Well, it's the end of the week again and with so much chat and worry surrounding something as dull as business and banks, I thought I'd change the subject on here to something much more exciting. Elections.I have a running spreadsheet where I update polling information and (as far as I can) local factors in order to predict what the result of the 2009/2010 election will be.
My first draft of this prediction was based purely on the latest polling data available at the time. Now I have factored in retiring MPs, seats the Lib Dems will focus their resources on and seats where the incumbent MP is part of the constituency furniture so a tank would struggle to oust him or her.
Note that this entire post is based on the YouGov/Sunday Times poll from 5th September:
SNP 34%
Labour 32%
Conservatives 17%
Lib Dem 13%
Green 2%
But, as this is a blog love post, I thought I'd start with a wee intro based on fellow bloggers out there.
__________________________________________________________________
The most fascinating of these 'blog seats' for me is Gordon, a contest between Richard Thomson (SNP and of Scots and Independent fame) and Malcolm Bruce (ex-leader of the Scottish Lib Dems and MP for the area since 1923)
Gordon is, of course, the Holyrood seat that Alex Salmond won on his way to becoming First Minister.
For the 2010 contest, I currently make it there'll be a 127 seat win for Malcolm Bruce but only having given the man a 20% bump for local popularity. I have prudently not given any bump for Richard which, arguably, I could do given the Salmond factor.
So basically this one is on a knife-edge and will no doubt mark one of the real moments of drama whenever the general election comes around.
Malcolm Bruce - 13,793 votes
Richard Thomson - 13,665 votes
Tory - 8,422 votes
Lib Dem - 7,394 votes
___________________________________________________________________
Bizarrely, I have home interest in two of the 'blog seats'. Born in Kirkintilloch but now in Leith I have good reason to give an extra oomph of cheer to Julie Hepburn and Calum Cashley, candidates for these areas respectively.
It is something of a mixed bag for these SNP PPCs.
Julie Hepburn I have down for a win in the constiuency of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East. As the Labour MP Rosemary McKenna is stepping down and a fresh face will be contesting for the red corner, I have applied a 10% discount on the number of votes won by Labour, as I have done for all constituencies where an MP is retiring.
Julie Hepburn - 16,729 votes
Labour - 15,005 votes
Lib Dem - 3,342 votes
Tory - 2,919 votes
For Mr Cashley, I just don't see the massive Mark Lazarowicz's majority over the SNP being overturned, even if I will be pounding the streets on Calum and the party's behalf. Slashed yes but not wiped out. The Lib Dems I have given a 20% bump as I can already testify they are pushing hard for this seat. I have also given Lazarowicz a 10% penalty for trams and post office hypocrisy. The Tory vote I expect to fade away in favour of tactical voting.
Mark Lazarowicz - 10,815 votes
Kevin Lang - 8,578 votes
Calum Cashley - 8,363 votes
Tory - 6,846 votes
_________________________________________________________________
Stephen Glenn is expected to stand in Linlithgow and Falkirk East for the Liberak Democrats. A very tough contest indeed for the genial Ulsterman and sadly we won't be seeing birthday-boy Stephen grace Westminster in a couple of years time:
Tam Smith (SNP) - 21,022 votes
Michael Connarty (Labour) - 18,211 votes
Tory - 5,891 votes
Stephen Glenn (Lib Dem) - 4,079 votes
_________________________________________________________________
Osama Saeed is due to stand in Glasgow Central and, with Mohammed Sarwar standing down, I rate his chances. Indeed, I have given the Labour candidate a 10% discount for the retiring MP and I've given Osama Saeed a 10% bump given his being a well known figure in the area and, arguably, will capitalise on the large ethnic population in that part of Glasgow.
Labour - 10,016 votes
Osama Saeed - 8,785 votes
Lib Dem - 2,865 votes
Tory - 1,887 votes
(note that Osama Saeed's return to blogging is expected very soon, mark your bookmark now..!)
___________________________________________________________________
Tom Harris, really the only blogging Scottish MP will have no real worries in Glasgow South.
