I was a bit peeved that the whole cricket team were awarded OBEs in 2005. Now, given they got gubbed 5-0 on the away leg, does that mean they have to hand them back?
Anyway, Christine is a popular person around this constitutency and will be hopeful of snatching victory from…..
Jeremy Purvis - the sitting Lib Dem MSP. He was only 29 when he won in 2003 making him the youngest MSP in Holyrood. I believe there is a 19 year old Tory standing in Coatbridge and Chryston but, personally, I don't fancy his chances. Anyway, Jeremy has not held any posts within the LibLab administration it seems but I did manage to find some info on a policy proposal of his to allow physician-assisted suicide. In the end it didn't get significant MSP support. Shame really, these are the kinds of things a Scottish Parliament could push through with the backing of the public and show why devolution is working. Too often it seems an MSPs feet stay too still for fear that they put a foot wrong. Relentless media onslaughts and a generally pessimistic public doesn't help of course.
I was wondering recently how different Scotland would be without devolution. Not really that much different was the depressing conclusion. Hopefully from 2007 onwards, radical ideas like this one will get more of an airing in the debating chamber. And catch the public's attention.
But this blog is all about having a bit of an SNP bias, so it would be remiss of me as an SNP fan not to include the following quote from the Scotland on Sunday -
This air of cover-up was added to by his Liberal colleague, Jeremy Purves, whose slithering defence of the Executive was a deeply unpleasant illustration of all that is wrong with Scottish politics today. A young man with no experience but plenty of guile who clearly thinks it is not only clever, but right, to put party advantage before honesty and principle, he should be hanging his head in silent shame - not preening himself on the front benches.
Damn. I just noticed that although it was the Scotland on Sunday, the piece was penned by one Mike Russell. Not a coincidence, it's the former SNP MSP.
Well, here is the link anyway - http://news.scotsman.com/opinion.cfm?id=333062006
And that is that, a genuine 4-way seat. Those Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderians don't know how lucky they are.
Tuesday, February 13, 2007
Duncan Thorp - The Perfect Protest Vote
There is a candidate standing in the regional vote in Lothian and also in the Meadows and Morningside council ward. His name is Duncan Thorp. He is 29. He has worked as a journalist and within the Scottish Parliament. He has no affiliation with any party. And he seems like a thoroughly decent guy.
His website is http://www.votethorp.com
I first became aware of his existence after reading the following post at http://scottishpolitics.typepad.com/my_weblog/2007/02/independent_can.html
Now let's be honest, a lot of people are quite fed up with political parties here in Scotland. The bickering, the tantrums, the constant toeing of party lines, the votes in parliament that have all of one party voting one way and all of another party voting the other way. Such robotic thinking and wilful obedience cannot be healthy. Charles Darwin for one would not be impressed with such a stagnant lack of variation going on here. One extra fresh face and truly independent viewpoint out of 129 may be considered insignificant by some but in this instance I would disagree.
Infact, I would say some of the strongest characters in the parliament are the Tommy Sheridans, the Margo MacDonalds, the Robin Harpers, the Jean Turners and the John Swinburnes. Not to mention Denis Canavan who I think all people from across the political spectrum have a special regard for.
If people choose to stay at home and not vote because they are fed up of the political parties, then they should quite frankly be ashamed of themselves. Really, I mean it. If there were 4 names on the ballot list, then fair enough, but I am always amazed at the number of names I can choose from on polling day and always more than a little annoyed that I hadn't heard of some of these people whatsoever during the campaign. Personally I blame the media but the public must take some of the blame for not fully seeking out who could best represent them in the debating chamber and for not having the guts to vote for someone they are impressed with but may well end up being a haven for wasted votes.
So this is me doing my bit for Duncan Thorp. I reckon he has a tough, tough task on his hands. Not that losing out this year would necessarily mean his campaign hadn't been a success of course. But he has the four main political parties to contend with locally, not to mention a genuine national 2-horse race which might suck wavering votes into its vortex, a fellow independent in the bellicose Margo McDonald and a Green party which is particularly strong in this neck of the global warming threatened woods. I would say Lothian is the hardest region to get elected in as an independent.
But in his favour, Duncan is a true independent and therefore a true free-thinking voice in the parliament. I don't think any of the other 128 MSPs come May 4th would be able to say the same. (Yes, note the subtly optimistic use of numbers there)
Tommy and Margo have very large chips on their shoulders, the Robin Harpers et al are forced to give opinions with a green bent to them, Jean Turner (if she gets back in) is somewhat confined to health issues for obvious reasons and similarly John Swinburne is representing a very specific and decidedly wrinkly slice of the Scottish population. Duncan would be able to give unshackled opinions on education, health, crime, arts, not to mention comments on reserved matters which seems to have many an MSP dazzled in a journalist's headlights. With a mandate from Lothian residents, he would be in a completely flexible and consequently relatively powerful position.
Duncan does have a policy page on his website, it is understandably broad and gives more of his outlook on certain areas rather than an idea about specific policies. For me, this is the ideal pitch, even the main parties' policies should be taken with a pinch of salt. After all, things change and the term of a parliament is more about a politician's integrity and personality regarding how he or she will deal with a sudden issue rather than what was written on an election leaflet some 2 or 3 years ago. For that reason, a healthy dose of true independents to keep the MSPs' integrity in check would do wonders for Holyrood.
And aside from holyrood and politics, on a more human level, after the election is over would you not feel just that little bit fuzzier, taller and prouder of your voting decisions when you saw Duncan Thorp on TV discussing the government's actions than you would have felt having seen Ian McKee, George Foulkes, Simon Clark or Gavin Brown standing in the same position.
If you are confused, they are the names of regional candidates likely to be voted in on the Lothian list vote on May 2007, potentially at the expense of Duncan Thorp.
So if you are not standing for parliament yourself and you are not impressed with any of the main political parties, you have to really ask yourself why you are not voting for Duncan Thorp.
Monday, February 12, 2007
When two tribes go to war (part three)
On the face of it, this contest is nothing special. Faithful Labour MSP facing the challenge of a fresh-faced, enthusiastic SNP candidate. But I think this is the perfect example of the SNP vs Labour campaign as a whole. Seat after seat I am seeing a new wave of SNP faces coming into the fold. A lot of name changes from 2003 and a renewed optimism and energy about how Scotland will be from 2007 onwards. Angela Constance typifies this energy and optimism from what I have read about her.
Many constituencies, Livingston included, have Labour MSPs who have been in their seats for 8 years. Not big names on the national scene but I daresay reliable MSPs at a local level. But the SNP are poking and prodding them harder than they have been in the past 2 elections and it will be fascinating to see if this poking and prodding becomes a push on May 3rd.
For me, this seat encapsulates the entire essence of the SNP/Labour battle and for that reason is definitely one to watch.
As for a few tidbits surrounding the Livingston contest, I found the following…...
I love this story, http://election.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=324&id=1918542006
And for me, Bristow's response shows again why this seat is an interesting one to watch, he seems so wooden and so staid in his comment. The kind of tiring political comment that switches people off. And yes, all parties are guilty of it. Of course you never know what else he said, or how he said it, he could easily have been laughing at the time and it just happens to sound rather dull in black and white. But it's a funny story, bit of a red face for the SNP but really, trying to make some political hay out of it as Bristow does is possibly more embarrassing. Actually, the SNP comment shows he/she at least has a bit of life about them.
But then, I do always admire someone who breaks with party ranks for something they believe in or a worthwhile compromise - http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=591542003
Then again, someone who thinks that SNP voters are only voting for independence is just plain wrong - http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/letters.cfm?id=173992007&bad=338072
I couldn’t find much chat on Angela Constance however, alba.org.uk always has good info and interestingly, she stood for the Livingston Westminster seat in the 2005 general election receiving 21.6% of the vote. At the by-election in Sep 2005 she missed out with 32.7% of the vote. It seems Westminster's loss could be Holyrood's gain in 2007.
Many constituencies, Livingston included, have Labour MSPs who have been in their seats for 8 years. Not big names on the national scene but I daresay reliable MSPs at a local level. But the SNP are poking and prodding them harder than they have been in the past 2 elections and it will be fascinating to see if this poking and prodding becomes a push on May 3rd.
For me, this seat encapsulates the entire essence of the SNP/Labour battle and for that reason is definitely one to watch.
As for a few tidbits surrounding the Livingston contest, I found the following…...
I love this story, http://election.scotsman.com/topics.cfm?tid=324&id=1918542006
And for me, Bristow's response shows again why this seat is an interesting one to watch, he seems so wooden and so staid in his comment. The kind of tiring political comment that switches people off. And yes, all parties are guilty of it. Of course you never know what else he said, or how he said it, he could easily have been laughing at the time and it just happens to sound rather dull in black and white. But it's a funny story, bit of a red face for the SNP but really, trying to make some political hay out of it as Bristow does is possibly more embarrassing. Actually, the SNP comment shows he/she at least has a bit of life about them.
But then, I do always admire someone who breaks with party ranks for something they believe in or a worthwhile compromise - http://edinburghnews.scotsman.com/index.cfm?id=591542003
Then again, someone who thinks that SNP voters are only voting for independence is just plain wrong - http://thescotsman.scotsman.com/letters.cfm?id=173992007&bad=338072
I couldn’t find much chat on Angela Constance however, alba.org.uk always has good info and interestingly, she stood for the Livingston Westminster seat in the 2005 general election receiving 21.6% of the vote. At the by-election in Sep 2005 she missed out with 32.7% of the vote. It seems Westminster's loss could be Holyrood's gain in 2007.
Poor form by the Liberal D's
Ok, I wanted this blog to be pretty much only about the constitutencies and all the different angles and different outcomes the numbers could throw up. As readers should have spotted by now, I love my statistics. But if someone fiddles the numbers, I feel personally violated. Well, a tad aggrieved at least.
So for that reason I feel moved to highlight some poor form by the Liberal Democrats. This was spotted in my (fruitless) search for who their candidates are in various seats across Scotland.
Please see the graph in the top right hand corner at the folowing link - http://edinburghcentral-libdems.org.uk/
The difference between Lib Dem and SNP is 5% and the difference between Labour and Lib Dem is 9%. Yet note the different sizes in the coloured chart, Lib Dem's apparently breathing down Labour's neck with the SNP way out of the running.
I do happen to agree somewhat with the tagline "too close to call" but I maintain that this is a 3-way race, rather than a Lib-Dem vs Labour shoot-out. 2007 also sees a stronger challenge from SNP and the same candidate for Lib Dem, compared to 2003.
If I thought otherwise, I would genuinely urge SNP to vote Lib Dem as I would love to see the red hegemony toppled and Siobhan Mathers seems to have some cracking experience to bring to the Holyrood table. But there's no point giving up seats that are still there for the taking. Despite what some dubious bar charts may tell you.
So for that reason I feel moved to highlight some poor form by the Liberal Democrats. This was spotted in my (fruitless) search for who their candidates are in various seats across Scotland.
Please see the graph in the top right hand corner at the folowing link - http://edinburghcentral-libdems.org.uk/
The difference between Lib Dem and SNP is 5% and the difference between Labour and Lib Dem is 9%. Yet note the different sizes in the coloured chart, Lib Dem's apparently breathing down Labour's neck with the SNP way out of the running.
I do happen to agree somewhat with the tagline "too close to call" but I maintain that this is a 3-way race, rather than a Lib-Dem vs Labour shoot-out. 2007 also sees a stronger challenge from SNP and the same candidate for Lib Dem, compared to 2003.
If I thought otherwise, I would genuinely urge SNP to vote Lib Dem as I would love to see the red hegemony toppled and Siobhan Mathers seems to have some cracking experience to bring to the Holyrood table. But there's no point giving up seats that are still there for the taking. Despite what some dubious bar charts may tell you.
When two tribes go to war (part two)
Lyon vs Mather
I will really keep my eye on this one over the next few months. Infact, I'm tempted to fill in a subscription for the local Argyll & Bute newspaper(s) to see how nasty this election scrap gets. (Yes, I typed that with twisted glee).
The reason why I think it could get nasty is that Jim Mather is becoming a high profile SNP player and will be very keen to win FPTP rather than have to rely on the regional vote. The constitutency is Lib Dem territory so George Lyon won't be keen to let this one slip through the liberals' fingers. They have very few target seats so any seats lost probably won't be made up elsewhere.
And, as for the spice/nastiness, here are some key facts surrounding this one:-
George Lyon was involved in an unsavoury incident involving the attempted blocking of condolences and speeches in honour of the late SNP member Winnie Ewing.
George is also the MSP who claimed the highest level of expenses in 2004/05. I have scoured the internet but I have found no case for the defence from Mr Lyon himself. I suspect in this instance that the silence is deafening. Times are hard for self-employed farmers after all...
(Incidentally, at 10m GBP a year, allowances and expenses incurred by all MSPs leaves a very sour taste in the mouth indeed. Reminds me of one of their first bits of business in parliament, giving themselves a payrise. And a medal.)
Though I have no specific examples at my disposal, Jim Mather seems the type to give as good as he gets so as the rhetoric increases and the adrenalin kicks in, this one is sure to hit boiling point by late April.
EDIT: I just hope I am reading this correctly though. SNP finished 2nd in 1999, 3rd in 2003 and 4th in 2005. Maybe they have no chance of taking it after all if the Argyll & Buters are set in their Lib Dem ways. If anyone knows anything about this seat, please leave a comment helping me out.
But then, the more people know about silly things like this (which seem to be par for the course for Mr Lyon), then maybe there is hope after all
http://fibdems.blogspot.com/2007/01/argyll-fibdem-charade.html
This one is worth a read too for those who are interested - http://fibdems.blogspot.com/2006/06/nice-jobs-if-you-can-get-them.html
I will really keep my eye on this one over the next few months. Infact, I'm tempted to fill in a subscription for the local Argyll & Bute newspaper(s) to see how nasty this election scrap gets. (Yes, I typed that with twisted glee).
The reason why I think it could get nasty is that Jim Mather is becoming a high profile SNP player and will be very keen to win FPTP rather than have to rely on the regional vote. The constitutency is Lib Dem territory so George Lyon won't be keen to let this one slip through the liberals' fingers. They have very few target seats so any seats lost probably won't be made up elsewhere.
And, as for the spice/nastiness, here are some key facts surrounding this one:-
George Lyon was involved in an unsavoury incident involving the attempted blocking of condolences and speeches in honour of the late SNP member Winnie Ewing.
George is also the MSP who claimed the highest level of expenses in 2004/05. I have scoured the internet but I have found no case for the defence from Mr Lyon himself. I suspect in this instance that the silence is deafening. Times are hard for self-employed farmers after all...
