Yes, with no real knowledge on the subject, no formal planning of what I am about to write and no grasp of the intricacies of Higher Education funding, I think I have the answer.
And it is based squarely on a conversation I had with a female student out in Sydney. (My chat up techniques have always been bad).
How it works is, or how I remember it as working, I did have quite a few Bluetongues and Toohey's New that night, but if a student works a certain amount; that is, if they earn over a certain limit in a year, then they get their tuition fees paid for them by the state. Otherwise, they have to pay for the fees themselves.
So it's a double-win for the students who actually have a work ethic and understand that they have to put in some hard graft for a degree that will help them (and society) in the future. They don't have to pay fees and they have some spending money, society gets fairly low paying jobs filled by enthusiastic youngsters and the government gets some income tax back. And at 20% rather than 10% thanks to Gordon Brown's tax plans.
Tack onto the above that almost all degrees can be done in 3 years rather than 4, saving even more tuition cash, and you have yourself a stunningly good education policy.
I do think that writing off all student debt does seem a bit generous of the SNP (though I won't complain too much as I'll be £5,000 better off!)
But at the same time, emerging from university with a degree which is increasingly meaningless shouldn't cost an arm and a leg. And it certainly shouldn't cost a genuinely hard working youngster the same as what it costs a drop-out or a supremely rich TT-driving toff.
And also, assuming that students have better chat up lines than I do, they will always have the incentive of drinks/clubbing money to get them through 3 or 4 years of minimum-wage labour.
Tuesday, March 27, 2007
G I Jimmy
I am loving this story about getting kids involved in national service training schemes.
Infact, if I was First Minister for a day I think some sort of national service would be one of my top 3 policies. Seriously. Good job Jack McConnell. If that is infact your real name...
Kids leave school in Scotland at the age of 16-18. Girls have had the angst of teenage rebellion, constant worry about boys, best friends, best friends dumping them for other friends etc etc Emotional trauma through and through. Boys just play football all day and occasionally have the odd fight or avoid all of the above by joining the chess, choir and debating society. (Yes, I am talking about myself here!)
They stagger out the front door with their stupid small ties and shirts untucked to their knees. How are such simpletons expected to know what university degree to follow or apprenticeships to take when they can barely tie their own shoelaces.
And keeping in mind the pensions crisis and the fact we are all going to have to work till we're 80 anyway, what's the rush in getting into the rat race or falling asleep at the back of a lecture hall in some college. Pace yourself, know what career you want after a year out and then more effort will be put into studies preventing the 50% drop out rates that were once seen in the late 90s.
A bit of voluntary service and getting to understand how the world works outside of Maths class would be invaluable for kids at a tricky age. I know a guy who drove ambulances for the army in Germany after he left school, says it did him the world of good. He's now 28 and you'll struggle to meet a sharper more world aware person. Of course, he was probably a bit of a genius while at school but we can gloss over that.
Of course, having seen Fahrenheit 9/11 and the unfortunate tactics of the US Army recruiting sargeants targetting malls and job centres in deeply deprived areas, there is a chance this is a similar ploy to boost the army's numbers with "cannon fodder". I sincerely hope not but then, who knows where our overstretched soldiers may have to be sent to next.
But for now, good effort Jack McDonald. I salute you.
Infact, if I was First Minister for a day I think some sort of national service would be one of my top 3 policies. Seriously. Good job Jack McConnell. If that is infact your real name...
Kids leave school in Scotland at the age of 16-18. Girls have had the angst of teenage rebellion, constant worry about boys, best friends, best friends dumping them for other friends etc etc Emotional trauma through and through. Boys just play football all day and occasionally have the odd fight or avoid all of the above by joining the chess, choir and debating society. (Yes, I am talking about myself here!)
They stagger out the front door with their stupid small ties and shirts untucked to their knees. How are such simpletons expected to know what university degree to follow or apprenticeships to take when they can barely tie their own shoelaces.
And keeping in mind the pensions crisis and the fact we are all going to have to work till we're 80 anyway, what's the rush in getting into the rat race or falling asleep at the back of a lecture hall in some college. Pace yourself, know what career you want after a year out and then more effort will be put into studies preventing the 50% drop out rates that were once seen in the late 90s.
A bit of voluntary service and getting to understand how the world works outside of Maths class would be invaluable for kids at a tricky age. I know a guy who drove ambulances for the army in Germany after he left school, says it did him the world of good. He's now 28 and you'll struggle to meet a sharper more world aware person. Of course, he was probably a bit of a genius while at school but we can gloss over that.
Of course, having seen Fahrenheit 9/11 and the unfortunate tactics of the US Army recruiting sargeants targetting malls and job centres in deeply deprived areas, there is a chance this is a similar ploy to boost the army's numbers with "cannon fodder". I sincerely hope not but then, who knows where our overstretched soldiers may have to be sent to next.
But for now, good effort Jack McDonald. I salute you.
Sunday, March 25, 2007
You heard it here first
"Labour admits meltdown in crucial election seats"
This kind of story is what I love to read. Strip out the actual politics and let's talk about who is winning and who is losing.
Sadly, there is not much breaking news in there for me but then (1) I'm a geek who has been looking into the constituency battlegrounds for a few months now and (2) with the SNP taking big leads in the polls, it's not such a great shock that Labour are going to lose a few marginals.
But still, I felt duty-bound to assess the article paragraph by paragraph:
Glasgow Govan is the first seat mentioned. Nicola is indeed well placed to finally win there for the SNP. Gordon Jackson has been close to standing down as the Labour candidate, infact I am still not entirely sure who will be standing as the SoS reports it is Gordon standing for a third (and final) time. Either way, Nicola will walk it.
Dundee West is "a goner" apparently. As mentioned here, Joe Fitzpatrick should indeed take this constituency from Labour as Jill Shimmi is making a bit of a hash of the election campaign.
Kilmarnock & Loudon and Cumbernauld & Kilsyth are said to be going well for the SNP. Good news for Willie Coffey and Jamie Hepburn who are running there. Both seats are in the Central constituency.
The remainder of the article discusses the potentially damaging Labour approach of SNP-bashing. It ignores the other parties and allows them to maintain or grow the support they enjoyed in 2003.
Edinburgh Central is mentioned in the Lothians. It has been no secret that Labour and Sarah Boyack in particular are worried about their chances of holding on to this constituency. I still think they have a good chance as some Lib Dem votes will go to SNP and some Labour votes will go to Lib Dem and Sarah has a strong majority to begin with. It is a genuine 3way race basically and I have called it for Labour though I secretly hope Shirley Anne Sommerville can win it for the SNP and I think she has as much right to be optimistic as the Lib Dems.
Dumfries is mentioned as having a strong Tory challenge there. It is certainly a two-horse race and as I will soon suggest in my South of Scotland predicition, tactical voting for Murray Tosh is a good plan there. I do not see the Tories having a spectacular night on May 3rd, but Dumfries could well be one of their success stories.
The final seat that is mentioned is that of Greenock and Inverclyde. The SoS states that the Lib Dems are hopeful of a shock win in this constituency and I personally wouldn't see it as too much of a shock. Ross Finnie of the Lib Dems is a well known figure and usually that alone can give you a good bump in any seat. He stands against Duncan MacNeil of Labour and I can quite easily seeing the Lib Dems pulling off a gain there.
Again, in the interests of SNP Tactical Voting, putting your x for Ross Finnie in this constituency is a good plan.
And that was it. A good if somewhat short article. The reason for the news article is strange though since it came from a Labour source. Were they trying to get the Labour vote out by explaining how desperate things are? Or maybe they were just having a bad day and fancied a wee rant.
Either way, it is nice to know that my predictions on the election battlegrounds have been compounded by a Labour source.
This kind of story is what I love to read. Strip out the actual politics and let's talk about who is winning and who is losing.
Sadly, there is not much breaking news in there for me but then (1) I'm a geek who has been looking into the constituency battlegrounds for a few months now and (2) with the SNP taking big leads in the polls, it's not such a great shock that Labour are going to lose a few marginals.
But still, I felt duty-bound to assess the article paragraph by paragraph:
Glasgow Govan is the first seat mentioned. Nicola is indeed well placed to finally win there for the SNP. Gordon Jackson has been close to standing down as the Labour candidate, infact I am still not entirely sure who will be standing as the SoS reports it is Gordon standing for a third (and final) time. Either way, Nicola will walk it.
Dundee West is "a goner" apparently. As mentioned here, Joe Fitzpatrick should indeed take this constituency from Labour as Jill Shimmi is making a bit of a hash of the election campaign.
Kilmarnock & Loudon and Cumbernauld & Kilsyth are said to be going well for the SNP. Good news for Willie Coffey and Jamie Hepburn who are running there. Both seats are in the Central constituency.
The remainder of the article discusses the potentially damaging Labour approach of SNP-bashing. It ignores the other parties and allows them to maintain or grow the support they enjoyed in 2003.
Edinburgh Central is mentioned in the Lothians. It has been no secret that Labour and Sarah Boyack in particular are worried about their chances of holding on to this constituency. I still think they have a good chance as some Lib Dem votes will go to SNP and some Labour votes will go to Lib Dem and Sarah has a strong majority to begin with. It is a genuine 3way race basically and I have called it for Labour though I secretly hope Shirley Anne Sommerville can win it for the SNP and I think she has as much right to be optimistic as the Lib Dems.
Dumfries is mentioned as having a strong Tory challenge there. It is certainly a two-horse race and as I will soon suggest in my South of Scotland predicition, tactical voting for Murray Tosh is a good plan there. I do not see the Tories having a spectacular night on May 3rd, but Dumfries could well be one of their success stories.
The final seat that is mentioned is that of Greenock and Inverclyde. The SoS states that the Lib Dems are hopeful of a shock win in this constituency and I personally wouldn't see it as too much of a shock. Ross Finnie of the Lib Dems is a well known figure and usually that alone can give you a good bump in any seat. He stands against Duncan MacNeil of Labour and I can quite easily seeing the Lib Dems pulling off a gain there.
