Skye No More

There are some things in life that you can always be sure of, night follows day, pizza tastes good, brussel sprouts taste bad, the unwelcome squawking sound of seagulls at 6am on a summer's Saturday morning down at The Shore and the Isle of Skye will always be there for a weekend getaway.

Well, not so.

Sadly I'm not talking about the seagulls but rather the Isle of Skye will soon be a thing of the past. It will be known as Eilean a'Cheo. Isn't that lovely? Assuming you can say it without spitting of course.

It means misty Isle and can conjure up all sorts of romantic and heart-warming notions. Unfortunately, it's also a very difficult name to remember due to one too many syllables. I can't count the number of times I've checked where Kyle of Lochalsh is on the map only to forget again within hours. Though that might have more to do with the size of my amnesia rather than the size of the island's name. Is it an island? You see, I have no clue...

But then Oban, Arran, Mull, these are places that are easy peasy to place on a map and I say it's all down to the length of the name.

Even when people call me by my full name of Jeffrey Trevor Lucifer Cynthia Asterix Breslin, I forget that they are actually referring to myself. I prefer the simple 4 letter option of Jeff. (By the way, I used a bit of poetic license there, as if parents would be so cruel as to give their eldest son a middle name of Trevor!)


So as much as a name's a name for a' that, I'd still vote for keeping the name Skye over Aileen Achoo or whatever it is the new name is. But then, apparently Scotland used to be called Caledonia and we soon got over that one so it's no great shakes in the long run really.
As long as I can still eat pizzas and don't have to eat Brussel Sprouts then I'm pretty happy either way.

Superpoll => Superpredictor

A quite amazing Sunday, we have a YouGov superpoll to start with. The largest poll yet, from the most reliable pollsters (going by the 2003 figures) and consequently, probably the most accurate polling data you will find before May 3rd.

Also, incredibly, the Scotland on Sunday and the Sunday Herald are backing the SNP. They could have taken a non-committal approach but they decided that the SNP is the party worth voting for.
But back to this poll, the papers have predicted what the polling figures means in terms of seats. This will be fairly accurate but it ignores the various regions in the second list, the complicated d'Hondt formula and local issues in local constituencies.

So, I have decided to have one last prediction of what will happen on Thursday, from the FPTP results right down to each of the 8 regions.

This uses the FPTP polling data to assess (guesstimate) what will happen in the first vote as well as pulling together local knowledge from various sources. These results are shown at the bottom of the post (since 73 lines of data is far from aesthetically pleasing!).

YouGov Superpoll, FPTP score

SNP - 38
Labour - 30
Lib Dems - 15
Conservative - 12
Other - 4

Notable judgement calls in the FPTP race are:


Derek Brownlee (Tory) to take Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale

Jamie Hepburn (SNP) to take Cumbernauld and Kilsyth

Michael Matheson (SNP) to take Falkirk West

Nicola Sturgeon and Sandra White to win 2 seats in deepest, darkest Glasgow

Shirley Anne Sommerville (SNP) to win the tight seat of Edinburgh Central

Mike Pringle and George Lyon to hold their Lib Dem seats, but no Lib Dem gains anywhere in Scotland.

Kenny MacAskill, Fiona Hyslop and Angela Constance to make gains in Edinburgh for the SNP

Len Woods and Tricia Marwick to make gains in Fife

Lewis MacDonald to lose out to Karen Shirron in Aberdeen Central

Jackson Carlaw and Murray Tosh to make gains for the Tories in the West and South respectively

Iain Gray to return to Parliament by squeezing out a win in East Lothian

Jean Turner to be returned as the only FPTP independent


These results and the other 1st vote figures will then contribute to how the share of the 56 regional seats are distributed. With these predictions now fixed, and using the YouGov polling info released today, we have the following results in each constituency:

YouGov Superpoll, regional score

SNP - 32
Labour - 27
Conservative - 14
Lib Dem - 12
Greens - 6
SSP - 2
Solidarity - 3
Other - 4


Result - Lothian

1 Green
2 Margo McDonald
3 Tory
4 Labour
5 Labour
6 Tory
7 Green

8 SNP


Result - Glasgow

1 Tommy Sheridan
2 SNP
3 Lib Dems
4 SSP
5 Tory
6 SNP
7 Green

8 SNP


Result - Central

1 Tory
2 SNP
3 Lib Dems
4 SNP
5 SCCUP
6 Labour
7 SNP

8 Labour


Result - Highlands and Islands

1 Labour
2 Tory
3 Labour
4 SNP
5 Tory
6 Green
7 SNP

8 Labour


Result - Mid Scotland and Fife

1 Tory
2 Tory
3 Lib Dems
4 Greens
5 SNP
6 Labour
7 Tory

8 SNP


Result - North East

1 Labour
2 Tory
3 Labour
4 Tory
5 Lib Dems
6 Labour
7 SNP

8 Tory


Result - South

1 SNP
2 SNP
3 Labour
4 SNP
5 Labour
6 Tory
7 Lib Dems

8 Green


Result - West

1 Lib Dems
2 SNP
3 SNP
4 Lib Dems
5 Tory
6 SNP
7 Greens

8 SNP




So in total, the make-up and break-down of the Holyrood parliament for 2007-2011 would be as follows:

SNP	44
Labour	38
Lib Dems	18
Tories	18
Greens	6
SSP	1
Solidarity	1
Margo	1
Jean Turner	1
SSCUP	1
Total	129

A bad night for the SSP and Labour. Not a great showing for the Greens either really and Nicol Stephen might have hoped to have done better. A good showing by the Tories, surprisingly above the Lib Dems on the second vote. And a fine night for the SNP of course, able to power share with the Lib Dems and maybe the Greens.




