Weights and measurements

I was browsing through the information goldmine that is the http://www.alba.org.uk/ website which got me thinking some more about the d'Hondt system and its failings. I've already mentioned a few reservations I have with this Additional Members System but some further digging into the numbers revealed a few more concerns.

Let's take Renfrewshire West as a kick off:

This constituency was won by Trish Godman of Labour relatively comfortably. A 7% margin over Annabel Goldie which is about 2,200 votes.

Of course, despite finishing second, Annabel Goldie is still an MSP thanks to her position as number 1 on the list for West of Scotland.

So from the one constituency we have two MSPs.

But it doesn't stop there. In 3rd place in Renfreshire West was Dr Bill Wilson with 8,169 votes, a whisker away from Annabel's 8,289. All of this is by the bye as the SNP's impressive showing in the second vote means that Dr Bill was also voted in as a list MSP. He was number 4 on the West of Scotland list of MSPs.

So, one constituency and 3 MSPs. This is all starting to look a wee bit strange. But it's not the only one, Tweeddale, Ettrick and Lauderdale saw 3 MSPs delivered to Holyrood.

And there are other examples of poor performers in the First Past the Post system squeezing their way into parliament via the lists.

Lib Dem Hugh O'Donnell, received only 6.33% of the vote (1,670 votes) in the Cumbernauld and Kilsyth constituency, coming 3rd, and was still elected as an MSP as number 6 on the Central list.

Bill Aitken (Tory), finished 3rd with 14% of the Anniesland vote and got in at number 5 on the Glasgow list.

Alison McInnes (Lib Dem) finished 4th in Banff and Buchan with 2,617 votes, 9.5% of the vote. She is now an MSP thanks to finishing 6th on the North East list.

Ian McKee (SNP), finished 3rd with 24% of the Pentlands vote and got in at number 4 on the Edinburgh/Lothians list.

Gavin Brown (Tory), finished 4th with 17% of the vote in the Edinburgh South constituency and was number 5 on the Edinburgh/Lothians list.

Nanette Milne (Tory), finished 3rd in the Gordon constituency with 15% of the vote and was number 3 in the North East area's list.

Mike Russell is an SNP minister and he only came 3rd in his constituency with 19% of the vote.

Derek Brownlee for the Tories is in a similar position. Very much a Tory frontline member but only managed 3rd and an 18% share in Tweedale, Ettrick and Lauderdale.

Ross Finnie for the Lib Dems and Stuart MacMillan for the SNP both came 3rd in the First Past the Post contest with 17% and 19% of the vote respectively but still secured MSP status thanks to the list.

I may be labouring the point here, and I'm not for a second attacking anyone personally, there are more than a few names above that make great additions to the debating chamber and Holyrood would be a poorer place without them. (There are other names however that I barely recognise!).

My point is, there seems to be some sort of democratic deficit when a person puts themselves forward to the public for entry to the parliament, they finish 3rd or 4th, sometimes with a single digit percentage regarding the share of the vote, and they are still rewarded with being an MSP.

Of course, this is not to mention the 16 MSPs who didn't even stand in a First Past the Post constituency to be judged by the public. Note that I can exclude Margo and the two Green MSPs from that 16 given the second vote is very much specifically awarded to them personally. I can't imagine many Labour voters had their list MSPs in mind when they crossed that second box nor did Lib Dem voters specifically want Allison McInnes. Their names just happened to be the next names going at the top of the list.

Which leads me to my second point.

For too many of our MSPs, their entry back into parliament in the following four year term is dependent on their position on the party list rather than how many public votes they obtain. Realistically, some parties are pretty much guaranteed at least 1 list MSP in certain areas regardless of the political climate at the time. As public servants, all MSPs should have the Scottish population as their main point of concern and each MSP should be weighed and measured every four years by the public to ensure they are who we really want running our country.

So my suggestion to solve this problem is a rather simple one. To win a position as a list MSP there are two criteria to pass:

The first is the same as before, you must win one of the seven positions that each voting area rewards after the additional members system formula is calculated. This is your political party backing you to be an MSP.

The second is you must have finished as runner up in a constituency. This is the public backing you to be an MSP.

This may make things tricky for the Greens and Margo and other independents which, I accept, is not an ideal scenario but for the main four parties it provides a guaranteed way for all of their MSPs to connect with the general public and the 129 men and women who grace the debating chamber can sleep easy at night knowing there is no democratic deficit at play. That they have all been weighed, measured and have not been found wanting.

PS My apologies for the earlier suggestion that Simon Hutton is an MSP. And further apologies for any other mistakes in the above. Writing posts in the ever-decreasing lunch breaks that a leading Scottish bank provides is becoming increasingly difficult!

Entente Formidable

I know a good phrase when I see one and that, my dear leader, is a bloody good one so nice job old boy. Well, the congratulations to the speech-writer of course...

Apart from that, the visit of Sah-koaz-ee to these here shores has been rather dull. If Carla Bruni is making more headlines than the actual politicians then you know there's not much happening.

I do wonder though, is Gordon Brown going to cement this Entente Formidable by saying that Frank Ribery's goal against England was his second favourite after Gazza's against Scotland?

You know, after his first comment went down oh so well in this country.


I look forward to a more interesting state visit. Get the Chinese over here and then there'll be some fireworks!

Quit while you're ahead Alex

It seems in the past week the fight between the National Conversation and the Constitutional Review has stepped up a gear.

I think it is a telling example of the shift of power from the SNP to the unionists that Sir Kenneth Calman was confidently unveiled as the (unpaid) chair of the devolution enquiry while Alex Salmond, seemingly somewhat off-balance, has been swinging randomly at alternatives. The suggestion of STV is a valid one but I think he has more to gain from stepping back, taking this fight on one of his many chins, and moving on.

Alex is, after all, getting all that he could possibly have hoped for one year ago. Wendy and Nicol are pushing hard for more powers for the Parliament. Even Annabel Goldie is on board which would have been unthinkable recently. His popularity is sky-high. Wendy's isn't. And Gordon Brown is making a horlicks of running Westminster.

Now is not the time to rock the boat.

After all, it is becoming generally accepted that independence is inevitable but ironically if the SNP push too hard for it too soon, Scotland's day of standing on her own two feet will come much, much later than it would otherwise.

The popularity of independence took an unmistakable lurch forward in the months after the SNP came to power. And this was when they weren't even discussing independence but rather announcing policies on devolved issues. I'm talking road toll abolition, saving A&Es, getting tough on young drinkers, getting rid of prescription charges, ceasing student tuition fees etc.

It seems, perversely, it's only when independence is discussed (complete with the name-calling and partisan-scrapping) that the popularity for it takes a dip.

Of course the unionists were narrow-minded in ruling out independence right off the bat. It demeans us a country and the unionist leaders as politicians if they can't trust themselves to consider ALL OPTIONS in a 'once in a generation' review of Scotland's place in the UK.

But, we are where we are. The SNP can show their ability to compromise by scrapping the National Conversation and joining the table with Wendy, Annabel, Nicol and, of course, Sir Ken. Alex can make a lot of hay out of having Scotland as his number one interest by accepting the majority view of extra powers for Holyrood, short of full independence. It will be a great example of leadership and can only enhance the SNP's popularity amongst the electorate. Even the die-hard nationalists who may be peeved initially should see why Alex must play a canny game.

