David Cameron and the SNP

Per David Cameron:

"I want to win the next election outright. I recognise that even if in doing that we don't have a majority in Scotland I will work with anyone in Scotland, whoever the First Minister is, whoever wants to keep the Union together, to make sure that the Government in Westminster governs in the interests of the whole of the United Kingdom."

Am I reading too much into this or is David Cameron saying he is not prepared to work with the SNP if the Conservatives win in 2010?

At some point the Tories, the Lib Dems and Labour will have to accept that a party that wants to see Scotland as an independent nation not only won a national election but is still riding high in the polls.

Simply brushing the independence referendum question under the carpet won't cut it over the next couple of years. The whole of the UK will increasingly want that referendum, even just to vote "No" and put the blasted thing to bed.

Criminals in the community

I have to agree with Annabel Goldie that having people commit crimes that result in judges wanting to send these criminals to jail but there being no space is unsustainable. Something has to give.

Money is tight and building new prisons would take time.

What if we brought in a policy of sending criminals to foreign jails and paying other countries to house them for us?

I'm not talking about a nice little Mediterranean home-from-home either. I daresay the prospect of 6 months in Sarajevo's equivalent of Barlinnie would bring crime statistics plummeting as fast as the FTSE!

House of Representatives votes down rescue bill...!

I am shocked, I thought it was going to sail through.

But as the news sinks in, I just wonder if there could be some political motivation at play since the Democrats rule the House (feel free to correct me on that).

I thought McCain was playing a canny game before by opposing it. Given most people expected the bill to pass, McCain was in a win-win situation. Had the economy continued to suffer (as it surely would have), the Republican nominee could have had a lot of mileage over how wasteful those Democrats have been with your hard-earned money.

Now, the shoe is on the other foot, the US Economy is in for a torrid time in the run up to the election and Obama can campaign on this missed opportunity of a $700bn bail-out having been the perfect solution with McCain's free market approach seemingly causing all the chaos.

Banks overboard

Given that Fortis, one of the 3 purchasers of ABN Amro, has now had to be partially nationalised, I wonder what would happen if the worst was to happen and the Belgian bank's fellow buyers (RBS and Santander) went to the wall.

Particularly, what would happen to the Dutch bank ABN?

Would the Governments effectively be getting a 4-for-the-price-of-3 deal when it came to buying banks? Or would ABN be cut adrift in the choppy waters of the credit crunch like a Marie Celeste ghost ship? Or, fittingly, like The Flying Dutchman...?

PS I have just read the US voted down that $700bn bail-out. It's going to be absolute carnage tomorrow. Robert Peston said this was the worst day of the credit crunch yet, I guess we'll see if that's a very short-lived title.

Misquotes

It's taken a while for me to mull it over and be sure of my suspicions but I am now adamant that Alex Salmond has been misquoted and severely misrepresented in the media over the past week.

There has been a lot of comment surrounding Alex Salmond's supposed suggestion that an independent Scotland would have released £100bn of funds in order to save HBOS. Indeed, as it was included in The Guardian and other leading broadsheets, I assumed in good faith that that suggestion had been made by the First Minister.

As far I can see, this is as close as Alex got to making such a claim:

The First Minister: The case for hard-pressed taxpayers' cash might have been better made in respect of Northern Rock. The £100 billion to which Wendy Alexander referred is a liquidity availability—the £100 billion that the Bank of England made available on Friday. Would that it had been made available a week earlier—we might not be in the situation that we are now in.

There we have it. No mention of an independent Scotland. Indeed the mention of the Bank of England surely scuppers the suggestion that it's a solely Scottish solution being proferred.

The First Minister was merely putting forward the valid suggestion that Central Bank credit could have been extended to ease HBOS' through a troubling period, not dissimilar to action taken by Governments around the world. By all means disagree with the suggestion but do not populate a myth by putting words in Salmond's mouth.

Perhaps this shows that Labour is competing in the media battle or perhaps it shows that newspapers need to employ a higher calibre of scribe, but when you can no longer believe what is printed in the supposedly independent press you have to think we have reached a worrying low.

Brown trousers time

No time to blog much of late as I have almost literally been working in some manner (here and in Dublin) each waking moment from Friday morning to now.

Thankfully my workload is unrelated to the overall credit crunch problems but one can't help but notice that, given the confidence-shattering nationalisation of Bradford & Bingley, the seemingly ineffectual $700bn US bailout and a slide in the RBS shares of 17% so far today; we are getting worryingly close to 'brown trousers' time for Scotland's biggest bank.

As has been said on here before, to lose one bank would be unfortunate, to lose two would just careless.

The SNP and Qatar

I read with initial amazement the plans that the cash-strapped Scottish Government are to meet with Qatari representatives to possibly finance future public projects. Surely Scottish companies getting rich off PFI is preferable to foreign companies getting rich off an equivalent structure?

But then the penny dropped: The public are already miffed about paying so much for existing PFI contracts, they'll be just as miffed that countries have these 'oil funds' that can be used to pay for Forth Road bridges and the like; so why not feed Scotland's imagination that the perfect solution is to have our own oil fund that can be used to build schools and hospitals and, most crucially, fund the infrastrucure that is required to bring in the Renewables Revolution that will see Scotland be a leading player in the exciting energy market of the future.

I suspect the overall costs for the Qatari PFI scheme will merely amount to a few return flights out to the Middle East. The gains, for the SNP at least, will be tremendous.

Financial banking crisis - A prediction

Given that my prediction that RBS shares would go through the roof soon after they hit the £1.50 level a few weeks ago is annoyingly* about to come good on Monday morning, I thought I would try again with seeing into the future.

The $700bn bail-out plan from the US Treasury will make barely a dent in the current bout of confusion in the world markets. There will initially be a huge leap in stocks for a few days, maybe even a week, the traders will cash in at this point and the jitters will kick in not long after that.

A very poor return for such a huge amount of money if you ask me.

There's no quick fix to this, we're looking at a 2 or 3 year recovery period. You can't rip a plaster off a broken bone and think everything's magically healed again.

*"Annoyingly" because I never did get around to finding the courage to buy shares at that bargain price.

Poll Score Draw

I know they say a win's a win but when you beat your rivals by a mere 1% in a poll you have to think yourself lucky to have the headline "poll boosts Prime Minister's fightback" (in the Sunday Telegraph of all places) and news channels proclaiming you are favoured to lead the economy.

Fair play though, Team Labour have done well to play their strongest suit to maximum advantage and given the SNP won the Holyrood elections by 47 votes I'm not going to say too much against slender wins.

The Economy to one side, with Labour now having two polls that have halved the lead the Tories enjoyed over the summer, it is beginning to feel that it is 'game on' again.

That said, who was the last Prime Minister to half the lead of his Opposition rivals lead on the back of a competent Conference speech? John Major in 1996.

I'll say no more....

Damned if you do....

I don't know, what is a Prime Minister to do?

He flies over to America, the greatest British Chancellor ever (apparently), presumably perfectly placed to give advice on these difficult financial times and yet Treasury chief Hank Paulson doesn't have time to sit down with poor Gordon even for 5 minutes.

Meanwhile, back home, Lindsay Roy has called out for Brown to come home to Fife to campaign in advance of the upcoming by-election meaning that the Prime Minister will look scared if he doesn't go to Glenrothes and like he was dragged there if he does.

The question is, is it really in the best interests of the Labour party for Gordon to campaign in Glenrothes? I guess our Prime Minister is still dithering/thinking that through...

Passing the buck

I won't go as far as to say it's hypocrisy but there's certainly more than a whiff of ignorance surrounding the objections from some in the US (and here in the UK) that the Government is bailing out the bankers who have apparently been too greedy in the way they do business.

It strikes me that the Government and the public are more than a little bit culpable for getting us into this financial mess.

Large swathes of the population have borrowed more than they can afford and the Government (that we democratically voted for) has let things get out of control, either knowingly or incompetently.

Living in a free market society means that bankers should absolutely take advantage of any favourable conditions that lie before them. It seems to me that between our optimistic mortgages and accepting a laissez-faire Government, we laid out the red carpet for all this 'credit crunch' pain and we should be just as responsible for the City for picking up the bill.

Knowing your limits

I've always enjoyed the word stoic.

I still don't really know how to say it, I often get mixed up and say a rather French "stwah", but not only does it look rather lovely, it has a wonderful meaning also:

"one who is indifferent and free from passion"

It may say a lot about your own personality if you see such characteristics as a positive or a negative. For me, I see the existence of such traits in a person as a strength, not least in our politicians.