(Incidentally, at 10m GBP a year, allowances and expenses incurred by all MSPs leaves a very sour taste in the mouth indeed. Reminds me of one of their first bits of business in parliament, giving themselves a payrise. And a medal.)
Though I have no specific examples at my disposal, Jim Mather seems the type to give as good as he gets so as the rhetoric increases and the adrenalin kicks in, this one is sure to hit boiling point by late April.
EDIT: I just hope I am reading this correctly though. SNP finished 2nd in 1999, 3rd in 2003 and 4th in 2005. Maybe they have no chance of taking it after all if the Argyll & Buters are set in their Lib Dem ways. If anyone knows anything about this seat, please leave a comment helping me out.
But then, the more people know about silly things like this (which seem to be par for the course for Mr Lyon), then maybe there is hope after all
http://fibdems.blogspot.com/2007/01/argyll-fibdem-charade.html
This one is worth a read too for those who are interested - http://fibdems.blogspot.com/2006/06/nice-jobs-if-you-can-get-them.html
When two tribes go to war....
The Scottish election is played out in the media as one large battle. Alex vs Jack vs Nicol vs Annabel. With a few independent skirmishes and fisticuffs along the way.
That's the national picture and it is somewhat misleading as we are not electing a leader. The real struggle, where the war is won or lost, is in 73 separate pitched areas. Battle lines drawn long ago and contenders pitted against each other gladatorial style. Some battle-hardened and others wet behind the ears, ready to get their sleeves rolled up and their hands dirty.
Ideological warfare, no holds barred.
Are you not entertained?
For those who need more enticement to be wooed by this spectacle, I have picked out 5 of the bloodiest and more evenly matched contests that will no doubt be among the most exciting moments on the morning of May 4th.
Sturgeon vs Jackson
This is a belter, really. I will be totally honest, I was never a fan of Nicola. Too often I thought she got a topic between her teeth and got so wrapped up in it that (1) she didn't know when to let go and (2) she got so het up that she couldn't land the devastating blow even when the Labour cheek, head or butt was there for the slapping, thumping or kicking.
But time has made me warm to her more and more, and I think with her elevated position in the parliament she has really done fantastically well. Have there been any murmurings or suggestions about displacing her? (except for me stupidly having just done so there). Not at all, and for the SNP that's pretty damn good as they can be a bit SSP-like in building themselves up only for them to bring it all crashing down to earth again.
Anyway, Nicola is on the crest of a wave. She is perhaps unlucky to be standing in Govan but you have to respect her decision to persevere in the deepest, darkest Labour territory. Maybe having something stuck in your teeth isn't such a bad thing after all.
As for Gordon Jackson, a (rather outdated) SoS article says it best...
Despite strongly indicating he would give up his legal work for his political career, last year (2005) Jackson earned £243,500 in legal aid fees on top of his £50,300 Holyrood salary.
An investigation by this newspaper showed that Jackson was one of the least active of all Holyrood's 129 MSPs. Between May 2003 and October 2004 he asked only one written parliamentary question: a query placed for him by ministers about a wind farm in Ayrshire.
Senior Labour insiders also claim he does not attend meetings of party MSPs at Holyrood, meaning he may miss out on vital briefings and discussions.
About that 243,500 legal aid fees. Check out this quote from Jackson in 1999: "I think being an MSP would be so demanding, and it is my first priority, that the legal work would tend to wither and disappear." So a quarter of a million is law work that has been withering away for 5 years? Damn, I knew I should have gone for the bar exam at university instead of simply going to the bar.
Thought this was rather amusing also (courtesy of Wikipedia) - his habit of spending large amounts of time away at Court and then returning to Parliament just before the vote at 5.00pm has earned him the knickname "Crackerjack" - after the children's programme Crackerjack that famously started at 4.55pm.
If you were a Govan constituent, would you want your issue dealt with by Mr Laissez-Faire or by Ms Bit-between-the-teeth.
Well, amazingly, this seat is still probably too close to call. It'd be a tough blow for Nicola were she to lose it and whether the blow was a slap, thump or a kick, she'd feel it for a long, long time.
Four further showdowns to follow...
EDIT: I often check out the member's interests page on the parliament website, it is worth a look for your local MSP though don't expect to find "has one flat in Edinburgh, one in Glasgow and runs a secret corrupt diamond business in deepest Sudan". (Guess what movie I watched last night!)
Anyway, Gordon Jackson's was interesting so I thought I'd add to the post here...
He is Queen's Counsel (at 120k a year, not sure if that's on top of the quarter million). And also, this seems like there could be a potential conflict of interest, advising the queen and voting on devolved matters? Actually, probably not. He also owns six flats which, as a wannabe property tycoon myself, is rather impressive. Not to mention the unremunderated director at Kilmarnock Football Club. I love these wee tidbits about people. Seriously, get on that site.
As for Nicola, a few trips to Europe, nothing worth shouting about really.. Though flights, accommodation and meals for a trip to Catalonia came in at only 300 quid. Good effort!
That's the national picture and it is somewhat misleading as we are not electing a leader. The real struggle, where the war is won or lost, is in 73 separate pitched areas. Battle lines drawn long ago and contenders pitted against each other gladatorial style. Some battle-hardened and others wet behind the ears, ready to get their sleeves rolled up and their hands dirty.
Ideological warfare, no holds barred.
Are you not entertained?
For those who need more enticement to be wooed by this spectacle, I have picked out 5 of the bloodiest and more evenly matched contests that will no doubt be among the most exciting moments on the morning of May 4th.
Sturgeon vs Jackson
This is a belter, really. I will be totally honest, I was never a fan of Nicola. Too often I thought she got a topic between her teeth and got so wrapped up in it that (1) she didn't know when to let go and (2) she got so het up that she couldn't land the devastating blow even when the Labour cheek, head or butt was there for the slapping, thumping or kicking.
But time has made me warm to her more and more, and I think with her elevated position in the parliament she has really done fantastically well. Have there been any murmurings or suggestions about displacing her? (except for me stupidly having just done so there). Not at all, and for the SNP that's pretty damn good as they can be a bit SSP-like in building themselves up only for them to bring it all crashing down to earth again.
Anyway, Nicola is on the crest of a wave. She is perhaps unlucky to be standing in Govan but you have to respect her decision to persevere in the deepest, darkest Labour territory. Maybe having something stuck in your teeth isn't such a bad thing after all.
As for Gordon Jackson, a (rather outdated) SoS article says it best...
Despite strongly indicating he would give up his legal work for his political career, last year (2005) Jackson earned £243,500 in legal aid fees on top of his £50,300 Holyrood salary.
An investigation by this newspaper showed that Jackson was one of the least active of all Holyrood's 129 MSPs. Between May 2003 and October 2004 he asked only one written parliamentary question: a query placed for him by ministers about a wind farm in Ayrshire.
Senior Labour insiders also claim he does not attend meetings of party MSPs at Holyrood, meaning he may miss out on vital briefings and discussions.
About that 243,500 legal aid fees. Check out this quote from Jackson in 1999: "I think being an MSP would be so demanding, and it is my first priority, that the legal work would tend to wither and disappear." So a quarter of a million is law work that has been withering away for 5 years? Damn, I knew I should have gone for the bar exam at university instead of simply going to the bar.
Thought this was rather amusing also (courtesy of Wikipedia) - his habit of spending large amounts of time away at Court and then returning to Parliament just before the vote at 5.00pm has earned him the knickname "Crackerjack" - after the children's programme Crackerjack that famously started at 4.55pm.
If you were a Govan constituent, would you want your issue dealt with by Mr Laissez-Faire or by Ms Bit-between-the-teeth.
Well, amazingly, this seat is still probably too close to call. It'd be a tough blow for Nicola were she to lose it and whether the blow was a slap, thump or a kick, she'd feel it for a long, long time.
Four further showdowns to follow...
EDIT: I often check out the member's interests page on the parliament website, it is worth a look for your local MSP though don't expect to find "has one flat in Edinburgh, one in Glasgow and runs a secret corrupt diamond business in deepest Sudan". (Guess what movie I watched last night!)
Anyway, Gordon Jackson's was interesting so I thought I'd add to the post here...
He is Queen's Counsel (at 120k a year, not sure if that's on top of the quarter million). And also, this seems like there could be a potential conflict of interest, advising the queen and voting on devolved matters? Actually, probably not. He also owns six flats which, as a wannabe property tycoon myself, is rather impressive. Not to mention the unremunderated director at Kilmarnock Football Club. I love these wee tidbits about people. Seriously, get on that site.
As for Nicola, a few trips to Europe, nothing worth shouting about really.. Though flights, accommodation and meals for a trip to Catalonia came in at only 300 quid. Good effort!
Deja vu all over again
A poll, published for The Herald, for the period 27th Feb to the 5th of March in 2003 had the SNP more or less matching Labour. 32% SNP to Labour's 34%. The 2nd vote a dead heat at 30%.
They were exciting times, a genuine head-to-head was on the cards. Then doubts were raised over SNP finances, people decided change was 'too risky', the SNP didn't pack many strong punches as the election loomed. It all made for a rather dull last month of campaigning and an excruciatingly painful evening as a few seats changed hands but Labour and Lib Dem, as we all know, lived to tell the tale.
Now the polls have SNP in a stronger position than this time 4 years ago. But I can't seem to shake a rather depressing suspicion that we will be reliving Feb-May 2003 over the next few months. And it has started already. A rather strong Labour triumvariate of Wendy, Cathy J and someone else (damn my poor memory) tried their best to tear into SNP finances. Assisted by some Professor Midwinter person who had created the original analysis. Challenges have been made to the independence of this professor to comment as he may well have a Labour bias. I have read a lot about this and without sitting down for 48 hours with a calculator I don't really know who is right and wrong. I can therefore easily imagine that most people reading such stories will not know what or who to believe, but will be left with more than a modicum of doubt about how an SNP administration would run things. This, to me, is understandable but also rather unfair as spending plans for Labour (the sitting government) do not seem to have the same rigorous going over. Of course a new SNP government will have a rocky ride when they start off, maybe I'm naive but that's part of the excitement for me. Exciting times, off with the stabilizers and see how we do. Does anyone else think Scotland is the equivalent of a 30-odd year old who still lives with their parents?
Anyway, apart from that, it's frustrating as this is the one area that I thought the SNP had to be water-tight. It is Labour's only real method of attack on the SNP so I would have hoped that any queries over SNP spending policy would have been easily swatted down after months of preparation. Seemingly this has not been the case, despite my having confidence that an SNP-led Scotland would do just fine financially.
So if the future SNP "fully costed" manifesto is a bit ham-fisted and shaky, I suspect poll figures for the SNP, just like 4 years ago, could wind their way down the slippery slope to the mid-20s. I sincerely hope not but through my yellow-tinted spectacles, I'll keep my eyes peeled for reasons to not be so cheerful and adjust my expectations accordingly.
They were exciting times, a genuine head-to-head was on the cards. Then doubts were raised over SNP finances, people decided change was 'too risky', the SNP didn't pack many strong punches as the election loomed. It all made for a rather dull last month of campaigning and an excruciatingly painful evening as a few seats changed hands but Labour and Lib Dem, as we all know, lived to tell the tale.
Now the polls have SNP in a stronger position than this time 4 years ago. But I can't seem to shake a rather depressing suspicion that we will be reliving Feb-May 2003 over the next few months. And it has started already. A rather strong Labour triumvariate of Wendy, Cathy J and someone else (damn my poor memory) tried their best to tear into SNP finances. Assisted by some Professor Midwinter person who had created the original analysis. Challenges have been made to the independence of this professor to comment as he may well have a Labour bias. I have read a lot about this and without sitting down for 48 hours with a calculator I don't really know who is right and wrong. I can therefore easily imagine that most people reading such stories will not know what or who to believe, but will be left with more than a modicum of doubt about how an SNP administration would run things. This, to me, is understandable but also rather unfair as spending plans for Labour (the sitting government) do not seem to have the same rigorous going over. Of course a new SNP government will have a rocky ride when they start off, maybe I'm naive but that's part of the excitement for me. Exciting times, off with the stabilizers and see how we do. Does anyone else think Scotland is the equivalent of a 30-odd year old who still lives with their parents?
Anyway, apart from that, it's frustrating as this is the one area that I thought the SNP had to be water-tight. It is Labour's only real method of attack on the SNP so I would have hoped that any queries over SNP spending policy would have been easily swatted down after months of preparation. Seemingly this has not been the case, despite my having confidence that an SNP-led Scotland would do just fine financially.
So if the future SNP "fully costed" manifesto is a bit ham-fisted and shaky, I suspect poll figures for the SNP, just like 4 years ago, could wind their way down the slippery slope to the mid-20s. I sincerely hope not but through my yellow-tinted spectacles, I'll keep my eyes peeled for reasons to not be so cheerful and adjust my expectations accordingly.
Sunday, February 11, 2007
Jean Re-Turner - Labour dealt possible blow
From Scottish Political News (http://scottishpolitics.typepad.com/my_weblog/) I learned that Jean Turner is making a 'dramatic' push for a second term. Difficult to say how this will go down with David Whitton standing this year. The benefits of an agruably more popular Labour candidate than in 2003 may outweigh the negative effect of a relatively unpopular Labour administration.
Jean Turner doesn't have much of a single issue this time around with the potential closure of Stobhill not being the controversy it once was.
For now, I will entertain the notion of Jean Turner being a strong challenger, 2nd or 1st in this seat so this leads me to now suggest SNP supporters to back Jean.
Note that there will be no difference to the second vote as Labour are not expected to win any regional MSPs and an independent getting in won't skew the numbers in any way. The result of Jean winning would simply be one less Labour MSP and more of a rainbow feel to the parliament. In such a tight election race, this result could make all the difference once the dust has settled.
Jean Turner doesn't have much of a single issue this time around with the potential closure of Stobhill not being the controversy it once was.
For now, I will entertain the notion of Jean Turner being a strong challenger, 2nd or 1st in this seat so this leads me to now suggest SNP supporters to back Jean.
Note that there will be no difference to the second vote as Labour are not expected to win any regional MSPs and an independent getting in won't skew the numbers in any way. The result of Jean winning would simply be one less Labour MSP and more of a rainbow feel to the parliament. In such a tight election race, this result could make all the difference once the dust has settled.
Thursday, February 8, 2007
A wasted second vote...?
There is something that really fascinates me as an ex-Statistician and all-round Politics nerd. And that is some Scottish people's use of the second vote. Now, I don't have a problem with who people want to vote for at all. Labour, SNP, Greens, BNP, Fascists or the Let's Kill Babies party. Really, it's all about being free to express yourself. But come on now, why would you vote for Labour with your 2nd vote in Glasgow or West of Scotland. I mean honestly...