Again, in the interests of SNP Tactical Voting, putting your x for Ross Finnie in this constituency is a good plan.
And that was it. A good if somewhat short article. The reason for the news article is strange though since it came from a Labour source. Were they trying to get the Labour vote out by explaining how desperate things are? Or maybe they were just having a bad day and fancied a wee rant.
Either way, it is nice to know that my predictions on the election battlegrounds have been compounded by a Labour source.
North East Region
First Vote
Aberdeen Central - 2003 result of Lewis MacDonald (Labour) 33% over Richard Lochhead (SNP) 27%
On paper, this should be the kind of seat that the SNP should win given how strong a position they are in compared to 2003. This is after all, their 8th target seat going simply on numbers.
For some reason, and maybe I am putting too much stock in Lewis' ministerial post, but I see Labour holding on here. Clinging on infact but as we saw at Hampden against Georgia, a win's a win!
Aberdeen North - 2003 result of Brian Adam (SNP) 33% over Elaine Thomson (Labour) 32%
Elaine Thomson lost this seat in 2003 and I expect the misery to be compounded by an increased majority for Brian Adam.
Aberdeen South - 2003 result of Nicol Stephen (Lib Dems) 46% over Richard Baker (Labour) 19%
An easy win for the Lib Dem leader is expected.
Angus - 2003 result of Andrew Welsh (SNP) 44% over Alex Johnstone (Tory) 22%
An easy win for the SNP candidate is expected.
If Fife is the tightest region, Aberdeen is competing for the least surprising.
Banff & Buchan - 2003 result of Stewart Stevenson (SNP) 53% over Stewart Whyte (Tory) 21%
An easy SNP win is expected in Alex Salmond's Westminster constituency.
Dundee East - 2003 result of Shona Robison (SNP) 40% over John McAllion (Labour) 39%
A very tight race in 2003 and probably the same again given the Labour candidate is the ex-leader of the Dundee City Council. No doubt he is a well known figure in the area and his election record in Wesminster and for the council is impressive.
However, I expect Shona to benefit from the high level of SNP support at the moment and to consolidate on the 2003 result.
Dundee West - 2003 result of Kate McLean (Labour) 33% over Irene McGugan (SNP) 29%
Joe fitzpatrick of the SNP is expected to win this seat fairly comfortably. According to a Labour source (how reliable noone knows) this seat is already "a goner". To be fair, Labour's Jill Shimmi has not acquitted herself well as a local councillor by many accounts.
Gordon - 2003 result of Nora Radcliffe (Lib Dems) 38% over Nanette Milne (Tory) 24% and Alasdair Allan (SNP) 23%
Alex Salmond is standing here and is strongly expected to win this seat though it is by no means a certainty. There is a large majority to make up in this area which is certainly a bit of a Lib Dem stronghold. Add to that some tactical voting by the Tories and Labour to try to embarrass Alex by getting in on the lists (or not elected at all!) and this seat is definitely one to watch.
Regardless of the above, I am sure the good people of Gordon would not wish to humiliate Alex and I expect him to win easily.
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 2003 result of Mike Rumbles (Lib Dems) 46% over David Davidson (Tory) 29%
A Lib Dem fortress. Mike Rumbles to win fairly easily.
Second Vote
Given the above, the second vote is expected to pan out as follows:
1 Alex Johnstone (Tory)
2 Richard Baker (Labour)
3 Alison McInnes (Lib Dem)
4 Nanette Milne (Tory)
5 Lib Dem Candidate #2
6 Marilyn Glen (Labour)
7 Maureen Watt (SNP)
8 David Davidson (Tory)
SNP 44%
Lib Dems 29%
Labour 20%
Tory 18%
Green 5%
SSP 1%
Tactical Voting
No tactical voting required in the North East.
Aberdeen Central - 2003 result of Lewis MacDonald (Labour) 33% over Richard Lochhead (SNP) 27%
On paper, this should be the kind of seat that the SNP should win given how strong a position they are in compared to 2003. This is after all, their 8th target seat going simply on numbers.
For some reason, and maybe I am putting too much stock in Lewis' ministerial post, but I see Labour holding on here. Clinging on infact but as we saw at Hampden against Georgia, a win's a win!
Aberdeen North - 2003 result of Brian Adam (SNP) 33% over Elaine Thomson (Labour) 32%
Elaine Thomson lost this seat in 2003 and I expect the misery to be compounded by an increased majority for Brian Adam.
Aberdeen South - 2003 result of Nicol Stephen (Lib Dems) 46% over Richard Baker (Labour) 19%
An easy win for the Lib Dem leader is expected.
Angus - 2003 result of Andrew Welsh (SNP) 44% over Alex Johnstone (Tory) 22%
An easy win for the SNP candidate is expected.
If Fife is the tightest region, Aberdeen is competing for the least surprising.
Banff & Buchan - 2003 result of Stewart Stevenson (SNP) 53% over Stewart Whyte (Tory) 21%
An easy SNP win is expected in Alex Salmond's Westminster constituency.
Dundee East - 2003 result of Shona Robison (SNP) 40% over John McAllion (Labour) 39%
A very tight race in 2003 and probably the same again given the Labour candidate is the ex-leader of the Dundee City Council. No doubt he is a well known figure in the area and his election record in Wesminster and for the council is impressive.
However, I expect Shona to benefit from the high level of SNP support at the moment and to consolidate on the 2003 result.
Dundee West - 2003 result of Kate McLean (Labour) 33% over Irene McGugan (SNP) 29%
Joe fitzpatrick of the SNP is expected to win this seat fairly comfortably. According to a Labour source (how reliable noone knows) this seat is already "a goner". To be fair, Labour's Jill Shimmi has not acquitted herself well as a local councillor by many accounts.
Gordon - 2003 result of Nora Radcliffe (Lib Dems) 38% over Nanette Milne (Tory) 24% and Alasdair Allan (SNP) 23%
Alex Salmond is standing here and is strongly expected to win this seat though it is by no means a certainty. There is a large majority to make up in this area which is certainly a bit of a Lib Dem stronghold. Add to that some tactical voting by the Tories and Labour to try to embarrass Alex by getting in on the lists (or not elected at all!) and this seat is definitely one to watch.
Regardless of the above, I am sure the good people of Gordon would not wish to humiliate Alex and I expect him to win easily.
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine - 2003 result of Mike Rumbles (Lib Dems) 46% over David Davidson (Tory) 29%
A Lib Dem fortress. Mike Rumbles to win fairly easily.
Second Vote
Given the above, the second vote is expected to pan out as follows:
1 Alex Johnstone (Tory)
2 Richard Baker (Labour)
3 Alison McInnes (Lib Dem)
4 Nanette Milne (Tory)
5 Lib Dem Candidate #2
6 Marilyn Glen (Labour)
7 Maureen Watt (SNP)
8 David Davidson (Tory)
SNP 44%
Lib Dems 29%
Labour 20%
Tory 18%
Green 5%
SSP 1%
Tactical Voting
No tactical voting required in the North East.
Mid Scotland and Fife
First Vote
Central Fife - 2003 result of Christine May (Labour) 41% over Tricia Marwick (SNP) 31%
I had recently been giving this one to Labour but given that I thought I was being too cautious with regard to the seats the SNP could win I decided to give a few tight battles to the nationalists, this one included. And I think this is the kind of seat that could fall into the SNP's hands by a few hundred votes or so.
A difficult one to call really unless you have a feel for the constitutency which I certainly don't. Despite that, I see Tricia taking it.
Dunfermline East - 2003 result of Helen Eadie (Labour) 50% over Janet Law (SNP) 18%
A large majority for Labour to defend here and although it will almost certainly decrease, it should be a safe win for Helen and Labour.
Dunfermline West - 2003 result of Scott Barrie (Labour) 34% over Independent Hospital Candidate 18% and Brian Goodall (SNP) 17%
This could be a tight race, despite a fairly sizeable lead for Scott in the last election. There is no notable independent candidate standing as far as I am aware and therefore the 18% is up for grabs, arguably the majority of which will go the SNP way.
Much like Central Fife, it is almost too close to call but I will give it to Scott Barrie rather than Len Woods (SNP candidate).
Kirkcaldy - 2003 result of Marilyn Livingston (Labour) 47% over Colin Welsh (SNP) 25%
A fairly chunky lead for Marilyn to defend here. I think she will just about manage to see off Professor Chris Harvie, but another very close race in Fife is expected. I suspect the people of the Kingdom will be getting a lot of pamphlets through the door and hassle on the street as this could be the tightest region of them all.
North East Fife - 2003 result of Iain Smith (Lib Dems) 46% over Ted Brocklebank (Tory) 29%
A fairly remarkable seat where the SNP and Labour picked up only 20% of the vote last time around. So regarding SNP tactical voting, there isn't much to say as Labour have no chance and seemingly neither do the SNP going by the 2003 results.
Both Iain and Ted picked up their share of the vote in 2003 and I can imagine both guys being popular locally so I predict this is a 2-horse race between them. I have given the seat to Iain Smith in my set of numbers.
North Tayside - 2003 result of John Swinney (SNP) 45% over Murdo Fraser (Tory) 31%
A relatively easy win for John Swinney is expected despite Murdo's increased profile over the past 4 years.
Ochil - 2003 result of George Reid (SNP) 38% over Richard Simpson (Labour) 37%
A very, very tight one here. Keith Brown stands for the SNP and has some big shoes to fill as George Reid is arguably the most capable and popular MSP to date in Holyrood. Councillor Brian Fearon stands for Labour but I give this one to SNP, Keith to hold it by a slim margin.
Note that in today's Scotland on Sunday, Labour have admitted they don't fancy their chances of winning back Ochil. Maybe the Labour member was just having a bad day but the line "Ochil is pretty bad too. We don't think we're going to get it back" augurs well for the SNP's chances.