To be able to approach a situation dispassionately, calmly disseminate the key factors and then act or comment accordingly is something we expect of our leaders, regardless of whether the question is post office closures or global terrorism.

Sadly, these same leaders are merely human and passions can all too often be hard to control.

And so it was this week with HBOS running into spectacular bother. The disappointment, confusion and passion has been palpable from all quarters of Scottish society since last Wednesday. It's pretty clear therefore that when it comes to the imminent demise of HBOS, Scotland is anything but indifferent.

It is this financial issue that has significantly heated the hitherto simmering cool of the SNP. Indeed, one can see the rising of temperatures in Alex Salmond's comments on the matter, wildly swinging from suggesting an independent Scotland would have pumped £100m from an imaginary Central Bank one day to apparently grossing that figure up 1000-fold to £100bn another. A suggestion that, if made by the First Minister, Salmond is rightly getting savaged for in the press.

And it should have been so easy for the SNP. They've successfully wooed the business sector, Alex Salmond's career with RBS makes him more trusted on economic matters, Iain Gray had looked a little silly in saying a banking career was elitist and people appreciated that Alex's hands were tied on the matter given the devolved settlement so the SNP could have made some small political gains out of the affair and moved on without any traction.

Sadly their tartan rhetoric on the matter has gone too far and there's been something of a scatter-gun approach to what the SNP would have done to save a bank that has long been expected to struggle in this dangerous 'credit crunch' environment.

It's ok to lose your cool if someone has insulted your family, it's ok to lose your cool in the sporting arena and it's ok to lose your cool if you're watching TV and noone's bothering you. But if you're aspiring to take Scotland's relatively stable economy out of the United Kingdom and into the unknown atmosphere of an independent Scotland, the last thing you can be is reckless with your words and allowing emotions to rule your head.

This week the SNP have been less than stoic in their dealing of the fallout from HBOS and, irrespective of the mitigating circumstances given the unfortunate demise of Scotland's oldest bank, I fear the public at large will have taken a rather dim view of the SNP's handling of the affair.

Glenrothes - Lindsay Roy's way with words....

Ok, let me first say that I think Labour have picked a very good candidate in Lindsay Roy. If the SNP do win the seat, as expected, it will be in spite of the former headmaster and not because of him.

That said, I rather enjoyed this quote from Labour's man in Glenrothes:

"This notion that he (Gordon Brown) is dithering is wrong. He simply gives himself time to think things through.”


Ok, so the old lady who takes an age to get on the bus isn't dithering, she's just merely thinking things through? Or the spotty teenager hesitantly approaching a girl to ask her out isn't dithering either? Or the Prime Minister who led us a merry dance on whether there would be a snap election or not last year?

As I say, Lindsay Roy seems a cracking choice by Labour, but I still hope there's similar pearls of wisdom in the future from the good man...

Brown's babes

Well, if you thought Gordon having tea and scones (twice) with Maggie Thatcher was bad, I guess you might want to look away now.

Yes, that delightful creature of the left, Sarah Palin, has been posing with Mrs Gordon Brown for charity.

It seems Sarah Palin's image as Wicked Witch of the West (Alaska) for some is somewhat ironic as footage of her being blessed against witchcraft has surfaced. Honestly, I don't think people have dug so deeply into the vaults of the internet to find muck so much since Paris Hilton 'released' her porn video.

Anyway, as much as I disapprove of the witchhunt (literally in this case) surrounding Sarah Palin, I can't exactly say she's my kind of politician so I'm somewhat put off by this PR move from Team Brown.

Maybe Gordon is hedging his bets though with what quarters of the public he can win over by the ladies he associates himself with on his American trip:

Mr Brown, who also took the supermodel Elle Macpherson and Sarah Ferguson, the Duchess of York, with him to New York, is due to discuss the global credit crisis with Wall Street hedge fund chiefs.

And there was me going to ask Elle if she fancied a trip up to Skye this weekend but I guess she's busy.

While I'm on it, do you think the Prime Minister originally planned this trip to the States to be out of the country in case his conference speech didn't go down so well? Perhaps it backfired as he could have compounded his successful past few days with some positive domestic policy chat here in the UK over the next few days. It would have been interesting to see how that might have gone.

So I never thought I'd say this.... Missing you already Gordo....!

Post-Conference Poll

A YouGov poll for the Sun, post-Labour conference:

Conservatives - 41% (down 3)
Labour - 31% (up 7)
Lib Dems - 16% (down 4)


Three points really jump out of this for a start:

Labour have done well. Gordon has taken the heat out of a leadership debate and he'll be focussed on building on that 7% jump rather than slapping down rebels. It remains to be seen whether the rest of his party will go with him on that course.

The Conservatives have their conference coming up. They will be simply hoping to have a successful weekend and open up that 20 point gap that they've enjoyed for the past few months. They'll be feeling a little pressure to perform and stay united but probably not in any signifcant way at this stage.

The Lib Dems are flatlining. They've had their Conference, they should be enjoying something of a honeymoon period and yet they are way off the pace at 16%. The future does not look good for the Lib Dems at all.

HBOS - A question...

The business world are beginning to queue up to raise concerns over the Lloyds TSB takeover of HBOS. Indeed, many of those are even suggesting the Bank of Scotland could survive alone.

Those business heavyweights include:

Alex von Ungern-Sternberg - former group Treasurer of Deutsche Bank
Sir Donald Mackay, the chairman of the Scottish Mortgage Trust
Sir George Mathewson, a former chief executive of the Royal Bank of Scotland;
Sir Peter Burt, a former governor and chief executive of Bank of Scotland
Keith Skeoch, the chief executive of Standard Life Investments
David Alexander, the owner of Edinburgh-based property firm DJ Alexander.

And yet, when Alex Salmond dares to suggest that Bank of Scotland could survive on its own he is slammed by Opposition politicians.

My question however is this: Has the proposed Lloyds takeover given HBOS some required breathing space to get its share price up and its feet back on the ground? Is the game necessarily over? Or am I being somewhat pathetically romantic in wanting Scotland's oldest bank to keep going?

With new rules brought forward to reduce short-selling and increased liquidity being brought into the market on a near-daily basis, not least the $700bn on its way from the US, I can't help but think there's a chance. Particularly if HBOS' toxic exposures are significantly wrapped up in that £700bn of bad assets that will soon be taken out of play by Hank Paulson of the US Treasury.

If it is possible for the bank to continue and jobs to be saved then I for one hope that our politicians can raise their eyes above the Holyrood and Westminster parapet and see to it that HBOS, or BOS even, is given a fair chance to trade its way out of trouble.

Hitting les miserables where it hurts

Seriously, could they not have kept this one a secret? Surely between the scientists and the journalists someone could have realised that this is just kicking people when they are down.

Apparently, taking anti-depressants is bad for your sperm.

So if you're male and miserable with the world, at least you can comfort yourself with the fact that you have less chance of putting any offspring through the same misery for 80-odd years.

More poll joy for the SNP

A quite startling YouGov poll in the Daily Express today (courtesy of Scottish Tory Boy)

SNP - 34%
Conservatives - 24%
Labour 24%
Lib Dem - 17%

I make it this gives a breakdown in seats of:

SNP - 30!
Tory - 11
Labour - 9
Lib Dem - 9

Nothing short of spanking I'm sure you'll agree. It goes to show how good this poll is for the SNP that not only would the SNP take the much-discussed Paisley North, they'd take Dougie Alexander's Paisley South too.

Here's the seat breakdown:

Tory
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
Argyll & Bute
Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock
Dumfries & Galloway
East Renfrewshire
Edinburgh South West
Edinburgh South
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk
Stirling


SNP
Aberdeen North
Angus
Banff & Buchan
Lanark & Hamilton East
Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East
Central Ayrshire
West Dunbartonshire
Dundee East
Dundee West
Dunfermline and West Fife
East Kilbride, Strathaven & Lesmahagow
East Lothian
Edinburgh East
Linlithgow and East Falkirk
Falkirk
Glenrothes
Glasgow Central
Glasgow North
Glasgow North East
Inverclyde
Kilmarnock & Loudoun
Livingston
Midlothian
Moray
Ochil & South Perthshire
Paisley & Renfrewshire North
Paisley & Renfrewshire South
Perth & North Perthshire
Na h-Eileanan an Iar
North Ayrshire & Arran


Lib Dem
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Edinburgh North & Leith
Edinburgh West
North East Fife
Gordon
Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey
Orkney & Shetland
Ross, Skye & Lochaber
East Dunbartonshire



Labour
Airdrie & Shotts
Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill
Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath
Glasgow North West
Glasgow South
Glasgow South West
Rutherglen & Hamilton West
Glasgow East
Motherwell & Wishaw

Who says Nuclear Energy doesn't pay?