Approximately 400,000 Labour votes were wasted in the last election in the second vote as they were used in constitutencies where there was no chance a Labour candidates was going to nick a seat. To me it sort of shows the blind loyalty that large patches of Scotland have for the supposed socialists of the tartan land.
As I say, it's not up to me to judge really except, dammit, I can't help it. Do people not understand the electoral system? It's possible, it took me more than a few goes to pick it up and I had one thing that many don't. A desire to want to know how something as dull as an election process actually works.
So it does undermine the system if those who know how it works can vote tactically whereas those who aren't too sure just blindly vote for their favourite party regardless. But if we can just assume that all Scots who don't understand the Holyrood election process are spread across all parties equally then it's not that big a deal.
Anyway, how can we make this work for the SNP (putting my yellow-tinted spectacles back on for a moment).
Well, I've taken the constitutencies where SNP do not take a regional seat, and then apportioned their expected share of the vote across all parties except Labour in accordance with these parties' expected share of the vote (this is based on the recent ICM poll by the way).
The result?
Well, using my slightly pessimistic figures only North East has a scenario where SNP do not get a single regional MSP. And this would give one less Labour and one more Lib Dem MSP thanks to the second poll.
And using my SNP optimistic approach of matching Labour for FPTP seats, there are 3 constitutencies where they don't have any regional MSPs. Central, North East and Fife. And apportioning out the votes in the same way as above would have Labour losing FOUR seats and Lib Dems, Tories, Socialists and the Old Fogey party all picking up one each.
Thus simultaneously increasing the rainbow flavour of the parliament and denying Labour a quartet of yes men or women to back up their numbers.
Of course, not all SNP voters will see the merits of voting for the Conservatives/Lib Dems/SSP/Baby Killing Party to stop Labour but hopefully enough will to make the difference in the odd region here and there….
The question is, how do we explain this to SNP voters without Labour voters getting a whiff of what's going on.
When's the next Old Firm game on again….?
EDIT: Maybe it's best not to go for that kind of tactical voting as we get the following scenario as the final result!
Labour - 39
SNP - 39
Lib Dem - 18
Tory - 19
Green - 8
So Greens and Lib Dems would be licking their lips at doing shuttle runs between Labour and SNP to see who wants that 1 seat majority the most.
God I love elections...
Approximately 400,000 Labour votes were wasted in the last election in the second vote as they were used in constitutencies where there was no chance a Labour candidates was going to nick a seat. To me it sort of shows the blind loyalty that large patches of Scotland have for the supposed socialists of the tartan land.
As I say, it's not up to me to judge really except, dammit, I can't help it. Do people not understand the electoral system? It's possible, it took me more than a few goes to pick it up and I had one thing that many don't. A desire to want to know how something as dull as an election process actually works.
So it does undermine the system if those who know how it works can vote tactically whereas those who aren't too sure just blindly vote for their favourite party regardless. But if we can just assume that all Scots who don't understand the Holyrood election process are spread across all parties equally then it's not that big a deal.
Anyway, how can we make this work for the SNP (putting my yellow-tinted spectacles back on for a moment).
Well, I've taken the constitutencies where SNP do not take a regional seat, and then apportioned their expected share of the vote across all parties except Labour in accordance with these parties' expected share of the vote (this is based on the recent ICM poll by the way).
The result?
Well, using my slightly pessimistic figures only North East has a scenario where SNP do not get a single regional MSP. And this would give one less Labour and one more Lib Dem MSP thanks to the second poll.
And using my SNP optimistic approach of matching Labour for FPTP seats, there are 3 constitutencies where they don't have any regional MSPs. Central, North East and Fife. And apportioning out the votes in the same way as above would have Labour losing FOUR seats and Lib Dems, Tories, Socialists and the Old Fogey party all picking up one each.
Thus simultaneously increasing the rainbow flavour of the parliament and denying Labour a quartet of yes men or women to back up their numbers.
Of course, not all SNP voters will see the merits of voting for the Conservatives/Lib Dems/SSP/Baby Killing Party to stop Labour but hopefully enough will to make the difference in the odd region here and there….
The question is, how do we explain this to SNP voters without Labour voters getting a whiff of what's going on.
When's the next Old Firm game on again….?
EDIT: Maybe it's best not to go for that kind of tactical voting as we get the following scenario as the final result!
Labour - 39
SNP - 39
Lib Dem - 18
Tory - 19
Green - 8
So Greens and Lib Dems would be licking their lips at doing shuttle runs between Labour and SNP to see who wants that 1 seat majority the most.
God I love elections...
Tuesday, February 6, 2007
Prediction - West of Scotland
The West of Scotland, another area that was a clean sweep for the Red army in 2003. Some interesting names in here, Jackie Baillie, Ross Finnie, Duncan MacNeil, Jackson Carlaw, Hugh Henry, Bill Wilson, David Whitton, Jean Turner and Wendy Alexander.
I'll be totally honest, the thought of Wendy Alexander as First Minister is only marginally less exciting than the thought of an SNP government. I daresay (and I should perhaps whisper this) if she was touted now as the next leader and rumoured to be instated sooner rather than later, then I think Labour would get a bump in the polls faster than Wendy can actually speak (which I've been told is very fast indeed).
I have considered the "anyone but Labour" mentality, and accepted it, but "anyone but Jack" isn't so bad an outlook either in my view. No offence to the guy, he tries his best. But therein lies the rub.
Either way, blasting a hole in the Labour fortress of West Scotland wouldn't be a bad thing for Scottish politics at all...
Clydebank and Milngavie - Des McNulty (sitting Labour MSP) vs Gil Paterson (SNP stalwart). Despite a large majority for Labour, I see this as being too close to call actually. Gil is a stronger candidate than in prior years and though Clydebank probably has a few staunch Labour areas, I think Milngavie might be in the mood for a change aswell as other parts of the constituency. Both contenders look like similar sorts of guys, decent, down-to-earth types so, yes, difficult to find an angle on this one.
One easy thing is, no tactical voting is required if you want an SNP win as it is a straight two-man race.
Cunninghame North - That pesky Campbell Martin might ruffle a few SNP feathers here as he is standing as an independent.
Campbell was the guy who criticised John Swinney's leadership for a prolonged period, ultimately resulting in expulsion from the party. I can only see him taking votes from the SNP and, perhaps crucially, may well take enough votes to give Allan Wilson a relatively easy ride to victory.
Dumbarton - Jackie Baillie should walk this one for Labour in my eyes. She seems a popular, likeable lady and I'm sure has enough support to get through unscathed.
And she was born in Hong Kong. Interesting...
No tactical voting required here. SNP to finish second I'd say.
Eastwood - You know, if you put 4 shapes in a row, a circle, a square, a star and a triangle and then ask someone to pick one, the majority of people will go for the star. It catches the eye easier as it has more points to it and is just more interesting on the face of things without digging any deeper.
Jackson Carlaw is a star in my eyes. I don't know anything about the man but his name just leaps off the page, it is the political equivalent of The Unbearable Lightness of Being which my eyes somehow get drawn to everytime I walk into Waterstones or Borders. I'd vote for him without even thinking about it.
Now add the fact that Eastwood is the Tory party's 4th target seat and Mr Carlaw is apparently the rising star (there's that word again) in Scottish Tory circles. I think he's my tip for Tory success story of the night.
Interestingly, a win here for Jackson would lead to Annabel Goldie only scraping her regional seat on the seventh round. Given my dodgy numbers work and large margin of error, she is by no means safe. I wouldn't wish an embarrassing exit on Annabel though. A Conservative blood-bath from May 4th onwards is something I'm kind of looking forward to.
Greenock and Inverclyde - It's easy to forget that Ross Finnie is a regional list MSP. He seems to get everywhere so I just assumed he had a constitutency all of his own somewhere. Not so seemingly, and he goes up against Duncan MacNeil in Greenock and Inverclyde. Technically this is a safe Labour seat but I don't see why Ross can't give Duncan a run for his money.
I really don't like to bad mouth people (no honestly, I don't) but from what I've seen on the media Duncan MacNeil hasn't exactly covered himself in glory thus far in the campaign which can only help Mr Finnie's plight.
SNP fans should consider tactically voting for Ross Finnie, freeing up a regional list seat that the SNP could grab.
Paisley North - Wendy Alexander to win this seat with an arm tied behind her back, eyes closed and hopping on one leg.
SNP voters, make sure to get down to those booths to drop off your 2nd vote.
Paisley South - On the other hand....
Hugh Henry is the sitting MSP here. He faces not only the challenge of SNP's Fiona McLeod but also the challenge of independent Clive Fairweather.
This is only no. 11 on the SNP target list based on 2003 figures and the challenge of Clive could help or could hinder the SNP. I don't know too much about Mr Fairweather but from alba.org.uk:
On the 26 th August 2006, Clive Fairweather said he would contest Paisley South against Deputy Justice Minister Hugh Henry unless the Exectutive adressed the problem of persisten young offenders. Henry was responsible for shutting down the South-Lanarkshire based Airborne Initiative which was an alternative to prison for 18 - 25 year olds.
Difficult to tell how strong this challenge will be, but with such a tight race, it is a welcome addition to the fold (I hope).
Fiona McLeod to run this one very tight indeed against the deputy minister for justice. No tactical voting required unless Clive is seen as the main challenge.
Strathkelvin and Bearsden - Moments of true brilliance happen in this constituency. Jean Turner won here at the last Holyrood election. Jo Swinson won here in the last Westminster election. And I was born here in February 1980.
This year, however, heavyweight David Whitton of Labour will stand in what is usually a happy hunting ground for the Labour party. Expect a strong showing from both SNP and Lib Dem but they may well take votes from each other.
I can't see David doing anything other than winning unfortunately. And neither Lib Dem nor SNP are clear 2nd favourites so tactical voting just wouldn't work either. Might aswell vote SNP and cross your toes.
BREAKING NEWS on the 12th of Feb (my birthday, told you it was a special day) has it that Jean Turner is seeking a second term as the local MSP for Strathkelvin and Bearsden. This shakes up everything and surely makes Jean as equal favourite with David Whitton. Therefore, I recommend that SNP people, and Lib Dem and Tory, back Jean to keep Labour at bay.
West Renfrewshire - An interesting one to finish off with. A 3 way horse race between Annabel Goldie, Patricia Godman (Labour MSP) and Bill Wilson (SNP challenger). It's bloody difficult to call actually. Annabel Goldie does come over very well in the press, SNP are on a high right now and you can never write off a sitting Labour MSP in the West of Scotland so, finally, I'm copping out and not going to call it.
No tactical voting though, come on Bill!
As for my take on the regional MSPs who will get through here. My reckoning is...
SNP to take 4 seats - Stewart Maxwell, Gil Paterson, Ken Gibson and Bill Wilson with 29% of the vote.
Ross Finnie to get the Lib Dem seat unless he manages to win his Greenock constituency. Lib Dems to poll 12.9% in the second vote here.
Annabel Goldie to squeak through on the 7th round as previously discussed. Tories polling 14.2% for this one.
And the Greens to get one MSP with 7.7% of the 2nd vote this time around.
Wow it's exciting stuff!
I'll be totally honest, the thought of Wendy Alexander as First Minister is only marginally less exciting than the thought of an SNP government. I daresay (and I should perhaps whisper this) if she was touted now as the next leader and rumoured to be instated sooner rather than later, then I think Labour would get a bump in the polls faster than Wendy can actually speak (which I've been told is very fast indeed).
I have considered the "anyone but Labour" mentality, and accepted it, but "anyone but Jack" isn't so bad an outlook either in my view. No offence to the guy, he tries his best. But therein lies the rub.
Either way, blasting a hole in the Labour fortress of West Scotland wouldn't be a bad thing for Scottish politics at all...
Clydebank and Milngavie - Des McNulty (sitting Labour MSP) vs Gil Paterson (SNP stalwart). Despite a large majority for Labour, I see this as being too close to call actually. Gil is a stronger candidate than in prior years and though Clydebank probably has a few staunch Labour areas, I think Milngavie might be in the mood for a change aswell as other parts of the constituency. Both contenders look like similar sorts of guys, decent, down-to-earth types so, yes, difficult to find an angle on this one.
One easy thing is, no tactical voting is required if you want an SNP win as it is a straight two-man race.
Cunninghame North - That pesky Campbell Martin might ruffle a few SNP feathers here as he is standing as an independent.
Campbell was the guy who criticised John Swinney's leadership for a prolonged period, ultimately resulting in expulsion from the party. I can only see him taking votes from the SNP and, perhaps crucially, may well take enough votes to give Allan Wilson a relatively easy ride to victory.
Dumbarton - Jackie Baillie should walk this one for Labour in my eyes. She seems a popular, likeable lady and I'm sure has enough support to get through unscathed.
And she was born in Hong Kong. Interesting...
No tactical voting required here. SNP to finish second I'd say.
Eastwood - You know, if you put 4 shapes in a row, a circle, a square, a star and a triangle and then ask someone to pick one, the majority of people will go for the star. It catches the eye easier as it has more points to it and is just more interesting on the face of things without digging any deeper.
Jackson Carlaw is a star in my eyes. I don't know anything about the man but his name just leaps off the page, it is the political equivalent of The Unbearable Lightness of Being which my eyes somehow get drawn to everytime I walk into Waterstones or Borders. I'd vote for him without even thinking about it.
Now add the fact that Eastwood is the Tory party's 4th target seat and Mr Carlaw is apparently the rising star (there's that word again) in Scottish Tory circles. I think he's my tip for Tory success story of the night.
Interestingly, a win here for Jackson would lead to Annabel Goldie only scraping her regional seat on the seventh round. Given my dodgy numbers work and large margin of error, she is by no means safe. I wouldn't wish an embarrassing exit on Annabel though. A Conservative blood-bath from May 4th onwards is something I'm kind of looking forward to.
Greenock and Inverclyde - It's easy to forget that Ross Finnie is a regional list MSP. He seems to get everywhere so I just assumed he had a constitutency all of his own somewhere. Not so seemingly, and he goes up against Duncan MacNeil in Greenock and Inverclyde. Technically this is a safe Labour seat but I don't see why Ross can't give Duncan a run for his money.
I really don't like to bad mouth people (no honestly, I don't) but from what I've seen on the media Duncan MacNeil hasn't exactly covered himself in glory thus far in the campaign which can only help Mr Finnie's plight.
SNP fans should consider tactically voting for Ross Finnie, freeing up a regional list seat that the SNP could grab.