How perfect is the SNP's hand that has the unionists working on getting more powers for Scotland while Alex, Nicola and John get on with running the Scottish Government and building on their already impressive poll ratings.

Know when you're winning Alex.

Capello is banging them in!

Forget the hat-trick, Fabio has scored a truckload:

• Rio as captain
• Beckham to start!
• David James to start!
• Gareth Barry preferred to Frank Lampard
• No Michael Owen (no offence sunshine, but you're past your best)
• Rooney to lead the line

Awesome stuff! Change of plan for tonight, I'm off to the pub.

Bruni's tickets to the Gordon Brown gun show...

This post is so, so, so wrong in so many ways but somehow it's also solid gold.


And like all good tongue-in-cheek posts, the last line is simply a belter.



With thanks to my brother (who obviously didn't have much work on this afternoon!) for forwarding it on to me.

Frankly my Darling, I don't give a dram

It seems a few bloggers are starting to wet their pants and act like giggling schoolchildren at the thought of Alastair Darling being barred from every pub in the UK.

A veritable sprinkling of pubs have agreed to bar the Chancellor from drinking , including Utopia on Easter Road.

According to The List magazine:

"Lurking on Easter Road is the subdued-looking Utopia, whose brown exterior doesn't seem to tally with the celestial name. However, stepping off the busy road, you enter a well-designed, modern pub. The new managers have decided to close on football days, clearly indicating the market they're avoiding. The drinking and dining areas are separated, although the big-screen sport can attract a rowdy crowd for those wanting a quiet setting. The menu is a pleasant surprise, with starters including a creamy chicken liver pâté and a divine 'wee tart' slathered with spinach, mushrooms and feta."

As tasty as Utopia's wee tart sounds, I think that until Le Monde, The Dome and The Vintners Rooms etc take the implausible steps of banning Darling, our Chancellor will be fine for drinking choices in Scotland's capital for the foreseeable future.

To misspeak

There must be a million and one ways in which somebody can misspeak.

Blurting out an ex-lovers name tends to be a bit of a classic.

Asking a woman if she wants a seat because you think she's pregnant is another.

Not to mention the timeless "I love you" said by guys up and down the land after one too many beers or simply because their team won that day.

To misspeak tends to involve a short sharp statement. A phrase or a sentence that gets out before the brain kicks into gear.

Here is Hillary Clinton's idea of misspeaking:

"I remember landing under sniper fire. There was supposed to be some kind of a greeting ceremony at the airport, but instead we just ran with our heads down to get into the vehicles to get to our base."

A bit of a mouthful don't you think?

But the next paragraph in the BBC News story is a corker and helps to relay just how foul a President this Clinton character would be. (And yes, I do mean foul, that was not me misspeaking)

The video clip played by CBS on Monday shows Mrs Clinton and Chelsea walking across the tarmac smiling and waving before stopping to shake hands with Bosnia's acting president and meet an eight-year-old girl.

I suspect this was less of an innocent error and more of a conscious attempt to sound brave and ready to be Commander in Chief.

Thankfully for the rest of us her delusions of grandeur make her sound like an idiot.

Let's hope when Hillary is an older lady and talking to her grandkids about when she was President she is 'misspeaking' too.

Capello scores a hat trick

Well, there I was wondering who would make a better captain for England, John Terry, Steven Gerrard or Frank Lampard and the curly Italian that is Fabio goes and tosses the arm-band to Rio 'World Cup Wind Up' Ferdinand.

Even though I hadn't suspected it, I think it's a cracking plan and one that I hope becomes permanent as Rio has leadership qualities far outranking the moany John Terry and the whiny Stevie Gerrard. Frank Lampard would have been a good shout for captain too but he's not always good enough to make the starting XI so that alone rules him out.

Also, I feel I should mention Peter Crouch as if you have been lucky enough to see him being interviewed you will know what a cultured, class act the man is. He states his thoughts succinctly and intelligently. I'd love to see him be captain one day but alas he is also not good enough to start every game.

So, 1 out of 1 for fab Fabio so far.

I'm also delighted to see Beckham will definitely receive his 100th cap. I thought it was a bit malicious of Steve McLaren to deny everyone's favourite sarong-wearer that milestone. I accept Steve had his own problems but I'm sure against Andorra he could have found a space for Becks to do his thing one last time.

So, 2 out of 2 for Fabby C, and a ball hasn't even been kicked yet.

But it might get even better before tonight's showdown against France. I was pleased as punch to see David James' name in the England squad. Hopefully Fabio can show he is an equal opportunities coach by giving the 53 year old the start he deserves given his magnificent showings for Portsmouth this season (*note that he might not quite be 53 just yet but he must be the wrong side of 40 by now at least)

So go on Senior Capello, give us the hat-trick and a night to remember in Paris.

PS Good luck to Scotland against Croatia. This post alone will show how completely unbothered I am with the Scotland games vs England games BBC debate!

PPS I wonder what Dwain Chambers makes of 'drug cheat' Rio Ferdinand being made captain of England. An impressive plaudit for Rio while Dwain isn't even allowed on the plane to Beijing.

PPPS What do you know, David James is 37. A veritable spring chicken of a man. He'll make World Cup 2010 yet you know, mark my words!

Scottish Labour - Back on Track...?

I read Wendy Alexander's "New Directions" publication last night. This was mostly at the suggestion of Kezia Dugdale who threw down the gauntlet to SNP supporters in a recent post but I have to admit it was partly due to a two hour football game which rendered me only good for lying on the couch for the rest of Monday evening!

I have to admit, I was surprised by the document. And given I've not been particularly impressed with Labour's reaction to being in opposition, that surprise is a compliment to the writers. Overall, I found the theme to be one of optimism and humility. A highly attractive combination from anyone working in the public domain.

Infact, the only bad thing I can say about it is that there are two blank pages in it so it's not very environmentally friendly given the waste of paper from anyone printing it out.

But, this is a rare positive Labour post so I will continue in that vein. I thought the general tone was perhaps lifted from that of Barack Obama's campaign. "Change is what we do" and "we must listen to the people, listen to their hopes and aspirations". All positive stuff and tapping into a mentality that only the meanest of humans would not be happy to share in.

Further to that, there were 77 mentions of Labour, 23 mentions of SNP and only 2 of Alex Salmond. For once, this wasn't a mere attack paper but Labour are standing up and setting out what they plan to achieve.


I blogged a while back on what Labour required to do in order to win my vote. With this publication Wendy has already ticked four of the five boxes. She is moving to be a more natural leader in freely expressing her views and that can turn her into a leader to be looked up to. She has provided clarity on what it is exactly that Labour stand for. She has captured some of the optimism that the SNP have had a monopoly on for the last year. And there are a few speculative policies in the document also, an ambition to aim high for Scotland.