Consideration of British Energy deal = £12.4bn

36% Gov't stake = £4.464bn

Barnett Formula consequential = 10.23% of £4.464bn = £457m


Oh well, that's the rest of the Edinburgh trams paid for then. What's that? What do you mean, no? Am I missing something…..?

Girls, girls, girls!

Two stories from the Reform Scotland daily news digest:

Girls out perform boys: Figures produced by the SQA show that girls still outperform boys at every stage of the school exam process. (Scotsman page 15)

Labour candidates: Ross Lydall in the Scotsman (page 24) comments that local Labour party chiefs want candidates to be a ‘safe pair of hands’ at the next election which could make it difficult for more female candidates to be selected.


It makes you wonder how girls stuff it all up between school and professional politics. Or maybe Labour just end up with the stupid ones....

The pride before the fall?

Per The Herald:

Mr Kane, who also held separate meetings with opposition party leaders yesterday, said his meeting with Mr Salmond was "excellent", adding: "It is very early on in the process but we thought it was important for us to listen to the issues and concerns of senior politicians and the First Minister in particular."

A ringing endorsement from Archie Kane is great but Alex Salmond has to be very careful. I'm sure the First Minister has already raised quite a few eyebrows by refusing to debate with anyone he deems too junior than himself. Further instances, similar to this pointed refusal to allow the likes of Iain Gray in the room during his own discussions with the business elite, will soon be seen as petty and haughty.

When it comes to something as important as the HBOS question, one has to conclude that two separate debates are not necessarily better than one.

Ruth Kelly

Apparently, according to the BBC, 'we' have known that Ruth Kelly was going to choose to step down for weeks now.

So, whether her reason was genuinely to spend more time with her kids or jumping to save herself a pushing in Brown's upcoming reshuffle, it really doesn't make much of a news story if you ask me.

The BBC are wasting a lot of hot air analysing it to death nonetheless.

Die Welle (The Wave)

I went to see The Wave last night, a film based on the true story of a High School study into Autocracy and Fascism that got out of control.

The film focusses on human psychologies and individual behaviors that contribute to collective movements. In unpeeling the emotional layers and contradictions of his characters (the need to belong, to be empowered, to escape social distinctions), Gansel offers a humanistic perspective on the terrifying irony that people may welcome the very things they denounce.

It was a good film, not brilliant, but mostly I'm just glad that such a scenario could never happen here.

Anyway, I'd better go, Herr Salmond sent some raffle tickets round yesterday in advance of our annual gathering so I'm going to try to sell some to the non-believers before work starts.

*Salutes*

Glenrothes - Schoolboy Error

It's becoming increasingly clear that the majority view is that Gordon Brown will enjoy a momentary spike in his popularity this week on the back of a good speech at the Manchester conference.

I know hindsight is 20/20 but has Gordon made a schoolboy error by not having some foresight and calling the Glenrothes by-election for this Thursday?

As it stands, with a scheduled election date of 6th November, the Tories and the SNP will both have the opportunity to say their piece at their own conferences and keep Labour on the rack before the Fife constituency goes to the polls.

With the Labour candidate Lindsay Roy a headmaster, he'll be all too aware of schoolboy errors and this, one has to think, may very well be one of them.

Gordon's not finished just yet

It was a year ago, between the Tory and Labour conferences that the tables turned for Gordon Brown and the slope grew incredibly slippery.

Now that I've chewed over his speech, I believe, somewhat ironically, this will be the week the fightback begins.

My reasons?

(1) That "no time for a novice" line is brilliant. Gordon Brown isn't going to win the accolades for best Prime Minister ever but selling the message that David Cameron isn't up to the job should go down well. The bonus of getting to slap down David Miliband with the same messager doesn't hurt either.

(2) He's moved past the 10p tax debacle. It was clever of Gordon to start with this and to show his regret for the affair. I suspect the public will get over it soon too.

(3) The economy. I personally think there's a flaw in the argument that the person who got us into the 'credit crunch' mess is the person to get us out of it but compared to George Osbourne and David Cameron, I would much rather have Gordon Brown looking after the Treasury.

(4) Petrol prices have calmed down again. I think high petrol prices need to be high to wean ourselves off the stuff and into renewables but they should be just about low enough that they won't be an issue for the next year.

I don't see David Cameron bringing out too many policies at the Tory conference. And if the public eventually correctly see that 'Dave' is the wannabe Emperor with no clothes, then I honestly think Gordon's troubles could disappear just as quickly as they arose.

Early days, but if I was Gordon, I'd be sleeping a little bit easier tonight.

EDIT: Seems a bit formal to shake your wife's hand at the end of a speech, no? Perhaps Gordon didn't want to make the mistake that Al Gore made given he's trying to win over Tories.

Also, apparently Gordon's standing ovation was 4 minutes long. Does that make him half the man of Iain Duncan Smith?

Gordon Brown's Speech - Deja Vu

Ok, despite my initial excitement, it seems today's speech is just more of the same from Gordon Brown.

I've just heard Gordon is talking about how the NHS saved his eyesight when he was injured playing rugby.

I'm sure I heard that last year, no?

I daresay the Labour masses were looking for something a bit more than a reheated speech.

High points, for me:

Gordon saying his children "aren't props, they're people", a clear dig at David Cameron who is too focussed on PR.

Free check-ups for over 40s is a good policy, and a new one as far as I'm aware.

Being introduced by his wife was a very nice move. I just hope Sarah wasn't strong-armed into it!



Still, 44 days and counting.....

Has Gordon gone and done it after all....?

Due to a well-timed coffee break I managed to catch a snippet of Gordon's speech (albeit with no audio and subtitles).

There seemed to be a real energy to the room and there's no doubt Gordon is giving it some welly. I strongly suspect, if that zeal is representative of the speech at large, that Gordon may well get the Tory poll lead down to the single figures this week.

Just a shame for Labour that the Tories are up next and have the last word....

Gordon Brown - 44 days later

Well, thanks to The Herald, we have a bit of a snippet of what's to come in Gordon's speech.

Based on this, and on gut feeling, I am sure it will all be an anti-climax. Does anyone deliver the speech of their lives when that is what is expected? Surely great speeches come when noone sees it coming?

No, David Miliband and Jack Straw have put their daggers in their drawers and they'll clap along with a mischievous twinkle in their eyes this afternoon. The rebels who have some restraint and haven't been smoked out will similarly bide their time.

Today is not 'the day'. No, that is 44 days off yet. Gordon Brown has that long to salvage his leadership.

In 44 days, Labour need to win the Glenrothes by-election. Otherwise David 'Heseltine' Miliband will make his move and Gordon will simply have run out of chances and he will quickly be run out of office.

As for today's speech? It's a minor footnote in Gordon's history and another victory for the over-excited media that so many are whipped into a frenzy about it.

The most interesting part will be how long people can be bothered to clap for in that painfully hypocritical way.

Old Green vs New Greens

There seems to be a lot of action going on at the Scottish Green Party.

Robin Harper steps down as leader, Patrick Harvie steps up as co-convener, councillor Alison Johnstone steps down as co-convener.

I know they are a small party, but is it possible that there is a split between the old Green way of things and the "new Green" agenda? Harpites vs Harvites?

It's one of the worst kept secrets in Holyrood that Robin Harper and Patrick Harvie can't stand each other after all.....

Gordon Brown's Speech

Ok, how about a bit of political betting for Gordon Brown's speech, due later today at the Labour Conference:

I'll offer 10-1 that he uses the following line in the first few minutes:

Blairites? Brownites? You're all a shower of gobshites if you ask me.

I'll offer 5-1 that Gordon calls David Miliband a pipsqueak. Or worse.

I'll offer 20-1 that there is something along the following lines:

"Alastair Darling? What is your problem by the way? It's not bloody difficult. I had 10 years of sustainable growth when I was the Chancellor of the Exchequer, you're in the door 5 minutes and the whole thing goes belly up"

I'll offer 30-1 that he mentions Ewan Gray, the new leader of PMTs in Scotland.

And I'll offer 40-1 that Gordon closes his speech with a painfully awkward breakdown a bit like:

I have two young boys and a beautiful wife. Do you know what it's like to come home, look them in the eye and say I'm 20 points behind a squirt like Cameron? That Harriet Harman is trying to take my job? That Gordon Bloody Prentice is calling me out!?