Paisley North - Wendy Alexander to win this seat with an arm tied behind her back, eyes closed and hopping on one leg.
SNP voters, make sure to get down to those booths to drop off your 2nd vote.
Paisley South - On the other hand....
Hugh Henry is the sitting MSP here. He faces not only the challenge of SNP's Fiona McLeod but also the challenge of independent Clive Fairweather.
This is only no. 11 on the SNP target list based on 2003 figures and the challenge of Clive could help or could hinder the SNP. I don't know too much about Mr Fairweather but from alba.org.uk:
On the 26 th August 2006, Clive Fairweather said he would contest Paisley South against Deputy Justice Minister Hugh Henry unless the Exectutive adressed the problem of persisten young offenders. Henry was responsible for shutting down the South-Lanarkshire based Airborne Initiative which was an alternative to prison for 18 - 25 year olds.
Difficult to tell how strong this challenge will be, but with such a tight race, it is a welcome addition to the fold (I hope).
Fiona McLeod to run this one very tight indeed against the deputy minister for justice. No tactical voting required unless Clive is seen as the main challenge.
Strathkelvin and Bearsden - Moments of true brilliance happen in this constituency. Jean Turner won here at the last Holyrood election. Jo Swinson won here in the last Westminster election. And I was born here in February 1980.
This year, however, heavyweight David Whitton of Labour will stand in what is usually a happy hunting ground for the Labour party. Expect a strong showing from both SNP and Lib Dem but they may well take votes from each other.
I can't see David doing anything other than winning unfortunately. And neither Lib Dem nor SNP are clear 2nd favourites so tactical voting just wouldn't work either. Might aswell vote SNP and cross your toes.
BREAKING NEWS on the 12th of Feb (my birthday, told you it was a special day) has it that Jean Turner is seeking a second term as the local MSP for Strathkelvin and Bearsden. This shakes up everything and surely makes Jean as equal favourite with David Whitton. Therefore, I recommend that SNP people, and Lib Dem and Tory, back Jean to keep Labour at bay.
West Renfrewshire - An interesting one to finish off with. A 3 way horse race between Annabel Goldie, Patricia Godman (Labour MSP) and Bill Wilson (SNP challenger). It's bloody difficult to call actually. Annabel Goldie does come over very well in the press, SNP are on a high right now and you can never write off a sitting Labour MSP in the West of Scotland so, finally, I'm copping out and not going to call it.
No tactical voting though, come on Bill!
As for my take on the regional MSPs who will get through here. My reckoning is...
SNP to take 4 seats - Stewart Maxwell, Gil Paterson, Ken Gibson and Bill Wilson with 29% of the vote.
Ross Finnie to get the Lib Dem seat unless he manages to win his Greenock constituency. Lib Dems to poll 12.9% in the second vote here.
Annabel Goldie to squeak through on the 7th round as previously discussed. Tories polling 14.2% for this one.
And the Greens to get one MSP with 7.7% of the 2nd vote this time around.
Wow it's exciting stuff!
Prediction - South Scotland
" And nothing really happens. Nothing happens at all. The needle returns to the start of the song and we all sing along like before. And we'll all be Labour tonight, and Labour tomorrow..."
Sorry, that just washed over me there, I was looking at my expected South of Scotland results and it struck me how little change there seems to be. I just really hope I am underestimating how well the SNP will do this time...
Ayr - Two horse race between John Scott of the Tories and (someone) of the Labour party. Finally we have a real reason to tactically vote!
A win for the Labour candidate will result in zero regional MSPs for Labour.
A win for John Scott will still result in zero regional MSPs for Labour.
Not only that, but a win for John Scott will increase the SNPs chances of gaining an extra MSP compared to if Labour were to win. (As a Labour win would probably give one extra Tory regional MSP and leave one less for the other parties)
So, with the above in mind, SNP in Ayr get behind John Scott for some tactical voting and personal gain.
Carrick, Cumnock and Doone Valley - Cathy Jamieson is the strong favourite here and, personally, I hope she wins it as it will mean more jokes from Only An Excuse about her.
Just joking, I think Cathy Jamieson has a tough job and has had a damn good crack at it. I'm glad she is in a safe seat and not edging out an SNP heavyweight. (Though of course I am sure Adam Ingram would do a cracking job for the SNP if he was to win here).
Actually, I stopped at a service station on my way down to Wales to do the 3 Peaks Challenge last year. Cathy Jamieson was there also just minding her own business getting some food at the restaurant. 4 young Scottish guys moseyed in with that ned waddle that only such kids can do. One shouted "Hoah! You're Cathy Jamieson! You got me a year in jail by the way!" in a half threatneing, half joking way. She was loving the banter, laughing through the embarrassment and saying something like "I'm sure it wasn't all my fault" (I can't remember exactly). Anyway, I was very impressed, most MSPs would have struggled mixing with actual people in such a scenario. Cathy showed a mix of character and class.
No tactical voting required. Cathy to walk it and hopefully SNP's Adam to finish 2nd.
Clydesdale/Cunninghame South - 2 constituencies in 1 here as they both should have easy Labour wins with SNP finishing an easy second. Hopefully not, but that's how I'm seeing it based on the numbers and my natural caution.
No tactical voting, SNP to push for wins despite probable second places.
EDIT: Due to some comments (see below) and some digging around, I decided to not be lazy and split these two up.
I still think Cunninghame South will go to Labour but Clydesdale, thanks to the effort of Aileen Campbell, may very well go to SNP. I did spot her enthusiastic chat on www.alba.org.uk and, now that her potential has been backed up by a constituent (see comment below) I thought I would post her chat up here for all to see...
Upon her selection, Aileen Campbell said: "I am absolutely delighted to have received the nomination to be the SNP's candidate for Clydesdale. Clydesdale is an incredibly beautiful and diverse constituency and I am very proud to have the opportunity to serve the people here. I hope to bring a great deal of energy and enthusiasm into my political campaign and to show the people of Clydesdale that the SNP is the only real alternative to New Labour. We are not just another political party, but one that cares about the people of Scotland and one that wants to make a genuine difference to society by regaining Scotland's sovereignty. One in four children and one in five pensioners live in poverty, we have been dragged into an illegal war on Iraq by Tony Blair and now he and New Labour want a new generation of expensive and dangerous nuclear power stations built in Scotland. Closer to home, the roads and the transport systems in the constituency are a disgrace. I want to bring big changes to Clydesdale, I want to engage with the people, and to listen and act upon their concerns. The SNP can win Clydesdale and my campaigning starts now."
I think a large crush is developing here... (but then, the run up to Valentine's Day always has me a bit mushy)
Dumfries - Hmm, an interesting one here. I'd love to be voting in a constituency like this.
You see, Labour held it in 2003 with a slim majority over the Tory's David Mundell. The Tory candidate is now Murray Tosh and the SNP (who finished a distant 3rd in 2003) have placed the lively Mike Russell into the mix.
So without Mike, I would have said tactically vote for the Tory candidate but I think Mike has to be in with a shout here given his profile and the possible disenchantment with some current Labour MSPs who don't seem to do too much. (I have no idea if Elaine Murray is one such MSP)
Make it about Labour vs SNP, and back Mike Russell, hopefully picking up Tory votes along the way.
East Lothian - Iain Gray, edged out in 2003 by David McLetchie, is back to stand in this constituency after Lord John Home Robertson decided not to stand again. It should be an absolute walk in the park for the man. Potential future Labour leader perhaps....? And sooner rather than later even....?
Note that it is rumoured that Mr Home Robertson has been offered a Life Peerage in exchange for standing down from the Scottish Parliament. Some old habits die hard I suppose...
Labour had a 26% majority with the remaining votes pretty much split 3 ways. No tactical voting required.
Galloway & Upper Nithsdale - This seat is currently held by Alex Ferguson. Personally I thought he would have had enough on his plate guiding Manchester United to another Premiership success, *chortle chortle*
Anyway, yes, the Conservatives currently hold this one but it is number 1 on the SNP target list given the 2003 results. And basically, that's all I need to know, if they were so close last time, with the Conservatives not picking up much ground and the SNP doing really well in the polls, this should be a win for Alasdair Morgan, barring any great shocks or moments of madness. It will be a sweet one for Alasdair who missed out by 99 votes last time.
No tactical voting required, one of many SNP gains in 2007
Roxburgh and Berwickshire - This consituency appears to be a 2-horse race between Lib Dem and the Tories. The conservative candidate John Lamont has been reselected and appears to be fighting tooth and nail to win the seat from sitting MSP Euan Robson. By my reckoning, both parties will finish with the same number of MSPs either way. A win or a loss for the Tories will have the same Conservative MSPs in Holyrood unless something bizarre occurs in the second vote.
No tactical voting required really, unless the Lib Dem regional MSP is someone controversial.
Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale - Not only does this constituency have the best name and also boast the most decorated candidate in Labour's Lady Catherine Maxwell Stuart, 21st Laird of Traquair but T, E and L must also be the tightest race in the country.
Held by the Lib Dems Jeremy Purvis, this is target seat number 2 for SNP, number 3 for the Tories and number 6 for Labour. A four way stromash!
I've given the nod to Christine Grahame, basically because the 4-way nature of the seat prevents tactical voting and SNP are flying much higher in the polls since 2003. Anything could happen and this one could be a pretty nasty slug-fest as the May 3rd approaches. I just hope all the candidates keep their cool. Well, mostly I hope Christine keeps her cool but it's always best if everyone plays fair, right?
As for the regional result, well it's very close here with the last regional seat having differences of only a few hundred votes between five parties (the 4 main ones and the SSP). Crucially, it is the Lib Dems who pick up that 7th seat in my analysis but it just shows that every 2nd vote does count.
The 7 regional seats go to.....
Mike Russell and Adam Ingram of SNP with 24.5% of the vote.
An as yet nameless Lib Dem candidate with 10.7% of the vote.
Derek Brownlee, John Lamont and Murray Tosh of the Tories with 23.6% of the vote.
Rosemary Byrne of the Greens with 6.9% of the vote. (EDIT: My mistake, R Byrne is of course SSP, this seat will go to Chris Ballance of the Greens)
Sorry, that just washed over me there, I was looking at my expected South of Scotland results and it struck me how little change there seems to be. I just really hope I am underestimating how well the SNP will do this time...
Ayr - Two horse race between John Scott of the Tories and (someone) of the Labour party. Finally we have a real reason to tactically vote!
A win for the Labour candidate will result in zero regional MSPs for Labour.
A win for John Scott will still result in zero regional MSPs for Labour.
Not only that, but a win for John Scott will increase the SNPs chances of gaining an extra MSP compared to if Labour were to win. (As a Labour win would probably give one extra Tory regional MSP and leave one less for the other parties)
So, with the above in mind, SNP in Ayr get behind John Scott for some tactical voting and personal gain.
Carrick, Cumnock and Doone Valley - Cathy Jamieson is the strong favourite here and, personally, I hope she wins it as it will mean more jokes from Only An Excuse about her.
Just joking, I think Cathy Jamieson has a tough job and has had a damn good crack at it. I'm glad she is in a safe seat and not edging out an SNP heavyweight. (Though of course I am sure Adam Ingram would do a cracking job for the SNP if he was to win here).
Actually, I stopped at a service station on my way down to Wales to do the 3 Peaks Challenge last year. Cathy Jamieson was there also just minding her own business getting some food at the restaurant. 4 young Scottish guys moseyed in with that ned waddle that only such kids can do. One shouted "Hoah! You're Cathy Jamieson! You got me a year in jail by the way!" in a half threatneing, half joking way. She was loving the banter, laughing through the embarrassment and saying something like "I'm sure it wasn't all my fault" (I can't remember exactly). Anyway, I was very impressed, most MSPs would have struggled mixing with actual people in such a scenario. Cathy showed a mix of character and class.
No tactical voting required. Cathy to walk it and hopefully SNP's Adam to finish 2nd.
Clydesdale/Cunninghame South - 2 constituencies in 1 here as they both should have easy Labour wins with SNP finishing an easy second. Hopefully not, but that's how I'm seeing it based on the numbers and my natural caution.
No tactical voting, SNP to push for wins despite probable second places.
EDIT: Due to some comments (see below) and some digging around, I decided to not be lazy and split these two up.
I still think Cunninghame South will go to Labour but Clydesdale, thanks to the effort of Aileen Campbell, may very well go to SNP. I did spot her enthusiastic chat on www.alba.org.uk and, now that her potential has been backed up by a constituent (see comment below) I thought I would post her chat up here for all to see...
Upon her selection, Aileen Campbell said: "I am absolutely delighted to have received the nomination to be the SNP's candidate for Clydesdale. Clydesdale is an incredibly beautiful and diverse constituency and I am very proud to have the opportunity to serve the people here. I hope to bring a great deal of energy and enthusiasm into my political campaign and to show the people of Clydesdale that the SNP is the only real alternative to New Labour. We are not just another political party, but one that cares about the people of Scotland and one that wants to make a genuine difference to society by regaining Scotland's sovereignty. One in four children and one in five pensioners live in poverty, we have been dragged into an illegal war on Iraq by Tony Blair and now he and New Labour want a new generation of expensive and dangerous nuclear power stations built in Scotland. Closer to home, the roads and the transport systems in the constituency are a disgrace. I want to bring big changes to Clydesdale, I want to engage with the people, and to listen and act upon their concerns. The SNP can win Clydesdale and my campaigning starts now."
I think a large crush is developing here... (but then, the run up to Valentine's Day always has me a bit mushy)
Dumfries - Hmm, an interesting one here. I'd love to be voting in a constituency like this.
You see, Labour held it in 2003 with a slim majority over the Tory's David Mundell. The Tory candidate is now Murray Tosh and the SNP (who finished a distant 3rd in 2003) have placed the lively Mike Russell into the mix.
So without Mike, I would have said tactically vote for the Tory candidate but I think Mike has to be in with a shout here given his profile and the possible disenchantment with some current Labour MSPs who don't seem to do too much. (I have no idea if Elaine Murray is one such MSP)
Make it about Labour vs SNP, and back Mike Russell, hopefully picking up Tory votes along the way.
East Lothian - Iain Gray, edged out in 2003 by David McLetchie, is back to stand in this constituency after Lord John Home Robertson decided not to stand again. It should be an absolute walk in the park for the man. Potential future Labour leader perhaps....? And sooner rather than later even....?
Note that it is rumoured that Mr Home Robertson has been offered a Life Peerage in exchange for standing down from the Scottish Parliament. Some old habits die hard I suppose...
Labour had a 26% majority with the remaining votes pretty much split 3 ways. No tactical voting required.