ALL FPTP results

	Winner (expected)
Constituency
Airdrie & Shotts	Karen Whitefield
Coatbridge & Chryston	Elaine Smith
Cumbernauld & Kilsyth	Jamie Hepburn
East Kilbride	Andy Kerr
Falkirk East	Annabelle Ewing
Falkirk West	Michael Matheson
Hamilton North & Bellshill	Michael McMahon
Hamilton South	Tom McCabe
Kilmarnock & Loudoun	Willie Coffey
Motherwell & Wishaw	Jack McConnell
Glasgow Anniesland	Bill Butler
Glasgow Baillieston	Margaret Curran
Glasgow Cathcart	Charlie Gordon
Glasgow Govan	Nicola Sturgeon
Glasgow Kelvin	Sandra White
Glasgow Maryhill	Patricia Ferguson
Glasgow Pollok	Johann Lamont
Glasgow Rutherglen	James Kelly
Glasgow Shettleston	Frank McAveety
Glasgow Springburn	Paul Martin
Argyll & Bute	George Lyon
Caithness Sutherland & Easter Ross	Jamie Stone
Inverness East Nairn & Lochaber	Fergus Ewing
Moray	Richard Lochhead
Orkney	Liam McArthur
Ross Skye & Inverness West	John Farquar Munro
Shetland	Tavish Scott
Western Isles	Dr Alasdair Allan
Edinburgh Central	Shirley-Anne Somerville
Edinburgh East & Musselburgh	Kenny Macaskill
Edinburgh North & Leith	Malcolm Chisholm
Edinburgh Pentlands	David McLetchie
Edinburgh South	Mike Pringle
Edinburgh West	Margaret Smith
Linlithgow	Fiona Hyslop
Livingston	Angela Constance
Midlothian	Rhona Brankin
Central Fife	Tricia Marwick
Dunfermline East	Helen Eadie
Dunfermline West	Len Woods
Kirkcaldy	Marilyn Livingston
North East Fife	Iain Smith
North Tayside	John Swinney
Ochil	Keith Brown
Perth	Roseanna Cunningham
Stirling	Sylvia Jackson
Aberdeen Central	Karen Shirron
Aberdeen North	Brian Adam
Aberdeen South	Nicol Stephen
Angus	Andrew Welsh
Banff & Buchan	Stewart Stevenson
Dundee East	Shona Robison
Dundee West	Joe Fitzpatrick
Gordon	Alex Salmond
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine	Mike Rumbles
Ayr	John Scott
Carrick Cummnock & Doon Valley	Cathy Jamieson
Clydesdale	Aileen Campbell
Cunninghame South	Irene Oldfather
Dumfries	Murray Tosh
East Lothian	Iain Gray
Galloway & Upper Nithsdale	Alasdair Morgan
Roxburgh & Berwickshire	Euan Robson
Tweeddale Ettrick & Lauderdale	Derek Brownlee
Clydebank & Milngavie	Des McNulty
Cunninghame North	Kenneth Gibson
Dumbarton	Jackie Baillie
Eastwood	Jackson Carlaw
Greenock & Inverclyde	Duncan McNeil
Paisley North	Wendy Alexander
Paisley South	Fiona McLeaod
Strathkelvin & Bearsden	Jean Turner
West Renfrewshire	Bill Wilson

One vote down

I'm just back from babysitting for a friend, a night that involved a lot of football, playing on a child's skateboard, breaking that skateboard, trying to keep the neighbourhood bully out of the back garden and not knowing what to do when a youngster says he was having an asthma attack. It transpired to be a porky to stay up later than usual but the bottom line is, kids are hard work and I wouldn't recommend them to anyone!

But when my friend returned, chat turned to Politics (inevitably). She is educated and pretty switched on with most things but my friend is voting Labour as she believes an SNP win would mean independence. I can tell she is tempted to swing round to another party, probably the SNP but it seems the message isn't getting through that SNP doesn't necessarily mean independence and not only that, but large swathes of her mates think the same way and are voting Labour.

Note that these are people who would have been undecideds this time last week and sad to say but it's in a Labour marginal of Cumbernauld and Kilsyth, so maybe Jamie Hepburn has a little bit more work to do than was originally thought.

Another issue was the Working Families Tax Credit, it is vital to my friend's life at the moment and when she asked what the SNP's stance on this was, I had to admit I didn't know.

So replicate these thoughts across all of Scotland and those undecideds might be landing in the Labour Camps after all!


(Note: I did sell the idea of her student loans being written off and you know what, it might have just done the trick!)

Trouble afoot

So the main Scottish story of the weekend before Thursday's election is so far a bunch of Scotland's more prominent scientists who would rather stay in the union. Fair play to them, I've not even checked their reasons but these stories regarding footballers, businessmen and scientists preferring the UK over an independent Scotland are really getting very tired. I'm sure if this was a referendum on the issue they would be cutting deep but unless they're supporting Labour for reasons x, y or z then it's all water off a duck's back really.

The SNP have shaped their campaign in such a way that these hopeful bodyblows from Labour are missing the target by the proverbial country mile. Parking the independence question for 3 years, making council tax the big issue and having a significant number of businessmen back them, several of extremely high stature, has ensured that it is a devolved Scotland that they have in their sights. For now anyway...

A lot of people question whether a referendum will even happen in the next 4 years and a large swathe of voters, particularly the delightfully titled 'floating voter', will be voting SNP without wishing for independence. Labour will have to dramatically and quickly change tack if they want to push these landing voters back into the sky, and have them settle into the Labour camps (sounds scary doesn't it!).


Maybe I've not been paying enough attention (no laughing at the back) but I've not really heard of a single eye-catching policy from Labour that they plan to implement in the next 4 years. Tinkering with council tax bands and a plea to make education a top priority, it's not quite enough somehow.