Beanscene, Fifi and Ally

Great news today, Fifi and Ally have bought over the Beanscene brand ensuring the four-fold success that (1) the brand stays within Scottish ownership, (2) Beanscene will retain its rather funky, independent approach to coffee serving, (3) 130 jobs are saved and (4) Kezia Dugdale will not have her Sunday morning tradition affected.

Mind you, someone had better get in touch with Fiona or Alison and make sure they plan on recycling their milk cartons...!

And, also, having been in their Princes Square shop and witnessing the frightening £50 price tag on a child's bib, I just hope the price of an Americano isn't about to go through the roof....

A Westminster Reshuffle

It seems there's a reshuffle on the cards for the UK Government. Gordon Brown will pull himself deeper and deeper into the bunker by getting rid of the Blairites and sticking to a strictly Brownite team.

We can probably expect a Cabinet made up of Gordon Brown, Ed Balls, Yvette Cooper, Douglas Alexander, Victor Blanks (Lloyds chief), Alan Sugar and JK Rowling.

Those days where Gordon wanted Lib Dems in his Cabinet seem a long, long way off now...

The Lib Dem free-for-all

Remember 2005? Those halcyon days when those bright ginger hairs on Charles Kennedy's head bobbed through crowded streets and his voice of reason on all things Iraq-related stood in stark contrast to that of Tony Blair's and Michael Howard's. My memory from that contest was that there were 3 parties to choose from and the SNP was, sadly, not one of them.

It's tantamount to how different the next general election is going to be that the SNP are now the front-runners to pick up the Scottish votes and the UK Lib Dems are more irrelevant north of the border by the day.

No longer in Holyrood coalition, no longer with a Scottish leader and no longer with any coherent policies to campaign on, they are rudderless and aimless at best. With Vince Cable as leader they might have got somewhere, the Cameron-lite Nick Clegg just isn't going to cut it up here.

The Lib Dem share of the vote in Scotland is down to 13% from a 23% share of the vote in the 2005 general election. The standard rebuttal from the Lib Dems is that they always get a bounce during elections, a rebuttal which is utter poppycock. The Lib Dems got 23% of the share in 2005 and looking at polling figures for 2003 and 2004 it is clear they averaged around 23% throughout these years, indeed the average was probably even higher than that. Let's be clear, the Lib Dems are facing a hiding to nothing next time around.

And don't they know it? After all, it seems the Lib Dem tactic for this election is to tightly defend a few key seats and hesitantly go after a couple of others they could potentially snatch if they channel their resources into them and get lucky. The Lib Dems have accepted they will have far fewer Scottish seats after the next election than the 11 they won in 2005.

So what are the seats that the Lib Dems will be targetting? And what will that mean for the Lib Dem vote in other constituencies if there's precious little campaigning there? A complete collapse?

Well, I know for sure that Edinburgh North and Leith is in the Lib Dem sights, despite the need to also cling on to nearby Edinburgh West and have a pop at Edinburgh South. They will try to defend Aberdeenshire West in the face of a Tory and SNP attack. Similarly, Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross will be defended, as will Gordon.

Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk will be a battleground for the Lib Dems as they try to hold on for Michael Moore's benefit. We know this for sure thanks to Robert Brown's errant email. Jeremy Purvis, of course, will be helping out by providing tea. Lovely chap that Jeremy.

Abandoned seats the Lib Dems currently hold will be Dunfermline and West Fife, Argyll and Bute and perhaps even East Dunbartonshire. Danny Alexander up in Inverness may also be left out in the cold as he faces a very tough challenge from the SNP and Labour.

Menzies Campbell and Charlie Kennedy should be able to hold on easily enough without any extra support, unless the great men choose to retire of course.

So with so few members, precious little money and even a suggestion the party could go bust, it will be a tight campaign indeed for the Lib Dems whenever the election is called.

My suspicion is that their lack of resources will play right into the SNP's hands and rather than tactical voting leading to further ballots cast for the Nationalists, it will simply be down to not enough Lib Dem activists getting their vote and their message out.

With Labour infighting set to continue, the Lib Dems retreating from view and the Tories still unable to cast off the 'nasty party' tag, the SNP are quite simply going to sweep the board.

Labour Conference - Theme Song

I have just learned that the theme song for Labour conference is Tammy Wynette's Stand By Your Man.

That means the sight of a packed Labour hall singing along to that is going to be must-watch TV moment of the year. If you can bear to see it through your fingers that is...

Iain Gray's Conference Speech

A somewhat misleading title I'm afraid as I've not actually seen it but I've been told there was a delightfully awkward moment.

Iain Gray had just finished talking about his "job in Scotland" etc but at the end of the speech the chair pointedly wished him the best as leader of the MSP group at Holyrood.

Slapped down by the Westminster group again. With all this abuse from Team Brown, it won't be long before Gray looks more black and blue.

At least Labour are showing their true colours for all to see...

Glenrothes - Labour give up 6 weeks early

Is this some sort of trick? Are Labour trying to pretend they've given up on Glenrothes to stop SNP activists from campaigning? Are Labour and Brown secretly going to give it the best of British by having their PM ride into town at the last minute like some sort of sullen superhero?

Sadly, I doubt it.

Labour have a thumping majority in Glenrothes, they have a highly credible local candidate (last time I'll be saying that) and they have a conference with which they can push policies to campaign on.

People have voted Labour in Glenrothes before, they may well do so again. Labour should be firing on all cylinders and these leadership rebels should be fuelling the fire rather than holding the party back.

I just don't understand it? I don't know what the rot is at the heart of Labour that is so endemic, so stultifying that Labour are recuded to mere luckless, listless rabbits in the headlights.

So if you're going to chuck it before the contest has even begun then fine, but at least give us the date of the Glenrothes byelection and let the rest of us get on with it...

Finally, good news regarding shares

If you had purchased £1,000 of Northern Rock shares one year ago it would now be worth £4.95,

With HBOS, earlier this week your £1,000 of shares would have been worth £16.50,

£1,000 invested in XL Leisure would now be worth less than £5,

If you bought £1000 worth of Tennents Lager one year ago, drank it all, then took the empty cans to an aluminium re-cycling plant, you would get £214.

So based on the above, the best current investment advice is to ignore your portfolio, drink heavily and recycle.

Iain Gray - The most boring man in Scotland?

Well, I was just about to switch off the laptop but Iain Gray popped on BBC News 24 so I thought I would watch it and try to reproduce what was said:

It began with general chat about Gordon who Iain said is "the biggest political figure in my generation"

With regard to the banking crisis, apparently if we "hadn't had Gordon Brown and Alastair Darling taking the action they did then we would have lost the bank completely"

With regard to events north of the border Iain Gray is "clear we're in opposition" and also mentioned closing the book on the 2007 manifesto again.

For the Glenrothes by-election - "I don't know when it's going to be".

And a final thought when asked if Gordon Brown's leadership hinged on the Glenrothes by-election result:

"No I don't (think that), the media and others come up with tests. I think we're going to do well in Glenrothes. I also think Gordon Brown is the right person to lead not just the Labour party but the country as well"

Sparkling stuff hey? So exciting I nearly fell off my chair.

Let me be clear, there's a snowball's chance in hell this man has the charisma to be our First Minister. And, another point, does anyone else think he speaks like his teeth are glued together?

The strangulation of political thought

I never saw Question Time last week but I was made aware of an apparent killer quote that Harriet Harman threw in Alan Duncan's direction regarding the regulation of banks. Harriet intimated that the Tories were completely against regulation despite their current protestations that regulation has some merit.

The quote from Harriet Harman is:

"I’ve got a nice little quote here, “We see no need to continue to regulate the provision of mortgage finance (this is August 2007) as it is the lending institutions rather than the client who are taking the risk…”

Notable is the lack of a mention of who made this quote.

Well, it seems it comes from a policy proposal that was raised by John Redwood, a policy proposal that was rejected by the Tory party at large.

I'm all for debate, I'm all for throwing policies back in other parties faces and I'm all for the Tories getting caught with their pants down live on television but for us to start raking through rejected policy proposals in a bid to get cheap cheers from a crowd who don't really know what's going on is very poor form indeed.

"You can pick any quote out at random" was the reply from Alan Duncan and I am inclined to agree with him.

We live in a country where 20million people tuned into Strictly Come Dancing and X-Factor, the elected leaders of this same country therefore have to be a bit more responsible with what quotes they use if British people's short attention spans mean they won't scratch beneath the surface of the words of those leaders that will be taken at face value.

I mean just look at Harriet Harman's face there after she said her piece, she knows exactly how devious she's just been...

BOS - An equal and opposite reaction

Just a brief post but I couldnt help but be struck by the comparison between the SNP and Scottish Labours reaction to the HBOS/Lloyds debacle.