Of course, it's not all marshmallows and roses for Labour as they seek to overcome the mighty SNP. The untimely comments of Henry McLeish have put something of a spanner in Labour's good work. But then, the timing is so awkward for Labour, less than a week before their conference, that one has to think that it is deliberate. A man with such a bitter chip on his shoulder starts to lose credibility so I doubt his comments will affect voters' opinions as his rants no doubt continue.

Perhaps Henry McLeish should stand for the SNP as Sam Galbraith suggests. The SNP have already nicked his old constituency of Fife Central thanks to Tricia Marwick's good work but I'm sure there's a Labour stronghold somewhere that Henry could have a crack at if he is really serious about sticking the boot into Labour.

But Henry is small fry compared to the problems Gordon Brown poses for Scottish Labour. His recent comments that "when Jack McConnell lost the election" just goes to show how delusional the man is. His reluctance to share in the blame is in contrast to Wendy's understanding of the situation. Her apology to the Labour conference was derided in some circles but it showed a humility and grace that will be required before they can increase their showing in the polls. And this new publication takes that grace one step further as it is mixed with some steel and determination to fight for Scotland and win respect.

Of course, whether Wendy's humility and grace is genuine is another question but that's almost irrelevant as even if she knows she has to act that way rather than be that way, she is taking the Scottish Labour party down the correct road and if they can continue marching in this direction, despite the McLeish's and Brown's pulling them off-track, then they will go a long way to winning back popularity, positive poll placings and, ultimately, power in Scotland where, deep down, they no doubt still feel they belong.

Salmond left out in the cold

I've been reading with interest the plans that Gordon Brown and Nicolas Sarkozy have regarding nuclear power. Britain, or the UK less Scotland at least, will use French knowledge to assist them in building the next generation of nuclear power stations. The French of course will get good business (and some lovely Euros) out of this deal.

This approach by Gordon Brown is in stark contrast to the SNP's position on nuclear energy, a position focussing on renewables based largely on the current opinions of the Scottish people. The SNP's energy policy is bundled up with the populist agenda they are seeking to build.

I am all for a government seeking a populist agenda by the way, it's pretty much what they are there to do. But, there are always exceptions, and in this particular area I fear the the smog-heavy winds of change are going to blow back heavily in Salmond's face.

For one, there are some opinions that are fixed and would take a lot to shift. I believe Scotland's displeasure at the Iraq War is one that was never looking likely to change. Scotland is also more open to ideas of a larger welfare state with free student tuition and free care for the elderly being too such examples.

But I suspect the country's current support for renewable energy over nuclear energy is soft. Once the leaders of the world are seen to embrace nuclear, once Scottish electricity bills shoot up while England's creep down, once planning problems really get going with regard to renewables, well, I think then nuclear energy will suddenly appear more attractive to people of this country.

Alex Salmond is much like the French radical watching the crowd run by and saying, "There go my people. I must find out where they're going so I can lead them."

He's backed the right horses with bridge tolls, tuition fees and opposition to the War in bolstering this populist agenda but, with opposing nuclear energy, I fear he's not leading the people but joining an uninformed and naive lot in facing off to nuclear so fiercely.

And a public backlash going off in Alex's face on something as important as energy policy could be very painful indeed.

Miami Twice

A good friend in Maine forwarded on to me a highly amusing suggestion for how Florida can make itself count in this round of primaries.

"There were no hassles with the Minnesota primary. The Minnesotans simply chose an appropriate primary date, voted and resumed scraping ice off their bodies, confident that their votes would count."

The rest is well worth a read too.

Unquenchable Desire

This quote from Christopher Hitchens (via Mr Eugenides) has stayed with me over the last few weeks:

Hillary is the next president, he told radio's Hugh Hewitt, because, "there's something horrible and undefeatable about people who have no life except the worship of power . . . people who don't want the meeting to end, the people who just are unstoppable, who only have one focus, no humanity, no character, nothing but the worship of money and power. They win in the end."

Of the three remaining candidates, Hillary is my third favourite. In other words, I hope her campaign crashes and burns as soon as possible.

However, it is very difficult to argue with the logic of Hitchens above so I will take that logic and use it as a positive by changing the subject.

Let's discuss Kris Boyd.

The man who saved Rangers' bacon at the weekend with 2 well taken goals and a decisive penalty in the shoot-out. He also spared Rangers blushes by hitting the equaliser against Partick Thistle. (Or Partick Thistle Nil as I thought they were called for a long time...). I believe he was running at a goal every two games for Kilmarnock, Rangers and the national team too.

The man displays the same talents as Hillary Clinton whereas she has a desperate lust for power, his never ending desire relates to scoring goals.

To borrow Hitchens' language above, there is certainly something undefeatable about a man who has no life but for the worship of scoring goals. Kris doesn't want the game to end until he's bagged at least one. He has no pace, adds little to the team, is perhaps even overweight but that goal-scoring addiction he has is priceless. He always wins in the end.


For me, he is the first name on the Rangers, and Scotland, team sheet. But as a Celtic fan, I hope his club's campaign crashes and burns just as quickly as Hillary's will.

President McCain

I read a very interesting piece by John McCain in the Financial Times. So moved and impressed was I by this article that I thought I'd add a link to it here on the blog.

It's inspiring, it's optimistic and it is presidential. Most of all, it gives you that passionate glow that comes from words that can capture the mood of a people.


John McCain is going fishing for Democractic votes. And if I was an American, I think I might be biting...

Bloggers Anonymous

I had a very enjoyable evening tonight meeting up with Scottish Tory Boy and Malc in the Burgh. I got to learn a LOT of very interesting things...

For example, did you know it's illegal to refill a pint glass in a pub? Apparently, there may be germs spread from pint glass to dispenser and, also, it can lead to complaints that the customer doesn't get a full pint. Amazing hey?


Of course, I learned a lot more than that this evening but I would never kiss and tell. Infact, this evening, given the company, I didn't even kiss...

Angus - A spankingly good place to work

Usually when I read through the online newspapers I see the headline before knowing any of the detail.

So when I saw "Smack on bottom by lady provost" I really hoped it wasn't an SNP councillor involved as it had the makings of an embarrassing story.

Sadly, it was indeed an SNP councillor and even sadlier it was indeed an embarrassing story for the lady involved. Apparently Glennis Middleton asked for Provost Ruth Melville to be investigated by the Standards Commission for spanking her on the bottom twice and calling her a naughty girl.

Crikey!!

It's safe to say Mrs Middleton was not pleased with the investigating officer's result that nothing untoward had happened:

"Mrs Middleton, a former provost, condemned the commission's decision and declared: "I don't know what was in her mind. The fact is she slapped me on the backside and called me a naughty girl and it's inappropriate to do that."

How the Standards Commission can say it's all right as long as it's friendly I don't know. She's not my friend. She is my colleague and there is a huge difference."

She added: "I cannot believe in this day and age that anyone would do such a thing, whether it was a joke or not."I am very disappointed at the conclusion that the Standards Commission has come to and it seems to me now that councillors have less protection than anyone else in the country." (the least protection in the country? Really!?)

"What they are saying is that it is all right to do that sort of thing as long as you do it as a joke or a laugh and I am meant to accept it. I felt it was offensive and demeaning and just completely inappropriate."

