Polling Power

For some reason this past week has seen a deluge of polls hit us with news on the views of who yous want to peruse on the Holyrood pews. (I know, there's no end to my rhyming talents)

This all makes me rather wistful for the real SNP Tactical Voting days when polls were fast flowing and the SNP lead jumped up and down, but ultimately the polls correctly predicted that the SNP would win by a small margin, even if they didn't quite predict the Greens downfall. I guess the good people of Scotland decided that an SNP administration at Holyrood was more important than Global Warming.

Anyway, as I managed to miss most of this recent polling news I thought I would bring all the results together on the one page:

Holyrood - Constituency / (List) vote

YouGov
SNP - 40%/(33%)
Labour - 32%/(30%)
Tory - 12%/(13%)
LD - 13%/(12%)
Other - 4%/(13%)

Independence

Scottish Opinion

41% in favour of independence

43% against independence

YouGov

65% in favour of a referendum

Westminster

YouGov

Labour - 35%

SNP - 31%

Tory - 17%

LD - 12%

Other - 4%

ICM (UK Wide)

Tory - 43%

Labour - 32%

LD - 18%

Others - 7%

This is a very rosy picture for the SNP while the Labour rose appears to be still twisting in the breeze.

The reliability of these polls has been called into question in the comments of an earlier post but there is a consistency in recent polls which cannot be denied and YouGov and ICM are as unbiased a polling company as you could hope to find.

If these companies don't have their integrity intact, then they don't have much, so to that end they can be trusted a great deal.

And also, with regard to the Scottish Opinion survey on independence, they asked the same question as was asked in August when support was only 31%. There is no denying that Scotland is finding the idea of independence more and more attractive as the SNP continues to lead the country.

When I 'came out' as an SNP fan a couple of years ago I was roundly mocked by my nearest and dearest. Of my family, it is now only my sister who would not vote for independence and she admits quite happily that her only reason is because she's "a fearty". Ironically, of the rest of my family, it was only my sister that actually voted SNP in May!

What a prime example of the election in May 2007 not being a referendum on independence and a further blow to the theory that a unionist majority in Holyrood equates to a unionist majority in the general population.

So as the SNP's one year anniversary of being in power approaches, one has to wonder if they could have dreamed of being so close to their ultimate victory. One final heave and you've got to think they're just about there...