Salmond's Top 20

After Alex Salmond's breathtakingly amazing speech at the weekend (I've not actually seen it yet but I'm sure it justifies such praise), I thought I would look into his objective of winning 20 seats at the next Westminster election, expected to be held around this time next year.

Researching the various seats and the chances that the SNP candidates possess in these constituencies takes me back to the joys of pontificating on the Holyrood election last year. I think it's time the SNP Tactical Voting cranked up a gear and dug into the boundary changes and candidate assessment a bit more so watch this space.

For now though, here is how the SNP can reach this magical number of 20 seats:

Already in the bag

The SNP currently hold 6 seats at Westminster. Alex Salmond (Banff and Buchan), Angus Robertson (Moray), Stewart Hosie (Dundee East), Michael Weir (Angus), Pete Wishart (Perth) and Angus MacNeil (Western Isles) make up the rather male looking line-up. I think it's safe to say that these wins will be replicated with increased majorities at the next election, so that's 6 in the bag.

The marginals

The SNP are lying in a distant 4th in a surprisingly high number of Westminster seats across Scotland but thankfully there are plenty of seats where they are banging on the door of the incumbent in 2nd or 3rd place and with only a small number of votes to make up.

I think I should add at this point that the Lib Dems were the protest party in 2005, particularly in Scotland with the immensely likeable Charlie Kennedy at the helm (I suspect Nick Clegg will have less of an effect up here). So if the SNP continue their impressive run for the next year, and Labour continues to flap around wildly, I would fully expect the Nationalists to get the alternative vote from disillusioned Labour voters and those who are unable to back the government but don't want to vote Tory. In other words, expect large swings from Lib Dem to SNP and small swings from Labour to SNP.

The remaining 14 seats will have to come from a mix of seats where SNP are 2nd, 3rd and 4th with a bit of emphasis placed on the Lib Dem swings to the SNP, my best estimate is that these seats would (will!) be the following:

Ochil - A current Labour majority of 688 over SNP with Gordon Banks the sitting MP. The strong 3rd-place finish of Liz Smith for the Tories makes this a bit trickier but it should still be easy meat for the SNP. Annabelle Ewing stood in 2005 and I expect would do so again.

Dundee West - A great win for the SNP in Holyrood could easily be replicated here, though they wouldn't have local favourite Joe Fitzpatrick standing this time. The Labour incumbent is James McGovern and he has a 45% to 30% lead over the SNP as it currently stands. I still reckon it would go SNP's way, especially as the SNP already hold the West of the city and won here so convincingly in the Holyrood elections.

Aberdeen North - Frank Doran is the incumbent Labour MP here and the SNP and Lib Dems basically tied for 2nd. (In other words, the SNP came 3rd but not by much!). Given the Lib Dems were so strong in 2005 due to their Iraq War stance and the SNP were relatively weak, I would expect large swathes of Labour and Lib Dem voters to move to the SNP, particularly as the north is one of their heartlands. The strength of Frank Doran's local popularity may well be a factor but, currently, I cannot legislate for this. I would expect the SNP to field a strong candidate in this constituency.

Kilmarnock and Loudon - Des Browne, the Defence Minister (and sometimes the Scottish Minister) is the MP here. He does have a convincing 8,700 majority but SNP won this same area at a cantor at Holyrood so there could be a scare here for Des. Increased fury at a never-ending Iraq War could well spell the end of Des Browne MP.

Gordon - Alex Salmond's constituency as an MSP will surely hold a lot of sway with the voters when it comes to Westminster. Currently held by the Lib Dems' Malcolm Bruce, I can envisage a large enough swing for the eminently thoughtful Scots and Independent superstar Richard Thompson winning this seat for the SNP.

Linlithgow - This one would have to go SNP if the Nationalists are to get their 20. Deaspite the 11,000 majority enjoyed by the Labour incumbent Michael Connarty, what concerns me more is the Lib Dem challenge of Stephen Glenn who, going by his blog, has a tireless approach to getting the Lib Dem vote out here. Again, a strong SNP candidate should be able to challenge. And win.


So that's part one of where I think the SNP will get their 20 seats. 6 in the bag and 6 pinched from Labour/Lib Dems. My reason for doing this in two parts is not a sign of my lacking confidence or struggling to find another 8 seats but merely that a lunchbreak only goes so far here and I'll have to work out the rest later.

There are still plenty of seats left where the SNP are sitting in 2nd place and, consequently, have more than a fair chance of winning and the above seats don't really cover the true SNP heartlands in their entirety where I am sure the SNP can coast to victory too.


So I'll be back soon to finish off the Top 20 with the last 8. For now, any disagreements or scoffing over my thoughts, then by all means make them public in the comments field...