But the trouble that is brewing is from the chief union tub-thumper, soon-to-be Prime Minister, psychologically-flawed Gordon Brown. He has treated the Nationalists with barely-disguised disdain, even bordering on good old-fashioned hatred at times. One can only hope that this is electoral posturing and once the ballots have been counted that (assuming an SNP victory of course) he and First Minister Alex Salmond can rub shoulders like the Scottish brothers that they are.

With Alex's cheeky grin, focussed vision for Scotland and irreverent outlook, Gordon's well publicised control freakery and his probable embarrassment of losing an election in his own "backyard" to a party he detests, well, where could the next 4 years possibly go wrong...

Another increase in another poll

A very interesting poll here from YouGov as sponsored (is that the right word?) by The Telegraph.

I have entered the recent Scotland Voice "Poll of Polls" in brackets to see movements from before but given that You Gov was the closest poll to the final result in 2003, then maybe it should be their results that should be given due consideration, rather than an average including MRUK etc

Constituency
SNP – 39 (35)
Labour –30 (31)
LibDem –15 (16)
Cons –13 (13)
Other –3
Regional List
SNP – 31 (33)
Labour –27 (28)
LibDem –11 (15)
Cons –13 (12)
Greens -9 (5)
Other –9

Sadly I don't have my Excel spreadsheet here at work so I can't transform these results into probable Holyrood seats but by the looks of things Argyll & Bute, East Kilbride and maybe even Glasgow Kelvin are very much coming into play for the SNP. Perhaps a few more Central and Fife seats possibly too....

The Greens are doing very well here too. They are pushing for their coveted 10 seats with that 9%, including a potential 3 in Lothians alone if there is a split of Labour/Lib Dem/Tory/SNP seats, which I expect there will be.


Whichever way you look at it, it is a storming result for the SNP with only 6 days to go. Only a massive gaffe or some sort of meteorite hitting Bonnybridge could stop them now.

PS It's been rumoured there is another poll out tomorrow with an even bigger lead for the SNP.

Scotland Votes

And there was I thinking I was the only reliable source for translating polling data into seats but Scotland Votes has done a very good job taking a poll of polls. that is, 5 polls over a similar period have been merged together to create a super poll/uber poll/wonder poll (call it what you like)

This reduces the sampling risk by increasing the sample size so the margin of error reduces, albeit by a fairly small degree. The only downside is, there is no indication what polls were merged. So you could have a few reliable polls and then lump them in with a poll that has no statistical basis to it or is politicall biased. In which case, you would have been better off with the originial polls from the reputable companies.

But what has impressed me most of all was there analysis of the seats that would be lost. Hugh Henry, Trish Godman, Allan Wilson and Andy Kerr. Not easy ones to call and you look a bit silly if you predict these people losing their seats only to be proved wrong come the day.

I didn't quite have the nerve to predict Andy Kerr not getting back in, I just think East Kilbride will have too many 'loyal' Labour supporters and Andy's high profile is bound to help also, despite a very strong challenge of Linda del Fabiani.

Though with the Socialists not standing and their 3000 votes up for grabs in a seat with a majority of just over 4000, it is certainly too close to call with any real confidence. A scalp of Andy Kerr would be huge indeed. It might even lead to the second Labour coronation of the year - Wendy for leader..... (Note of course that Wendy is a good chum of Gordon's by most accounts)


The website also points out the very real possibility of Labour and Lib Dems forming an administration despite the SNP being the largest party. The numbers are very much pointing that way and with the regional vopte redressing soe of the balance, the scales are very much tipped to some hard bargaining being required rather than a clear winner on May 3rd.

Fiesta de Holyrood

Since there are no polls to work with or chew over and (for now) there are no big issues of the day, I thought I'd ask how any readers are going to go about watching The Greatest Show on Earth (that's the Scottish Elecion coverage in case you hadn't guessed).

I remember hearing that electronic counting systems would make the results immediate and all drama of hearing those exciting words, as Kirsty Wark puts her hand to her ear saying "I think... yes, we can now go to Cunninghame North". Perish the thought, that's the whole point of elections for me anyway.

The start of the night is always a bit interesting. Lib Dems happen to win the first 2 seats and for half an hour a yellow whitewash (a yellowwash?) could be on the cards. A bit like when Motherwell scrape through their first few games of the season and find themselves pinching themselves at the top of the SPL.

An ex-Tory on the pundit bench has to squirm as he or she has to defend the fact that it’s 2am and the party hasn’t won a single seat yet. Meanwhile the person on the bench who isn’t wedded to any party slowly gets drunker and drunker, redder and redder and best of all, more funny and offensive as the night goes on. Much like Terry Wogan on Eurovision night.

And then there’s the first marginal. Infact, in 2007 most seats will be marginal including the very first one to be called, Hamilton South. Other results that may have you calling your flatmate/partner/granny in to see the action are: Glasgow Govan, TEL, Argyll & Bute, Edinburgh Central and of course Gordon, not to mention about 40 more!


So yes, thankfully I have family and friends as geekily into this stuff as I am so it'll be a full night, a bit of haggis and whisky sauce and irn-bru aflowing as the tension builds. At around 11pm I think it’ll be the BBC that gets the nod though a quick vote of which channel has the best pundits will be put forward. It is a democracy after all.

Not sure if my brother will have his tray of coloured m&m’s, populating a fake parliament as the results unfold but it will prove to be quite a night whatever happens. I just wish we lived in a country where people jumped on their motorbikes or leant out of their car windows, waving their national flag, if for no other reason than that it makes a good photo.


Incidentally, even from May4th, I may start planning an enormous carnival in the park beside the parliament for the election night May 2011. Fiesta de Holyrood! Jugglers, people on stilts, old Scottish ales, highland dancing, caber tossing and of course giant screens giving us the thoughts of Brian Taylor and John Curtice throughout the night. Bring the next 4 years in in style….!