Galloway & Upper Nithsdale - This seat is currently held by Alex Ferguson. Personally I thought he would have had enough on his plate guiding Manchester United to another Premiership success, *chortle chortle*
Anyway, yes, the Conservatives currently hold this one but it is number 1 on the SNP target list given the 2003 results. And basically, that's all I need to know, if they were so close last time, with the Conservatives not picking up much ground and the SNP doing really well in the polls, this should be a win for Alasdair Morgan, barring any great shocks or moments of madness. It will be a sweet one for Alasdair who missed out by 99 votes last time.
No tactical voting required, one of many SNP gains in 2007
Roxburgh and Berwickshire - This consituency appears to be a 2-horse race between Lib Dem and the Tories. The conservative candidate John Lamont has been reselected and appears to be fighting tooth and nail to win the seat from sitting MSP Euan Robson. By my reckoning, both parties will finish with the same number of MSPs either way. A win or a loss for the Tories will have the same Conservative MSPs in Holyrood unless something bizarre occurs in the second vote.
No tactical voting required really, unless the Lib Dem regional MSP is someone controversial.
Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale - Not only does this constituency have the best name and also boast the most decorated candidate in Labour's Lady Catherine Maxwell Stuart, 21st Laird of Traquair but T, E and L must also be the tightest race in the country.
Held by the Lib Dems Jeremy Purvis, this is target seat number 2 for SNP, number 3 for the Tories and number 6 for Labour. A four way stromash!
I've given the nod to Christine Grahame, basically because the 4-way nature of the seat prevents tactical voting and SNP are flying much higher in the polls since 2003. Anything could happen and this one could be a pretty nasty slug-fest as the May 3rd approaches. I just hope all the candidates keep their cool. Well, mostly I hope Christine keeps her cool but it's always best if everyone plays fair, right?
As for the regional result, well it's very close here with the last regional seat having differences of only a few hundred votes between five parties (the 4 main ones and the SSP). Crucially, it is the Lib Dems who pick up that 7th seat in my analysis but it just shows that every 2nd vote does count.
The 7 regional seats go to.....
Mike Russell and Adam Ingram of SNP with 24.5% of the vote.
An as yet nameless Lib Dem candidate with 10.7% of the vote.
Derek Brownlee, John Lamont and Murray Tosh of the Tories with 23.6% of the vote.
Rosemary Byrne of the Greens with 6.9% of the vote. (EDIT: My mistake, R Byrne is of course SSP, this seat will go to Chris Ballance of the Greens)
Prediction - North East
The North East. Part of me thinks we should have built the parliament there. Seats changing hands constantly, hot topics springing up constantly, more free parking spaces available in Edinburgh. All good.
The best thing about the North East is that Labour only have 2 FPTP seats up there giving everyone else a fighting chance of making a fist of giving them a run for their money in the overall scheme of things.
Well, by my reckoning, that number drops to 1. Here are my thoughts on what's going down up there come May 3rd....
Aberdeen Central - Lewis MacDonald of Labour is the current holder of this seat and I've been told by people who have worked with him that he is a bit ropey to say the least. My problem is he seems like such a nice guy, based only on his photos mind you, so I'm sure he gets a few votes on that basis alone. The challenge by Karen Shirron is expected to be strong.
This is the SNP's 8th target seat but I fear the fact that Lewis is a deputy minister might just help him out here.
The SNP candidate Karen Shirron will either finish 1st or 2nd so no tactical voting is required.
Aberdeen North - Despite being a target seat for Labour, this is expected to be a safe hold for SNP unless a particularly strong Labour candidate is rolled out.
No tactical voting is required, get the SNP vote out and Brian Adam shall walk it.
Aberdeen South - Safe hold for Nicol Stephen. He has an 8,000 majority and the rest of the votes are pretty much split 3 ways.
No tactical voting required. Bit of a lost cause basically.
Angus - Safe hold for SNP's Andrew Welsh
No tactical voting required
Banff and Buchan - Alex Salmond's old stomping ground. Safe hold for Stewart Stevenson. I'm very glad there wasn't an internal tussle for who was going to stand here. Well, glad there wasn't a public one anyway!
No tactical voting required
Dundee East - Labour's top target seat. The tension must be so tight here you wouldn't be able to fit a credit card in between.... Actually, I won't finish that sentence.
Iain Luke is the Labour candidate. Shona Robison is the SNP candidate and current MSP for the area. My prediction states that Shona will expand her slim majority, based solely on the SNP jump in the polls but with such a precarious lead (0.34% in 2003) you never know what could happen.
SNP to win, no tactical voting required. Get the vote out!
Dundee West - This is the opposite of Dundee East. Labour hold with a slim majority.
However, unlike Dundee East, I predict that this seat will easily change hands to SNP candidate Joe Fitzpatrick. It sounds like Joe is a pretty decent, stand-up guy and the Labour candidate Jill Shimmi is flapping around in a way that only some Labour candidates know how...
I found this quote (at alba.org.uk) very interesting for example -
'Few Telegraph readers will have been surprised to find Councillors McPherson and Mackie rushing to the defence of Jill Shimi's petulant attack on Joe FitzPatrick. They are, after all, the leaders of the Lib Dem and Tory minority groups on Dundee City Council and keep Jill Shimi in her post as Leader of the Administration. Both these groups have been well rewarded for their deference to the Labour Party with convenerships and special responsibility allowances worth tens of thousands of pounds each year. Councillor Shimi may be facing an electoral disaster of her own making but at least she can take comfort in the fact she is getting value for money from her political stooges.'
Kenneth Guild in the Evening Telegraph, 3rd October 2006.
No tactical voting required. Vote Joe.
Gordon - I will weep hot tears if Alex doesn't win this constituency. And, not being funny or anything, but it's hardly a foregone conclusion that he will win it. The SNP finished 3rd here in 2003 and have a 15% swing to make up.
However, Alex Samond is a bigger heavyweight than Dr Alasdair Allan who stood here in 2003 (I predict Alasdair will win the Western Isles seat this year anyway). Labour do not have a strong enough base to cause significant mischief by voting for the Lib Dem MSP Nora Radcliffe either.
Speaking of Nora - this was rather interesting: http://fibdems.blogspot.com/2007/02/unknown-in-her-own-kingdom-nora-who.html
SNP to win big in Gordon, and Alex to give a tub-thumping speech afterwards which is hopefully not too smarmy. (*Mental note to have a special bag of popcorn ready for that moment*)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - Mike Rumbles of Lib Dem to win by an absolute country mile.
No tactical voting required. With these results, I make it Labour get only 2 regional MSPs which is a poor haul given they only had one FPTP so unsettling the results (a Tory win here for example) could change the 2 to a 3.
So, 6 seats for the SNP in the North East by my reckoning, a fine result. Not quite enough regional votes to get a 7th person in but they aren't too far away.
Regional result is...
Labour to get 2 seats (Richard Baker and Marlyn Glen) with 21% of the vote.
Conservatives to get 3 seats (Alex Johnstone, Nanette Milne and David Davidson) with 17% of the vote.
Lib Dems Alison McInnes to win a seat with the Libs getting 19.5% of the vote.
Green party's Shiona Baird to win a seat with 6.4% of the vote.
Note that even with 33% of the regional vote, the SNP aren't that close to getting a regional MSP, they would need to go to round 10 of voting to see a winner so that's a lot of votes that could be put to the Greens or the Lib Dems or the Tories to try to reduce the Labour regional count. It makes little difference who it is given to as once the counting gets down to round 7 of the regional vote, the numbers are so close it is difficult to judge who you should vote for. I make it Labour get candidates early however, at rounds 2 and 4 with the Labour party getting another candidate if the rounds stretched to 8. So these "extra" votes for the Greens etc would be more likely to prevent a 3rd rather than a 3rd candidate. Makes for an overall score of SNP 6 - Labour 3 though which isn't too bad. (Apologies to any Liverpool fans reading this and wanted to consign that 6-3 scoreline against Arsenal to oblivion)
The best thing about the North East is that Labour only have 2 FPTP seats up there giving everyone else a fighting chance of making a fist of giving them a run for their money in the overall scheme of things.
Well, by my reckoning, that number drops to 1. Here are my thoughts on what's going down up there come May 3rd....
Aberdeen Central - Lewis MacDonald of Labour is the current holder of this seat and I've been told by people who have worked with him that he is a bit ropey to say the least. My problem is he seems like such a nice guy, based only on his photos mind you, so I'm sure he gets a few votes on that basis alone. The challenge by Karen Shirron is expected to be strong.
This is the SNP's 8th target seat but I fear the fact that Lewis is a deputy minister might just help him out here.
The SNP candidate Karen Shirron will either finish 1st or 2nd so no tactical voting is required.
Aberdeen North - Despite being a target seat for Labour, this is expected to be a safe hold for SNP unless a particularly strong Labour candidate is rolled out.
No tactical voting is required, get the SNP vote out and Brian Adam shall walk it.
Aberdeen South - Safe hold for Nicol Stephen. He has an 8,000 majority and the rest of the votes are pretty much split 3 ways.
No tactical voting required. Bit of a lost cause basically.
Angus - Safe hold for SNP's Andrew Welsh
No tactical voting required
Banff and Buchan - Alex Salmond's old stomping ground. Safe hold for Stewart Stevenson. I'm very glad there wasn't an internal tussle for who was going to stand here. Well, glad there wasn't a public one anyway!
No tactical voting required
Dundee East - Labour's top target seat. The tension must be so tight here you wouldn't be able to fit a credit card in between.... Actually, I won't finish that sentence.
Iain Luke is the Labour candidate. Shona Robison is the SNP candidate and current MSP for the area. My prediction states that Shona will expand her slim majority, based solely on the SNP jump in the polls but with such a precarious lead (0.34% in 2003) you never know what could happen.
SNP to win, no tactical voting required. Get the vote out!
Dundee West - This is the opposite of Dundee East. Labour hold with a slim majority.
However, unlike Dundee East, I predict that this seat will easily change hands to SNP candidate Joe Fitzpatrick. It sounds like Joe is a pretty decent, stand-up guy and the Labour candidate Jill Shimmi is flapping around in a way that only some Labour candidates know how...
I found this quote (at alba.org.uk) very interesting for example -
'Few Telegraph readers will have been surprised to find Councillors McPherson and Mackie rushing to the defence of Jill Shimi's petulant attack on Joe FitzPatrick. They are, after all, the leaders of the Lib Dem and Tory minority groups on Dundee City Council and keep Jill Shimi in her post as Leader of the Administration. Both these groups have been well rewarded for their deference to the Labour Party with convenerships and special responsibility allowances worth tens of thousands of pounds each year. Councillor Shimi may be facing an electoral disaster of her own making but at least she can take comfort in the fact she is getting value for money from her political stooges.'
Kenneth Guild in the Evening Telegraph, 3rd October 2006.
No tactical voting required. Vote Joe.
Gordon - I will weep hot tears if Alex doesn't win this constituency. And, not being funny or anything, but it's hardly a foregone conclusion that he will win it. The SNP finished 3rd here in 2003 and have a 15% swing to make up.
However, Alex Samond is a bigger heavyweight than Dr Alasdair Allan who stood here in 2003 (I predict Alasdair will win the Western Isles seat this year anyway). Labour do not have a strong enough base to cause significant mischief by voting for the Lib Dem MSP Nora Radcliffe either.
Speaking of Nora - this was rather interesting: http://fibdems.blogspot.com/2007/02/unknown-in-her-own-kingdom-nora-who.html
SNP to win big in Gordon, and Alex to give a tub-thumping speech afterwards which is hopefully not too smarmy. (*Mental note to have a special bag of popcorn ready for that moment*)
West Aberdeenshire and Kincardine - Mike Rumbles of Lib Dem to win by an absolute country mile.
No tactical voting required. With these results, I make it Labour get only 2 regional MSPs which is a poor haul given they only had one FPTP so unsettling the results (a Tory win here for example) could change the 2 to a 3.
So, 6 seats for the SNP in the North East by my reckoning, a fine result. Not quite enough regional votes to get a 7th person in but they aren't too far away.
Regional result is...
Labour to get 2 seats (Richard Baker and Marlyn Glen) with 21% of the vote.
Conservatives to get 3 seats (Alex Johnstone, Nanette Milne and David Davidson) with 17% of the vote.
Lib Dems Alison McInnes to win a seat with the Libs getting 19.5% of the vote.
Green party's Shiona Baird to win a seat with 6.4% of the vote.
Note that even with 33% of the regional vote, the SNP aren't that close to getting a regional MSP, they would need to go to round 10 of voting to see a winner so that's a lot of votes that could be put to the Greens or the Lib Dems or the Tories to try to reduce the Labour regional count. It makes little difference who it is given to as once the counting gets down to round 7 of the regional vote, the numbers are so close it is difficult to judge who you should vote for. I make it Labour get candidates early however, at rounds 2 and 4 with the Labour party getting another candidate if the rounds stretched to 8. So these "extra" votes for the Greens etc would be more likely to prevent a 3rd rather than a 3rd candidate. Makes for an overall score of SNP 6 - Labour 3 though which isn't too bad. (Apologies to any Liverpool fans reading this and wanted to consign that 6-3 scoreline against Arsenal to oblivion)
Prediction - Mid Scotland and Fife
OK, so no offence to any Fifers out there but this is a really boring region as I make it that there are no changes in any FPTP constituencies.
John Swinney, Roseanna Cunningham and Keith Brown should all be pretty safe for the SNP.
Iain Smith has managed to find a lovely little Lib Dem niche in North East Fife. He fought off Ted Brocklebank in 2003 with a comfortable margin and SNP finishing a fairly distant 3rd. Iain has been MSP here for 8 years and I can't imagine there being a change to that.
SNP voters have a better chance of getting an extra regional MSP with Iain Smith winning here rather than Ted so voting for Iain Smith isn't the craziest decision to make. However, with Iain looking guaranteed to win, a strong 2nd place to set the SNP up for 2011 may be the most sensible long term move.
There's really not much else that can be said about Mid Scotland and Fife. Roseanna Cunningham qwill be feeling the heat given the very slim majority she is defending against Liz Smith. Tactical voting by Labour/Lib Dem people in the area could unseat her but she is (surely) too popular among constituents to come second.
Similarly, Keith Brown has the Labour candidate breathing down his neck as Keith is also defending a slim majority. If I could find out anywhere on the net who the Labour candidate actually is I could give more thought on this but alas, the information cannot be found.