Well, I have to say that if we're going to get Standards Commissions involved everytime someone knocks your hair out place then not much else is going to get done. So hopefully Mrs M can ease up slightly and pick her battles more wisely as time goes on.


I did note that:

Mrs Middleton's complaint is one of two made against the provost"


I am sure her other complaint of someone stealing her last scone won't have the conclusion she wants either....



NOTE: I did want to add a comedy picture to this blog entry. But I also want to keep my job....!

NOTE 2: Safely back home and after a very long and thoroughly enjoyable search, I decided to add a photo... ;-)

Blowin in the wind

There are times when a 0.75% drop in US interest rates would send shockwaves around the globe. But, alas, this is not one of those times.

Instead, you can almost hear the traders and CEOs mumbling petulantly that they thought it might have been 1%.

In reality, Ben Bernanke (Fed chief) might as well have donned some Indian headgear and danced his ass off to try to stem the tide of panic and losses that are gripping the markets.

Adjusting interest rates has about as much effect as blowing into the wind to prevent an oncoming storm.

But the problem is, the US authorities have to be seen to be doing something.

Maybe the loss of Bear Stearns is the bottoming out of this turbulence, maybe this is as low as we go, and if so Mr Bernanke will be slapped on the back for being a genius for his 'brave' move of dropping the rates.

Truth is, it would be just lucky timing if that turned out to be the case. The market, particularly the bond market, had already adjusted itself for the rate decrease before it was even announced. Infact, I daresay there'll be a few more losses out there as it was even money on a 1% drop in the early afternoon.

Further to that, the US Fed had already guaranteed short term cash to those key companies that needed it. Interest rates were dropped to provide liquidity to companies that already had it.

Let's just stop for a breather and consider another thing that happened today. Bear Stearns was purchased for $2 a share. That is 1% of its value a year ago. 1%!!. If you think about it, that's the equivalent of picking up a Ferrari for £800. Or buying a can of coke for 5p. JP Morgan must be still laughing and popping the champagne round about now.

So on we go into Wednesday, dazed, confused, flapping around in the hope that tomorrow is a brighter day, that companies regain their true worth and all our pensions aren't screwed forever.

For now, I would quite like to see Bob Dylan take over the Fed and announce at the podium through an ironic, knowing grin that the times they are a'changin' and the answer to all of this, my friend, is blowin' in the wind...

As I say, such words would make about as much difference as Mr Bernanke's announcement will.

Subtle collusion

Taking the lead from Iain Dale and Scottish Tory Boy, my thoughts have turned to the possible prospect of the Tories turning to the SNP as coalition partners to create a Westminster majority Government.

It's certainly not the worst idea on the island for the Nationalists. Having a wider platform to espouse the positives that an independent Scotland could bring while adding even more gravity to the already formidable Alex Salmond is an attractive prospect.

I would be very much in favour of it but, sadly, I don't see it happening.

The Tories have only been half-forgiven by the Scottish people for the wrongs they committed during the 80s. It would be too early for the SNP to brazenly become working partners with such a party.

Yes, they are working together in Holyrood currently, passing the budget together for example, but that is behind the cloak of 'minority administration' and on a case-by-case basis. I suspect in reality and in smoke-less rooms there is a lot of dialogue on a whole range of issues, more dialogue than with the Lib Dems (and Labour, needless to say) but a clear policy platform between the two parties, at Holyrood or Westminster, would undo a lot of the SNP's good work in getting their popularity where it is today.

There is also the question of the clause in the SNP constitution that states that no working agreement with the Tories is allowed. Of course the media would raise this but in reality this clause is as outdated as the bit of paper that said Berwick was at war with Russia. The only reason they can't repeal it is, it would run a danger of energising a depleted Labour party who would try to make an awful lot of hay out of it.

This subtle collusion between the Tories and the SNP is as far as the public and the Nationalist members will let their Government and their party go.


Further to the above, the Tories are going to win a majority anyway. I don't see Gordon Brown recovering anytime soon. The only balls he hasn't dropped is called Ed. His misunderstanding of Scotland and devolution is breathtaking given he has been involved in Scottish politics since his student days. I truly believe his psychological flaws will create a deliciously destructive force whereby he grips onto power with all his might while the New Labour Kingdom falls to pieces all around him in the most Shakespearean of ways.


The SNP will have to content themselves with riding high in a devolved Scotland and a Tory Government calling the shots down South.


All in all, not a bad state of affairs for the SNP so I don't see Alex's grin dimming anytime soon...

Giving kids a sporting chance

I am lucky enough to live in the Marchmont area of Edinburgh for the next wee while. The main attraction of this part of town is the Meadows which is usually chock full of girls and boys playing football, touch rugby, ultimate frisbee and so much more. There are some teams down there playing games that I don't even recognise.

Another refreshing aspect of this neighbourhood is, if someone walks into the local co-op with a hockey stick or Irish hurling equipment, the shop workers first reaction isn't too duck behind the counter and hit the security button.

Sport is very much engrained in these peoples' lives. Even as I type here in the kitchen there are 12 basketball kits hanging up to dry.

So what is my point here? Well, two things...

The majority of students who are into these sports tend to be foreign. I'll always remember the German guy from my student days who asked me if Edinburgh had a Korfball club. I think I only managed to vaguely shake my head as my brain was overcome with the question "What the bloody hell is Korfball!?"

The other point I have is, it seems for a lot of Scottish people it is only after they leave school that they feel free enough to try new sports. For me, back in my schooldays, over the course of 6 years I had one lesson in cricket, one in hockey and zero in rugby. I'm not suggesting I was ever going to set the world alight in any of those sports but it would have been nice if my school had thrown more at us than just a football once or twice a week.

So what can be done? Well, where university leads, Scottish schools can follow and I believe a very long step in the right direction could stem from copying the Fresher's Week model.

Now I'm not suggesting that kids of 11 and 12 should act like Freshers by staying up to all hours and getting ridiculously drunk. I'm sure they're doing that anyway without further interference.

No, Freshers' Week at most universities has a sports open day when you turn up to a hall and every sports and social club is there selling its wares, signing people up with promises of fitness, fun and frolics. It's a merry-go-round of potential opportunities and a perfect way to discover sports you'd never properly considered before. It's certainly one of the star attractions of any student's first week and a perfect ice-breaker for friendless students was always "So what clubs have you joined?"

So why not organise all the youth groups and sport clubs in any one area to do a tour of the schools on the first week of term and boost their numbers? It will relieve some of the burden on P.E. teachers to get kids healthy, it will relieve some of the burden on parents as they get an extra few hours a week of peace while the kids are off playing croquet, tennis or handball or something and ultimately it may even noticeably relieve the burden on the NHS if we can get Scotland fitter.

I admit I am a little out of touch and maybe something similar has already taken off in Scottish schools. My nephew's sporting imagination is very healthy for example as he doesn't know whether he'll be a basketball or a baseball player. Tough life hey?

So hopefully, before too long, there'll be a few more Scottish accents wandering around town and asking where the Korfball clubs are...