But for now, with only 7 sleeps to go, there is excitement enough. I hope your Swingometers are singing come Thursday night, whatever you happen to be doing…

Half the world away

With The Scotsman and The Herald thrashing around in their pro-Labour/pro-union ways, it is no wonder that it takes the Boston Globe of all media outlets to neatly sump up what is going on in the best small country in the world.

"The SNP is sure to gain from the unpopularity of the Iraq war and the fatigue of the Labour Party, but proportional representation makes it nearly impossible to win an outright majority.
"Nonetheless, despite the blandishments from Blair, Scots are contemplating a serious affair with their nationalists in the May election, even though they may not be quite ready for divorce."

And that's about it really. Not much more needs to be said about the current political climate if you wanted to fill in a foreigner.

Happy reading for Alex Salmond then. He was lost, he was found and he most certainly don't feel down. (With apologies to Noel Gallagher for messing with his lyrics. Don't look back in anger my son...)

The real reason for my blog....

Yes, all this politics stuff has been pretty much guff to be honest, all that stupid number crunching just to get the viewing figures up to a suitable level for me to ask this question:

Does anyone in the Edinburgh area fancy joining an 11aside team?


I'm putting a team into an Edinburgh Summer league and the squad is a bit on the thin side. (And frankly, some of my friends are less reliable than others!). So if anyone is keen then feel free to send me an email or leave a comment.


Cheers



PS The standard is somewhere between average and poor

Top blogging!

I just surfed onto this very funny blog. Thought I would pass on the link to anyone who wanders by this way.

The ethics of tactical voting

It was recently suggested by the Lib Dems that if everyone was to vote for the true party of their choice then they would be the largest party in Holyrood. A truly breathtaking claim, but perhaps a clever one as you can’t quantify it. Even, bizarrely, with an open election around the corner.

But I guess that’s life in the 21^st century, a cynical age, where the brain, mouth and hands don’t always work in conjunction with one another. It is a perverse period where a party can win an election and the party that finishes third can not only hold the winning party’s destiny in their hands but can also suggest that their own leader should be First Minister.

So what scene am I setting here. Well, the whole raison d’etre of my blog has been called into question. Not only by a dedicated SNP footsoldier who left an annoyed message that he/she’s working hard on the streets to get a candidate elected and here am I suggesting voting for David McLetchie and Jackson Carlaw etc to aid the SNP push for power, I have also called my own thinking into question.

There are two ways to approach an election really, close your eyes and ears to what’s going on around the country in other constituencies, look deep into yourself, decide what is important to you and then vote for the candidate/party who can best represent you in parliament. It’s a noble approach, a principled approach some would say, but perhaps also a naïve approach some others could suggest.

Take a close family relative of mine, due to vote Lib Dems in a constituency where, without a shadow of a doubt, they will finish fourth. A wasted vote on the one hand, but then again, they will always languish in fourth if they don’t get the support that genuinely exists in that constituency.

And further to this, the concept of tactical voting reminds me of the story of the town who planned to have their local fountain flowing with milk for a local celebration. Each resident agreed to pour a pint of milk into the VAT the day before the celebrations were to take place.

One individual decided they didn’t have time to get to the shops and so poured in a carton of water, safe in the knowledge that the fountain would still flow beautifully white come the next day.

Upon the mayor switching the fountain on, amidst great pomp and ceremony, everyone was disappointed to see that the fountain, as ever, was just flowing water. The settled wish of the town didn’t come through as everyone had put too much faith in the rest of the town to play by the rules.

The parallels with tactical voting are fair to draw. What if so many people tactically vote that we get a result that actually bears no resemblance to what Scotland actually wants? Why is the simple process of democracy in action so difficult to follow for some?

Well, thankfully I have no such quandary between tactically voting or going with my heart. My brain, mouth and hands will be as one come May 3^rd as I get to vote in Edinburgh North and Leith which has Davie Hutchison with a fair chance of winning. I’ve assessed all the candidates and parties and it just so happens that Davie and the SNP best reflect my own hopes for Scotland. I won’t have the dilemma of SNP supporters in Eastwood and Edinburgh South for example.

Despite my recent wobble regarding tactical voting as a whole, at the end of the day we’re not just voting for a local MSP, we all have an equal say in who forms the next administration. Tactically voting to that end does have a certain honour to it, sacrificing your personal views for what you perceive as the good of Scotland.

If you want to see Alex Salmond address the Debating Chamber as First Minister, there’s a fair chance your first vote may have to go to someone other than the SNP to make sure it happens. After all, we’ve got to keep those Lib Dems from being the largest party somehow.

Putting MRUK to bed...

On the back of the recent Populus poll which I translated into Holyrood seats on Friday, aYouGov poll was released over the weekend stating that voting intentions stand at:

Populus: CON 13%, LAB 30%, LDEM 18%, SNP 34%
YouGov: CON 14%, LAB 30%, LDEM 15%, SNP 37%

And in the regional vote:

Populus: CON 14%, LAB 27%, LDEM 18%, SNP 34%, OTHER 7%
YouGov: CON 13%, LAB 28%, LDEM 13%, SNP 35%, OTHER 11%

It makes a mockery of the recent MRUK poll that two highly regarded polling companies conclude with very similar results whereas these jokers had figures seemingly pulled out of the deep blue sky (or should that be rose red sky?).

A bit of a question mark from the two polls above over just how well the Lib Dems are doing, a bit odd to have a 5% difference in the regional vote but I'm just going to split the difference by taking an average of the two.

It's also difficult to judge how the Greens will be doing. A fairly large 11% of 'Other' in the YouGov poll compared to 7% in the Populus poll. That makes a huge difference to the Greens, as many as 7 seats difference as they have a tipping point around 6.3% where they would do really well if they can just nudge themselves over that line.

I do think the Greens are under-represented here so I will swell their numbers slightly in my prediction, giving them 7% and leaving the 2% to the genuine others. In these polls people are faced with SNP, Labour, Lib Dem, Tory or Other. If the Greens were added to the list instead of being lumped in with the Others, then a more accurate picture could be obtained. Also, just to point out, the Greens received 6.9% of the overall regional vote in 2003 and polled at around 6% so a small bump isn't outrageous.


