The great thing about this awesome by-election win is, there should be another one just around the corner.If Jack McConnell was being asked by the Labour party to cling on to his Motherwell & Wishaw seat for as long as possible before swanning off to be the High Commissionar of Malawi then he will now be under some sort of 'constituency arrest' as his party try their best to stop the rot in terms of by-election embarrassments.
What is so tantalising about this particular by-election is that if the SNP were to win it, then they would only have to work with one other party in order to have a majority in Holyrood.
SNP 48 seats + Tories 17 seats
= 65 and a working majority of 1.
Further to this, a like-minded coalition of SNP + Lib Dems + Margo McDonald also gives 65 seats.
The SNP winning this constituency would be so much more meaningful in terms of power struggles than the Glasgow East by-election and explains why Labour will dig their heels in for so long over letting Jack McConnell going off to his new job.
Now, you may remember that the Commons foreign affairs committee urged the Foreign Office to "swiftly" announce a start date for Jack as it would be "unsatisfactory" for him to stay on as an MSP while the ex-First Minister prepared for his new role.
I wonder what excuses Jack may come up with over the rest of 2008 to avoid having to stand down:
"I will not desert the good people of Motherwell and Wishaw."
"Packing up my office will take about 8 months."
"Is it too late for a May 2007 recount?"
"Come on guys, it's only Malawi"
No Jack, when the Malawian deputy foreign minister himself is telling you to pick between Motherwell or Malawi, then it's time to collect your diplomatic car, your 40 staff, your big paycheque, your colonial style official residence and move on.
UPDATE: It seems Margaret Curran will be going to Malawi with Jack...!
8 comments:
I don't see much prospect of a coalition yet Jeff, especially given the success of minority government for the SNP. I think the tories are enjoying their spell in opposition just now as well. Indeed the SNP's policy regarding the Scottish Parliament still prohibits any formal coalition with the Tories, although we did recently and sensibly vote to change our policy to allow our councillors to go into coalition with the Tories.
Good to hear you have joined us. I like you less tribal/non-partisan style of politics (which I also subscribe to) that recognises that opposition parties are not necessarily the enemy. Hope to see you at conference sometime.
Best regards,
Calum MacLeod
Best regards, Calum
just to clarify, the tories only have 16 mps as Alex Fergusson, as PO, is an independent.
Jeff,
I'd agree with Calum above. Even allowing for the Alex Fergusson/PO issue I don't see the Tories entering into a coalition with the SNP, or indeed an arrangement akin to that which the Greens have with the government.
It's about what they'd get out of it. The Tories, by dint of the SNP being a minority, already get to say that they've forced the government to implement certain policies - why would they then officially back the SNP and be tarred as their 'partners'?
And for the SNP I can't imagine anything worse and more likely to resurrect the ‘Tartan Tory’ jibe that something like this. This would be especially relevant at the next election when it will ultimately be a Labour-Tory battle, even although the SNP will argue that sending a strong nationalist delegation to Westminster is the right thing to do.
Ah, I fear I've stuffed up not once but twice.
First, I jumbled my wording a bit. I don't think the Lib Dems are going to enter a coalition. I meant the SNP/Lib Dems/Margo could pass any bills without the support of others.
I should have stayed well away from the dreaded c-word!
And of course, I forgot all about Alex F.
Thanks for the welcome Calum.
What you have touched on there Jeff is the way forward for the local income tax.
If the SNP were to get up to 48 seats, then simply getting an agreement with the Lib Dems on the terms of the LIT would give sufficient parliamentary votes to allow it to pass.
Thank goodness I came to this after the earlier contributions had already been made and your hypothesis shot down. I became quite giddy (and not in a good way) at the thought of an SNP/Tory coalition in the Parliament. By all means co-operation with other parties is to be encouraged but not yet as a formal coalition and certainly not with the Tories. For God's sake we've just won one of SLab's most sacred citadels. Don't squander that by saddling up with the Tories.
Yes, again, absolutely not suggesting a permanent coalition of any kind.
Lib Dems may blink once they get a new leader in place. But given it'll probably be Tavish Scott, I wouldn't bet on it!
PS I don't think I actually suggested a permanent coalition in the post, even if I did use the c-word.
Can you say there was a coalition to pass a bill on trams, say? Or is there another word for it, if any?
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