Best laid plans

There is an interesting poll sitting on the Sunday Times website showing a clear majority of Scottish readers preferring independence over the status quo.

Kezia, quite correctly, makes a mockery of the suggestion that 88% of the Scottish population wish independence. The poll may not necessarily have been hijacked by these mysterious 'Cyber Nats' referred to in the post but any poll that doesn't stop you from voting more than once and doesn't consider the demographics of a nation is a light-hearted one at best and a scurrilous coup at worst.

Kez's post also goes on to try to make light of a recent TNS poll that showed that 41% of Scots are in favour of independence. The argument goes that if more options were added to the poll then this 41% would decrease. Although I'm not convinced that such polls can be so easily dismissed the logic does make sense.

Unionists, of course, want the poll ratings for independence to be as low as possible and Kez so far has brought the figures down from 88 to 41 and even lower still. Not bad for a lunchtime of blogging! But of course her employers are going a lot further than that. If the option of independence is not even being considered by the constitutional commission, then perhaps they can convince the public to just forget all about it, then the poll ratings would be 0% for all they care.

Is this a two fingers from the Unionists to the 41% who have expressed interest in Scottish independence?

Well, perhaps not. And I am in the unsettling position of not only seeing what the unionists are doing but almost (almost!) agreeing with them.

A straight yes or no question on independence is what the SNP are dreaming about but there is not a snowball's chance in hell that that will come to pass. As Kezia even admits herself in her own comments field, a 3-way poll is the way forward if we're going to put this to the people. And I agree with Sir Tom Hunter, let's stop faffing around and just have the blasted poll so we can move on.

And once that poll happens, for all that we think that the SNP are winning this battle at the moment and taking the higher ground by considering all options, they will come unstuck once the results are declared.

Of course we all know the result will be for more powers devolved to the parliament from Westminster. We should be so certain of this that having a poll in the first place is almost unnecessary but of course democracies don't work that way.

So we'll have the poll in a couple of years and we're going to get fiscal autonomy, broadcasting and, I don't know, a separate team at the Olympics or something as a result. Three years of constant haranguing and expense for a result we can predict here and now. And could have predicted a year ago too.

So how will the Unionist's Constitution Commission and the SNP's National Conversation look come 2010/11?

Well, sadly, the SNP will look like they've been flogging a dead horse for a few years and wasting money at a time when Swinney is desperate to save every penny, euro or dime within reach. The zeal for independence will have clouded his better judgement. Or so it will look.

The Unionists can rather smugly claim to be 3 steps ahead in the whole debate with independence safely tossed on the scrap pile for a generation and they can continue working on what extra powers Holyrood needs while the SNP flap around trying to look respectable in time for the next election.

The Unionists want this 3-way referendum, they must do surely, they simply can't lose. Maybe they are playing a very clever game just waiting for the absolute perfect time to have this referendum to ensure the SNP pain is felt most sharply.

Of these plans I sense the Unionist's could well be the best laid and the SNP's is destined to gang aglae...