Alex Neil pulls together the top bankers in Scotland to mastermind an audacious, exciting 6 billion pound buyout of Bank of Scotland.

Iain Gray on the other hand continues his slavish praise for the beleagured Gordon Brown. (it's tantamount to Gray's lack of a media presence that I can't find a weblink for the quote I heard on the radio)

If only Iain Gray hadnt taken such a dim view of the 'elitists' who opted for a life of banking then he might have something more substantial to say.

Still, when the global landmine crisis kicks in then he will really come into his own.

(Apologies for the poor grammar, I€m typing this on a Swedish mac which really isn€t easy)

Has McCain just lost the US election?

The US has bailed out the financial markets bringing stability and confidence to the economy. There's a real sense that this could be the turning point and real action is going to turn the tide.

US Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson said that the programme must be "large enough to have maximum impact" and will involve "a significant investment of taxpayer dollars".

Barack Obama supports the plan.

Gordon Brown has suggested there may be more assistance available.

President Bush said "We must act now to protect economic health from serious risk" and that action "is essential"


John McCain says he wouldn't have bailed out any of the banks and financial institutions.


I can't help but think the Republican candidate looks dangerously isolated on this one. And you can't get this one wrong John. It is the economy, stupid.

Gordon Brown and HBOS

Well, I believe Political Dissuasion has a highly damning point on Gordon Brown's conduct regarding the HBOS/Lloyds deal and I believe (thanks to an anonymous comment) I have another.

It seems Vince Cable has suggested on Andrew Neil's This Week programme that Gordon Brown's Government was planning on bringing in legislation to stop short-selling last week, early enough to save HBOS.

It has been suggested the US stayed Gordon's hand and instead the two Governments brought out the same legislation on the same day. So while HBOS was being ravaged by shortsellers, Gordon Brown held back the legislation that would have saved it.

Has yet more dithering and subservience to the USA from Gordon Brown brought an end to Scotland's oldest bank?

If so, not only should our PM be chased out of office immediately, his conduct surely borders on the criminal.

Friday Blog Love

Well, it's the end of the week again and with so much chat and worry surrounding something as dull as business and banks, I thought I'd change the subject on here to something much more exciting. Elections.

I have a running spreadsheet where I update polling information and (as far as I can) local factors in order to predict what the result of the 2009/2010 election will be.

My first draft of this prediction was based purely on the latest polling data available at the time. Now I have factored in retiring MPs, seats the Lib Dems will focus their resources on and seats where the incumbent MP is part of the constituency furniture so a tank would struggle to oust him or her.

Note that this entire post is based on the YouGov/Sunday Times poll from 5th September:

SNP 34%

Labour 32%

Conservatives 17%

Lib Dem 13%

Green 2%

But, as this is a blog love post, I thought I'd start with a wee intro based on fellow bloggers out there.

__________________________________________________________________

The most fascinating of these 'blog seats' for me is Gordon, a contest between Richard Thomson (SNP and of Scots and Independent fame) and Malcolm Bruce (ex-leader of the Scottish Lib Dems and MP for the area since 1923)

Gordon is, of course, the Holyrood seat that Alex Salmond won on his way to becoming First Minister.

For the 2010 contest, I currently make it there'll be a 127 seat win for Malcolm Bruce but only having given the man a 20% bump for local popularity. I have prudently not given any bump for Richard which, arguably, I could do given the Salmond factor.

So basically this one is on a knife-edge and will no doubt mark one of the real moments of drama whenever the general election comes around.

Malcolm Bruce - 13,793 votes

Richard Thomson - 13,665 votes

Tory - 8,422 votes

Lib Dem - 7,394 votes

___________________________________________________________________

Bizarrely, I have home interest in two of the 'blog seats'. Born in Kirkintilloch but now in Leith I have good reason to give an extra oomph of cheer to Julie Hepburn and Calum Cashley, candidates for these areas respectively.

It is something of a mixed bag for these SNP PPCs.

Julie Hepburn I have down for a win in the constiuency of Cumbernauld, Kilsyth and Kirkintilloch East. As the Labour MP Rosemary McKenna is stepping down and a fresh face will be contesting for the red corner, I have applied a 10% discount on the number of votes won by Labour, as I have done for all constituencies where an MP is retiring.

Julie Hepburn - 16,729 votes

Labour - 15,005 votes

Lib Dem - 3,342 votes

Tory - 2,919 votes

For Mr Cashley, I just don't see the massive Mark Lazarowicz's majority over the SNP being overturned, even if I will be pounding the streets on Calum and the party's behalf. Slashed yes but not wiped out. The Lib Dems I have given a 20% bump as I can already testify they are pushing hard for this seat. I have also given Lazarowicz a 10% penalty for trams and post office hypocrisy. The Tory vote I expect to fade away in favour of tactical voting.

Mark Lazarowicz - 10,815 votes

Kevin Lang - 8,578 votes

Calum Cashley - 8,363 votes

Tory - 6,846 votes

_________________________________________________________________

Stephen Glenn is expected to stand in Linlithgow and Falkirk East for the Liberak Democrats. A very tough contest indeed for the genial Ulsterman and sadly we won't be seeing birthday-boy Stephen grace Westminster in a couple of years time:

Tam Smith (SNP) - 21,022 votes

Michael Connarty (Labour) - 18,211 votes

Tory - 5,891 votes

Stephen Glenn (Lib Dem) - 4,079 votes

_________________________________________________________________

Osama Saeed is due to stand in Glasgow Central and, with Mohammed Sarwar standing down, I rate his chances. Indeed, I have given the Labour candidate a 10% discount for the retiring MP and I've given Osama Saeed a 10% bump given his being a well known figure in the area and, arguably, will capitalise on the large ethnic population in that part of Glasgow.

Labour - 10,016 votes

Osama Saeed - 8,785 votes

Lib Dem - 2,865 votes

Tory - 1,887 votes

(note that Osama Saeed's return to blogging is expected very soon, mark your bookmark now..!)

___________________________________________________________________

Tom Harris, really the only blogging Scottish MP will have no real worries in Glasgow South.

Tom Harris - 14,945 votes

SNP - 9,357 votes

Tory - 5,193 votes

Lib Dem - 4,206 votes

__________________________________________________________________

And there we leave it for Scotland's bloggers. The full results, in this latest draft, are as follows:

POLL

SNP 34%
Labour 32%
Conservatives 17%
Lib Dem 13%
Green 2%

SEATS

SNP - 16

Labour - 32

Lib Dems - 6

Tory - 4

Smallest Winning Majorities

Gordon - 127 votes (Malcolm Bruce - Lib Dem)

Livingston - 247 votes (Labour)

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey - 272 votes (SNP)

Falkirk - 306 votes (Eric Joyce - Labour)

West Dunbartonshire - 364 votes (John McFall - Labour)

SNP

Aberdeen North

Angus

Argyll and Bute

Banff & Buchan

Cumbernauld, Kilsyth & Kirkintilloch East

Dundee East

Dundee West

Edinburgh East

Linlithgow and East Falkirk

Glenrothes

Inverness, Nairn, Badenoch & Strathspey

Kilmarnock & Loudoun

Moray

Ochil & South Perthshire

Perth & North Perthshire

Na h-Eileanan an Iar

Lib Dem
Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross
Edinburgh West
Gordon
North East Fife
Orkney & Shetland
Ross, Skye & Lochaber

Tory
West Aberdeenshire & Kincardine
Dumfries & Galloway
Dumfriesshire, Clydesdale and Tweeddale
Berwick, Roxburgh & Selkirk

Labour

Aberdeen South

Airdrie & Shotts

Ayr, Carrick and Cumnock

Lanark & Hamilton East

Livingston

Coatbridge, Chryston & Bellshill

Central Ayrshire

Falkirk

Kirkcaldy & Cowdenbeath

Dunfermline and West Fife

East Kilbride

East Dunbartonshire

Strathaven & Lesmahagow

East Lothian

East Renfrewshire

Edinburgh South West

Edinburgh South

Edinburgh North & Leith

Glasgow North West

Glasgow South

Glasgow Central

Glasgow North

Glasgow South West

Rutherglen & Hamilton West

Glasgow East

Glasgow North East

Inverclyde

Midlothian

Motherwell & Wishaw

North Ayrshire & Arran

Paisley & Renfrewshire North

Paisley & Renfrewshire South

Stirling

West Dunbartonshire

Brown and Thatcher - Thanks for nothing

Does this line from Margaret Thatcher sum up the crux of the problem that has led us to this sorry economic state today?