Perth - 2003 result of Roseanna Cunningham (SNP) 34% over Alexander Stewart (Tory) 32%
Liz Smith is a strong contender for the Perth constituency, coming within 48 votes of winning here in the UK election in 2001. It is certainly a straight fight between the two parties and a bit of tactical voting on the part of Labour could quite easily give this one to the Conservatives.
But Roseanna Cunningham is a strong personality in the nationalist party and I would expect her share of the vote to go up, and I also expect her to stave off Liz's strong challenge here.
Stirling - 2003 result of Sylvia Jackson (Labour) 36% over Bob Dalrymple (Tory) 26% and Bruce Crawford (SNP) 19%
A potential 3 way race here with Sylvia's share of the vote expected to fall, the Tory's to stay quite constant and the SNP to increase on their 19%.
I don't see the Conservatives winning here though and sadly, I don't see the SNP vote increasing enough to oust Sylvia this year.
Second Vote
Given the above results in the first vote, the following candidates would be voted in on the second vote assuming the vote share shown below was followed:
1 Murdo Fraser
2 Alex Cole Hamilton
3 Liz Smith
4 Bruce Crawford
5 Mark Ruskell
6 Keith Brown
7 Andrew Arbuckle
8 Ted Brocklebank
(not a good advert for equal opportunities with 1 woman making up the all white list, just noticed that there)
SNP 35%
Labour 24%
Lib Dems 17%
Tory 16%
Green 6%
SSP 1.3%
Tactical Voting
None to speak of. Infact, SNP has more to lose than gain if tactical voting is employed at all in Fife by any party.
Central Fife - 2003 result of Christine May (Labour) 41% over Tricia Marwick (SNP) 31%
I had recently been giving this one to Labour but given that I thought I was being too cautious with regard to the seats the SNP could win I decided to give a few tight battles to the nationalists, this one included. And I think this is the kind of seat that could fall into the SNP's hands by a few hundred votes or so.
A difficult one to call really unless you have a feel for the constitutency which I certainly don't. Despite that, I see Tricia taking it.
Dunfermline East - 2003 result of Helen Eadie (Labour) 50% over Janet Law (SNP) 18%
A large majority for Labour to defend here and although it will almost certainly decrease, it should be a safe win for Helen and Labour.
Dunfermline West - 2003 result of Scott Barrie (Labour) 34% over Independent Hospital Candidate 18% and Brian Goodall (SNP) 17%
This could be a tight race, despite a fairly sizeable lead for Scott in the last election. There is no notable independent candidate standing as far as I am aware and therefore the 18% is up for grabs, arguably the majority of which will go the SNP way.
Much like Central Fife, it is almost too close to call but I will give it to Scott Barrie rather than Len Woods (SNP candidate).
Kirkcaldy - 2003 result of Marilyn Livingston (Labour) 47% over Colin Welsh (SNP) 25%
A fairly chunky lead for Marilyn to defend here. I think she will just about manage to see off Professor Chris Harvie, but another very close race in Fife is expected. I suspect the people of the Kingdom will be getting a lot of pamphlets through the door and hassle on the street as this could be the tightest region of them all.
North East Fife - 2003 result of Iain Smith (Lib Dems) 46% over Ted Brocklebank (Tory) 29%
A fairly remarkable seat where the SNP and Labour picked up only 20% of the vote last time around. So regarding SNP tactical voting, there isn't much to say as Labour have no chance and seemingly neither do the SNP going by the 2003 results.
Both Iain and Ted picked up their share of the vote in 2003 and I can imagine both guys being popular locally so I predict this is a 2-horse race between them. I have given the seat to Iain Smith in my set of numbers.
North Tayside - 2003 result of John Swinney (SNP) 45% over Murdo Fraser (Tory) 31%
A relatively easy win for John Swinney is expected despite Murdo's increased profile over the past 4 years.
Ochil - 2003 result of George Reid (SNP) 38% over Richard Simpson (Labour) 37%
A very, very tight one here. Keith Brown stands for the SNP and has some big shoes to fill as George Reid is arguably the most capable and popular MSP to date in Holyrood. Councillor Brian Fearon stands for Labour but I give this one to SNP, Keith to hold it by a slim margin.
Note that in today's Scotland on Sunday, Labour have admitted they don't fancy their chances of winning back Ochil. Maybe the Labour member was just having a bad day but the line "Ochil is pretty bad too. We don't think we're going to get it back" augurs well for the SNP's chances.
Perth - 2003 result of Roseanna Cunningham (SNP) 34% over Alexander Stewart (Tory) 32%
Liz Smith is a strong contender for the Perth constituency, coming within 48 votes of winning here in the UK election in 2001. It is certainly a straight fight between the two parties and a bit of tactical voting on the part of Labour could quite easily give this one to the Conservatives.
But Roseanna Cunningham is a strong personality in the nationalist party and I would expect her share of the vote to go up, and I also expect her to stave off Liz's strong challenge here.
Stirling - 2003 result of Sylvia Jackson (Labour) 36% over Bob Dalrymple (Tory) 26% and Bruce Crawford (SNP) 19%
A potential 3 way race here with Sylvia's share of the vote expected to fall, the Tory's to stay quite constant and the SNP to increase on their 19%.
I don't see the Conservatives winning here though and sadly, I don't see the SNP vote increasing enough to oust Sylvia this year.
Second Vote
Given the above results in the first vote, the following candidates would be voted in on the second vote assuming the vote share shown below was followed:
1 Murdo Fraser
2 Alex Cole Hamilton
3 Liz Smith
4 Bruce Crawford
5 Mark Ruskell
6 Keith Brown
7 Andrew Arbuckle
8 Ted Brocklebank
(not a good advert for equal opportunities with 1 woman making up the all white list, just noticed that there)
SNP 35%
Labour 24%
Lib Dems 17%
Tory 16%
Green 6%
SSP 1.3%
Tactical Voting
None to speak of. Infact, SNP has more to lose than gain if tactical voting is employed at all in Fife by any party.
Tuesday, March 20, 2007
Highlands and Islands Region
Ahh, Scotland's back garden. Skye, Shetlands, John O'Groats, Orkney. All places that I shamefully have never been to but something I plan on redressing some time very soon.
So, given that I have never been to these places, it is with a shocking arrogance that I will proceed to set an expectation as to who will win where. So of course, if I am way off base, then step in with a comment or three.
First Vote
Argyll and Bute - 2003 result of George Lyon (Lib Dems) 35% over David Petrie (Tory) 20% and Jim Mather (SNP) 20%
Of all the seats, I think this is the one that is giving me most bother. From a tactical voting point of view, Labour are out of the running and I can't see the Tories taking the seat either. But after that, I'm lost.
The possibilities are :-
George Lyon is a local man and has been MSP here for 8 years, and for these reasons has a strong advantage over the others. He will romp home as a result.
The recent issues regarding Lyon's expenses and his blocking condolences for Winnie Ewing, coupled with an aggrieved electorate regarding the CalMac issue and the Lab-Lib coalition in general are chomping at the bit for a change. Jim Mather of the SNP is well placed to profit and Jim roars home to victory.
Both of the above cancel each other out to an extent and the race is very, very tight indeed.
Of the 3 possibilities, I think I have to go with the 3rd one. And, I will give it to George Lyon, chiefly because he managed to beat Duncan Hamilton in 1999 which to me suggests he has a very strong base here and may well be just enough to see him through.
Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross - 2003 result of Jamie Stone (Lib Dems) 37% over Deirdre Stephen (Labour) 26% and Rob Gibson (17%)
With SNP in 3rd place from 2003, and Labour in 2nd, it could be argued that it makes sense to vote for the Lib Dems here. Tricky to put an X beside Mr Stone's name with the Xenophobe row so fresh in the mind.
Anyway, I don't see John McKendrick of Labour gaining much ground. Shame in a way as the guy seems like a grade A candidate with his law credentials and international experience. So backing Rob Gibson is a sensible policy for this constituency. It's just a shame that it seems a bit of a Lib Dem stronghold and I don't see Jamie Stone gathering any moss in 2007.
Inverness, East Nairn and Lochaber - 2003 result of Fergus Ewing (SNP) 31% over Rhoda Grant (Labour) 28%
An interesting seat this one. On the face of it, it should be a fairly easy hold for Fergus. He has a slight majority but with SNP higher in the polls, there should be no reason to think that he can't extend this lead.
However, the Labour candidate is Linda Stewart whose husband held the local Westminster seat since 1987. She is no doubt a well known figure in the community and if she is popular enough, then I daresay she will give Fergus a very close run.
And as much as I don't want to think about it, the Tories and Lib Dems (with their 11,000 votes) may indulge in some anti-SNP voting. Though they may also want to ensure Labour are removed as the government so here's hoping they tactifully vote the 'correct' way.
Despite the above, I expect Fergus to win this seat.
Moray - 2003 result Richard Lochhead (SNP) 46% over Mary Scanlon (Conservative) 23%
A safe SNP seat with seemingly a popular local MSP. Richard is expected to win, Mary Scanlon will be an MSP thanks to her position at the top of the Tory list vote.
Orkney - 2003 result of Jim Wallace (Lib Dems) 46% over Christopher Zawadski (Tory) 24% and John Mowat (SNP) 13%
Liam MacArthur is the lucky Lib Dem candidate who gets to fill Jim Wallace's shoes in Orkney. He should have a fairly easy ride into Holyrood here.
Ross, Skye and Inverness West - 2003 result of John Farquar Munro (Lib Dems) 43% over David Thompson (SNP) 19%
A very safe seat for the Lib Dems here. John should quite easily win this one and continue representing the area for a 3rd term. The Labour candidate, Maureen MacMillan originally retired and then said she'd stand as Labour couldn't get anyone else. I can't imagine voters will flock to the booths to elect her. And I can't imagine Maureen particularly wants them too!
