Twenty's Plenty

Ok, here we go with part 2 of how and where the SNP will pick up their 20 seats at the next election.

Part 1 is here and involves the SNP winning Banff & Buchan, Moray, Angus, Dundee East, Dundee West, Perth, Western Isles, Ochil, Aberdeen North, Kilmarnock, Gordon and Linlithgow.

Good to see that Calum Cashley, SNP candidate for the tricky constituency of Edinburgh North and Leith, agrees with me on a lot of seats.

So, 8 more seats, and given the impending implosion of the Lib Dem vote and existence of SNP heartlands as evidenced by the Holyrood election, I think they will be won here:

Edinburgh East - An interesting choice for some perhaps but current Labour MP Gavin Strang is stepping down and this is the constituency of Kenny MacAskill who is doing a robust and thoroughly effective job as Justice Secretary so I suspect the balance of power will shift going into this one if Labour pick a relative unknown. They selected Norman Murray for the Holyrood election which was frankly bizarre so another selection like that would be great.

Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale - SNP are sitting in 4th place after the 2005 election. They got 9% of the vote. I think they're going to win here.

I know immediately that STB will (literally?) scream blue murder at this prediction and given he soundly whooped my ass in the Alex Fergusson vs Alasdair Morgan prediction of Galloway and Upper Nithsdale, he may lay claim to understand the South of Scotland better than I.

With boundary changes and a strong feeling that David Mundell won't stand again for the Tories I think this constituency is up for grabs. Much like the similarly shaped Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale, this could well become a 4-way tie for all the parties.

Glasgow Govan - Anytime the SNP have a historic night, then Glasgow Govan goes to the Nationalists. Margo McDonald won here in 1973. Jim Sillars won here in 1988. Nicola Sturgeon won in 2007. These are big names and whether the SNP have a big enough profile in the locker is a valid question but given this constituency is to be broken up into 3, the SNP's awesome backroom machine can work out the area they stand the best chance of picking up a seat and go for it.

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - Given the SNP were 12,000 votes away in 2005 this one that may seem optimistic but the SNP were 3,000 votes away in 2001 and I don't think Danny Alexander, the current incumbent for the Lib Dems, has enough clout that those who voted for him the last time won't be persuaded elsewhere.

Stirling - Before the Holyrood election I don't think I even would have considered this one for the SNP but Bruce Crawford's victory shows that the mood in this area has changed dramatically. The Tories temd to make a strong showing here but given Anne McGuire's poor performances this term as an MP I don't see her winning. And a Tory victory seems even more remote than an SNP one so I see this one going to the good guys.

Falkirk - I'll be totally honest, I'd love the SNP to win this one. Actually, to be more specific, I'd love to see Eric Joyce lose this one.

The first time I saw the Labour MP on tv was on the night of the 2005 election and he'd just won the seat. Granted, he had a right to be pleased but there was an arrogant smugness to Eric's general demeanour that just didn't sit right with me.

It has continued apace and I just don't take to the man when he's being interviewed. Add to this that he is regularly at the top of the Westminster expenses list and I have to conclude that there is a whiff of sleaze around him.

Falkirk should not be an expensive constituency to run or travel to London from.

With the SNP sitting second from 2005, and a fair chance the locals feel the same way as I do about Mr Joyce, I suspect this could be a not-so-surprising win for the Nationalists.

Glenrothes - I don't think we are yet scraping the barrel and the SNP are in second place so perfectly placed to pick up protest votes. Even still, overcoming the 10,500 vote majority will be tough for whoever stands here.

Argyll and Bute - The scene of a great win for the SNP in Holyrood, with Jim Mather taking out George Lyon in 2007. This could be replicated in 2009/10 with Alan Reid making way for the SNP challenger. Labour and the Tories each attracted 10,000 votes last time and if the SNP can eat into those figures and add it to their existing 7,000 then they can take top spot. Alan Reid's 16,000 votes will surely crumble given the change in mood in the area.

I also believe the SNP have made the most convincing efforts in the Calmac debacle in this part of the country and that will count for a lot.

So there we have it, 20 seats. And there were others that the SNP have at least an outside chance of taking and yes, it would be a struggle to win them all, but the optimism alone of aiming so high can carry the SNP into victories they hadn't dreamed of only recently.

Do not underestimate the power of a nationalist with the swirling scent of an independent Scotland in their nostrils.