EDIT: Thanks to the link from Conservative councillor Cameron Rose. I had Mr Rose in my thoughts as I typed this blog entry up as he often promotes sport in the Meadows. For example, he must be the only public figure I know of who congratulated the World Champion frisbee team that is based in Edinburgh. Yes, I thought it was rather impressive too...

Taking Paddy on at his own game...

Maybe it's the colour green that people just feel more attracted to but isn't it odd that even in Scotland people party harder for the Irish patron saint than they do for St Andrew?

Thankfully the SNP are pushing hard to right this wrong. I'm not particularly religious and, to be honest, it's less about the saint and more about painting your face, putting a ginger wig on (or leprechaun's hat) and going out and having a good time.

Anything to grease the party wheels and let off some Scottish steam can only be a good thing.

So I look forward to the next, em, ucht this is embarrassing, when exactly is St Andrews Day?

While I sup from my Guinness here, you can see Scotland has a long way to go to beat the might Paddy, to be sure, to be sure!

Stifling Debate

The latest knee-jerk reaction to an off-the-cuff remark is the BBC and Scotsman's reporting of Bill Aitken's comments regarding methadone users.

In the midst of a series of sensible points, Bill has been quoted as saying some such users sit 'fat, dumb and happy' on them.

Needless to say an unnecessary apology will be on its way from the man, his chastisement will prevent him from speaking his mind quite as much in the future and once again we all lose out as a result of a 24-hour media that seems to boss the politicians around all too easily.

I just hope the less PR-conscious Annabel Goldie (compared to David 'look at my family' Cameron) will back him up.

I think he has a perfectly valid set of points that are well-deserving of being explored but, like Boris and his Liverpool comments, Prof Chris Harvie and the dump that is Lockerbie and Samantha Power with her Hillary 'Monster' Clinton off-the-record remark, I think it's safe to say that Bill Aitken will be apologising through gritted teeth at some point today.

It's just a shame the seemingly acceptable parameters of conversation in this country are narrowing and narrowing. I blame those fat, dumb and happy journalists myself but what can you do...

NINJA Mortgages

Back in those halcyon days when I was a student, locking horns with the secrets of science, our professor informed us that Mathematics was the underlying current of life. It bound everything together. Understand it, and the rest followed naturally...

Well, sadly for Professor Bailey, it seems Mathematics has been replaced by another phenomenon that binds the world together. The Credit Crunch.

In today's Sunday newspapers, the credit crunch links a good number of stories in a way that I had not fully appreciated until the tail end of last week. From the UK Gov polling report to the value of gold, it's all related to those sub-prime mortgages.

A lecture from a world-savvy Economist has turned me from a novice into a genius* on this very subject. I know, it only took an hour or so...! (* not that I am ever one to exaggerate)

So here goes, an 'idiot's guide' to the Credit Crunch and how it affects us all:

Well, it all really starts with these NINJA and 110% mortgages. These products that were available in those heady, FTSE-strong days when assets were liquid and money was plentiful. Consequently, credit was cheap. The big banks were throwing the stuff at us due to the low interest rates around 2002-04.

Note that NINJA mortgages related to products for people with No Income No Job or Assets. Yes, that's right, people on benefits were being offered private sector mortgages only a couple of years ago.

It's also worth noting that if you had a mortgage with HBOS (say) then it doesn't necessarily sit there for the next 25 years. HBOS will bundle it up with other mortgages and sell it on like a piece of stock.

Well, around 2004, these mortgages were getting grouped with each other and sold on the financial markets as something called a "Collateralised Debt Obligation" (CDO). Or, if it was American based, "Collateralized Debt Obligation". That z instead of an s is pretty important as the Americans had interest rates down to 1% at one point. 1%!! Can you imagine the cheap credit that was available over there? Well, consequently, the CDOs from that part of the world were more risky as it was backed up by these NINJA mortgages with people from Hicksville trying to pay interest on their property when they barely had 2 cents to rub together in between shooting tin cans with Grandpas guns and waving at aeroplanes.

The thing about riskier financial products is (you're gonna love this) it comes with a higher yield. It actually makes for a more attractive product to investors!

You see, the higher the risk involved, the more of a return the investor demands.

So as interest rates started creeping back up again, so too did the monthly costs for peoples' mortgages and so too did the number of bankruptices. But these CDOs somehow kept the same yield.

All these cash rich banks had millions and billions of spare cash to invest and they were blinded by the chase for the yield. They wanted the highest return going and didn't stop to question the CDO assets they were buying. Further to this, the credit rating organisations hadn't caught on to what was going on and were still giving out AAA ratings to products that were about to be almost worthless a couple of years down the line.

And then the conditions in the market changed drastically. Interest rates rebounded sharply. The mortgage arrears went through the unpaid-for roof.

To put this into perspective, in 2006 alone €200billion of assets based on CDOs and dodgy mortgages were issued into the financial markets.

So what was the trigger?

Well, Credit Lyonnais basically. In 2007 it reassessed its risk exposure to these sub-prime mortgages and the alarm bells started to ring around the world. Every other bank and financial institution that had such exposures followed suit and almost instantly the liquidity tap was turned off. The short term asset market dried up as panic started to spread. Just what have we been buying for these past 4 years? everyone seemed to ask at pretty much the same time.

Basically, no-one wanted to touch sub-prime mortgages or CDOs. None of the banks or building societies could shift these loans from their balance sheet and the returns they bought into, those high yields of 10%, had been significantly over-estimated.

Spare cash was hoarded to finance these dodgy loans. And those that couldn't be financed were written off to the tune of billions. Anyone who needed short term credit were stuffed, with Northern Rock near the front of the queue. They had the long term assets but they just didn't have enough cash to function in the short term.

Companies that are due to join them are Bear Stearns and Irish Permanent. The most worrying aspect is that we are probably only half way through this ugly chapter in capitalism's history. Noone knows exactly what they are exposed to and just how deep the pain will be.

As an example, UBS Warburg had announced $10bn of losses in its mortgage-related securities during 2007. It was generally accepted that that was all there was. But January 2008 saw the investment bank announce a further $4bn of losses. These may be the Capitalist big boys, but it's not petty cash we're talking about here...

And that's where we are now, week by week more losses are announced, the FTSE and Dow Jones indices drop lower and lower, cash is pumped into the economy by the Fed and US interest rates are slashed. All to a relatively minor effect as there is just too much uncertaintly right now. So belts are tightened, cost control will be the watchwords of 2008 and you can bet your bottom much-coveted dollar that unemployment is going to bounce back up again.

Specific to the UK? Well, the housing market has stalled and mortgages are increasingly tougher to pay off with rising prices in power and food. I can't remember seeing so many Fixed Price homes for sale in the ESPC. And the Chancellor is powerless to do anything. Interest rates are controlled by the Bank of England and they can't relieve the pressure with lower rates as their decision is based on the rate of inflation, which is already dangerously high.

Meanwhile, Labour's popularity has dropped through the floor, chiefly based on the economic situation. An economic situation that they can do nothing about as it is almost solely due to these dodgy American mortgages and you can't shut the door once the billion dollar losses have bolted.

Chillingly, the Economics speaker left us with the message that what we have seen already, the Northern Rocks, the billion pound write-downs, is probably just the tip of the iceberg.