Shetland - 2003 result of Tavish Scott (Lib Dems) 46% over Willie Ross (SNP) 20%
An easy hold for Tavish Scott as the Lib Dem deputy leader gets back into Holyrood with a large majority expected.
Western Isles - 2003 result of Alasdair Morrison (Labour) 47% over Alasdair Nicholson (SNP) 41%
The only H&I seat to change hands in my book, unless Jim Mather wins the coin toss that is Argyl & Bute of course.
Labour have a very slim majority here and unless Alasdair Morrison has been a particularly effective local MSP for the area, I think Alasdair Allen will win this one fairly easily for the SNP.
Note that this is the ultimate 2 horse race with the 2003 result being, Labour 5,825, SNP 5,105, Tory 612 and Lib Dems 498. It's amazing how Lib Dems get only 498 votes but just a wee jaunt up the road they have a couple of strongholds.
Second Vote
OK, well the first vote wasn't terribly exciting. Too many election battles that are already won for my liking (unless I am misreading this region of course)
So it is to the second vote that we look for some excitement. With Labour having 0 seats in this area, it is a good chance for them to decrease the effect of any losses up here in the North of Scotland.
The second vote result for H&I would be as follows, with the voting splits shown below:
1. Peter Peacock
2. Mary Scanlon
3. Rhoda Grant
4. Jim Mather
5. David Stewart
6. Jamie McGrigor
7. Rob Gibson
8. Green
SNP 31%
Labour 23%
Lib Dems 20%
Tory 15%
Green 6%
SSP 3%
Solidarity 3%
Tactical Voting
Nothing really to shout about. Note only that if the Greens get in here, it may well be at the expense of an SNP candidate.
So, given that I have never been to these places, it is with a shocking arrogance that I will proceed to set an expectation as to who will win where. So of course, if I am way off base, then step in with a comment or three.
First Vote
Argyll and Bute - 2003 result of George Lyon (Lib Dems) 35% over David Petrie (Tory) 20% and Jim Mather (SNP) 20%
Of all the seats, I think this is the one that is giving me most bother. From a tactical voting point of view, Labour are out of the running and I can't see the Tories taking the seat either. But after that, I'm lost.
The possibilities are :-
George Lyon is a local man and has been MSP here for 8 years, and for these reasons has a strong advantage over the others. He will romp home as a result.
The recent issues regarding Lyon's expenses and his blocking condolences for Winnie Ewing, coupled with an aggrieved electorate regarding the CalMac issue and the Lab-Lib coalition in general are chomping at the bit for a change. Jim Mather of the SNP is well placed to profit and Jim roars home to victory.
Both of the above cancel each other out to an extent and the race is very, very tight indeed.
Of the 3 possibilities, I think I have to go with the 3rd one. And, I will give it to George Lyon, chiefly because he managed to beat Duncan Hamilton in 1999 which to me suggests he has a very strong base here and may well be just enough to see him through.
Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross - 2003 result of Jamie Stone (Lib Dems) 37% over Deirdre Stephen (Labour) 26% and Rob Gibson (17%)
With SNP in 3rd place from 2003, and Labour in 2nd, it could be argued that it makes sense to vote for the Lib Dems here. Tricky to put an X beside Mr Stone's name with the Xenophobe row so fresh in the mind.
Anyway, I don't see John McKendrick of Labour gaining much ground. Shame in a way as the guy seems like a grade A candidate with his law credentials and international experience. So backing Rob Gibson is a sensible policy for this constituency. It's just a shame that it seems a bit of a Lib Dem stronghold and I don't see Jamie Stone gathering any moss in 2007.
Inverness, East Nairn and Lochaber - 2003 result of Fergus Ewing (SNP) 31% over Rhoda Grant (Labour) 28%
An interesting seat this one. On the face of it, it should be a fairly easy hold for Fergus. He has a slight majority but with SNP higher in the polls, there should be no reason to think that he can't extend this lead.
However, the Labour candidate is Linda Stewart whose husband held the local Westminster seat since 1987. She is no doubt a well known figure in the community and if she is popular enough, then I daresay she will give Fergus a very close run.
And as much as I don't want to think about it, the Tories and Lib Dems (with their 11,000 votes) may indulge in some anti-SNP voting. Though they may also want to ensure Labour are removed as the government so here's hoping they tactifully vote the 'correct' way.
Despite the above, I expect Fergus to win this seat.
Moray - 2003 result Richard Lochhead (SNP) 46% over Mary Scanlon (Conservative) 23%
A safe SNP seat with seemingly a popular local MSP. Richard is expected to win, Mary Scanlon will be an MSP thanks to her position at the top of the Tory list vote.
Orkney - 2003 result of Jim Wallace (Lib Dems) 46% over Christopher Zawadski (Tory) 24% and John Mowat (SNP) 13%
Liam MacArthur is the lucky Lib Dem candidate who gets to fill Jim Wallace's shoes in Orkney. He should have a fairly easy ride into Holyrood here.
Ross, Skye and Inverness West - 2003 result of John Farquar Munro (Lib Dems) 43% over David Thompson (SNP) 19%
A very safe seat for the Lib Dems here. John should quite easily win this one and continue representing the area for a 3rd term. The Labour candidate, Maureen MacMillan originally retired and then said she'd stand as Labour couldn't get anyone else. I can't imagine voters will flock to the booths to elect her. And I can't imagine Maureen particularly wants them too!
Shetland - 2003 result of Tavish Scott (Lib Dems) 46% over Willie Ross (SNP) 20%
An easy hold for Tavish Scott as the Lib Dem deputy leader gets back into Holyrood with a large majority expected.
Western Isles - 2003 result of Alasdair Morrison (Labour) 47% over Alasdair Nicholson (SNP) 41%
The only H&I seat to change hands in my book, unless Jim Mather wins the coin toss that is Argyl & Bute of course.
Labour have a very slim majority here and unless Alasdair Morrison has been a particularly effective local MSP for the area, I think Alasdair Allen will win this one fairly easily for the SNP.
Note that this is the ultimate 2 horse race with the 2003 result being, Labour 5,825, SNP 5,105, Tory 612 and Lib Dems 498. It's amazing how Lib Dems get only 498 votes but just a wee jaunt up the road they have a couple of strongholds.
Second Vote
OK, well the first vote wasn't terribly exciting. Too many election battles that are already won for my liking (unless I am misreading this region of course)
So it is to the second vote that we look for some excitement. With Labour having 0 seats in this area, it is a good chance for them to decrease the effect of any losses up here in the North of Scotland.
The second vote result for H&I would be as follows, with the voting splits shown below:
1. Peter Peacock
2. Mary Scanlon
3. Rhoda Grant
4. Jim Mather
5. David Stewart
6. Jamie McGrigor
7. Rob Gibson
8. Green
SNP 31%
Labour 23%
Lib Dems 20%
Tory 15%
Green 6%
SSP 3%
Solidarity 3%
Tactical Voting
Nothing really to shout about. Note only that if the Greens get in here, it may well be at the expense of an SNP candidate.
Saturday, March 17, 2007
Edinburgh Region
Edinburgh is a real mixed bag. Tory, Lib Dem and Labour safe seats in this region aswell as Socialist, Independent and Greens making a showing on the list vote in 2003. Annoyingly, there is no safe haven for the SNP but I expect them to make a decent showing here, as we will see...
First Vote
Edinburgh Central - 2003 result of Sarah Boyack (Labour) 32% over Andy Myles (Lib Dems) 23% and Kevin Pringle (SNP) 18%
I expect Sarah Boyack to win the seat but her vote share has gone from 14,224 in 1999 to 9,066 in 2003. However, SNP and Lib Dem seem to be battling for second place here with each taking votes from the other. There's no reason why SNP should tactically vote as they have a strong challenger in Shirley Anne Somerville who I believe has been helping to campaign for a long while now. The Lib Dems on the other hand had a late entrant to the race of Siobhan Mathers, who I also think is a strong challenger. This could be an extremely tight 3-way race if the Labour vote here has slipped more than I appreciate. Also, just to say, I personally think that Shirley Anne's spiel on why Scotland should be independent is as persuading as anything else I have read on the matter.
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - 2003 result of Susan Deacon (Labour) 44% over Kenny MacAskill (SNP) 22%
A difficult one to call here as Kenny MacAskill's stock has risen over the past 4 years and the popular Susan Deacon is not standing here. Labour candidate Norman Murray stands in Susan's place and is somewhat embroiled in the councillor fat cat pay-off issue but despite this, the large majority of 22% is a solid base to build on.
I will still give this seat to Labour but I do hope, and a large part of me thinks, that Kenny has more than a decent shout of winning.
Edinburgh North & Leith - 2003 result of Malcolm Chisholm (Labour) 38% over Anne Dana (SNP) 19%
SNP have a strong challenge in Davie Hutchison, who regularly updates his interesting blog. Unfortunately for Davie, I see Malcolm as being too established and too popular in this constituency to be unseated.
Edinburgh Pentlands - 2003 result of David McLetchie (Tory) 37% over Iain Gray (Labour) 31%
A fairly safe seat for David McLetchie. Labour may well be the only real challengers here so a tactical vote for David would help to guarantee that Labour are frozen out.
Edinburgh South - 2003 result of Mike Pringle (Lib Dems) 32.1% over Angus MacKay (Labour) 31.6%
A wafer-thin victory for the Lib Dems in 2003 and with Donald Anderson standing in 2007, another very close race is expected here. With SNP finishing 4th the last time around this pretty much frees up voters to tactically back Mike Pringle to keep this seat a Lib Dem hold rather than a Labour gain.
Although tight, I expect Mike Pringle to hold on for a win here.
Edinburgh West - 2003 result of Margaret Smith (Lib Dems) 43% over Lord Selkirk (Conservatives) 26%
A rare safe seat for the Lib Dems in the central belt. No surprises are expected here and a tactical vote for Margaret Smith is worth considering though given the unlikelihood of Labour challenging, a vote for the SNP challenger of Sheena Clelland does not carry much risk of letting Labour in by the back door.