And, also, I have finally allowed my First Past the Post results to reflect the SNP's commanding and consistent lead in the polls.

I am well aware that the SNP can poll higher in the FPTP and then still not win the most constituences. Labour do have a tendency to come 1st or 4th which can lead to misleading interpretations of what the FPTP polls actually mean. But my figures of Labour 31 FPTP seats to SNP's 24 were certainly outdated so I am now calling the following for SNP:

Paisley South - Fiona McLeaod to beat the Education Minister Hugh Henry. Hugh raised his profile over the last few months and I think did a good job on the debating floor. However, SNP need only a 4.91% swing and I think this will be achieved.

Glasgow Kelvin - Sandra White to beat Labour's Pauline McNeil. Sandra's share of the vote in 1999 and 2003 has exactly matched that of the national figure. A share of the vote of 35% in 2007 would be enough to win.

West Renfrewshire - Yes, I am flip-flopping on this one. I initially thought that Annabel Goldie's increased public position would spur her on to victory here. But at the end of the day, it is an SNP marginal and is an area that the party has been focussing on winning. A lot depends on whether Labour voters abandon the Patricia Godman ship and back Annabel but I don't see that happening. Bill Wilson to win.

Edinburgh Central - I am no longer seeing Sarah Boyack winning in Edinburgh Central, I think the tide has turned against her after two terms, more to do with the national picture than anything personal but it is a bell-weather seat and the winds have changed over the past year or so. But then the difficulty is in assessing whether the Lib Dems' Siobhan Mathers or SNP's Shirley-Anne Sommerville will take over. Lib Dems are in second place, but only just, and from the people I have spoken to and the students I know, it is the SNP who are now taking the core chunk of the disaffected Labour votes here. I know a lot of the people involved with the old Royal Infirmary are keen to vote SNP this time around too so I am now backing Shirley-Anne to win Edinburgh Central.

I also considered Davie Hutchison winning Edinburgh North and Leith, Kenny MacAskill to win Edinburgh East, Kenneth Gibson to oust Allan Wilson in Cunninghame North, Christina McKelvie to beat Tom McCabe in Hamilton South amongst others. I felt the swings required were too big in Davie, Christina and Kenny's case and for Kenneth, in his constituency Campbell Martin is standing as an independent and given he has been an MSP for this area before, I see him taking too many votes from Kenneth for the SNP to pull off a win here, despite the relatively small swing required.



So what does all this mean for the result:

Well, compared to the last set of results (which were based solely on the Populus poll), we have:

Overall result:

SNP	45 (-)
Labour	38 (-3)
Lib Dems	19 (-3)
Tories	16 (-)
Greens	7 (+6)
SSP	0 (-)
Solidarity	1 (-)
Margo	1 (-)
Jean Turner	1 (-)
SSCUP	1 (-)
Total	129

The above result just feels right somehow, I've checked through my FPTP results, compared them to prior years, looked at different trends and they fit with the polling data too. So, I'm at the mercy of the YouGovs and System 3s of this world for the regional result but I really think the above won't be too far away at all from the final picture.


Here's a break down of the impact of the FPTP switches for the regions involved:


Lothians (after change in polling figures and Shirley-Anne Sommerville beating Sarah Boyack)

SNP 5 (-)
Labour 4 (-)
Lib Dems 2 (-1)
Tories 2 (-)
Greens 2 (+1)
Margo 1

So, the upshot of a change in Edinburgh Central is that the SNP get one less list MSP and Labour get George Foulkes into the parliament. I'm really not a fan of the man so in a way it's a good thing, turning away further Labour voters for 4 years and not just at election time! The Greens will pick up an extra seat from the Lib Dems if the Lib Dem share of the vote does come in at the 15% suggested in the last few days. Note the Tories are pushing hard for a second list MSP, missing out by a mere 200 votes.



West (after change in polling figures and Bill Wilson beating Patricia Godman and Annabel Goldie, also after Fiona McLeaod replaces Hugh Henry)

SNP 5 (+1)
Labour 5 (-1)
Lib Dems 2 (-1)
Tories 2 (-)
Greens 1 (+1)

This would be ideal for me, I want to see an SNP/Green coalition, topped up by the Lib Dems if need be so this result plays right into it. I just hope I've called the FPTP correctly!


Glasgow (after change in polling figures and Sandra White defeating Pauline McNeill in Glasgow Kelvin)

SNP 5 (-)
Labour 8 (-1)
Lib Dems 1 (-)
Tories 1 (-)
Greens 1 (+1)
Tommy Sheridan (-)

Greens to take a seat off Labour if the Populus/YouGov polls are accurate on average. It will be interesting to see just how strong the Labour seats are here. Murmurs of a complete disintegration in the West could lead to some sort of landslide on May 3rd.

The last Scotsman I'll ever buy

(except on Fridays for the Recruitment pages, and maybe Thursdays for the Homes section...)

But this story is a bit of a shocker.

The headline has:

Outrage as Salmond brands Labour opponents 'anti-Scottish'

which is both misleading and false.

False because they've quoted 'anti-Scottish' as if that was the actual phrase used by Alex.

Not so, instead the SoS have seemingly intentionally mislead the reader with the headline as Alex's point is that Tony Blair, Jack McConnell and Gordon Brown have attacked Scotland to such a degree that their views can't sit squarely with a belief that Scotland is a confident, able country.

Hopefully any reader will be able to see the over-reaction from McConnell: He apparently demanded Salmond apologise to voters who were concerned about the costs of independence and the SNP's policies.

I don't see that forthcoming. Nor necessary.


So to take it from Alex's own words:

"they (Labour) are attacking Scotland and Scottish self-confidence, almost at times verging on to, you know, 'Its not the SNP that's a basket case, it's Scotland that's a basket case."