"When I see a man of 25 riding the bus, I see a man who has failed in his life"

Not that Gordon Brown has done much better. Banning shortselling the day after the Bank of Scotland disappears from Scotland's marketplace is not a reason for celebrating. We prefer Governments to be pro-active rather than re-active.
If you shut the stable door once the horse has bolted, then you should be apologising. Not high-fiving each other and patting yourselves on the back.

Personally, I think the lack of humility from Number 10 is shocking, indeed the claim that Gordon is the man to weather us through the storm is breathtaking in its arrogance.

Gordon Brown was the Chancellor for the 10 years preceding this credit crunch. If he didn't see it coming then he was too simple for the position, if he did see it coming and chose not to do anything about it then he is simply criminal.

Uncle Bulgaria

There's a guy who sells the Big Issue down in Leith. I'm not going to pretend I'm all chummy with him or anything but he speaks three languages (English, French, Romanian), seems a decent guy and yet he hasn't the faintest chance of getting work in this country.

The reason, apart from an understandably tatty wardrobe, is that the work permit arrangements for those from Romania and Bulgaria are particularly harsh.

The arrangements, as far as I know, are called the Sectors Based Scheme and basically an employer has to gain a letter of approval for a named employee, that named employee then applies for the work permit with that specific employer and the Romanian or Bulgarian is tied in for 12 months to work in that pre-arranged position.

Now, a lot was made of multi-millionaire Cristiano Ronaldo's claim that he was a 'slave' when playing with Manchester United, a claim that is all the more laughable if it is contrasted with some of the squalid conditions and the oppressive advantage that is taken of people from certain parts of the world seeking a better life here in the UK. We all know the horror stories of people migrating to this country planning on working hard and taking a decent wage back home to support their family but they get stuck in terribly paid jobs or even worse conditions that amount to human trafficking or forced prostitution.

I just wonder if this 12 months of being forced to be with an employer is the most sensible of approaches to the work permit rules. It seems to play into the hands of a type of employer who would know how to take advantage of the lack of flexibility inherent in such a situation.

I believe these rules on the Sectors Based Scheme are due for review in December and, well, I wonder if there's a possibility that this could be an area that could be devolved to Scotland, perhaps even as part of the Calman review. It's always been my opinion that Scotland's approach to immigration is markedly different to that of England's.

Rightly or wrongly we are more happy to open our borders and I personally believe that should be reflected in our laws. There would be one less guy selling the Big Issue down in Leith for a start.

Richard Baker - A man in demand

I've just noticed that I'm simultaneously getting a ridiculous amount of hits in the past 15 minutes from a company called Politics International and also Equality Human Rights.

They are both googling Richard Baker's name a heck of a lot. Richard Baker, for those not yet up to speed, being Scotland's Shadow Cabinet Secretary for Justice. Most hits are landing at this post I wrote earlier in the week.

Further, just by coincidence (or not), there's a hit from Texas from someone who works at Accenture for yet another Google search on Richard Baker.

Bit odd, no?

Then again, Richard Baker paid £520 to Iain Gray to get to where he is today so he deserves a bit of recognition for that kind of outlay.

To lose one bank is unfortunate,

... to lose two would look like carelessness.

I like to think Oscar would approve of my stealing his line, there has certainly been something of the wild about this week, and it's not over yet by a long chalk.

Concerns are already being raised that RBS could be next in line for a messy ending leaving Scotland with zero banks in a week when it started out with two.

I really don't think that will be the case for the following reasons:

- RBS have a more diversified portfolio of interests. Asian markets in particular are proving particularly profitable for the bank and there are far less mortgages on RBS' books.

- RBS were able to raise £12bn in a recent rights issue, HBOS were only able to raise £4bn and even that was with a take-up rate of 8% compared with RBS' 95%. The remaining 92% of HBOS shares were purchased by Morgan Stanley and Dresdner Kleinwort and they must be furious at having paid twice what Lloyds will be buying them for.

- There will be more attention on the "bunch of spivs" that brought HBOS down sooner than it should have. It's less likely they'll be allowed to do it twice.

- HBOS were in the particularly sticky situation of having to repay £150bn of bonds by June next year. As far as the business press are reporting, RBS have no deal to honour of this magnitude in the short term.

- The share price is up 8% today.

No, the good people of RBS know the importance of being solvent. The only brown trousers over at Gogarburn will be those on the occasional staff member with a dodgy choice in menswear.

CyberNats

It was Kezia's great post that initially got me thinking on this specific term and my conclusions are thus: I do absolutely love the word.

I don't have many philosophies in life but one of them is that if you can't squeeze some banter into whatever it is you're doing then you should probably have a long bath*, pack your bags and try something else. And let's be honest, the word CyberNat throws up countless opportunities to inject some banter into any Scottish blogging situation.

Politics seems to be a rather unique field where the humour can be sucked right out of a person if they're not careful. Suddenly there are bizarre priorities in your life. The question of whether a tax should be local or national, or whether we should have congestion charging or a tramline up Leith Walk. Obscure policies take on an importance that is blown out of all proportions and you're left a seething, snarling mess where once a rather charming human once lay.

The word "cybernat" I think can draw a bellowing, bellicose beast from an SNP supporter if they take things too seriously. Foolishly seizing the bait, the unnerved Nat could so easily launch into a stream of tartan bile the likes of which we see on The Scotsman and Herald webpages day in and day out. Indeed, as warned by Two Doctors, this plague is even spreading to Cyber anti Nats.

However, once you get the image in your mind of Nicola Sturgeon stepping into SNP Headquarters at a groggy-eyed 7am, switching on the lights before pouring out a large coffee and then powering up 50 SNP-robots to go about their CyberNat business you'll develop the languid grin that permanently permeates my faces when the word arises.

I don't know if I qualify as a CyberNat if I can spell properly, lay out my argument in a logical manner and the closest I typically get to swearing is to say 'dammit' every now and again but if I do qualify, then that would be simply marvellous.



NB: With thanks to the even more proud CyberNat from whom I 'borrowed' the photo.




* But rather than a bath, maybe try a shower as it uses 10% less water.

Left a bit, right a bit

(*Unashamed SNP tub-thumping post coming up, you've been warned!*)

There's a great comeback in modern-day Politics that can apply in any subject area be it health, education or finance. It is the ideal position when half of your opposition wants you to spend more and the other half wants you to spend less. One side says you're too left wing and the other side says you're too far to the right.

I am beginning to wonder if the SNP planned to sit so snugly in that cosy centre ground or if they just lucked out.

Let's think about it:

While the Tories and Lib Dems are calling for cuts to council tax and local income tax respectively, Labour are bemoaning the savings/cuts that are being made after Swinney's masterstroke in freezing the Council Tax. Tories and Lib Dems say they're spending too much, Labour are saying they're spending too little.

One half of the student attacks on the SNP come from the potential that a small number will have to pay some Local Income Tax and won't be able to buy a 'carry out' from the local off-license. The other half of the student attacks are that the SNP have been too generous in giving away a free education and giving too much to the sponging students. Further is this bizarre attack from Labour that the SNP have reneged on their promise to cancel existing student debt, a proposal that all other parties would vote down anyway.

The SNP have been criticised for talking about independence too much and simultaneously been criticised for the National Conversation not reaching a wide enough audience, not that it's clear how those two go together. Further, the Calman Commission is being pushed as the main discussion piece on Scotland's constitution yet it disregarded independence before it even began.

The Scottish Futures Trust has been rubbished as soaked in unsustainable socialist ideology and also too similar to PFI. It was originally rubbished as amateur and now it's being attacked for paying too much for the high-calibre staff it is bringing onboard.

The SNP have been touted as Tartan Tories, too close to business and yet all parties reflect that boosting the Scottish economy should be our top priority.

I could go on and on and on….

Suffice to say, if the opposition is split down the middle about whether you're right wing or left wing, whether you're spending too much or spending too little, then chances are you don't really have too much to worry about.

And so, as Alex Salmond cancels his plans to go to the Ryder Cup in order to fight for Bank of Scotland's interests here in Edinburgh, one has to think the SNP's popularity and indeed our First Minister's, isn't going to change anytime soon.

Iain Gray has a mighty job on his hands. Indeed, he knows all about a fickle opposition. Stray too far from Gordon Brown and there's a 'split', toe the party line and he's merely a 'Westminster lapdog'. I really don't know how he's going to square that circle aside from everything else on his hands.

It's a tough business this Politics but you have to think you make your own luck in it most of the time.

A Brown for all seasons

I've got it!