Basically, wrap up nice and warm cos America's sneezing fit is only going to get worse and the UK doesn't have any vaccine for the coming cold we're about to get.

Simple Truths

So it’s been 5 years since the Iraq War began.

To be fair to Tony Blair, back in 2003 I would have said that simply invading Iraq, toppling Saddam and freeing its people would be a relatively easy thing to do. I disagreed with and marched against the way Tony went about it, but at the core, I didn’t mind too much about the war given it’s difficult to feel sorry for an evil dictator. One that, I thought, would be better gotten rid of.

Five years of carnage, wasted money and a staggering amount of bloodshed later and both Tony and I should now be able to see that we were both wrong. The level of instability that has been caused as a result of invading Iraq does not justify the tired excuse of looking for weapons of mass dstruction. As Tony said in 2003, history would judge him and it has found him wanting.

My mistake was simple naivety.

Tony Blair’s mistake, in ignoring the vast intelligence and swathes of resources at his fingertips, was simply criminal.

Lost and Found

One of the most enjoyable sides of blogging is the great joy that the website www.statcounter.com can bring.

As a holder of an MSc in Statistics, the various graphs, stats and analysis that that website brings warms my heart in the nerdiest of ways.

But it is the search function that really gives me a kick. It really opens your eyes to the weird and wonderful people that are out there when the following phrases were punched into Google and some truly random people turned up at my humble blog as a result:

"cathie craigie monklands abstained"

"big enchilada"

"where does Nicol Stephen live?" (Crikey, I should maybe phone the police about that one!)

"biro pen for voting"

"finnish porn" (that's far from being a one-off search item too. 'Mention tits, triple your hits' it seems...)

"how do you know they love you" (aww, bless)

"margaret curran sh" (yes, I wish she would shut up too)

"alex salmond allegiance queen crossed fingers"

"tory lib dem tactical voting get ken out" (that's one vote in the bag for Boris then!)

"snp numpties" (Lord Foulkes has got his broadband up and running then, good stuff)


So that was all fun and games really, but most interestingly, the top search item was Danny Cipriani. This surprises me as I only wrote about the guy last week so I think I'm going to take on an experiment. Try blogging about specific people in the news and see if the hits pick up as a result.

It makes sense really. The egotist in me wants the number of hits to rise and rise and rise. I call it the Tony Blair phenomenon (and if anyone read the fascinating psychological account of Tony and his Hubris Syndrome in the Sunday Times then you'll know what I'm talking about there!)


So, as Big Brother and Euro 2008 kick in this summer. Expect this blog to reach new levels of low-brow chat as my unquenching desire for hits continues...!



And just to increase my chances even further , let me just say Britney Spears, Paris Hilton, naked boobies and sex.

There, that should be a good extra hundred Google hits today alone!!

Greed of staggering proportions

I decided to get a sneaky peak at the Sunday Herald headlines before I headed off to bed and a truly astonishing story is lying in wait for readers tomorrow. Bizarrely it's not a front page exclusive as the display of greed really does take ones breath away.

Rather than stay in an Edinburgh hotel while working at Holyrood, Trish Godman stayed at her son's flat. A flat which is a few minutes walk from parliament. However, she still decided to claim £100 a night from the public purse.

She has claimed over £30,000 based on this approach to the MSPs expenses.


This is at worst a criminally fraudulent situation and at best a blatant disregard for public finances based on personal greed.


Whatever it is, Trish Godman should have no option but to resign. Much like Eliot Spitzer and his trousers, Ms Godman has been caught with her morals down and her time must surely be up...


By-election anyone?

How pigs may fly...

I feel I can be a little bit harsh on Labour at times. I try to do it in jest but I do worry a slight malice has the potential of creeping in. So I thought I'd take some time to examine what it would take for me to put a cross against a Labour name at the next election. Heck, I'm from Glasgow originally so surely there's something in my genes that makes me want to tick against the red rose.

I have come up with the following:

• A leader to look up to. I do think Wendy has it in her to be a very attractive Scottish First Minister. Her not having to worry about charges from police or electoral commissions is welcome if, perhaps, not entirely fair. She is now free to build some confidence but crucially for me, Wendy has to come over as being a bit more natural. She seems to take on a 'persona' in interviews and in FMQs. Her dropping this seeming falseness would go a long way to getting my vote.
• Fresh blood in the cabinet. I am getting a bit tired of the same faces saying the same old things up in Scotland from Labour's viewpoint. They need to shake it up and I think they missed a trick given Margaret Curran's latest strop. Wendy could have showed her who was boss and given a younger, fresher MSP a chance to shine in the spotlight. I'm afraid I am no longer able to get excited about Hugh Henry, Jackie Bailie or Andy Kerr.
• Clarity on who they are fighting for. I do think the main advantage Labour has over the SNP is that Labour are seen as the genuine protectors of those most in need. I think the SNP are still finding their feet with regard to how to tackle drugs, poverty and housing issues whereas Labour as a whole have a lot of experience and ideas to draw on. If they were able to communicate their plans more coherently and find an appropriate level of cash allocation for helping out the lower stratas of Scotland, then I'd be impressed. Labour, arguably, want to give too much money to those in need and perhaps the SNP not enough.
• Optimism. People feed off of optimism and the good mood filters down into the general population. We can't deny the SNP pulled this off very well in the run up to and subsequent to the last election. I don't respond well to Labour's doom-and-gloom approach that they sometimes adopt so if they were able to reverse this, then that would help enormously.
• Some speculative policies. I know this is a failing on my part but I'm not going to pretend that the SNP didn't manage to attract me with some easy open goals. Cancelling student loans and getting rid of prescription charges to name but 2. It doesn't even matter that it was only out of two. Lofty aspirations and creative thinking count for a lot.

So, we'll see what Wendy and co have up their sleeves over the Spring and Summer. Given their winter of discontent is drawing to an end, one can only suspect that they will be turning up the heat on the SNP over the next few months. And who knows, the voters may return to them in their droves and draw me in with them...

The Budget

Sadly my break has come just a little too early to catch Darling's first budget but I am very much looking forward to it.

I think the Chancellor can put a lot of bad news behind him and nail this budget fairly easily. I don't see the Conservatives landing many punches in the afternoon debate for example.

Or maybe it's just me that is happy with what is expected to come:

• Drivers hammered for the luxury of owning a car, particularly the gas-guzzling, ozone sapping big cars. I don't own a car so he can tax them to the eyeballs for all I care.
• Air passenger duty being replaced with a tax on flights. A ridiculously sensible idea and one that has been a long time coming. Remarakably it may bring flight prices down if the Ryanairs and Easyjets can keep their flights full which shouldn't be too difficult. So good news there.
• Booze, no doubt, will have a bit of a hike which is fine with me as a very light drinker. As long as he leaves whisky alone I'll have no complaints there.
• I don't see him touching stamp duty either. The housing market is correcting itself quite nicely and intereference from the Government might affect that so I'm happy for it to be left alone. And anyway, my flat is stamp duty exempt so, selfishly, I have a competitive advantage in the market.
• Forcing supermarkets to charge for using carrier bags. A simple yet effective way to reduce the needless bags in society. I already have my reusable bag (which doesn't always get reused I do admit) and I have also given up on supermarkets for 2008 so the above shouldn't affect me while it combats climate change at a very local level.