How true. You would think they would have learned from Tony Blair's poorly judged attack on George Mathewson.

SNP have as much won this election as Labour have lost it with a shockingly poor campaign. But as Alan Hansen would say, a win's a win. And, given the new YouGov poll, I'm just about to check how big that win will be, despite the media bias...

A bit of a low-key story but some Tory MP (David McLean) has apparently tried to end the rights of the public to gain information on our MPs via the Freedom of Information Act.

It begs the question, who is David friends with and how quickly can someone get their (or David's) file?


Maybe David and Eric Joyce are squash buddies or something....

Introducing - Nicol Stephenson

There's an article in The Scotsman about some nice guy from up North. Just skimmed through it. Can't remember if there was anything of note really...

Oh yes, there were some startlingly bland answers to questions from the public at the bottom of it.

Have the Lib Dems not heard of Freecycle!?

There's nothing I like better from a bleary-eyed Sunday morning than to trip over microwaves, broken stereos and other household wares on my way to picking up my Sunday Herald.


Then again, the Lib Dems could swap this policy for just giving some strong vocal and/or financial support to the very popular existing organisation - Freecycle

The latest poll

Right, here we go again.......

The last set of polls (a few weeks ago now) had the following split of votes:

SNP		0.34
Labour		0.27
Lib Dems		0.13
Tory		0.13
Greens		0.08
Socialist		0.02
SCCUP		0.02

This gave a result of:

SNP	43
Labour	41
Lib Dems	18
Tories	14
Greens	9
SSP	0
Solidarity	1
Margo	1
Jean Turner	1
SSCUP	1
Total	129

But tomorrow (yes, I am for once ahead of the news!), The Times will release a Populus poll showing the following voting intentions in the 1st and 2nd vote:

SNP - 34
Labour - 30
Lib Dems - 18
Conservatives - 13
Other - 6

SNP - 34
Labour - 27
Lib Dems - 18
Tories - 14
Other - 7 (Green 3)


Interestingly, The Times reports this as a drop for the SNP when infact they are holding firm at 34% from that fabulous week they had a fortnight or so ago.

The real winners from then up to now are the Lib Dems, seemingly taking votes off the Greens. Strange really as I have heard of a lot of support for the Greens, a party that I am sure are under represented in such polls. Therefore I shall be bumping their score up to 5%, still dangerously below the 6% they need to guarantee a few seats at least.

Most importantly, how does this affect the overall result. Well, with FPTP situation as previously stated in an earlier post, the Times poll above would give the following:

Lothians:

Round 1 - SNP
Round 2 - Margo
Round 3 - Greens
Round 4 - Tories
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - Lib Dems
Round 7 - SNP

Round 8 - Tories (in other words, they just miss out. By 8 votes!)


Glasgow

Round 1 - SNP
Round 2 - Lib Dems
Round 3 - SNP
Round 4 - Tommy Sheridan
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - Tories
Round 7 - SNP

Round 8 - Lib Dems (missing out on Round 7 by 40 votes)


No Greens in sight in the dear green city, seems odd somehow....


Central

Round 1 - Lib Dems
Round 2 - Tory
Round 3 - SNP
Round 4 - SNP
Round 5 - John Swinburne
Round 6 - Labour
Round 7 - SNP

Round 8 - Labour (missing out on Round 7 by around 1,400 votes)


Highlands and Islands

Round 1 - Labour
Round 2 - Tory
Round 3 - Labour
Round 4 - SNP
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - Tory
Round 7 - Labour

Round 8 - SNP (missing out on Round 7 by about 700 votes)


Mid Scotland and Fife

Round 1 - Tory
Round 2 - Lib Dems
Round 3 - Tory
Round 4 - SNP
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - Lib Dems
Round 7 - SNP

Round 8 - Tory


Another freeze-out for the Greens and, so far, they are getting a good old-fashioned pasting in this election. I still think they'll do better than 5% but I can't go against the poll's 3% too much.


North East

Round 1 - Labour
Round 2 - Tory
Round 3 - Lib Dems
Round 4 - Labour
Round 5 - Tory
Round 6 - Lib Dems
Round 7 - Labour

Round 8 - Lib Dems (missing out on Round 7 by about 1100 votes)


South

Round 1 - Lib Dems
Round 2 - SNP
Round 3 - Tory
Round 4 - Labour
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - Labour
Round 7 - Tories

Round 8 - SNP


Well, so much for the second vote allowing some of the smaller parties getting in (unless you count the Tories as a smaller party of course!)
The Conservatives did get an extra seat as a result of the Greens falling out of the running, but they are still a far cry from the 3 regional MSPs that some have suggested recently. Pie in the sky I'm afraid old chaps...


West

Ok, so this is where things are frankly silly as I have the SNP winning no FPTP seats but still commanding the largest portion of the regional votes, 33.6% to Labour's 31.8%. So something isn't quite right in the West, but we've all known that for a while (just joking to any of my Westernly friends reading this!)

Here's the results anyway:

A carve up for the Lib Dems and the SNP really -

Round 1 - SNP
Round 2 - Lib Dems
Round 3 - SNP
Round 4 - Lib Dems
Round 5 - SNP
Round 6 - SNP
Round 7 - Lib Dems

Round 8 - SNP (by a good 2,300 votes)



And there we have it, totalling all the top (or letting my ridiculously complex Excel spreadsheet doing it for me) gives the following final result -

SNP	45 (+2)
Labour	41 (+0)
Lib Dems	22 (+4)
Tories	16 (+2)
Greens	1 (-8)
SSP	0
Solidarity	1
Margo	1
Jean Turner	1
SSCUP	1
Total	129

So still a solid position for the SNP given my highly cautious approach to their First Past the Post position. I still think that side of the polling is a misnomer given the nature of the different regions and specific spots of Scotland. But still, my results may be due a revision soon.