Tom Harris - 14,945 votes
SNP - 9,357 votes
Tory - 5,193 votes
Lib Dem - 4,206 votes
__________________________________________________________________
And there we leave it for Scotland's bloggers. The full results, in this latest draft, are as follows:
POLL
SNP 34%
Labour 32%
Conservatives 17%
Lib Dem 13%
Green 2%
Labour 32%
Conservatives 17%
Lib Dem 13%
Green 2%
SEATS
SNP - 16
Labour - 32
Lib Dems - 6
Tory - 4
Smallest Winning Majorities
Gordon - 127 votes (Malcolm Bruce - Lib Dem)
Livingston - 247 votes (Labour)
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - 272 votes (SNP)
Falkirk - 306 votes (Eric Joyce - Labour)
West Dunbartonshire - 364 votes (John McFall - Labour)
SNP
Aberdeen North
Angus
Argyll and Bute
Banff & Buchan
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East
Dundee East
Dundee West
Edinburgh East
Linlithgow and East Falkirk
Glenrothes
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
Kilmarnock & Loudoun
Moray
Ochil & South Perthshire
Perth & North Perthshire
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
Lib Dem
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Edinburgh West
Gordon
North East Fife
Orkney & Shetland
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
Tory
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
Dumfries & Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Edinburgh West
Gordon
North East Fife
Orkney & Shetland
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
Tory
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
Dumfries & Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Labour
Aberdeen South
Airdrie & Shotts
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Lanark & Hamilton East
Livingston
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
Central Ayrshire
Falkirk
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Dunfermline and West Fife
East Kilbride
East Dunbartonshire
Strathaven & Lesmahagow
East Lothian
East Renfrewshire
Edinburgh South West
Edinburgh South
Edinburgh North & Leith
Glasgow North West
Glasgow South
Glasgow Central
Glasgow North
Glasgow South West
Rutherglen & Hamilton West
Glasgow East
Glasgow North East
Inverclyde
Midlothian
Motherwell & Wishaw
North Ayrshire & Arran
Paisley & Renfrewshire North
Paisley & Renfrewshire South
Stirling
West Dunbartonshire
16 comments:
Now, now Jeff I could grace Westminster in all manner of ways. After all I used to work in the city of Westminster and therefore know many of its finest waterholes, feeding troughs and other entertainments or distractions I may well grace Westminster in a couple of years time while down visiting friends etc.
But I'm expected to stand then am I? You know the result of the selection process before I do, do you? ;)
BTW you should clarify that Malcolm Bruce was only leader of the Scottish Liberal Democrats especially as the rest of your post only refers to Lib Dems of which he was never leader.
And how many times do I have to tell you it's Tam Smith for the SNP in Linlithgow and Falkirk East.
If Linlithgow had a Lib Dem better credentialed than your good self Stephen I'd be aghast. Further, I'd also be agape.
Mind you, "other entertainments or distractions"? Is that code for what I think it is?
Anyway, no mention of any disagreements with the predictions. Given up on Edin N&L and Dunfermline West already. I'm disappointed ;)
Nah it's my birthday I have better things to spend my lunch time on lol.
Mind you I've been out in EN&L recently delivering as well as Glenrothes so I haven't given up.
When did I change parties that wasn't there where I first read this. Put having meet the Late Lord Sutch in the City of Westminster you could at least get the order of the words in his party's name correct ;)
"Change parties" ?
What do you mean? Are you thinking of joining the SNP? It would be a good start not to call Alex Salmond Lord Sutch when you do as I'm sure he wouldn't enjoy that...
An unusual methodology, but we all have our ways.
I'd just point out two small factors to add in to the blogger candidacy commentaries.
Firstly, in Gordon, check out the council voting from 2007. 'Alex Salmond factor', definitely a genuine phenomenon, seriously spilled over on to the council voting in that part of Aberdeenshire. SNP scores of 40%+ were common.
Secondly, in Glasgow Central bear in mind that Labour's candidate is Anas Sarwar. He is Mohammed Sarwar's son, but effectively erases any demographic advantage Osama gets from his ethnicity. The total Asian population was only 11% in the last census, and I would expect them to include more under 18s than the population at large and to turn out at a lower rate than the population at large.
Hi Aswas,
You're right, I won't be forwarding my approach to YouGov for their approval just yet. Still, it's at least logical.
Take 2005 number of votes, divide by share of the vote and then multiply by today's polling share of the vote.
That's great news about Gordon. I had suspected that could be the case but didn't want to build it in. Then again, the local factor for an incumbent such as Malcolm Bruce is similarly difficult to quantify.
Also, I thought Anas was the candidate and I have vague recollections of some financial scandal? But I don't know enough about it to actually take points off. You certainly have a firmer grasp of things there so I'll keep all your points in mind for next time.
Thanks!
Given the 2007 election results in both Linlithgow and Cumbernauld, are you not going to acknowledge the local Labour parties might at least be working a bit harder or have a better identification of supporters than when Connarty and McKenna last contested the seats?
Hi Jenny,
For Cumbernauld, the good result for Labour was mostly due to the immensely talented and popular Andrew Wilson standing in 2001. This skewed the expectations for 2005.
Indeed I know how popular Andrew Wilson was back then as a good friend (not an SNP member) changed his home address on the electoral lists just so he could vote for him. With respect, Jamie Hepburn didn't command that same appeal in 2005 and the results fell back to the standard for the general area of West Scotland.
To expect the same SNP gains in Cumbernauld as other constituencies in 2005 was naive.
That's not to say the local Labour parties aren't doing a great job. I have absolutely no idea if that's the case in Cumbernauld or Linlithgow.
I do admit the Linlithgow result bucked the trends in 2007 and I can't think of any other reason why other than a significantly impressive effort on the ground.
I wouldn't bother with leafleting for Calum Cashley. His constant carping about trams has got to be a voter turn off - everyone else in Leith has moved on and is just looking forward to the day when the disruption is over.
Labour to win Glasgow East? Interesting!
Anon I'm not leafletting for Calum Cashley I'm leafletting for the winner ;)
Jeff - Any chance you can let me see some of your working on this? I'm currently working up a predictor on all 59 constituencies... but its not based quite on the same "science" your using!!!
Just for comparative purposes you understand...
"the massive Mark Lazarowicz"?
I think we should be told...
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