New Poll - Delight for Salmond

The Daily Tory-graph is seemingly trying to paint the latest polling information as bad news for Salmond. I (surprise, surprise) disagree entirely.

• Holyrood voting intentions put the split for first/second vote as follows:

SNP (Holyrood) - 36%/37%

Labour (Holyrood) - 31%/28%

Lib Dem (Holyrood) - 15%/13%

Tory (Holyrood) - 13%/13%

This shows the SNP are holding on to their commanding position as Scotland's favourite party, with clear day light between them and Labour.

• The Westminster election voting intentions is as follows:

Labour (Westminster) - 34%

SNP (Westminster) - 30%

Tory (Westminster) - 17%

Lib Dem (Westminster) - 14%

The SNP snapping at the heels of Labour in UK voting intentions is incredibly good news. It shows the SNP have significantly increased their reputation across the nation attracting confidence and respect through their work in Holyrood.

• 38% say Alex Salmond is to "blame" for the rows between London and Edinburgh. 35% "blame" Westminster.

This is very misleading I think, and is probably caused by a badly worded question. There is a link between this statistic and the SNP's support. Alex Salmond is generally being seen as standing up for Scotland and defending their interests; the recent quotes from Scottish public personalities in the Sunday Herald and Scotland on Sunday backs this up. So yes, Alex Salmond is causing consternation with his London colleagues but only because he is fighting our corner.

I doubt Salmond would be too concerned if this 38% increased further over the summer.

• "Support for Scottish Independence slumps" as 19% of people support independence with "nearly three quarters" (strangely no exact stat is given) in favour of keeping a devolved Holyrood. Let me just say first up that there's no sign of what question was used which is always an indication of partisan foul play.

That aside, and you can call me delusional here, but this part of the poll isn't so bad for the SNP. We are motoring away towards extra devolved powers, whether it comes with a 3-way referendum or not.

These polls can't change the fact that in a straight shoot-out between independence or not, the count is very close indeed.

And any moves towards Holyrood gaining more powers will only increase the numbers in favour of independence. The closer we get to owning all possible powers, the more likely the people will think "why the heck not, we can do this so let's go all the way".

So, in the SNP's first term at Holyrood they will deliver extra powers, probably including fiscal independence, and they'll come via the Calman commission, National Conversation and/or a simple referendum.

I'd say that's a mighty big step towards an independent Scotland whatever the erratic and partisan polls are telling us.