Our Prime Minister's survival masterplan in a nutshell:

First he installed Des Browne as Secretary for Scotland (albeit on a part time basis). And now that he's managed to dislodge that pesky Fr David Cairns as under-secretary from his Cabinet he is free to appoint Russell Brown in his place.

So now, when the people, the Labour party or indeed the Cabinet have finally had enough of the PM and the chants of "Brown must go" start up, our Prime Minister can sack Russell and feign ignorance that Britain actually wanted Gordon to clear his desk. A simple case of mistaken identity you see?

This will give PM Brown a few months and he can try the same ruse later when the pressure builds to breaking point again. He can simply sack Des Browne once he sees those placards outside his window "Brown for the chop" / "We're sick of Brown" etc.

Ok, so there's an extra -e on the end but maybe giving the public the sacrtificial lamb of Des Browne will satisfy the baying masses? The dyslexic will be won round for a start. And maybe this is why he's backing off helping kids with spelling at schools...

I don't know, it's a desperate theory but, well, does Gordon realistically have any better ideas?

Let's just make sure of it. If anyone out there is planning a placard, make sure it says "All Browns must go", just to be on the safe side...

HBOS hits SNP for six

With the Stock Market steadying given the news that Lloyds Bank will probably be purchasing HBOS, it is becoming clear as the dust clears on this truly dramatic day who the main loser will be: Alex Salmond and the SNP.

The case for independence mostly rests on the success (or otherwise) of the Scottish economy if we were to go it alone. The hugely lucrative oilfields in the North Sea and the two banking giants of RBS and (H)BOS guaranteed huge Corporation Tax receipts and were the bedrock of many Scots' confidence in their independence aspirations.

There is as yet no detail on the deal that is currently being done but if Lloyds will simply take HBOS mortgages onto its books, fold all of the other income streams into its own existing processes and sell off the Edinburgh HQ then we are seeing £bns of an independent Scotland's annual income disappear before our very eyes in one single day.

A coup for Gordon Brown if he personally brokered the Lloyds deal (as is being reported/spun) and a hammer blow for Alex Salmond's independence plans.

The credit crunch just claimed another victim if you ask me…..

Ostriches may fly

I really need to start listening to Radio Scotland in the mornings. All manner of MSP interviews and political chat is going on on there that I had little knowledge of.

This morning for example there was a Tavish Scott interview and a chat with two Labour activists, and I only listened for 15 minutes.

I've mentioned Tavish's interview already, I can clearly see the Lib Dems are 'stepping up' now Nicol Stephen has stepped down. The once-bearded Shetlander did well. I also happen to think Tavish's distinctive voice is a distinct advantage for the party. Iain Gray has some way to go to find the 'presidential voice'.

For the Labour activists on this morning, it is perhaps a good example of the human mind that I've forgotten the name of the one who made some intelligent and salient points but I do remember Vince Mills who, to be frank, made a bit of a prat of himself.

To be fair, it was only the early exchanges where Vince came over like a bumbling buffoon, like an ostrich with its head buried deep in the sand, but first impressions count in any business.

He was asked his thoughts on the challenge to Gordon Brown's leadership and his reply, in the main, was that he didn't understand why these rebels wanted a policy debate if they have no alternative policies. The host gave one of those awkward pitying silences and then said 'well, I think it's a leadership debate they are calling for rather than a policy debate'.

Poor old Vince went on to decry that personalities are irrelevant and it is policies that make the difference.

The unfortunate lad probably still has his head stuck in an undergraduate textbook somewhere and believes, in his ankle-deep wisdom, that a few decent policies will have Gordon striding the UK like the political colossus our PM quite clearly isn't.

Gordon and his supposed psychological flaws have been found wanting, it's nothing personal, he just doesn't have the people, the communication or the presentation skills to do the job, irrespective of what policies he has up his sleeve. David Cairns has understood this for a while and has finally felt moved to say something. Tom Harris admirably respects Cairns' decision but is equally admirably prepared to dig in for the PM.

Iain Gray on the other hand has written off David Cairns' examination of his conscience as "absolutely wrong". No room for debate, no scintilla of flexibility, no openness to another opinion. David Cairns has dared to criticise Gordon Brown and that temerity is seemingly too unpalatable for the increasingly ostrich-like Iain Gray to digest.

I haven't the faintest idea what the best way forward is for Labour but I do know that burying their collective heads in the sand and labelling ex-Ministers "absolutely wrong" for a personal decision is not the direction to go.

Perhaps a party conference where they can have energising and effective free-flowing debates is the answer? Scope for genuine disagreement and real bartering long into the nights? An end to the tightly stage-managed glitzy PR shows where a party is shown to be one shiny happy family when that couldn’t be further from the truth? Something real, something tangible, something eminently watchably human?


Pigs, or indeed ostriches, may fly.

Sobering News - HBOS to crumble

I honestly think HBOS are going to go to the wall today....


56% loss in share price today alone? This is on the back of smaller but significant hits to the share price recently? If it can happen to Lehman Brothers and AIG then why not here in leafy Scotland. Very, very scary.


To be fair, HBOS have the highest Tier 1 ratio of any bank and they have £258bn of savings. I guess it all comes down to just how liquid those savings are. But I suspect there's a very good reason why RBS' rights issue had a 95% take-up and HBOS' was an abysmal 8.3%.


Black Wednesday indeed.



UPDATE It seems they may merge with Lloyds.

Joined Up Thinking

It seems to me that in these choppy economic waters the journalists are struggling to work out what is good news and what is bad news.

Given that consumer inflation has hit 4.7% and is expected to rise to 5%, you would think that the country would be rather glad that there has been relatively low growth in shop sales for the month of August.

Personally, I was celebrating with a small half a glass of shandy over a couple of candles when I heard about that but others are welcome to see it differently.


Incidentally, while we're on the subject of discerning good news from bad, Tavish Scott was on Radio Scotland this morning pushing his idea for a cut in the income tax. I still think the voters won't trust it, as indeed was found to be the case in Lib Dem focus groups, but I enjoyed Tavish's line which went something like:

"Scottish families are having to make savings up and down the country, I think it's fair that the Scottish Government should do the same"

Pretty catchy and well delivered I have to say.

Rough Justice

Well, since Scottish Unionist is such a fan of tidbits, I thought I'd give him another one:

Apparently Kenny MacAskill was spotted creasing himself with laughter at the news that he will be going up against Labour's Richard Baker in the Justice brief.

I have no knowledge of Richard Baker so I can't explain why this is so funny. Does anyone have any ideas?

Baillie on the Rocks

It seems I may have spoken too soon of Iain's inclusiveness as Labour stalwart Jackie Baillie is without a job in Iain Gray's new team (thanks to Margo Channing for pointing that out in an earlier post).

I am not up on my Labour divisions but I do know that Iain Gray was at a public gathering recently, a gathering where Susan Deacon was also in attendance, and they didn't exchange a single word over the course of the few hours. Indeed Iain didn't speak to any of the Labour members who were known to be present.

A bit odd perhaps given there was a leadership election just around the corner?

Anyway, Jackie Baillie was always one of Susan Deacon's bestest mates back in the day so perhaps there's something to read into that.

Alternatively, there is another reason, neatly summed up by this little Labour tidbit:

A senior Labour MSP kindly informed Jackie Baillie (then chief whipping business secretary or whatever the title is) that he/she would be missing a vote at Holyrood. The reason given was that a meeting with the Prime Minister had already been arranged for the same time slot.

Jackie's response was merely: "We'll see".

Perhaps Iain has decided that Ms Baillie had gotten too big for her boots?

David Cairns has resigned

For the first time, I really think it's Game Over for Gordon Brown.

It used to be months rather than years he had in the job, then it was potentially weeks rather than months. I now think he may even have days left. This simply can't continue and he can't sack everyone.

Fr Cairns will be the final straw, it's last rites for Gordon Brown now.

PS I do understand that all this pontificating over Gordon's future makes me one of many metaphoric flies around the proverbial jobby but I don't care, this drip-drip-drip of resignations is ferociously addictive. Apparently Caroline Flint is next in line.

Shadow team of all the talents

In 2000, new Labour leader Henry McLeish handed Jack McConnell the 'poisoned chalice' of the education brief in the midst of an SQA crisis and pay disputes with teaching unions.

In 2001, new Labour leader Jack McConnell froze out Jackie Baillie, Sarah Boyack, Wendy Alexander and Susan Deacon amongst others.

In 2007, new Labour leader Wendy Alexander froze out Patricia Ferguson and, arguably, Andy Kerr.

In 2008, new Labour leader Iain Gray has handed top jobs to leadership rivals Cathy Jamieson (Health) and Andy Kerr (Finance).