Time will tell if all of these things come to pass but I have both of my thumbs primed and ready for a successful first Budget from Chancellor Darling.

Scottish Labour - In desperate search of a Fat Lady

Scottish Opera has brought in Five:15 for Glasgow and Edinburgh's cultural enjoyment.

Five:15 consists of five bite-sized chunks of Opera each lasting 15 minutes. An inspired idea and one that is receiving great reviews so far.

The Scottish Labour Party's offering to the Winter Calendar is a soapier style of opera and lasts longer than 15 minutes. I make it 5 months now and the fat lady is still to grace the stage to signal something of an end.

The latest twist? Margaret Curran, who had until recently been playing a grudging clapping monkey to Wendy 'organ grinder' Alexander, has broken ranks and is trying to fell the Paisley heroine by claiming she has been "shocking and appalling" in her performances as leader.

Alexander's dim but faithful assistant Jackie Baillie, too loyal for her own good, has run valiantly to the scene to defend her friend and leader. Needless to say this is a solo part of the play with Andy Kerr and Iain Gray watching on morosely from Stage Left. Rumours that Gordon Brown was watching from Stage Right alongside Nicolas Sarkozy and Margaret Thatcher are as yet unfounded. He did promise he would be there to see it but that doesn't tend to count for much.

Like all good operas, this will ultimately end with blood on the floor and knives in the back. It even mirrors the most popular of the Five:15 operas:

the abuse of power, the imposition of knowledge, the nature of oppression and the betrayal of trust

The title of this 15 minute show is The Perfect Woman. Sadly, The Cunning Little Vixen would be a more appropriate title for Ms Curran's current offering.

As has been said before: "Margaret Curran? I wouldn't even send her for my messages..."

I look forward to Act 17 of this never-ending tale.....

What price a good headline?

To be fair, The Scotsman and their 'exclusive' that Hillary's a monster has given them worldwide coverage but I think it's a fairly low blow to quote someone for an off-the-cuff remark knowing full well it is going to cost them their job.

I've never held The Scotsman and their journalists in particularly high esteem but they sunk a little bit lower yesterday.

If this is some sort of turning point for Obama I think I'm going to have to move country!

But then again, I am reminded of a West Wing episode where the President calls his Republican challenger an idiot (not outright, it's more of a gun metaphor). The press spend the next 5 days discussing how impolite it all is but the lasting memory for people is they have a choice between a thick President or a really clever one.

And maybe, just maybe, that could be the silver lining in all of this. If the choice in America's mind is "shall we go for an optimistic bright young man or a monster" one can only hope they make the right choice....

Danny Cipriani

Danny Cipriani, the English rugby player who had been selected for the 'tough' game against Scotland this weekend:

5th March 2008: "I want to become the best in the world at what I do, but I am a long way off yet."

6th March 2008: Booted out of the squad for "inappropriate behaviour".


A "long way off" just got a little bit further away young man...



(And yes, this is about as much joy as I'm going to derive from the Scotland vs England match. I am personally hoping that Frank Hadden trades in all his wooden spoons for one super-sized one which he allows the good people of Scotland to 'paddle' him with until the Autumn Tests!)

Dwain Chambers

Before I begin, I accept entirely that I am a bleeding heart liberal.

Anyone being sentenced to life in jail tends to immediately get my sympathy, regardless of what horrific crime they have committed, nuclear weapons are inherently wrong (of course), i am pro-Europe, pro-immigration, I always support the underdog in the Scottish or FA Cup and I even had more than a flicker of concern for the unmanly treatment of Saddam Hussein for the few minutes before he was executed.

So, with all of that in mind, it is perhaps no surprise that I find it regrettable that so many people have it in for Dwain Chambers. Particularly frustrating is his being blocked a trip to Beijing to take part in the Olympics.

It seems there is hope for the sprinter though, one of the UK's finest sprinters I hasten to add. There is apparently solid legal ground for challenging the ban on him competing this summer in China.

So that's good news and hopefully a reversal will come to pass but my main concern in all of this is: At what point was it deemed acceptable, after a man has endured his allotted punishment, to give him a good kick or three just because it feels good.

When someone shoplifts, and they are given 6 months in jail, you don't visit them one week after parole and slap them around for a few minutes to make sure they got the message.


The two year ban assigned to Dwain Chambers was presumably chosen to

(1) serve as a deterrent to others,

(2) a punishment to Dwain

and (3) also a 'cleansing' period whereby he could return to the athletic fold with his body free from drugs.


All three should have worked so to all these morally superior nay-sayers, I do hope they can hold their tongues and let our chastised sprinter get on with what he does best.

The Limp Dems

Just when I thought the Lib Dems could not have faded into the background any more, I find that they are to abstain on the vote on whether the UK public should have a referendum on the EU Lisbon Treaty. Or constitution as it would be better known.

And yes, this is the referendum that Labour promised back before the election but something as trivial as keeping one's promises probably won't come into it again. The 'feartie fae Fife' wouldn't allow it.

But as to the Lib Dems, well, why can they not muster enough courage to vote either yes or no? Do they have absolutely no opinion on this subject, not even a flicker of a leaning that would allow them to actually participate in the vote? Incredible really.

They are, of course, keeping Gordon Brown sweet in order to ease their passage into his bed in the event of a hung parliament next time around. Smart politics? Or selling your principles to the highest bidder?


I don't know about anyone else but I prefer my politicians to have a bit of steel and integrity. I guess, given the vote is a guaranteed 'win' for the government, I'll have to settle on checking whether Mark Lazarowicz (my MP) votes the way I would like him to.

To be fair to the man, he often rebels against his party and sticks to his principles. Easy to see why he's not a Lib Dem at least...

The (Old) Firm Favourite

Is it just me or are American Primaries becoming more like Old Firm games?

I don't mean the petulant name-calling, I don't mean the sudden moments of drama when you realise someone's pulled it out the bag at the 11th hour (that's a lot of injury time!).

No, I simply mean that each one seems to be billed as the most important showdown since, well, the last one!

But this time, I think they really mean it. I am sure Hillary will fight on if she happens to lose one or either of these states but you can't put a Hershey Bar between the two Democractic candidates and I'm not going to try to call how either state will go.

To add more confusion to the stakes, it turns out there is a larger than expected independent turn-out for these primaries. Would Republicans turn up to vote for whoever they think is most likely to lose against John McCain? And if so, which candidate would that even be!?

I genuinely have butterflies thinking about the results of these contests. I so want Obama to win through; he's got charisma, talent, optimism...

And if he had played Barcelona in the Nou Camp tonight I bet he would have stuffed them 5-0!

Mr and Mr Duncan?

Congratulations to Alan Duncan who will be the first Tory MP to enter into a civil partnership later this year.

A politician deciding to get 'married' would not ordinarily be so newsworthy but given that the Conservative party, fairly or unfairly, have often been deemed to be homophobic in the past, it is a great advert for them that a person in the shadow cabinet is taking this step.