Linlithgow - 2003 result of Mary Mulligan (Labour) 42% over Fiona Hyslop (SNP) 35%
A marginal seat for th SNP here and for that reason alone they should be confident of taking it. I don't know much about Mary Mulligan but Fiona Hyslop has had a larger profile recently which will help her here, as well as the overall swell of opinion in favour of the nationalists.
Livingston - 2003 result of Bristow Muldoon (Labour) 44% over Peter Brown (SNP) 32%
Angela Constance (SNP candidate) made a very strong showing in the Westminster by-election caused by Robin Cook's passing. A similar showing here would have her win the seat and I expect that this will happen come May.
Midlothian - 2003 result of Rhona Brankin (Labour) 47% over Graham Sutherland (SNP) 24%
A strong challenge from local candidate Colin Beattie for the SNP but Rhona Brankin is expected to win here given the commanding majority she has to her advantage.
Second Vote
The second vote, using the latest ICM polls and regional splits based on 2003 is expected to pan out as follows.
1 - Robin Harper
2 - Margo McDonald
3 - Kenny MacAskill
4 - Gavin Brown
5 - Ian McKee
6 - George Foulkes
7 - Simon Clark
8 - Greens
SNP - 25%
Labour - 23%
Lib Dems - 16%
Tories - 15%
Greens - 11%
Margo - 10%
SSP - 2%
Tactical Voting
Quite a bit going on here then...
Vote David McLetchie of the Tories in Edinburgh Pentlands
Vote Mike Pringle of the Lib Dems in Edinburgh South
Consider voting for Margaret Smith of the Lib Dems in Edinburgh West though SNP support shouldn't be required for her to win unlike her counterpart Mike Pringle.
Note also that were a second Green MSP (Mark Ballard) to get in in Lothian, it would be at the expense of an SNP MSP.
First Vote
Edinburgh Central - 2003 result of Sarah Boyack (Labour) 32% over Andy Myles (Lib Dems) 23% and Kevin Pringle (SNP) 18%
I expect Sarah Boyack to win the seat but her vote share has gone from 14,224 in 1999 to 9,066 in 2003. However, SNP and Lib Dem seem to be battling for second place here with each taking votes from the other. There's no reason why SNP should tactically vote as they have a strong challenger in Shirley Anne Somerville who I believe has been helping to campaign for a long while now. The Lib Dems on the other hand had a late entrant to the race of Siobhan Mathers, who I also think is a strong challenger. This could be an extremely tight 3-way race if the Labour vote here has slipped more than I appreciate. Also, just to say, I personally think that Shirley Anne's spiel on why Scotland should be independent is as persuading as anything else I have read on the matter.
Edinburgh East and Musselburgh - 2003 result of Susan Deacon (Labour) 44% over Kenny MacAskill (SNP) 22%
A difficult one to call here as Kenny MacAskill's stock has risen over the past 4 years and the popular Susan Deacon is not standing here. Labour candidate Norman Murray stands in Susan's place and is somewhat embroiled in the councillor fat cat pay-off issue but despite this, the large majority of 22% is a solid base to build on.
I will still give this seat to Labour but I do hope, and a large part of me thinks, that Kenny has more than a decent shout of winning.
Edinburgh North & Leith - 2003 result of Malcolm Chisholm (Labour) 38% over Anne Dana (SNP) 19%
SNP have a strong challenge in Davie Hutchison, who regularly updates his interesting blog. Unfortunately for Davie, I see Malcolm as being too established and too popular in this constituency to be unseated.
Edinburgh Pentlands - 2003 result of David McLetchie (Tory) 37% over Iain Gray (Labour) 31%
A fairly safe seat for David McLetchie. Labour may well be the only real challengers here so a tactical vote for David would help to guarantee that Labour are frozen out.
Edinburgh South - 2003 result of Mike Pringle (Lib Dems) 32.1% over Angus MacKay (Labour) 31.6%
A wafer-thin victory for the Lib Dems in 2003 and with Donald Anderson standing in 2007, another very close race is expected here. With SNP finishing 4th the last time around this pretty much frees up voters to tactically back Mike Pringle to keep this seat a Lib Dem hold rather than a Labour gain.
Although tight, I expect Mike Pringle to hold on for a win here.
Edinburgh West - 2003 result of Margaret Smith (Lib Dems) 43% over Lord Selkirk (Conservatives) 26%
A rare safe seat for the Lib Dems in the central belt. No surprises are expected here and a tactical vote for Margaret Smith is worth considering though given the unlikelihood of Labour challenging, a vote for the SNP challenger of Sheena Clelland does not carry much risk of letting Labour in by the back door.
Linlithgow - 2003 result of Mary Mulligan (Labour) 42% over Fiona Hyslop (SNP) 35%
A marginal seat for th SNP here and for that reason alone they should be confident of taking it. I don't know much about Mary Mulligan but Fiona Hyslop has had a larger profile recently which will help her here, as well as the overall swell of opinion in favour of the nationalists.
Livingston - 2003 result of Bristow Muldoon (Labour) 44% over Peter Brown (SNP) 32%
Angela Constance (SNP candidate) made a very strong showing in the Westminster by-election caused by Robin Cook's passing. A similar showing here would have her win the seat and I expect that this will happen come May.
Midlothian - 2003 result of Rhona Brankin (Labour) 47% over Graham Sutherland (SNP) 24%
A strong challenge from local candidate Colin Beattie for the SNP but Rhona Brankin is expected to win here given the commanding majority she has to her advantage.
Second Vote
The second vote, using the latest ICM polls and regional splits based on 2003 is expected to pan out as follows.
1 - Robin Harper
2 - Margo McDonald
3 - Kenny MacAskill
4 - Gavin Brown
5 - Ian McKee
6 - George Foulkes
7 - Simon Clark
8 - Greens
SNP - 25%
Labour - 23%
Lib Dems - 16%
Tories - 15%
Greens - 11%
Margo - 10%
SSP - 2%
Tactical Voting
Quite a bit going on here then...
Vote David McLetchie of the Tories in Edinburgh Pentlands
Vote Mike Pringle of the Lib Dems in Edinburgh South
Consider voting for Margaret Smith of the Lib Dems in Edinburgh West though SNP support shouldn't be required for her to win unlike her counterpart Mike Pringle.
Note also that were a second Green MSP (Mark Ballard) to get in in Lothian, it would be at the expense of an SNP MSP.
Glasgow Region
Solid Labour territory, precious few opportunities for other parties here of course so it is really in the second vote that the real battle exists.
First Vote
Glasgow Anniesland - 2003 result of Bill Butler (Labour) 46% over Bill Kidd (SNP) 18%
The tale of 3 Bills, Bill Aitken of the Tories making up the trio. This is a solid Labour territory and I don't see any shocks despite Billy the Kidd (I bet he's never heard that one before) closing the gap for SNP.
Glasgow Baillieston - 2003 result of Margaret Curran (Labour) 53% over Lachie MacNeil (19%)
Margaret Curran is expected to win this one fairly easily. Lachie MacNeil runs a blog which is somewhat waning of late, no doubt due to furious campaigning on his part.
Glasgow Cathcart - 2003 result of Lord Watson (Labour) 39% over David Ritchie (SNP) 16%. 2005 result of Charlie Gordon (Labour) 38% over Marie Whitehead (SNP) 22%.
Given this is a Glasgow seat, the majority held by Labour is relatively low. Even still, James Dornan has his work cut out to win here. Pat Lally took 11% of the vote last time and this section could well go back to Labour if Pat isn't standing this time around.
Glasgow Govan - 2003 result of Gordon Jackson (Labour) 37% over Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) 31%
All sorts of things going on here, so I will point you in the direction of J Arthur MacNumpty's thorough and faithful following of the story: See his fifth and presumably final section of the rumbling saga involving 2 jobs Jackson (down to 1 job from May 4th), Anas Sarwar and Labour rivals standing as independents - Part 5
All in all, Nicola must surely clean up here given her effective performances and elevated status over the past 2 or 3 years.
Glasgow Kelvin - 2003 result of Pauline McNeill (Labour) 36% over Sandra White (SNP) 21%
This one could be a close race as the Lib Dems and Socialists had strong showings of 15% and 14% respectively in 2003. If these votes are moved to SNP, not to mention some disillusioned Labour types switching party or sitting this year out, then Sandra White has a strong chance of upsetting the incumbent.
I won't get carried away just yet and will still give this seat to Pauline but as I say, SNP are in with a shout here.
Glasgow Maryhill - 2003 result of Patricia Ferguson (Labour) 49% over Bill Wilson (SNP) 20%
Patricia gets a bit of a tough time for apparently being a bit on the indecisive side. This may affect her vote a little, and the Socialist vote of 16% in 2003 may well move to the SNP somewhat.
Even still, Labour should take this seat rather comfortably.
Glasgow Pollock - 2003 result of Johann Lamont (Labour) 43% over Tommy Sheridan (SSP) 28%
A fairly safe Labour seat. Chris Stephens has little chance of causing an upset here for the SNP and the only plausible chance would be for Tommy Sheridan to somehow gather cross-party support to oust the Labour incumbent.
Although he is fairly sure to be getting elected on the second vote but I would recommend voting for Tommy Sheridan in the first vote in this constituency. This not only reduces Labour MSPs by 1 but also gives SNP a good chance of taking an extra MSP on the second round of voting, given that they are next in line to take a seat as things stand. (That is, if there was an 8th round of voting, SNP would take the seat).
Update! - It transpires that Tommy is only standing in the list vote. So, that screws everything up a bit really. Johann Lamont is the clear favourite but with the SNP conference in Glasgow, the SSP vote arguably going to SNP and Labour probably struggling to get the vote out, well, it's certainly well worth casting that ballot if you are based in Pollock.