Most tellingly is the precarious position of the greens. A mere 3% is the difference between 9 MSPs and Robin Harper sitting all on his lonesome for 4 years.


And the best news for last, on this score, the Lib Dem and SNP coalition is the only real majority that could be formed. I wouldn't want to wake up in some late-May morning, with the SNP the biggest party but still having a Lib-Lab pact.

4 more years of Jack? It's the stuff of nightmares...

In the red corner..... The Conservatives

The Friends of the Earth organisation decided to give a timely scorecard to each of the main parties.

Greens topped the poll quite easily. SNP, Labour and Lib Dems did pretty well but a really shocking score of 0 out of 10 for the Tories. With a grading of green through amber to red, the Conservatives' green policy is as scarlet as their faces should be after this story came out.

I can imagine this inconvenient truth for Annabel & co will come up time and time again in the hustings between now and May 3rd. And quite rightly too, the general public does need to be dragged kicking and screaming into saving the planet, it's just a harsh truth that we grudgingly accept but largely aren't doing that much about (myself included). So I don't really care what the parties say just now, just so long as whoever wins power gives us a good kicking with regard to recycling, economically unfriendly cars and long-haul flights.

We might not vote for it but we need it, and deep down we know it's the right thing to do...

A no-score draw

I see David Cameron has made some comments in The Scotsman, and is making a visit to Scotland. Well, seemingly he's going as far as Gretna but it still counts.

He seems to focus on Gordon Brown a bit too much given the Scottish elections are only 2 weeks away, maybe that contributed to why I struggled to concentrate while reading the piece.

Still, there were some good lines. Notably:

"I want to be prime minister of the United Kingdom. I don't want to be prime minister of England. It would be easier in some ways [to give up on Scotland]. But I think it's rather a small, narrow politics to try to draw a line around where you have your strongest supporters."

If I were a Welshman or from Northern Ireland I might be getting a bit hacked off at all this "Prime Minister of England" chat. And they struggle to see why Scots feel a bit alienated from the Westminster village?


But more interestingly:

Tacitly, he accepted the Tories were unlikely to gain much ground at Holyrood but insisted Gordon Brown, the Chancellor, would be the real loser. He said: "If you can't win the home fixture, how are you going to get on when you're playing away?"

A fine point indeed, and although I'm not putting all my money on an SNP victory just yet, I really don't think I fully comprehend the rammifications for Gordon Brown if Labour were to lose in a fortnight's time. I sense it would be more than slightly embarrassing though.


So a bad night for both Brown and Cameron with regard to Scotland would probably highlight a bigger problem for the UK as a whole. A pair of electoral lightweights doing battle for Westminster in 2009. It doesn't really set the heart racing does it...

Guest publication

An anonymous post was left on one of my earlier blog items, I thought it was really interesting and I've not actually got my head around whether I disagree with it or not. But either way, it is well worth having top billing for a while:


Hi, the reason my work suggests the Tories will get 24 seats is that the average of April 2003 polls significantly underestimated the final level of Tory support in May 2003 (by 5% on the constituency and 6% on the list).

Not saying that is what will happen, just posing the question what if the polls are out this time by the same amount the were before!

Since my last post I updated the model by including the 16th April poll and removing the one at the end of March. That way I am comparing 100% April 2007 polls with 100% April 2003 polls. This is all total speculation as the current polls are all over the place, with 3 of the last 5 showing clear SNP leads and 2 showing clear Labour leads.

Average of the last 5 polls suggests -
Constituency
SNP - 35%
Lab - 32%
LD - 15%
Con - 13%
List
SNP - 34%
Lab - 30%
LD - 13%
Con - 12%
Grn - 5%

The April 2003 polls by and large had a habit of overestimating SNP and Labour support to a degree and underestimating Conservative and Liberal Democrat support.

If April 2007 polls are as wrong as April 2003 then the parties standing would be
Constituency
SNP 32%
Lab 28%
Con 18%
LD 18%

List
Lab 29%
SNP 26%
Con 18%
LD 11%
Grn 5% and some others

Odd I grant you, though perhaps not impossible if things are really close on the night that 1 party could win the constituency vote and another the regional vote

To me that suggests the following numbers in parliament
Lab 43 (-7)
SNP 38 (+11)
Con 22 (+4)
LD 17 (-)
Grn 5 (-2)
SSP/Sol 2 (-4)
Oth 2 (-2)

In answer to the point where would the extra Tories come from ? -
South, Lothians, Central and West.

Just to stress, Im not saying this will happen, I was just curious as I miss-trust the polls given their erratic nature. That all said (and from what I have as a gut feeling about Scottish politics) I wouldn't be too surprised if the result above happened after all.

This period is a psephologists dream! ; )

Poll dancing

Anyone reading this post is probably astute enough to treat dodgy polls with the disdain that they deserve. For example, MRUK and Scottish Opinion are quite simply not thorough enough in their polling methodology to provide results that are worth any real consideration. Well, this is my assumption as they don't even release their polling methodology. As a Statisticial, I find this pretty amazing really. I also question the motives of these organisations, suspecting the release of their poll findings is much more politically motivated than YouGov and System 3.

Of all the polls I prefer System 3, I think YouGov is slightly biased towards SNP as it reaches out to internet-users only, a younger group than Labour/Tory which is arguably more of a senior demographic.

Anyway, just thought I'd mention that in the light of this recent poll .

I know I'm biased but I simply refuse to believe that this is a fair reflection of Scotland's voting intentions as things stand.

Rome wasn't built in a day...

Interesting news story on the BBC about the SNP's supposed U-Turn on PFI schemes.

For one, it is a bit rich for Labour and the Lib Dems to be gleefully crowing about the SNP back-pedalling on the subject since the PFI schemes were their idea in the first place.