Notable conservatives making a challenge include Peter Lyburn (future Tory leader apparently) and Murdo Fraser (a bit more likely). I can imagine exchanges in North tayside between Mudrdo and John (Swinney) would be rather tasty. I do love a good head to head after all. I don't see any FPTP wins in Mid Scotland and Fife though.
But as far as tactical voting is concerned, there is not much to speak of as SNP can challenge everywhere here.
The only notable exception perhaps is Stirling where the 2003 result was -
Labour (Sylvia Jackson) 10,661
Tory (Brian Monteith) 7,781
SNP (Bruce Crawford) 5,645
But with brian Monteith being replaced by the less well known (but ironically probably more likeable) Bob Dalrymple. There's no reason why the SNP shouldn't be seen as the main challengers here. I do suspect there could be a scalp here but it's just a shame that the Tory and SNP votes are split so much. My main hope is that most Tories are tired of Dr Jackson and prefer a new face in Stirling. My sample of one for the area (my Dad) so far suggests this may well be the case.
One of the main reasons being Sylvia Jackson went to campaign at the house, my stepmother answered the door and Dr Jackson asked "Is the man of the house available at the moment?" Not the best way to win friends I would have thought....!
My regional assessment of the area, based largely on the recent ICM poll, suggests that the result will be...
SNP 2 seats (Bruce Crawford and Tricia Marwick) with 30% of the vote
Lib Dems 1 seat (Alex Cole Hamilton) with 14% of the vote
Conservatives 3 seats (Murdo Fraser, Liz Smith and Ted Brocklebank) with 18% of the vote
Greens 1 seats (Mark Ruskell) with 8.5% of the vote
Feel free to challenge my opinions!
John Swinney, Roseanna Cunningham and Keith Brown should all be pretty safe for the SNP.
Iain Smith has managed to find a lovely little Lib Dem niche in North East Fife. He fought off Ted Brocklebank in 2003 with a comfortable margin and SNP finishing a fairly distant 3rd. Iain has been MSP here for 8 years and I can't imagine there being a change to that.
SNP voters have a better chance of getting an extra regional MSP with Iain Smith winning here rather than Ted so voting for Iain Smith isn't the craziest decision to make. However, with Iain looking guaranteed to win, a strong 2nd place to set the SNP up for 2011 may be the most sensible long term move.
There's really not much else that can be said about Mid Scotland and Fife. Roseanna Cunningham qwill be feeling the heat given the very slim majority she is defending against Liz Smith. Tactical voting by Labour/Lib Dem people in the area could unseat her but she is (surely) too popular among constituents to come second.
Similarly, Keith Brown has the Labour candidate breathing down his neck as Keith is also defending a slim majority. If I could find out anywhere on the net who the Labour candidate actually is I could give more thought on this but alas, the information cannot be found.
Notable conservatives making a challenge include Peter Lyburn (future Tory leader apparently) and Murdo Fraser (a bit more likely). I can imagine exchanges in North tayside between Mudrdo and John (Swinney) would be rather tasty. I do love a good head to head after all. I don't see any FPTP wins in Mid Scotland and Fife though.
But as far as tactical voting is concerned, there is not much to speak of as SNP can challenge everywhere here.
The only notable exception perhaps is Stirling where the 2003 result was -
Labour (Sylvia Jackson) 10,661
Tory (Brian Monteith) 7,781
SNP (Bruce Crawford) 5,645
But with brian Monteith being replaced by the less well known (but ironically probably more likeable) Bob Dalrymple. There's no reason why the SNP shouldn't be seen as the main challengers here. I do suspect there could be a scalp here but it's just a shame that the Tory and SNP votes are split so much. My main hope is that most Tories are tired of Dr Jackson and prefer a new face in Stirling. My sample of one for the area (my Dad) so far suggests this may well be the case.
One of the main reasons being Sylvia Jackson went to campaign at the house, my stepmother answered the door and Dr Jackson asked "Is the man of the house available at the moment?" Not the best way to win friends I would have thought....!
My regional assessment of the area, based largely on the recent ICM poll, suggests that the result will be...
SNP 2 seats (Bruce Crawford and Tricia Marwick) with 30% of the vote
Lib Dems 1 seat (Alex Cole Hamilton) with 14% of the vote
Conservatives 3 seats (Murdo Fraser, Liz Smith and Ted Brocklebank) with 18% of the vote
Greens 1 seats (Mark Ruskell) with 8.5% of the vote
Feel free to challenge my opinions!
Predictions - Central
Well, similarly to Glasgow, this is another Labour heartland though with a ticker that is somewhat more susceptible to large scares.
It might not get the full fatal heart attack on May 3rd but I reckon it will at least need a bypass. Let's run through what's going on down Central way....
Airdrie and Shotts - Easy hold for Labour's Karen Whitefield is expected in this redder than red constituency. SNP are the only other possible winners.
No tactical voting required. But some serious crossing of fingers is.
Coatbridge and Chryston - Could it be? Jean Turner the second?
Julie McAnulty is standing as an independent in protest at the closure of hospitals but she is definitely not doing this on a whim. She has worked very closely with Jean Turner, Andy Kerr and Lewis McDonald in talks on hospital closures. Labour pushed ahead with he closures despite the protests and this, seemingly, has prompted Julie to stand. Not to mention the fact that the local MSP ABSTAINED on the question of whether to close local hospital Monklands. That's an MSP's salary well spent don't you think....?
For me, abstention suggests you have no feelings either way on the subject, which could make sense for some MSPs on particular votes. But on the question of a hospital closing in an MSP's own constituency, an abstention in such a vote by the local MSP should be closely followed by a resignation and perhaps even a public flogging.
Public feeling on this issue is expected to be fierce and I can only see Julie finishing 1st or 2nd. With that in mind, I would suggest SNP back Julie McAnulty to dislodge the local labour candidate.
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth - Ahh, Andrew Wilson, wherefore art thou? With your intelligent comments about how Scottish people should (quite rightly) support England in all major sporting events. I am always cheering on Tiger Tim, Rooney and Freddy Flintoff. The only time my security in this issue is dented is when England play San Marino and I just think, wouldn't it be great if the minnows managed to win here. But I'd think the same if it was Brazil or Italy playing so that's not anti-English at all.
Anyway, back on track...
Andrew Wilson ran Cathie Craigie very close indeed in 2003, 520 votes down at the end. It was a tough blow for the SNP to lose someone of Mr Wilson's calibre and (unless there were issues I'm unaware of) it made a mockery of their regional list selection process.
But in 2007, this is SNP's 3rd most achievable target seat based on 2003 figures. I have checked out Jamie Hepburn's website (Jamie being the SNP candidate this year). He seems like an immensely likeable guy and with one of his blogs he just about managed to win me over on the 'make university free' debate which, i can assure you, takes some doing. Bloody lazy students...
Here is Jamie's website - http://www.520votes.blogspot.com/
No tactical voting required, SNP should win if the party stays in front in the polls.
East Kilbride - Andy Kerr territory, easy victory for Labour.
Linda Fabiani expected to come 2nd (and be back in Holyrood via regional list votes), no tactical voting required.
Falkirk East - Will the "Ewing" factor make a difference here? We have Cathy Peattie going head to head with Annabelle Ewing. A really popular Labour MSP against an extremely hardworking ex-Westminster MP. Tough shout this one. Guarding against getting too excited, I think that the following quote from alba.org.uk highlights why Cathy will just shade this one...
At the 2003 election she was one of only ten Labour MSPs to increase her percentage vote and at plus 7.00 % was surpassed only by Jack McConnell
Or was it just cos there was no competition last time around?
Falkirk West - First of all, Denis Canavan is a massive loss to the parliament. It's understandable why he is standing down as he has had such genuinely tragic bad luck in his family's private life. The people supposedly "in the know" see this as an easy win for Labour. But SNP won the council elections so it may not be such a walk in the park after all. A lot will depend on who stands for Labour. For now, I am giving it to the red corner but Michael Matheson (SNP candidate) will be very hopeful of a nationalist gain.
SNP to fight a very tight race, no tactical voting required.
Hamilton North and Bellshill - 33% margin last time for Michael McMahon. Strong SNP candidate of Alex Neil expected to finish second easily and gain a seat on the regional vote.
No tactical voting required.
Hamilton South - Tom McCabe, with his 23% majority will be expected to win this one. SNP with a strong second or, dare I say it, a surprise scalp thanks to tireless efforts from Christine McKelvie.
No tactical voting required.
Kilmarnock and Loudon - A mere 4% margin for Margaret Jamieson in 2003 and with all other variables remaining in place but for a large swell for SNP in opinion polls, Willie Coffey is expected to romp home to victory. Assuming his doctor says it is ok for him to do any romping at all that is.
It would be a poignant victory for Willie as his brother, who stood for the seat in 2003 and was narrowly defeated, died last year. Their sister holds the local ward, gaining a 5.6% swing from Labour at the last election. (Info gained from alba.org.uk)
SNP to win the seat, no tactical voting required.
Motherwell and Wishaw - Despite the current Labour MSP being AWOL and not particularly popular with the national (or should that be international) campaign team, our dear leader (Jack McConnell) is expected to win handsomely.
No tactical voting required, as amusing as it would be for there to be a scalp here, it won't be happening
So, ok, maybe not that gaping a hole in the Labour armoury here by my reckoning but when it comes down to a 50/50, i tend to side with the status quo (Labour) as I want my results to be anything other than the stuff of fantasy. So where I predict an SNP win it's pretty much guaranteed whereas a few of the Labour holds are probably more rockier than I give them credit for. Alas, my local knowledge is just not up to scratch in some constituencies so feel free to leave a comment or two.
It might not get the full fatal heart attack on May 3rd but I reckon it will at least need a bypass. Let's run through what's going on down Central way....
Airdrie and Shotts - Easy hold for Labour's Karen Whitefield is expected in this redder than red constituency. SNP are the only other possible winners.
No tactical voting required. But some serious crossing of fingers is.
Coatbridge and Chryston - Could it be? Jean Turner the second?
Julie McAnulty is standing as an independent in protest at the closure of hospitals but she is definitely not doing this on a whim. She has worked very closely with Jean Turner, Andy Kerr and Lewis McDonald in talks on hospital closures. Labour pushed ahead with he closures despite the protests and this, seemingly, has prompted Julie to stand. Not to mention the fact that the local MSP ABSTAINED on the question of whether to close local hospital Monklands. That's an MSP's salary well spent don't you think....?
For me, abstention suggests you have no feelings either way on the subject, which could make sense for some MSPs on particular votes. But on the question of a hospital closing in an MSP's own constituency, an abstention in such a vote by the local MSP should be closely followed by a resignation and perhaps even a public flogging.
Public feeling on this issue is expected to be fierce and I can only see Julie finishing 1st or 2nd. With that in mind, I would suggest SNP back Julie McAnulty to dislodge the local labour candidate.
Cumbernauld and Kilsyth - Ahh, Andrew Wilson, wherefore art thou? With your intelligent comments about how Scottish people should (quite rightly) support England in all major sporting events. I am always cheering on Tiger Tim, Rooney and Freddy Flintoff. The only time my security in this issue is dented is when England play San Marino and I just think, wouldn't it be great if the minnows managed to win here. But I'd think the same if it was Brazil or Italy playing so that's not anti-English at all.
Anyway, back on track...
Andrew Wilson ran Cathie Craigie very close indeed in 2003, 520 votes down at the end. It was a tough blow for the SNP to lose someone of Mr Wilson's calibre and (unless there were issues I'm unaware of) it made a mockery of their regional list selection process.
But in 2007, this is SNP's 3rd most achievable target seat based on 2003 figures. I have checked out Jamie Hepburn's website (Jamie being the SNP candidate this year). He seems like an immensely likeable guy and with one of his blogs he just about managed to win me over on the 'make university free' debate which, i can assure you, takes some doing. Bloody lazy students...
Here is Jamie's website - http://www.520votes.blogspot.com/
No tactical voting required, SNP should win if the party stays in front in the polls.
East Kilbride - Andy Kerr territory, easy victory for Labour.
Linda Fabiani expected to come 2nd (and be back in Holyrood via regional list votes), no tactical voting required.
Falkirk East - Will the "Ewing" factor make a difference here? We have Cathy Peattie going head to head with Annabelle Ewing. A really popular Labour MSP against an extremely hardworking ex-Westminster MP. Tough shout this one. Guarding against getting too excited, I think that the following quote from alba.org.uk highlights why Cathy will just shade this one...
At the 2003 election she was one of only ten Labour MSPs to increase her percentage vote and at plus 7.00 % was surpassed only by Jack McConnell
Or was it just cos there was no competition last time around?
Falkirk West - First of all, Denis Canavan is a massive loss to the parliament. It's understandable why he is standing down as he has had such genuinely tragic bad luck in his family's private life. The people supposedly "in the know" see this as an easy win for Labour. But SNP won the council elections so it may not be such a walk in the park after all. A lot will depend on who stands for Labour. For now, I am giving it to the red corner but Michael Matheson (SNP candidate) will be very hopeful of a nationalist gain.
SNP to fight a very tight race, no tactical voting required.
Hamilton North and Bellshill - 33% margin last time for Michael McMahon. Strong SNP candidate of Alex Neil expected to finish second easily and gain a seat on the regional vote.
No tactical voting required.
Hamilton South - Tom McCabe, with his 23% majority will be expected to win this one. SNP with a strong second or, dare I say it, a surprise scalp thanks to tireless efforts from Christine McKelvie.
No tactical voting required.
Kilmarnock and Loudon - A mere 4% margin for Margaret Jamieson in 2003 and with all other variables remaining in place but for a large swell for SNP in opinion polls, Willie Coffey is expected to romp home to victory. Assuming his doctor says it is ok for him to do any romping at all that is.
It would be a poignant victory for Willie as his brother, who stood for the seat in 2003 and was narrowly defeated, died last year. Their sister holds the local ward, gaining a 5.6% swing from Labour at the last election. (Info gained from alba.org.uk)
SNP to win the seat, no tactical voting required.
Motherwell and Wishaw - Despite the current Labour MSP being AWOL and not particularly popular with the national (or should that be international) campaign team, our dear leader (Jack McConnell) is expected to win handsomely.
No tactical voting required, as amusing as it would be for there to be a scalp here, it won't be happening
So, ok, maybe not that gaping a hole in the Labour armoury here by my reckoning but when it comes down to a 50/50, i tend to side with the status quo (Labour) as I want my results to be anything other than the stuff of fantasy. So where I predict an SNP win it's pretty much guaranteed whereas a few of the Labour holds are probably more rockier than I give them credit for. Alas, my local knowledge is just not up to scratch in some constituencies so feel free to leave a comment or two.