Glasgow Rutherglen - 2003 result of Janis Hughes (Labour) 46% over Robert Brown (Lib Dems) 19% and Anne McLaughlin (SNP) 14%
A safe Labour seat and new candidate James Kelly is expected to win here for Labour. Margaret Park to challenge for the SNP and I would think finish an easy 2nd over Lib Dems.
Glasgow Shettleston - 2003 result of Frank McAveety (Labour) 57% over Jim Byrne (SNP) 18%
An easy win for Frank McAveety is expected here.
Glasgow Springburn - 2003 result of Paul Martin (Labour) 59% over Frank Rankin (SNP) 16%
An easy win for Paul Martin, son of the Westminster Speaker Michael Martin. Note that Springburn is represented by father and son in Westminster and Holyrood respectively.
Second Vote
With so many Labour first past the post wins, the 2nd vote is due to be split between the remaining parties, with SNP placed to do very well. Note that it is not easy to judge how the SSP vote will be split given the introduction of SOlidarity to the political scene. Not to mention the fact that the fairly childish antics of the socialist group as a whole could well hurt them come May 3rd.
Regional voting in Glasgow as shown below, would yield the following list MSPs:
1. Bashir Ahmad
2. Lib Dem candidate
3. Tommy Sheridan
4. Sandra White
5. Bill Aitken
6. Bob Doris
7. Patrick Harvie
8. SNP
Labour - 36%
SNP - 26%
Lib Dems - 10.4%
Solidarity - 9.7%
Conservatives - 7%
Greens - 6%
SSP - 5%
Tactical Voting
The SNP are well worth voting for in every constitutency.
In the regional vote, a vote for the Greens may seem attractive for some but in this particular region, a Green MSP would probably be taking a seat away from SNP. Also, the Lib Dems are running very close to getting a 2nd list MSP at the expense of an SNP candidate.
First Vote
Glasgow Anniesland - 2003 result of Bill Butler (Labour) 46% over Bill Kidd (SNP) 18%
The tale of 3 Bills, Bill Aitken of the Tories making up the trio. This is a solid Labour territory and I don't see any shocks despite Billy the Kidd (I bet he's never heard that one before) closing the gap for SNP.
Glasgow Baillieston - 2003 result of Margaret Curran (Labour) 53% over Lachie MacNeil (19%)
Margaret Curran is expected to win this one fairly easily. Lachie MacNeil runs a blog which is somewhat waning of late, no doubt due to furious campaigning on his part.
Glasgow Cathcart - 2003 result of Lord Watson (Labour) 39% over David Ritchie (SNP) 16%. 2005 result of Charlie Gordon (Labour) 38% over Marie Whitehead (SNP) 22%.
Given this is a Glasgow seat, the majority held by Labour is relatively low. Even still, James Dornan has his work cut out to win here. Pat Lally took 11% of the vote last time and this section could well go back to Labour if Pat isn't standing this time around.
Glasgow Govan - 2003 result of Gordon Jackson (Labour) 37% over Nicola Sturgeon (SNP) 31%
All sorts of things going on here, so I will point you in the direction of J Arthur MacNumpty's thorough and faithful following of the story: See his fifth and presumably final section of the rumbling saga involving 2 jobs Jackson (down to 1 job from May 4th), Anas Sarwar and Labour rivals standing as independents - Part 5
All in all, Nicola must surely clean up here given her effective performances and elevated status over the past 2 or 3 years.
Glasgow Kelvin - 2003 result of Pauline McNeill (Labour) 36% over Sandra White (SNP) 21%
This one could be a close race as the Lib Dems and Socialists had strong showings of 15% and 14% respectively in 2003. If these votes are moved to SNP, not to mention some disillusioned Labour types switching party or sitting this year out, then Sandra White has a strong chance of upsetting the incumbent.
I won't get carried away just yet and will still give this seat to Pauline but as I say, SNP are in with a shout here.
Glasgow Maryhill - 2003 result of Patricia Ferguson (Labour) 49% over Bill Wilson (SNP) 20%
Patricia gets a bit of a tough time for apparently being a bit on the indecisive side. This may affect her vote a little, and the Socialist vote of 16% in 2003 may well move to the SNP somewhat.
Even still, Labour should take this seat rather comfortably.
Glasgow Pollock - 2003 result of Johann Lamont (Labour) 43% over Tommy Sheridan (SSP) 28%
A fairly safe Labour seat. Chris Stephens has little chance of causing an upset here for the SNP and the only plausible chance would be for Tommy Sheridan to somehow gather cross-party support to oust the Labour incumbent.
Although he is fairly sure to be getting elected on the second vote but I would recommend voting for Tommy Sheridan in the first vote in this constituency. This not only reduces Labour MSPs by 1 but also gives SNP a good chance of taking an extra MSP on the second round of voting, given that they are next in line to take a seat as things stand. (That is, if there was an 8th round of voting, SNP would take the seat).
Update! - It transpires that Tommy is only standing in the list vote. So, that screws everything up a bit really. Johann Lamont is the clear favourite but with the SNP conference in Glasgow, the SSP vote arguably going to SNP and Labour probably struggling to get the vote out, well, it's certainly well worth casting that ballot if you are based in Pollock.
Glasgow Rutherglen - 2003 result of Janis Hughes (Labour) 46% over Robert Brown (Lib Dems) 19% and Anne McLaughlin (SNP) 14%
A safe Labour seat and new candidate James Kelly is expected to win here for Labour. Margaret Park to challenge for the SNP and I would think finish an easy 2nd over Lib Dems.
Glasgow Shettleston - 2003 result of Frank McAveety (Labour) 57% over Jim Byrne (SNP) 18%
An easy win for Frank McAveety is expected here.
Glasgow Springburn - 2003 result of Paul Martin (Labour) 59% over Frank Rankin (SNP) 16%
An easy win for Paul Martin, son of the Westminster Speaker Michael Martin. Note that Springburn is represented by father and son in Westminster and Holyrood respectively.
Second Vote
With so many Labour first past the post wins, the 2nd vote is due to be split between the remaining parties, with SNP placed to do very well. Note that it is not easy to judge how the SSP vote will be split given the introduction of SOlidarity to the political scene. Not to mention the fact that the fairly childish antics of the socialist group as a whole could well hurt them come May 3rd.
Regional voting in Glasgow as shown below, would yield the following list MSPs:
1. Bashir Ahmad
2. Lib Dem candidate
3. Tommy Sheridan
4. Sandra White
5. Bill Aitken
6. Bob Doris
7. Patrick Harvie
8. SNP
Labour - 36%
SNP - 26%
Lib Dems - 10.4%
Solidarity - 9.7%
Conservatives - 7%
Greens - 6%
SSP - 5%
Tactical Voting
The SNP are well worth voting for in every constitutency.
In the regional vote, a vote for the Greens may seem attractive for some but in this particular region, a Green MSP would probably be taking a seat away from SNP. Also, the Lib Dems are running very close to getting a 2nd list MSP at the expense of an SNP candidate.
Central Region
In 6 weeks time there will be a result, a new set of 129 MSPs to lead us and, so, I thought it about time that this blog got back to basics and tried its best to (1) predict what the make up of these 129 brave souls would be and (2) nudge voters in the direction of the best way to have an SNP administration come May 4th.
So, first up, Central:-
First Vote
Airdrie & Shotts - 2003 Result of Karen Whitefield (Labour) 57% over Gil Paterson (SNP) 21%
Karen Whitefield of Labour is the clear favourite to win here. Sophia Coyle of the SNP should come a comfortable second place.
Coatbridge & Chryston - 2003 result of Elaine Smith (Labour) 56% over James Gribben (SNP) 20%
Julie McAnulty is standing in 2007 and is a switched on, instantly likeable independent candidate who is protesting at the A&E closures across Scotland and specifically Monklands in her constituency. Another particular bugbear of Julie's aside from hospital closures is the extremely expensive PFI approach to building hospitals. (Note that PFI is used to finance plenty of other public areas).
There is a large swing to make up here if Julie has much of a chance of an upset. The only real possibility of Labour being squeezed out in this constituency is if SNP/Lib Dems/Tories etc rally around and vote for Julie. Even with the bump that the SNP are enjoying, I fear it is too much for relative unknown Frances McGlinchey to make up this time around and that is why I am suggesting backing the independent candidate.
Therefore voting for Julie McAnulty in Coatbridge is the sensible approach for those who are aiming to see a change of government.
Julie remains the underdog and therefore I have given this seat as a hold for Elaine Smith.
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth - 2003 result of Cathy Craigie (Labour) 42% over Andrew Wilson (SNP) 39%
I expect Jamie Hepburn to finish off the near-result that Andrew Wilson posted in 2003. Jamie posts on his blog pretty much every day and it is clear to see why his personality should warm the Cumbernauld and Kilsyth constituency.
East Kilbride - 2003 result of Andy Kerr (Labour) 41% over Linda Fabiani (SNP) 25%
Andy, champion of the nurses (pre-election time only) and Labour-leader in waiting is expected to win fairly comfortably here. Linda being so highly placed on the SNP 2nd vote may lead to voting patterns not altering too significantly from 2003.
Falkirk East - 2003 result of Cathy Peattie (Labour) 52% over Keith Brown (SNP) 27%
Annabelle Ewing, amongst the hardest working MPs in Westminster, is expected to take this seat for the SNP despite the large swing required.
Falkirk West - 2003 result of a Denis Canavan landslide (56% to Michael Matheson's 18% and Labour's 17%)
A very tight seat, and one which I had previously thought that Labour would take but the controversial candidature of Dennis Goldie for Labour coupled with the sustained showing of SNP at the top of the polls leads me to think aswell as hope that Michael Matheson will win this one.
Note that Dennis Goldie is a bit hot-headed, has labelled fellow councillors as Nazis and being like Harold Shipman and can also come across as homophobic, hence my labelling his nomination as controversial.