And more to the point, although the issue is presented as black and white in the cold glare of an election campaign, the real solution is more of a hazy shade of grey. To rip up PFI contracts the day that SNP got into power would of course be crazy. Once such a juggernaut of a decision is on the move, it takes a while to reverse it, even if it is as stupid a one as PFI.

So I'm all for the SNP saying they'll see the current PFI projects through, while they hold their noses doing so. A not-for-profit trust (the longer term SNP plan) is a far better financial policy than the short-term PFI approach. Interest payments that had been going to private companies will stay within the public purse, albeit the rate of new schools and new hospitals being built will continue at a slower pace. Personally I think this is a compromise worth making in the long term.

After all, Rome wasn't built in a day, as much as New Labour might have tried to pull it off, whatever the cost.







EDIT: I apologise to any readers who now have the Morcheeba song stuck in their head as I currently have...

Getting back to basics....

It's been a while since I made much mention of tactical voting if one was to want an SNP-led administration rather than a Labour-led administration. Ok, so it's been a while since I made a mention of anything but April is proving to be a hectic month...!

So, to keep this blog ticking over and to maybe concentrate the minds of any wavering voters who have decided above all else that they want a change of government, here's my rundown of seats where a tactical vote would be useful for the SNP.


Edinburgh Pentlands - Should be a safe seat for David McLetchie anyway but with Labour expected to finish 2nd and the SNP somewhat out of the running, then a tactical vote here would be beneficial

Edinburgh South - A very slim majority for Mike Pringle to defend, it could be very important that he gets some non-Lib Dem support to hold off the challenge of Labour's Donald Anderson.

Ayr - John Scott of the COnservatives should win this seat, a challenge from Labour is expected so some tactical voting here would be useful

Dumfries - It pains me to do it as I'm a big fan of Mike Russell but in the interests of beating Labour, a vote for Murray Tosh is recommended as he is better placed to oust Elaine Murray.

Eastwood - A Conservative target seat is being contested by Jackson Carlaw. I don't see an SNP win here so voting for Jackson could cause a big upset for Kenneth MacIntosh of Labour.

Strathkelvin and Bearsden - A no-brainer here, vote for Jean Turner to have one First Past the Post independent in Holyrood. David Whitton provides a strong challenge for Labour and I suspect Jean will need a lot of support from the other parties. Given that she is now an MSP, people may give her candidature the attention it deserved in 2003.

Greenock and Inverclyde - A vote for Ross Finnie here is my suggestion. Duncan MacNeail stands for Labour.


And that's it for First Past the Post. If people have any other suggestions then by all means get in touch. In particular, if I am suggesting a vote for another party when infact the SNP do have a real chance for some reason, then please let me know.


With regard to the regional vote, I am not expecting the SNP to get any regional MSPs in the North East so I really hope that SNP-voters have the foresight to vote for the Greens or Lib Dems or SSP or Tories or whoever. Stacking up their share of the votes will reduce the number of Labour candidates getting in (currently sitting at 3).

There are no regions where the SNP only get 1 MSP through the regional vote so I suspect North East will be the only region where a tactical second vote given to another party is worth it.

Sensitivity Analysis - South

This is the kind of stuff that I love - Labour should want Christine Grahame to win Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale. Make any sense? Let me explain...


South of Scotland is one of the easier regions to call, all except for Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale and I think that seat is between Christine Grahame (SNP) and Derek Brownlee (Tory). Jeremy Purves and Lady Catherine (And others) may disagree with me but that's how I see it.


So, I decided to look at the regional results in both situations and make a comparison. Rather interesting as you shall see:


If Christine Grahame wins, then in the South we have:

Labour 5 seats (3 FPTP and 2 regional)
Tory 3 seats (2 FPTP and 1 regional)
SNP 5 seats (3 FPTP and 2 regional)
Lib Dems 2 seats (1FPTP and 1 regional)
Green 1 seat (a regional, of course)


If Derek Brownlee wins, then we have:

Labour 4 seats (3 FPTP and 1 regional) 1 down, Jalal Chaudry loses out
Tory 4 seats (3 FPTP and 1 regional) 1 up, John Lamont gains
SNP 5 seats (2 FPTP and 3 regional) no change
Lib Dems 2 seats (1FPTP and 1 regional) no change
Green 1 seat (a regional) no change



So the SNP should not worry too much if they don't win this tough seat. Infact, if you want to be really cynical, it is in the SNP's interests to not win here as it would give them one more MSP than Labour in the long run.


Elections, they're a funny business. I'm off to find any more anomalies....

The future's bright, the future's..... Green

Are happy days here for the Green party? It has been suggested that the main parties moving on to environmental issues would be a big blow for the greens, raining on their parade El Nino style. However, this doesn't seem to the case.

The misleadingly titled "Others" within the Holyrood Circle are hitting poll figures of around 12-13%. Given the disintegration of the Socialist vote since last time, the standing down of Denis Canavan and the relative obscurity of the SCCUP, surely it is the Green vote that are making up a sizeable chunk of this Others slice of the voting pie.

An attractive manifesto released this week should help their cause.


Most interesting of all, a national share of the vote of below 6% was supposedly meant to spell disaster for the Greens, getting only 1 MSP, the colourful Robin Harper's whose scarves can only really be rivalled by that of Tom Baker. A mere 2% extra at 8% and the Greens can hope to get 9 MSPs.


The sun does seem to be shining on the Greens at Holyrood...




And yet, who are the losers. Well this makes the FPTP system all the more interesting. If SNP can win a majority of FPTP seats (which I think is unlikely by the way), then it's a double blow for Labour as they have one less seat in each region with which they can make up the loss. Of course, the same can be said of the SNP if they come up just a little bit short.


The Lib Dems may be the perennial kingmakers, but the Greens, and their potential 9 MSPs, will have a pretty strong impact on how the government will look and what colour it will be come May.