Say what you like about Iain Gray (and most of us have already) but the man is clearly not petty.

Nothing for Lord George Foulkes though? Disappointing.... ;-)

Kezia has the full list.

Tax doesn't have to be taxing

Per the Financial Times:

Britain’s politicians are promising tax cuts. Pay no attention. Even before the latest hurricane on global financial markets, there was one safe prediction to be made about the next government: whatever its political colour or pre-election promises, it will raise taxes.

To be honest, I'm surprised more hasn't been made of the Scottish Conservatives' surprising tax cut policy and the Scottish Lib Dems' bizarre policy of cutting income tax. I guess with the economic meltdown continuing and Gordon Brown's relentless woes even Iain Gray was shunted to the side of the news agenda more than he deserved to be.

With a recession looming and scarce profits leading to probable redundancies on a large scale, to cut taxes in the current economic climate is irresponsible, even reckless. The top priority has to be getting the economy moving without spiralling inflation and this comes with increased public spending.

We all know that the Tories are for small Government and lower taxation which is fine, they are giving the Scottish public another option on Council Tax and that is perfectly valid. The Lib Dems to be fair have probably gambled that having a somewhat flawed policy, one which they won't need to enact given they are out of coalition, is worth going with as they now have a clear policy to campaign on, something they patently lacked under Nicol Stephen.

The Lib Dems have also glossed over the fact that this policy was tested on the public in focus groups and found wanting so it'll be interesting what this latest trick does to their polling figures. Not that their figures could get much lower, another possible reason for such desperate measures as a tax cut promise.

So, given how far from power each party is, this is all by the by in many ways. The SNP did well to freeze taxes last year and I daresay John Swinney will struggle to achieve that same near-miracle this year.

Much will be made by the Tories and Lib Dems of the SNP and their supposed 'high tax' approach but between farmer Tavish Scott, solicitor Annabel Goldie and the Financial Times, I know whose financial advice I would rather follow.

Glenrothes By-Election - November the 6th

Don't get me wrong, I can see why Gordon Brown is doing it. When Labour lose Glenrothes the Prime Minister needs to have some distance between himself and the result in order to soldier on in his current job.

It just must be so maddeningly frustrating for the Labour activists, for Labour members in the constituency and for Gordon's old chum Lindsay Roy, the candidate himself to not have their Prime Minister riding into the constituency to fight the battle from the front. The self-serving calculated cowardice from Gordon is only serving Alex Salmond and David Cameron as they heap scorn on the embattled PM.

Further to this, the by-election date for the Wallflower Constituency is apparently going to be November 6th, at Gordon's choosing. Not content with making a mockery of the contest so far by delaying the date for as long as possible and by not touching the constituency with a bargepole, Gordon has gone for the blindingly obvious tack of trying to bury the bad news of defeat in with the US election news cycle. The only catch is, to succeed in this charade one needs to employ more subtlety than a low flying cannonball and find a way to stop the great British public from realising what's going on.

The economy is going to hell in a hand-basket, the stock market is up and down like a yo-yo and inflation is putting a real squeeze on paying bills and buying food. Now would be a great time for all parties, all people to get involved and have a massive debate, a freeflowing dialogue of the best way forward for the UK and the platform of Glenrothes could have provided that opportunity.

Unfortunately Gordon Brown's sleekit, hamfisted approach to organising this by-election has put paid to that and although his dithering and ineptitude makes an SNP victory much, much more likely, I still think we're all a little bit poorer as a result.

Playing FTSE with Gordon

The party line being pushed by the ever-decreasing group of Gordon Brown supporters is that Labour's relentless unpopularity stems solely from the ongoing economic turbulence and looming recession.

This rather neat 'post hoc ergo propter hoc' scenario that Labour have plumped for appears rather convenient. Apparently, if we're patient and wait a year for the economy to recover then we'll also see Gordon's polling figures recover. It's clearly a ruse to keep Gordon in his job in the short term, a way for the PM to buy some time to find a way through this latest attempted coup.

This theory is reinforced by the severe delay in the Glenrothes byelection. Seemingly Gordon Brown has decided if he can just avoid that killer blow in the short term with the UK Tories and SNP flying high, a thoroughly demoralised Labour party and a UK economy going through the plughole then he will find a way to weather the storm or, more likely, the storm will weather itself and he can stagger on trying to lead his beloved Britain.

Well, I thought I would put this "it's the stock market's fault" theory to the test.

Below is a graph depicting:

Dark blue - The performance of the stock market relative to its position in June 2007.

Pink - Labour's performance in the polls relative to its position in June.

Yellow - Gordon Brown's performance in the polls regarding the question "Who would make the best Prime Minister?", again with results relative to June 2007.

Light blue - Gordon Brown's personal performance in the polls irrespective of party and rival PM considerations relative to July 2007 (no data for June).

(Note: Figures taken from UK Polling Report and missing entries solely due to relevant polls not being completed for those months.)

The stock market has dropped 20%.

Labour's polling position has dropped 35%.

Prime Minister Gordon Brown's popularity has dropped 51%.

Gordon Brown the politician/person's popularity has dropped 60%.

The rocky stock market may not be helping but these results show that there are much deeper reasons than a wobbly FTSE as to why Gordon Brown is in such a desperately perilous position.

Indeed, putting the FTSE to one side, the fact that Brown's popularity has dropped so much further than Labour's in percentage terms goes to show that a change of leader may well be worth a try.

To an extent I do understand why the calls for Brown to resign are deemed "meaningless agitation" given there is noone waiting in the wings. But as soon as Jack Straw or John Reid or David Milliband or Harriet Harman steps up to the plate and formally challenges Brown, then it is quite clearly all over for the clunking fists.

Shares in Gordon Brown, in his very own bear market, are tumbling fast. And we all know what the responsible course of action in a bear market is. Well, a dozen MPs do at least:

Sell now before more damage is done.

Out with the old, in with the old

The supposedly crucial question that most analysts are asking is "Can Iain Gray tame the big beast Alex Salmond?". Personally I think this is a classic 'Holyrood Bubble' misnomer. The really crucial question is, do Scottish Labour have any fresh talent they can bring to the fore and use to get a new message out?

To be fair, they now have as good a chance as they could hope for to wipe the slate clean, push a new agenda and have a fresher feel to the party.

Iain Gray is, of course, their new leader and that promotion may very well bring out some new qualities from a man who we all know as a rather dull ex-transport secretary (or at least 4% of us do). However, there is scope for that remaining 96% to be won over if Gray can hit the ground running. Jings, even hitting the ground trotting would be a good start.

Similarly in Scottish Labour's favour, not very much is known about deputy Johann Lamont and, consequently, the public will be more likely to sit up and take notice of what she has to say, even if out of mild interest.

We have short attention spans, the British public, we quickly tired of the Michael Howards, the Michael Portillos and the Theresa Mays. The Conservatives only got going once some new faces came to the fore, the David Camerons, the George Osbournes and the Michael Goves. I'm sure they'll prove to be just as inept as the last lost but at least if we don't know that for that sure then we're more likely to give them a run for their money in office.

The same can be said for Scottish Labour. We've heard the same bumping of gums from the same Labour dinosaurs for too long now. Changing the record is actually a good way of putting it.

Iain Gray has a reshuffle conundrum on his hands. He wants Scottish Labour to have a fresh impetus but what can he do with the current crop of Labour MSPs? Give portfolios to the Malcolm Chisholms, the Hugh Henrys and the Rhona Brankins? My goodness, with those same tired voices droning through the ariwaves, we'll be switching over to Can't Cook Won't Cook in a flash.

What ripe, untapped talent is there sitting on the backbenches? The Cathie Craigies, the Helen Eadies and the Frank McAveetys aren't going to do the business. There are apparently a couple of young turks, John Park I believe is one name doing the rounds as a bit of a bright spark, though by all means correct me if I'm wrong on that score.

And further to Iain Gray's problems is the probability of ageing talent limping out of the chamber. Wendy Alexander isn't going to fancy a 3rd / 4th / 5th stint at being an effeective Cabinet member. Tom McCabe and Malcolm Chisholm are similarly looking at the exit doors if the rumours are true.

So where does that leave Iain Gray? He is their best bet as leader but he can't do it alone and, well, if his first move was to appoint the devious and appalling Margaret Curran to a top post it seems it's going to be more of the same from Scottish Labour from here on in.

They say that behind every great man is a great woman. The Gray man just has Curran. And I would say Lord help him but even that didn't work out too well!

PS Do you think The Telegraph did this spelling mistake on purpose? First John McConnell and now Iain Grey. How many people do you think get Alex Salmond's name wrong?