Hamilton North - 2003 result of Michael McMahon (Labour) 53% over Alex Neil (SNP) 20%
A relatively safe Labour seat. An upset is not expected and Michael should probably win this one.
Hamilton South - 2003 result of Tom McCabe (Labour) 47% over John Wilson (SNP) 23%
Christina McKelvie is pushing this seat for the SNP. Famous for being one of the eariler seats to be announced it is by no means as safe a Labour seat as it used to be. Despite this, given the large swing required by Christina and the public profile of Tom McCabe, I have to just give this one to Labour.
Kilmarnock & Loudon - 2003 result of Margaret Jamieson (Labour) 40% over Daniel Coffey (SNP) 36%
Willie Coffey is expected to win this marginal seat for SNP in May. With such a slight swing required and with the SNP riding so high in the polls, only a large scale local issue could save Labour here.
Motherwell & Wishaw - 2003 result of Jack McConnell (Labour) 54% over Lloyd Quinan (SNP) 18%
First Minister Jack McConnell to win fairly easily here over Marion Fellows of the SNP. Victory will no doubt be followed by his retiring as leader of the Labour party. His successor being one of Andy Kerr, Iain Gray or Wendy Alexander.
Second Vote
With regional voting as shown below, the following candidates would be voted into Holyrood in the following rounds of voting:
1 - Margaret Mitchell (Tory)
2 - Lib Dem candidate 1
3 - Alex Neil (SNP)
4 - Linda Fabiani (SNP)
5 - John Swinburne (SCCUP)
6 - John Pentland (Labour)
7 - Christina McKelvie (SNP)
8 - Labour candidate
Labour - 38%
SNP - 34%
Tories - 9%
Lib Dems - 8%
SCCUP - 5%
Greens - 4%
Socialist 2%
Tactical Voting
For first past the post - tactically vote for Julie McAnulty in Coatbridge and Chryston
For the second vote - no tactical voting is required. The SNP hold the 7th seat so they are the first party to lose out if Lib Dems/Tories/Labour/SCCUP get a second seat or if the Greens managed to get one seat.
So, first up, Central:-
First Vote
Airdrie & Shotts - 2003 Result of Karen Whitefield (Labour) 57% over Gil Paterson (SNP) 21%
Karen Whitefield of Labour is the clear favourite to win here. Sophia Coyle of the SNP should come a comfortable second place.
Coatbridge & Chryston - 2003 result of Elaine Smith (Labour) 56% over James Gribben (SNP) 20%
Julie McAnulty is standing in 2007 and is a switched on, instantly likeable independent candidate who is protesting at the A&E closures across Scotland and specifically Monklands in her constituency. Another particular bugbear of Julie's aside from hospital closures is the extremely expensive PFI approach to building hospitals. (Note that PFI is used to finance plenty of other public areas).
There is a large swing to make up here if Julie has much of a chance of an upset. The only real possibility of Labour being squeezed out in this constituency is if SNP/Lib Dems/Tories etc rally around and vote for Julie. Even with the bump that the SNP are enjoying, I fear it is too much for relative unknown Frances McGlinchey to make up this time around and that is why I am suggesting backing the independent candidate.
Therefore voting for Julie McAnulty in Coatbridge is the sensible approach for those who are aiming to see a change of government.
Julie remains the underdog and therefore I have given this seat as a hold for Elaine Smith.
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth - 2003 result of Cathy Craigie (Labour) 42% over Andrew Wilson (SNP) 39%
I expect Jamie Hepburn to finish off the near-result that Andrew Wilson posted in 2003. Jamie posts on his blog pretty much every day and it is clear to see why his personality should warm the Cumbernauld and Kilsyth constituency.
East Kilbride - 2003 result of Andy Kerr (Labour) 41% over Linda Fabiani (SNP) 25%
Andy, champion of the nurses (pre-election time only) and Labour-leader in waiting is expected to win fairly comfortably here. Linda being so highly placed on the SNP 2nd vote may lead to voting patterns not altering too significantly from 2003.
Falkirk East - 2003 result of Cathy Peattie (Labour) 52% over Keith Brown (SNP) 27%
Annabelle Ewing, amongst the hardest working MPs in Westminster, is expected to take this seat for the SNP despite the large swing required.
Falkirk West - 2003 result of a Denis Canavan landslide (56% to Michael Matheson's 18% and Labour's 17%)
A very tight seat, and one which I had previously thought that Labour would take but the controversial candidature of Dennis Goldie for Labour coupled with the sustained showing of SNP at the top of the polls leads me to think aswell as hope that Michael Matheson will win this one.
Note that Dennis Goldie is a bit hot-headed, has labelled fellow councillors as Nazis and being like Harold Shipman and can also come across as homophobic, hence my labelling his nomination as controversial.
Hamilton North - 2003 result of Michael McMahon (Labour) 53% over Alex Neil (SNP) 20%
A relatively safe Labour seat. An upset is not expected and Michael should probably win this one.
Hamilton South - 2003 result of Tom McCabe (Labour) 47% over John Wilson (SNP) 23%
Christina McKelvie is pushing this seat for the SNP. Famous for being one of the eariler seats to be announced it is by no means as safe a Labour seat as it used to be. Despite this, given the large swing required by Christina and the public profile of Tom McCabe, I have to just give this one to Labour.
Kilmarnock & Loudon - 2003 result of Margaret Jamieson (Labour) 40% over Daniel Coffey (SNP) 36%
Willie Coffey is expected to win this marginal seat for SNP in May. With such a slight swing required and with the SNP riding so high in the polls, only a large scale local issue could save Labour here.
Motherwell & Wishaw - 2003 result of Jack McConnell (Labour) 54% over Lloyd Quinan (SNP) 18%
First Minister Jack McConnell to win fairly easily here over Marion Fellows of the SNP. Victory will no doubt be followed by his retiring as leader of the Labour party. His successor being one of Andy Kerr, Iain Gray or Wendy Alexander.
Second Vote
With regional voting as shown below, the following candidates would be voted into Holyrood in the following rounds of voting:
1 - Margaret Mitchell (Tory)
2 - Lib Dem candidate 1
3 - Alex Neil (SNP)
4 - Linda Fabiani (SNP)
5 - John Swinburne (SCCUP)
6 - John Pentland (Labour)
7 - Christina McKelvie (SNP)
8 - Labour candidate
Labour - 38%
SNP - 34%
Tories - 9%
Lib Dems - 8%
SCCUP - 5%
Greens - 4%
Socialist 2%
Tactical Voting
For first past the post - tactically vote for Julie McAnulty in Coatbridge and Chryston
For the second vote - no tactical voting is required. The SNP hold the 7th seat so they are the first party to lose out if Lib Dems/Tories/Labour/SCCUP get a second seat or if the Greens managed to get one seat.
Friday, March 16, 2007
Who are these people?!?
I just watched the Scottish news on ITV, the headline article of course being the "absurd and self indulgent" Sir George Mathewson. Good comment from Brian Taylor questioning the wisdom of Blair attacking the man as opposed to the sentiment of his comments.
Anyway, the point of my post, Blair's comments were delivered with a row of youngsters in the background. Where do these people come from? It's classic New Labour and I just wonder how they manage to convince people to stand there during it all looking (apologies if you're one of them) a little bit gormless and/or too keen to look like you're listening and agreeing.
Of course, having 'avid listeners' behind you can occassionally backfire
Anyway, the point of my post, Blair's comments were delivered with a row of youngsters in the background. Where do these people come from? It's classic New Labour and I just wonder how they manage to convince people to stand there during it all looking (apologies if you're one of them) a little bit gormless and/or too keen to look like you're listening and agreeing.
Of course, having 'avid listeners' behind you can occassionally backfire
Finnish porn
I'm a nice, simple Catholic boy so I have little time for such vices but The Scotsman has just informed me (others may have known for some time) that the Scottish Parliament has unwittingly assisted in directing traffic to some dodgy Scandinavian Adults Only website.
Imagine the shock of your average Mrs MacLaverty trying to log on to check on the latest news from her beloved government only to be subjected to something that would make any MSP blush. Except, perhaps, Tommy Sheridan. (Yes, a low blow but I couldn't resist)
Anyway, we no longer have to worry as the good name of the Scottish Parliament has been pulled from this murky world thanks to one Tommy Butler. Tommy claims to hope that the domain will be used to hold MSPs to account and flush out scandal. Sounds good to me! But Tommy is also a domain name strategy specialist which, from various Google searches, seems to merely involve buying domain names and punting them on for a profit.
The site is a bit of an empty shell at the moment with only the main front page in place. Perhaps to give the impression it was bought for an honest purpose.
So, watch this space. But I think there are better things to do with one's time, not that I'm advocating the indulgence of Finnish porn.
(Perish the thought how big a problem this would have been if it had pulled in the phrases Swedish porn, naked celebrities or sex video!)
Imagine the shock of your average Mrs MacLaverty trying to log on to check on the latest news from her beloved government only to be subjected to something that would make any MSP blush. Except, perhaps, Tommy Sheridan. (Yes, a low blow but I couldn't resist)
Anyway, we no longer have to worry as the good name of the Scottish Parliament has been pulled from this murky world thanks to one Tommy Butler. Tommy claims to hope that the domain will be used to hold MSPs to account and flush out scandal. Sounds good to me! But Tommy is also a domain name strategy specialist which, from various Google searches, seems to merely involve buying domain names and punting them on for a profit.
The site is a bit of an empty shell at the moment with only the main front page in place. Perhaps to give the impression it was bought for an honest purpose.
So, watch this space. But I think there are better things to do with one's time, not that I'm advocating the indulgence of Finnish porn.
(Perish the thought how big a problem this would have been if it had pulled in the phrases Swedish porn, naked celebrities or sex video!)