Predictions - Highlands and Islands
Ok, now we're talking, let's get some real SNP gains on the board here....
So far I have written about my thoughts on the results for Central, Glasgow and Lothians. Results that would have you believe a Labour landslide is around the coroner for a dying SNP. My natural cautious pessisim notwithstanding, things are brighter for SNP the further north you go. And you don't get much northern than the Highlands and Islands.
Now, I'm very much a central belt kind of guy, born in Glasgow and I went to univeristy in Edinburgh so I am far removed from the Highlands. Actually, being in Sydney right now, I'm about as far removed from the Highlands as I could possibly be unless a sudden career change into astronomy was to occur. (Ok, so the correct word is probably cosomonautry or space-mannery or whatever, but as a claustrophobe, i never really looked into the area too much as a child. It didn't help that our books on this were kept in a pokey wee windowless cupboard underneath the stairs.)
So yes, I will be updating my knowledge on Highland Politics from a suitable blog. I suspect http://highlandpolitics.blogspot.com/ is the perfect one.
But here are my thoughts so far on the Highland and Island results, as of today...
Argyll and Bute - The current incumbent is one George Lyon of the Liberal Democrats. The MSP who has claimed the highest level of expenses, the MSP who has managed to anger the local fishing community and the MSP who (personally speaking) just doesn't seem like a particularly nice guy.
I also think Jim Mather has acquitted himself very well, the Holyrood version of John Reid (yes, I like John Reid, don't hate me). Jim seems to have a very sensible, pragmatic mind and his assessment of the Scottish economy is widely accepted as the most suitable for Scotland going forward - http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/business.cfm?id=1671862006
Dare I say it, forget John Reid, Jim Mather has a touch of the Leo McGarry about him. (If you don't watch The West Wing, please stop reading my blog, switch off your computer and go buy series 1 today).
So as I say, I don't know much about Highland Politics but this 'should' be a no-brainer. Jim Mather to win hands down. But is Argyll and Bute the kind of area where people vote Lib Dem regardless of the candidate? I hope not.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - I have this down as a fairly easy hold for Jamie Stone. He seems a fairly uncontroversial guy and the type of likeable bloke that constituents would vote for election after election.
Labour finished 2nd last time so SNP voters may wish to consider voting for Jamie to make sure he wins but I suspect Rob Gibson will finish 2nd so it's probably best to push Labour into 3rd given they probably won't win here anyway.
Inverness, East Nairn and Lochaber - That Ewing surname may well just pull it out the bag again here. A popular character up north and despite a fairly slim majority, the current strong showing of SNP in the polls suggests that this consitituency should be an easy hold.
SNP to win, by my reckoning. No tactical voting required.
Moray - This is where I lose the respect of SNP fans reading this. I don't really know very much about sitting SNP MSP Richard Lochhead although I'm vaguely aware that I should.
Anyway, it doesn't really matter as he has a large majority and should win very easily. Closest challengers are the Tories who have the candidate Mary Scanlon as the embodiment of their hopes here. She kind of let herself down at the Moray by-election with some dubious behaviour and I daresay she won't do any better than second place this time around. As she is first on the Tory regional lists, I'm sure she's not that concerned though.
Easy SNP victory, no tactical voting required.
Orkney - Jim Wallace's old seat of course. Jim's majority was slashed at the last election and I thought this quote was interesting as I knew nothing about it really... (courtesy of alba.org.uk)
'Following in the tradition of Cromwell in 1653 and L. Amery to Neville Chamberlain in May 1940, the electorate of Orkney have sent a clear message to Jim Wallace: "You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!".'
Scottish Politics, May 2003
So, it's a tricky one, I see it as a genuine 3way race between Lib Dem, SNP and Conservatives. The Tories came second last time and they have a good candidate in Helen Gardiner but then the SNP guy John Mowat seems strong too. I can't predict this one as, basically, if I was a floating voter, I'd attend the debates and then just see how I felt on polling day basically.
I've given it to Lib Dem in my predictor but only as a tip of the hat to Jim Wallace.
No tactical voting required. Labour not expected to feature in the running for this one at all.
Ross, Skye and Inverness West - I put a lot of stock in photos. Really, I do. It's all in the eyes and it was for those reasons that I just didn't take to Mary Scanlon or George Lyon. I don't know these people at all, it's just first impressions or a gut feeling you know? I've checked out the photo for the sitting Lib Dem MSP John Farquar Munro and I predict a landslide for him. Great lad, he'll go far that one.
Also, it is the same SNP candidate as 2003 and he has a 23% margin to make up against an MSP who has voted against the coalition on such issues as fishing and fire stations.
Lib Dem to win, Snp to finish a relatively distant 2nd. No tactical voting required.
Shetland - SNP are so unlikely to make a dent here that they haven't fielded a candidate. Tavish Scott made a strong showing in 2003 but I wouldn't have said he was invincible.
Regardless, Lib Dem expected to breeze through this one. Tories to finish 2nd. Tactical voting not required as SNP take the 7th regional seat by my reckoning, so any change to the status quo could feasibly boost Labour and/or deny SNP.
Western Isles - This seat is held by Labour's Alasdair Morrison but it is SNP's 6th most likely target seat based on 2003 figures and, given that a mere 3% swing is required for Alasdair Allan to take it, I cannot see anything other than an SNP victory here.
SNP to win Western Isles. No tactical voting required.
And there it is, a bit of a mixed bag. I would say the big highlight here, and possibly one of the biggest head to heads is Jim Mather vs George Lyon. Jim Mather is an SNP heavyweight now, and much like Nicola Sturgeon in Govan if he cannot get in on FPTP then I don't see SNP forming any sort of government come May.
My reckoning on the regional list is that Labour will get 3 seats (Peter Peacock, Rhoda Grant and David Stewart) with 23% of the vote, SNP 2 seats (Jim Mather and Rob Gibson) with 31% of the vote, Tories 2 seats (Mary Scanlon and Jamie McGrigor) with 15% of the vote. Note that the greens marginally miss out with only 6% of the vote but it's all guess work this early on in the proceedings of course.
If anyone wants my Excel spreadsheet to play around with the numbers, just let me know.
So far I have written about my thoughts on the results for Central, Glasgow and Lothians. Results that would have you believe a Labour landslide is around the coroner for a dying SNP. My natural cautious pessisim notwithstanding, things are brighter for SNP the further north you go. And you don't get much northern than the Highlands and Islands.
Now, I'm very much a central belt kind of guy, born in Glasgow and I went to univeristy in Edinburgh so I am far removed from the Highlands. Actually, being in Sydney right now, I'm about as far removed from the Highlands as I could possibly be unless a sudden career change into astronomy was to occur. (Ok, so the correct word is probably cosomonautry or space-mannery or whatever, but as a claustrophobe, i never really looked into the area too much as a child. It didn't help that our books on this were kept in a pokey wee windowless cupboard underneath the stairs.)
So yes, I will be updating my knowledge on Highland Politics from a suitable blog. I suspect http://highlandpolitics.blogspot.com/ is the perfect one.
But here are my thoughts so far on the Highland and Island results, as of today...
Argyll and Bute - The current incumbent is one George Lyon of the Liberal Democrats. The MSP who has claimed the highest level of expenses, the MSP who has managed to anger the local fishing community and the MSP who (personally speaking) just doesn't seem like a particularly nice guy.
I also think Jim Mather has acquitted himself very well, the Holyrood version of John Reid (yes, I like John Reid, don't hate me). Jim seems to have a very sensible, pragmatic mind and his assessment of the Scottish economy is widely accepted as the most suitable for Scotland going forward - http://scotlandonsunday.scotsman.com/business.cfm?id=1671862006
Dare I say it, forget John Reid, Jim Mather has a touch of the Leo McGarry about him. (If you don't watch The West Wing, please stop reading my blog, switch off your computer and go buy series 1 today).
So as I say, I don't know much about Highland Politics but this 'should' be a no-brainer. Jim Mather to win hands down. But is Argyll and Bute the kind of area where people vote Lib Dem regardless of the candidate? I hope not.
Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross - I have this down as a fairly easy hold for Jamie Stone. He seems a fairly uncontroversial guy and the type of likeable bloke that constituents would vote for election after election.
Labour finished 2nd last time so SNP voters may wish to consider voting for Jamie to make sure he wins but I suspect Rob Gibson will finish 2nd so it's probably best to push Labour into 3rd given they probably won't win here anyway.
Inverness, East Nairn and Lochaber - That Ewing surname may well just pull it out the bag again here. A popular character up north and despite a fairly slim majority, the current strong showing of SNP in the polls suggests that this consitituency should be an easy hold.
SNP to win, by my reckoning. No tactical voting required.
Moray - This is where I lose the respect of SNP fans reading this. I don't really know very much about sitting SNP MSP Richard Lochhead although I'm vaguely aware that I should.
Anyway, it doesn't really matter as he has a large majority and should win very easily. Closest challengers are the Tories who have the candidate Mary Scanlon as the embodiment of their hopes here. She kind of let herself down at the Moray by-election with some dubious behaviour and I daresay she won't do any better than second place this time around. As she is first on the Tory regional lists, I'm sure she's not that concerned though.
Easy SNP victory, no tactical voting required.
Orkney - Jim Wallace's old seat of course. Jim's majority was slashed at the last election and I thought this quote was interesting as I knew nothing about it really... (courtesy of alba.org.uk)
'Following in the tradition of Cromwell in 1653 and L. Amery to Neville Chamberlain in May 1940, the electorate of Orkney have sent a clear message to Jim Wallace: "You have sat too long here for any good you have been doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you. In the name of God, go!".'
Scottish Politics, May 2003
So, it's a tricky one, I see it as a genuine 3way race between Lib Dem, SNP and Conservatives. The Tories came second last time and they have a good candidate in Helen Gardiner but then the SNP guy John Mowat seems strong too. I can't predict this one as, basically, if I was a floating voter, I'd attend the debates and then just see how I felt on polling day basically.
I've given it to Lib Dem in my predictor but only as a tip of the hat to Jim Wallace.
No tactical voting required. Labour not expected to feature in the running for this one at all.
Ross, Skye and Inverness West - I put a lot of stock in photos. Really, I do. It's all in the eyes and it was for those reasons that I just didn't take to Mary Scanlon or George Lyon. I don't know these people at all, it's just first impressions or a gut feeling you know? I've checked out the photo for the sitting Lib Dem MSP John Farquar Munro and I predict a landslide for him. Great lad, he'll go far that one.
Also, it is the same SNP candidate as 2003 and he has a 23% margin to make up against an MSP who has voted against the coalition on such issues as fishing and fire stations.
Lib Dem to win, Snp to finish a relatively distant 2nd. No tactical voting required.
Shetland - SNP are so unlikely to make a dent here that they haven't fielded a candidate. Tavish Scott made a strong showing in 2003 but I wouldn't have said he was invincible.
Regardless, Lib Dem expected to breeze through this one. Tories to finish 2nd. Tactical voting not required as SNP take the 7th regional seat by my reckoning, so any change to the status quo could feasibly boost Labour and/or deny SNP.
Western Isles - This seat is held by Labour's Alasdair Morrison but it is SNP's 6th most likely target seat based on 2003 figures and, given that a mere 3% swing is required for Alasdair Allan to take it, I cannot see anything other than an SNP victory here.
SNP to win Western Isles. No tactical voting required.
And there it is, a bit of a mixed bag. I would say the big highlight here, and possibly one of the biggest head to heads is Jim Mather vs George Lyon. Jim Mather is an SNP heavyweight now, and much like Nicola Sturgeon in Govan if he cannot get in on FPTP then I don't see SNP forming any sort of government come May.
My reckoning on the regional list is that Labour will get 3 seats (Peter Peacock, Rhoda Grant and David Stewart) with 23% of the vote, SNP 2 seats (Jim Mather and Rob Gibson) with 31% of the vote, Tories 2 seats (Mary Scanlon and Jamie McGrigor) with 15% of the vote. Note that the greens marginally miss out with only 6% of the vote but it's all guess work this early on in the proceedings of course.
If anyone wants my Excel spreadsheet to play around with the numbers, just let me know.
Predictions - Glasgow
The millstone around the SNP's neck, the unfair advantage on election day, the deep-seated psyche sitting in Scotland's largest city that opposition parties are (quite literally) waiting to watch die out. I am of course referring to the seemingly immovable position of FPTP Labour MSPs in Glasgow seats.
When I drew up this Excel spreadsheet to assess how SNP could win this election, it was rather depressing to bring up my First Past the Post tab and see a clean sweep in Glasgow (not to mention Central and West of Scotland, save for Denis Canavan at Falkirk West).
This is the stranglehold that the SNP needs to bust a hole in if they are to have any chance of being the largest party in Holyrood. I know that's perfectly obvious to most who will read this but it deserves underlining (which I would do if I knew how to work this Blog thing, stay with me folks)
SNP are so far back in some seats given the 2003 numbers that I just can't see the breakthrough coming this year, and to be honest, I don't know enough about places like Anniesland (28% majority), Baillieston (43% majority), Maryhill (30% majority), Shettleston (38% majority) and Springburn (44% majority) to really give SNP voters any hope of a change.
But in terms of tactical voting, SNP come second the majority of the time in Glasgow so there's no reason to think that backing a random Tory, Lib Dem or orange Solidarity candidate could unseat anyone here.
I have Nicola Sturgeon down as being able to defeat Gordon 'two jobs' Jackson as she was mightily close last time. Govan is target seat number 7 on the SNP listing based solely on 2003 results after all. However, I see Margaret Curran, Patricia Ferguson, Frank MacAveety etc etc all returning for another 4 years.
So, in terms of tactical voting, if you live in Glasgow just vote SNP 1st vote and 2nd vote and, I don't know, go to church twice as often perhaps and hope/pray soemthing gives!
Note however that this could be the sporting equivalent of giving someone a 2-0 headstart. Such a ploy often makes the 'losing' team try all the harder to make the difference up so it's not all doom and gloom for the Glaswegian SNP if you want to be a bit deluded and see it my way.
When I drew up this Excel spreadsheet to assess how SNP could win this election, it was rather depressing to bring up my First Past the Post tab and see a clean sweep in Glasgow (not to mention Central and West of Scotland, save for Denis Canavan at Falkirk West).
This is the stranglehold that the SNP needs to bust a hole in if they are to have any chance of being the largest party in Holyrood. I know that's perfectly obvious to most who will read this but it deserves underlining (which I would do if I knew how to work this Blog thing, stay with me folks)
SNP are so far back in some seats given the 2003 numbers that I just can't see the breakthrough coming this year, and to be honest, I don't know enough about places like Anniesland (28% majority), Baillieston (43% majority), Maryhill (30% majority), Shettleston (38% majority) and Springburn (44% majority) to really give SNP voters any hope of a change.