And, by coincidence, this weekend saw the 30th anniversary of Sydney's Mardi Gras. The 29th such event was one that I very nearly attended but, in the end, the very reason for my trip to Australia, a good friend's wedding, meant that I had to miss out seeing the spectacle up close.

By all accounts it was a raving success....

Retirement has been provided!

And so Dr Ian Paisley is to step down as the Irish First Minister in May. A whirlwind year for the 81 year old, so often on the margins of Northern Irish politics, he can credibly be labelled as the man who dragged the country up the last few steps into what is now, and hopefully will be forever more, a truly matured nation.

Sitting side by side with ex sworn enemies, even laughing with them on regular occasions, such images must surely have warmed the hearts and fuelled the optimism of people who had nearly given up daring to dream.

But let's not get too misty-eyed about the old man. He was as tenacious and, often, as terrible as they come. This nugget of gold is one I sincerely hope genuinely occurred one fine Ulster day:

Paisley preaching on the agonies of hell, "there will be weeping, and wailing, and gnashing of teeth."

A little old man at the back of the church exclaimed, "But Dr. Paisley, I don't have any teeth."

Paisley thundered back, "Teeth will be provided!"

D'Hondt Say I Didn't Warn You...

I had always been a fan of the D'Hondt formula, the basis by which MSPs are elected to the Scottish Parliament.

It is just about as respresentative a system as you could hope for in a modern, progressive country such as Scotland.

But, sadly, it must be time for a change...


My reason? Well, aside from the fact that you get two levels of MSPs, the list MSPs and the other ones who actually do some work, you have a more pressing concern and a rather simple one at that.


Basically, it's about the clever use of the first and second vote. As any tactical voter will know, even a relatively low number of voters pushing the rules to the absolute limit in elections can be beneficial in getting the result they want.

Take Glasgow where, inexplicably, the cold dead hand of Scottish Labour have a stranglehold on the majority of the constituencies. Voters in this area shouldn't even waste the effort of ticking the second box for Labour as there will not be a Labour list MSP in this area until the SNP start making some serious gains (which, to be fair, could be as soon as the next election).

So, sensible voters will vote Green or SSP or Lib Dems. You know, one of the minor irrelevant parties. Or maybe they even vote Tory or SNP to try to squeeze the chances of a party they particularly dislike.

All pretty fair so far I would think.

Now imagine there was another political party on the voting sheet: Labour Plus, say.

Now, technically, Labour Plus are a completely separate party from Labour but they just happen to have a suspiciously similar outlook on how Scotland should be run. Voters would be free to vote for this party with their second votes and given there are no Labour Plus constituency MSPs, even if half of Glasgow's voting public worked out what was going on, they'd get about 3 MSPs in the one region. Not too shabby a return for very little effort...

To be honest, I'm amazed something like this hasn't happened yet. The SCCUP had a stab at it in 2007 by advertising itself as a prop up to the Labour Government:

Per the SCCUP website, now removed: "If all the Labour Voters were to vote tactically with their second transferable vote in 2007 for the SSCUP then there would be FIVE SSCUP candidates elected as MSPs in the Central region and even more importantly there would be only two other parties who could win the two remaining regional seats and this would reduce the opposition to the Labour Government by five seats because we in the SSCUP would be very comfortable voting with the majority party and with similar victories for us in the other regional lists we could replace the Lib/Dems as coalition partners with Labour.”


So, for me, as a tactical voter in favour of the SNP, you can see why I'm a little bit nervous!


But then, it could so easily work in 'my' favour.


The D'Hondt formula was used to ensure no one party got a cheap majority. That is, you'd need about 60% of the population voting for you before you could command the debating chamber.

But what if the SNP somehow managed to convince those in favour of independence to vote Green with their second vote at the next election. And the Green's decided to not stand in any First Past the Post seats.

It would take some doing but I reckon the Greens could take on average 3 seats in every region with nationwide SNP support which would give a grand total of 24 to start with. The SNP would then need to win 41 of the 79 constituency seats to command a coalition majority over everybody else. Of course, they could always pick up a few regional seats from SNP voters who didn't catch on what was going on. I guess if the Labour party are chock full of people who didn't understand the SCCUP ruse then the SNP probably have at least a few such numpties kicking around.

I may be making this up as I go along here but it's not completely unrealistic. If the SNP find they are continually banging their head against a brick wall with regard to getting an independence referendum on the go, then maybe an "all-in strategy" is just what they need, especially if Scottish Independence is as madly and deeply desired as many of the SNP's detractors would have us believe.


But, ultimately, as fun as this unsporting spectacle would be, all of the necessary pulling of the D'Hondt System from the sides leaves the entire formula in an unsightly mess. Voter confusion would be even higher than last year's debacle. The goal posts would have changed so often people may not even know what they're voting for when they get to the booths. If they even bother to turn up at all of course.


So D'Hondt has to go, even to save us from the outside chance of having John Swinbourne or Robin Harper as Deputy First Minister!

Humility and humiliation

I've been trying to assess just what it is that makes me want Obama to win the Democratic nomination when, on paper, Hillary should be more qualified to lead the USA.

And ultimately, for me, I think it comes down to one factor. Humility.

Obama's got it and Hillary doesn't.

I don't know if there can be many things more arrogant than claiming to be the "inevitability candidate" as Hillary did. Suggesting that you'd 'better pick me cos there's no-one who even comes close to having what I have' really takes some gall.

Thankfully Barack adopts a different tack. His suggestion that he maybe offers what the country is looking for and he would try his damndest in office if he was to get in is much more appealing to Hillary's hard-nosed sales pitch.

There is no doubt that President Obama would be eternally grateful for every day of his tenure in the West Wing. I struggle to picture Hillary having the same emotionally charged edge to her first day in the Oval Office.

I believe this presidential humility would stem from an over-riding understanding that when you lead a country you are serving its people and not the other way around. With Obama, he would count himself lucky to be there. With Hillary, she would think everyone else should be grateful she put her name in the ring.

And of course the above is transferrable to UK Politics.

Tony Blair, the original "Servant of the People", was exceedingly grateful to the Cool Britannia voting public to start out with but 10 years was arguably too long for the man and he lost sight of what exactly he was trying to achieve with all that power. Gradually, the opinions of the electorate were less and less important to him.

Gordon Brown has picked up this mindset along with the keys to Number 10 and has been out of touch since day 1. I'm not sensing much humility and gratitude from the Clunking Fists at being allowed to be Prime Minister. This is especially disappointing given there was no election, internal or external, to the Labour Party.

For Wendy, well, I suspect there would be a genuine gratitude at being allowed to put her ideas into practise as First Minister but this is somewhat spoiled by her apparent inability to respect the mandate that Alex Salmond and the SNP have had for the last year.

And as for Alex Salmond, I am sure not a day goes by that he doesn't pinch himself at being First Minister. He is so delighted at the opportunity that I'm sure his smile hasn't cracked since.


And ultimately, that's what makes Barack Obama and Alex Salmond true leaders in my eyes. A mix of optimism, talent and experience but never succumbing to raw arrogance and complacency.

Their humility, whatever may happen for either man in the next few years, will always save them from humiliation.