Wednesday, March 14, 2007
Unnatural selection
Survival of the fittest, Darwin's voyage of discovery, evolution, Gregor Mendel and his little pea plants, natural disasters. All theories or events that basically involve separating the wheat from the chaff. That every generation will be stronger and more able than the next. If your neck isn't long enough, you don't eat the leaves; if your claws aren't sharp enough, you won't kill your prey and if your snout isn't long enough, then the trough is out of reach.
But for a while I have wondered if such theories have fallen by the wayside. If human nature is spiralling, not so much out of control but back into the safety of its own fur. The most able and the most attractive are seemingly shunning marriages and dirty nappies in favour of a global, single life whereas the insecure, the less intelligent and the co-dependent types (not to mention those who don't know how or are too drunk to wear a condom) are the ones more likely to propagate the planet with similarly less able babies who will take this world into the next century.
The model of perfection of course should be the Royal Family. The leaders of the land, a valiant , wise King alongside a beautiful, cultured Queen. The family that (in theory at least) we should all look up to and aspire to be like. They should be the most able and the most attractive. OK, so things fell by the wayside, I'm guessing around Henry VIII's time but, without being mean to Prince Charles, things are back on track after Princess Diana provided her genes to a rather limited pool.
Anyway, a stifling of progress? Limited gene pools? The insecure leading the way? The next generations struggling to be more able than the last? Yes, I am gunning for a tenuous link to Holyrood.
OK, I do think the Scottish Parliament does a good job but I do also think there is a stale aroma around the unnatural selection of candidates at election time. The local parties don't seem brave enough to put the rising stars in place of the tired MSPs who may have run their course. A fear of change perhaps, from the local parties right through to the voting public, is stifling Scottish progress.
The weak cling to the weak in the name of self-preservation. So much back-scratching ensues within political parties that it's probably a good thing the unevolved claws are not as sharp as they could be. Though one could argue that the trough-laden snouts are plenty long.
I know I am biased but I do think, if anyone, it's the SNP who are leading the charge in giving the next generation a chance to shine. Every other seat seems to pit a wet-behind-the-ears SNP challenger against a rather staid Labour incumbent with arguably little new to offer. The political DNA has remained depressingly constant for too long for many constituencies out there.
So without the governing duo putting up their own fresh DNA, one can only hope that the disillusioned public, starved of variation, turn to other parties or to the independents to get the progress they deserve.
Monday, March 12, 2007
Just another manic Mundell...
There is seemingly nothing that a political party's fan enjoys more than his or her "team" riding high in the polls than an opposition party falling apart at the seams.
The Tory party have had a rather spectacular fallout this week with David Mundell criticising the lack of thinkers in the Tory party and even having his own "scorecard" for each MSP. I am sure most people are more than aware of this already so I won't rehash an old story.
This may well lead to some Conservative voters looking elsewhere with Lib Dems and SNP being the possible winners which, as someone who wants the SNP to win in May, is a good thing but even still, I can't help but think that the woeful state of the Scottish Conservatives is a shame for the country.
The political spectrum needs to be strong on each side without moving to the extremes for a country to be successful. Scotland is rather odd in that they have 3 fairly left-wing parties and only 1 supposedly right-wing party. A newcomer to the scene would understandably think that SNP, Lib Dems and Labour would pull votes from each other and the Tories would clean up. I personally quite like the idea of a strong, steadfast Tory party with Goldie and Co marching into the argument mid-debate, gathering up the toys that have been thrown around the chamber out of the left-wing prams and giving a sober analysis of costs and rammifications of the numerous policies and approaches that are not good value for money.
If the Tories could give the impression that they would have the firmest grip on the Holyrood purse strings then they could go a long way. Holyrood building, trams, trident, Scottish Enterprise, councillor compensation, a flabby Executive and numerous multi-million projects that have fizzled out are all areas where the Tories could really score some points.
It is a shame for us all that they just can't simply sit down as a group, get their act together and come out fighting. Or maybe they are really up the creek if I, an SNP fan, am feeling sorry for them!
Incidentally, congratulations to Alan Simpson whose blog I am sure the Scotland on Sunday used as inspiration for this little piece.
The Tory party have had a rather spectacular fallout this week with David Mundell criticising the lack of thinkers in the Tory party and even having his own "scorecard" for each MSP. I am sure most people are more than aware of this already so I won't rehash an old story.
This may well lead to some Conservative voters looking elsewhere with Lib Dems and SNP being the possible winners which, as someone who wants the SNP to win in May, is a good thing but even still, I can't help but think that the woeful state of the Scottish Conservatives is a shame for the country.
The political spectrum needs to be strong on each side without moving to the extremes for a country to be successful. Scotland is rather odd in that they have 3 fairly left-wing parties and only 1 supposedly right-wing party. A newcomer to the scene would understandably think that SNP, Lib Dems and Labour would pull votes from each other and the Tories would clean up. I personally quite like the idea of a strong, steadfast Tory party with Goldie and Co marching into the argument mid-debate, gathering up the toys that have been thrown around the chamber out of the left-wing prams and giving a sober analysis of costs and rammifications of the numerous policies and approaches that are not good value for money.
If the Tories could give the impression that they would have the firmest grip on the Holyrood purse strings then they could go a long way. Holyrood building, trams, trident, Scottish Enterprise, councillor compensation, a flabby Executive and numerous multi-million projects that have fizzled out are all areas where the Tories could really score some points.
It is a shame for us all that they just can't simply sit down as a group, get their act together and come out fighting. Or maybe they are really up the creek if I, an SNP fan, am feeling sorry for them!
Incidentally, congratulations to Alan Simpson whose blog I am sure the Scotland on Sunday used as inspiration for this little piece.
Thursday, March 8, 2007
We'll be back after this short delay....
As the tumbleweed blows around on here with reckless abandon, I just thought I'd pop on to say the site is not dying a slow and painful death but rather I am finishing up in Australia and heading home to a land more drizzly but with better accents (no offence Rolf)
So when I'm not dashing around like a blue-arsed fly, I will be back with my amateur thoughts and assistance in the SNP revolution....
So when I'm not dashing around like a blue-arsed fly, I will be back with my amateur thoughts and assistance in the SNP revolution....
Monday, March 5, 2007
A clear and candid poll.....
I wasn't entirely happy with my guess-timation on the second vote for my predictions and finally, on the train back to Sydney today (somewhere around Woy Woy) I had a brainwave.
Now, much like those shampoo adverts, here comes the science:
The polling information available via ICM etc only gives the national picture for how SNP, Labour etc are doing. The recent poll from ICM gave the following results in the regional vote
SNP 0.32
Labour 0.28
Lib Dems 0.17
Tory 0.15
Greens 0.06
Socialist 0.02
These overall figures do not show the split by region which is all important for Holyrood elections as there will be a higher proportion of Labour votes in Glasgow compared to Highlands and Islands. Similarly, there will be a higher proportion of SNP votes in the North East compared to the South. Etc, etc, etc...
So, with this in mind, I took the 2003 figures and used these to ascertain the split by region for each party's total vote. Using the same national turnout rate for 2007, it was then possible to turn the ICM polling data into total number of votes and then spread these votes across the country using 2003 trends. No guess-timation on my part and therefore no bias or unnecessary caution.
So using the First Past the Post results that I documented here, a fairly reliable set of regional results can be predicted.
This now gives -
Overall Seats
Labour 43
SNP 42
Tory 16
Lib Dem 20
Greens 4
SSP/Solidarity 1 (Tommy Sheridan)
Margo McDonald
Jean Turner
John Swinburne
First past the post
Labour 38
SNP 21
Lib Dem 10
Tory 3
Jean Turner 1
Regional Vote
Labour 5
SNP 21
Lib Dem 10
Tory 13
Greens 4
SSP 0
Solidarity 1
Margo 1
John Swinburne 1
You may not agree with some of the first past the post results, but I like to think that this is the most clear and reliable set of predicted numbers for this May that exist at the current time. I never understood how some national polls were able to convert their figures into seats without taking into consideration individual seats and indivudual regions. At least here you can walk through my correct or incorrect thought process.
Even if my Labour-dominated FPTP results don't reflect the fact that SNP are ahead in the national polls at the moment.
Now, much like those shampoo adverts, here comes the science:
The polling information available via ICM etc only gives the national picture for how SNP, Labour etc are doing. The recent poll from ICM gave the following results in the regional vote
SNP 0.32
Labour 0.28
Lib Dems 0.17
Tory 0.15
Greens 0.06
Socialist 0.02
These overall figures do not show the split by region which is all important for Holyrood elections as there will be a higher proportion of Labour votes in Glasgow compared to Highlands and Islands. Similarly, there will be a higher proportion of SNP votes in the North East compared to the South. Etc, etc, etc...
So, with this in mind, I took the 2003 figures and used these to ascertain the split by region for each party's total vote. Using the same national turnout rate for 2007, it was then possible to turn the ICM polling data into total number of votes and then spread these votes across the country using 2003 trends. No guess-timation on my part and therefore no bias or unnecessary caution.
So using the First Past the Post results that I documented here, a fairly reliable set of regional results can be predicted.
This now gives -
Overall Seats
Labour 43
SNP 42
Tory 16
Lib Dem 20
Greens 4
SSP/Solidarity 1 (Tommy Sheridan)
Margo McDonald
Jean Turner
John Swinburne
First past the post
Labour 38
SNP 21
Lib Dem 10
Tory 3
Jean Turner 1
Regional Vote
Labour 5
SNP 21
Lib Dem 10
Tory 13
Greens 4
SSP 0
Solidarity 1
Margo 1
John Swinburne 1
You may not agree with some of the first past the post results, but I like to think that this is the most clear and reliable set of predicted numbers for this May that exist at the current time. I never understood how some national polls were able to convert their figures into seats without taking into consideration individual seats and indivudual regions. At least here you can walk through my correct or incorrect thought process.
Even if my Labour-dominated FPTP results don't reflect the fact that SNP are ahead in the national polls at the moment.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