But in terms of tactical voting, SNP come second the majority of the time in Glasgow so there's no reason to think that backing a random Tory, Lib Dem or orange Solidarity candidate could unseat anyone here.
I have Nicola Sturgeon down as being able to defeat Gordon 'two jobs' Jackson as she was mightily close last time. Govan is target seat number 7 on the SNP listing based solely on 2003 results after all. However, I see Margaret Curran, Patricia Ferguson, Frank MacAveety etc etc all returning for another 4 years.
So, in terms of tactical voting, if you live in Glasgow just vote SNP 1st vote and 2nd vote and, I don't know, go to church twice as often perhaps and hope/pray soemthing gives!
Note however that this could be the sporting equivalent of giving someone a 2-0 headstart. Such a ploy often makes the 'losing' team try all the harder to make the difference up so it's not all doom and gloom for the Glaswegian SNP if you want to be a bit deluded and see it my way.
Monday, February 5, 2007
Predictions - Edinburgh
Ah Edinburgh, home of the Scottish parliament where the Holyrood magic happens. I would like to say the city is pulsating with political thought but I think a few bursts with the fibulator pads may be required before that can hold true.
But this is one of the more interesting areas where the true rainbow nature of the election result in 2003 was on show. Who can forget 2 Green MSPs being elected in the same constituency? Or the image of Colin Fox racing through the crowds when he realised he had snared the 7th regional seat? Or the Lib Dem stalwart Mike Pringle shaking his cane in joy at limping over the finish line to claim Edinburgh South? Not to mention the finest head to head of that year, McLetchie vs Gray.
Labour have always had a fairly strong hold in Edinburgh however, if SNP were to match Labour here, I personally think they would be doing well. Very well. They may triumph in the regional vote but there are just one too many strong personalities in the first past the post stakes for SNP to really challenge.
Edinburgh Central - Sarah Boyack is a strong candidate and in my predictions will win the seat but her vote share has gone from 14,224 in 1999 to 9,066 in 2003. However, SNP and Lib Dem seem to be battling for second place here with each taking votes from the other. There's no reason why SNP should tactically vote here as they have a strong challenger in Shirley Anne Somerville and, anyway, it is unknown who the Lib Dem challenger is. I don't see a Lib Dem win here so hopefully some of their voters will see the merits in voting for Shirley.
Also, I personally think that her spiel on why Scotland should be independent is as persuading as anything else I have read on the matter. See here - http://www.alba.org.uk/scot07constit/l01.html
No tactical voting required.
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - This one is fascinating. And is the kind of seat that if SNP takes it then they can expect to have a really good night.
On the face of it, it's a safe seat for Labour. A 21% majority in 2003, that needs a massive swing for Kenny MacAskill to make up. But the highly popular Susan Deacon is not seeking another term as the MSP here, with Lord Provost Lesley Hinds looking like the favourite to take the Labour candidacy. This would be a bit of a switch from "firebrand" Susan Deacon to a more middle-of-the road Labour type and, I think, would close that 22% gap a fair bit. Add to this that Kenny MacAskill's profile has been particularly high over the past 4 years and, hopefully, the electorate want some people with real character in there.
Again, this one is too close to call between SNP and Labour and no tactical voting is required here.
Edinburgh North and Leith - I always read the extremely likeable SNP candidate Davie Hutchison's blog here - http://northtoleith.blogspot.com/
This is my home consituency and I can never remember the SNP challengers being anything more than than a faceless name on a list. But then, my little interest in politics back then might have had something to do with it. Davie seems to be really pushing much harder this year but sadly, going up against Malcolm Chisholm is no easy feat especially with the tactically astute resignation over Labour's commitment to all things nuclear.
In 2003 Malcolm Chisholm received double the votes of Anne Dana (SNP), the nearest challenger. I think Davie Hutchison will close that gap to a small majority, and not just because of the natural trend towards SNP in the polls at the moment, but I can't see a well-liked character like Malcolm Chisholm losing his seat.
There's a great blog regarding this consitituency here - http://northandleith.blogspot.com/
No tactical voting required. Get behind Davie and see if he can pull off a shock.
Edinburgh Pentlands - An easy David McLetchie victory. Nuff said.
This is acceptable for SNP as they may well profit in the regional listing. (Tories getting one extra MSP as opposed to two if Labour had won the seat. Note that labour are expected to get 0 regional seats in Lothian)
Tactical voting? Seems odd, but vote for McLetchie I suppose.
Edinburgh South - This seat was won by Mike Pringle in 2003 by 158 seats. The SNP finished fourth.
Labour have brought in a bit of a heavyweight for this one in the shape of Donald Anderson, leader of Edinburgh City Council from 1999 until August 2005. Donald is also a board member of Visit Scotland.
Now, my non-partisan opinion is that Donald Anderson would be a strong addition to the parliament, a genuine character and someone who's opinion would be highly valued (if he doesn't easily fall into party lines of course). My head says he will win this seat, and a part of my heart does too.
However, with SNP seemingly not in the hunt for this seat, a vote for the Lib Dems may be the sensible option. Granted, it is difficult to tell the difference between a Lib Dem and a Labour vote given the past 8 years but (1) Lib Dem may well be the SNP's governing partners come May and (2) a Lib Dem victory here could feasibly allow an extra SNP MSP to sneak in on the regional count.
Therefore, a vote for Mike Pringle is the sensible thing to do here for all those who want an overall SNP victory. Unless you think Donald Anderson is a really nice guy of course.
Edinburgh West - An easy hold for Lib Dem Margaret Smith is expected.
No tactical voting required
Linlithgow - This is Mary Mulligan versus Fiona Hyslop basically. And my analysis and thoughts has it as a Fiona Hyslop victory.
It would only take 1,000 voters switching from Labour to SNP for Fiona to win here and it is the SNP's 9th target seat based solely on 2003 election data.
Linlithgow also doesn't strike me as "staunch Labour" like some areas in the West so with a little bit of a change in the air, I can easily see those voters being amongst the first to mix things up. And with Fiona Hyslop as the candidate who has had a high profile over the life of the parliament and, from what I can tell, does more than a decent job then I see this being a fairly comfortable win once the dust settles.
No tactical voting required.
Livingston - This is a seat that I have marked for special attention when I am sitting in front of BBC News on May 3rd with my bottle of irn-bru and the proclaimers playing softly in the background. I think SNP can win out here and take the dubious scalp of Bristow Muldoon.
I don't profess to know too much about most of the Holyrood personalities but (unless I have my names muddled up) Mr Muldoon hasn't come over too well in the press recently and Angela Constance I believe is extremely popular around Livingston. She stood in the 2006 by-election after Robin Cook's sad passing and managed a 10.2% swing there. The same result would mean she would take the seat for SNP and, let's face it, it's easier to get such swings in Holyrood elections than in Westminster elections. However, by-elections are a tricky business and tend to screw polling data around a bit.
Even still, no tactical voting required, Angela Constance is favourite here in my eyes despite this not being an SNP target seat based on the 2003 result.
Midlothian - Another tricky one.
You see, on one hand, you have Rhona Brankin who even local Labour delegates didn't want to stand in the constituency. Then on the other hand you have a 24% winning margin for Rhona in 2003. So it's not easy to call.
I have decided 23% is too large a swing for SNP to make up but that's my natural prudence, I mean caution, coming in to play there.
This is a 2 horse race between Colin Beattie (SNP) and Rhona Brankin. Maybe with some Lib Dem or Tory tactical voting, it will be an SNP victory. Clearly, no tactical voting on the SNP side is required.
And that, as they say, is that.
Using current polling info and local knowledge I have on Edinburgh and 2003 results etc etc. I have predicted that the regional vote will give a result of -- SNP (3), Green (2), Tory (1) and Margo McD (1).
(The fantastic Comrade Fox will have to wait another four years to go charging through the crowds in celebration, by my reckoning)
But this is one of the more interesting areas where the true rainbow nature of the election result in 2003 was on show. Who can forget 2 Green MSPs being elected in the same constituency? Or the image of Colin Fox racing through the crowds when he realised he had snared the 7th regional seat? Or the Lib Dem stalwart Mike Pringle shaking his cane in joy at limping over the finish line to claim Edinburgh South? Not to mention the finest head to head of that year, McLetchie vs Gray.
Labour have always had a fairly strong hold in Edinburgh however, if SNP were to match Labour here, I personally think they would be doing well. Very well. They may triumph in the regional vote but there are just one too many strong personalities in the first past the post stakes for SNP to really challenge.
Edinburgh Central - Sarah Boyack is a strong candidate and in my predictions will win the seat but her vote share has gone from 14,224 in 1999 to 9,066 in 2003. However, SNP and Lib Dem seem to be battling for second place here with each taking votes from the other. There's no reason why SNP should tactically vote here as they have a strong challenger in Shirley Anne Somerville and, anyway, it is unknown who the Lib Dem challenger is. I don't see a Lib Dem win here so hopefully some of their voters will see the merits in voting for Shirley.
Also, I personally think that her spiel on why Scotland should be independent is as persuading as anything else I have read on the matter. See here - http://www.alba.org.uk/scot07constit/l01.html
No tactical voting required.
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - This one is fascinating. And is the kind of seat that if SNP takes it then they can expect to have a really good night.
On the face of it, it's a safe seat for Labour. A 21% majority in 2003, that needs a massive swing for Kenny MacAskill to make up. But the highly popular Susan Deacon is not seeking another term as the MSP here, with Lord Provost Lesley Hinds looking like the favourite to take the Labour candidacy. This would be a bit of a switch from "firebrand" Susan Deacon to a more middle-of-the road Labour type and, I think, would close that 22% gap a fair bit. Add to this that Kenny MacAskill's profile has been particularly high over the past 4 years and, hopefully, the electorate want some people with real character in there.
Again, this one is too close to call between SNP and Labour and no tactical voting is required here.
Edinburgh North and Leith - I always read the extremely likeable SNP candidate Davie Hutchison's blog here - http://northtoleith.blogspot.com/
This is my home consituency and I can never remember the SNP challengers being anything more than than a faceless name on a list. But then, my little interest in politics back then might have had something to do with it. Davie seems to be really pushing much harder this year but sadly, going up against Malcolm Chisholm is no easy feat especially with the tactically astute resignation over Labour's commitment to all things nuclear.
In 2003 Malcolm Chisholm received double the votes of Anne Dana (SNP), the nearest challenger. I think Davie Hutchison will close that gap to a small majority, and not just because of the natural trend towards SNP in the polls at the moment, but I can't see a well-liked character like Malcolm Chisholm losing his seat.
There's a great blog regarding this consitituency here - http://northandleith.blogspot.com/
No tactical voting required. Get behind Davie and see if he can pull off a shock.
Edinburgh Pentlands - An easy David McLetchie victory. Nuff said.
This is acceptable for SNP as they may well profit in the regional listing. (Tories getting one extra MSP as opposed to two if Labour had won the seat. Note that labour are expected to get 0 regional seats in Lothian)
Tactical voting? Seems odd, but vote for McLetchie I suppose.
Edinburgh South - This seat was won by Mike Pringle in 2003 by 158 seats. The SNP finished fourth.
Labour have brought in a bit of a heavyweight for this one in the shape of Donald Anderson, leader of Edinburgh City Council from 1999 until August 2005. Donald is also a board member of Visit Scotland.
Now, my non-partisan opinion is that Donald Anderson would be a strong addition to the parliament, a genuine character and someone who's opinion would be highly valued (if he doesn't easily fall into party lines of course). My head says he will win this seat, and a part of my heart does too.
However, with SNP seemingly not in the hunt for this seat, a vote for the Lib Dems may be the sensible option. Granted, it is difficult to tell the difference between a Lib Dem and a Labour vote given the past 8 years but (1) Lib Dem may well be the SNP's governing partners come May and (2) a Lib Dem victory here could feasibly allow an extra SNP MSP to sneak in on the regional count.
Therefore, a vote for Mike Pringle is the sensible thing to do here for all those who want an overall SNP victory. Unless you think Donald Anderson is a really nice guy of course.
Edinburgh West - An easy hold for Lib Dem Margaret Smith is expected.
No tactical voting required
Linlithgow - This is Mary Mulligan versus Fiona Hyslop basically. And my analysis and thoughts has it as a Fiona Hyslop victory.
It would only take 1,000 voters switching from Labour to SNP for Fiona to win here and it is the SNP's 9th target seat based solely on 2003 election data.
Linlithgow also doesn't strike me as "staunch Labour" like some areas in the West so with a little bit of a change in the air, I can easily see those voters being amongst the first to mix things up. And with Fiona Hyslop as the candidate who has had a high profile over the life of the parliament and, from what I can tell, does more than a decent job then I see this being a fairly comfortable win once the dust settles.
No tactical voting required.
Livingston - This is a seat that I have marked for special attention when I am sitting in front of BBC News on May 3rd with my bottle of irn-bru and the proclaimers playing softly in the background. I think SNP can win out here and take the dubious scalp of Bristow Muldoon.
I don't profess to know too much about most of the Holyrood personalities but (unless I have my names muddled up) Mr Muldoon hasn't come over too well in the press recently and Angela Constance I believe is extremely popular around Livingston. She stood in the 2006 by-election after Robin Cook's sad passing and managed a 10.2% swing there. The same result would mean she would take the seat for SNP and, let's face it, it's easier to get such swings in Holyrood elections than in Westminster elections. However, by-elections are a tricky business and tend to screw polling data around a bit.
Even still, no tactical voting required, Angela Constance is favourite here in my eyes despite this not being an SNP target seat based on the 2003 result.
Midlothian - Another tricky one.
You see, on one hand, you have Rhona Brankin who even local Labour delegates didn't want to stand in the constituency. Then on the other hand you have a 24% winning margin for Rhona in 2003. So it's not easy to call.
I have decided 23% is too large a swing for SNP to make up but that's my natural prudence, I mean caution, coming in to play there.
This is a 2 horse race between Colin Beattie (SNP) and Rhona Brankin. Maybe with some Lib Dem or Tory tactical voting, it will be an SNP victory. Clearly, no tactical voting on the SNP side is required.
And that, as they say, is that.
Using current polling info and local knowledge I have on Edinburgh and 2003 results etc etc. I have predicted that the regional vote will give a result of -- SNP (3), Green (2), Tory (1) and Margo McD (1).
(The fantastic Comrade Fox will have to wait another four years to go charging through the crowds in celebration, by my reckoning)
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