Reporting from Bangkok

Well, I have been in Thailand's capital for two days now and I haven't seen a single bit of trouble. Indeed, the only blood that I've seen shed on these city streets was last night when I hacked off my 4-week traveller's beard.

Given the yellow shirted members of the protesting PAD group are holed up in the 2 main city airports, 15km out of town, I guess I shouldn't be too surprised that life in the city centre seems rather calm.

But with the protesters saying they are fighting "to the death" and the PM refusing to resign, creating a (limited) state of emergency and on the verge of ordering force to remove the protesters, this whole situation simply won't end well at all. They will fight, many will die and then the survivors will negotiate. If both parties were able to see the game out to the end, they would cut to the chase and start negotiations now. Fewer corpses that way which can only be a good thing.

Mind you, according to the Bangkok Post, rumours of a coup are starting to circle, especially given the PM has not heeded the Army Chief's suggestion that he should stand down and call fresh elections. That would be a bloodless end to the stand-off but not without its own set of difficulties given Thailand had a coup a few years ago. These things can get addictive it seems.

All in all, everyone looks a bit silly here. The PM looks powerless sitting holed up in Chiang Mai unable or unwilling to do anything of note and the protesters (all unelected) have brought a country to a standstill, damaging its international reputation, on a mere whim. As for the King, I have not heard one word on the situation from the man. I would have thought he could have had some real influence on the situation and helped resolve it by coming down on one side or the other.

So, my overall thoughts on the matter are that it's all just a little bit sad, and tragedy is probably waiting just around the corner for political activists, policemen and army soldiers.

It almost makes you proud of the political apathy back home.

Could UK recession be an SNP blessing?

There's no getting around it, the financial meltdown has been a huge blow for the SNP of late.

Rightly or wrongly, the public do seem to have decided that Salmond hasn't quite grasped the issue as well as he should have. Personally I think this is an unfair assessment as the global nature of the crisis and the powerlessness of Holyrood to act has meant that it would only ever have been Gordon Brown that could have scored any political points from it. And he has done so, handsomely.

But as well as Brown and Darling have confronted this credit crunch, the looming recession is not only unavoidable, it is going to be long and deep.

As The Economist puts it:

some economists reckon the recession is likely to be grave rather than mild. Capital Economics, for example, is now predicting that GDP will decline by 1.5% next year and then by 1% in 2010, making the recession the worst since the early 1980s. It also fears that the jobless rate will reach 10.5% in 2010, virtually as high as its peak in the early 1990s.

Furthermore, a BBC table for Q3 of 2008 shows that the UK is the wost performing nation in Europe (alongside Germany and Italy) with -0.5% GDP growth for the quarter.

With an independence referendum still expected for 2010 and a possibility that the UK will still be struggling economically while the smaller Eurozone nations may be long passed the worst of their troubles, what are the chances that by then the public mood in Scotland will have turned intensely sour and the SNP's arguments for independence will take a greater hold of the Scottish imagination?

Gordon Brown may privately be enjoying a rare grimacing-smile these days given his current 'good fortune' but could it be Alex Salmond that has the last laugh?

Grey Brown - Smash'N'Grab Election

Well, now that Grey Brown has softened us up with 'tax the rich' policies and a VAT-cut sweetener, could the PM be already planning a surprise election in Spring 2009?

I don't know what the odds currently are for that but I wouldn't be too surprised. The Glenrothes result that must still be giving Gordon goosebumps, a belief that Scotland would back him against Cameron (which I think they would) and a Tory team on the backfoot could be enough to give the PM some rare gumption to go for it.

I know the Labour Party are going through their own credit crunch at the moment but if Gordon thinks this is the best opportunity for Labour to win a 4th term then he will learn from his mistakes of last year and seize the moment decisively.

So I'm calling it, a smash and grab April/May 2009 General Election. Now that really would be the perfect homecoming party for me....!

Gordon Brown - Back in the Game?

Back when Gordon Brown first got those clunking fists on the top job that he had always wanted, I predicted he would make a success of it through a 'grey approach'. A rather dull, workmanlike running of the country being adopted in stark contrast to Cameron's colourful PR angle.

It may have taken a year (and a credit crunch), but I think Gordon has finally staggered onto the winning combination that will give him more than a fighting chance in the next election. Furthermore, on the back of Glenrothes, the eminently sensible policies being considered will be a further twisting of the knife into the SNP's lamentable economic stance of late.

Let's be honest, VAT policies would send anyone to sleep. Once Brown and Darling really get going on how we need to raise income tax to 45% for high earners and reduce VAT to 15% to get the economy going and throws in some intellectual economics theory in there for good measure, the vast majority of us will switch off, assume they know what they're talking about and leave them to it. Cameron's protestations will go largely unheeded and Salmond's room for manoeuvre will be severely restricted with no comparable devolved powers to realistically work with and a decreasing public appetite for full fiscal autonomy controlled by Holyrood while the UK Government unveils its plans.

Certainly, when skies are grey, as they will be for the foreseeable future, Boring Brown will always be a better bet than Disco Dave or Adventurous Alex.

Thought for the Day

Is it just me or is it a bit strange to have tax cuts while increasing borrowing?

Surely we can cut out the middle man and just keep taxes as they are and spend what we've got?

Long live the USA

I read with interest that US dominance is expected to decrease within the next 20 years with challengers such as China, India and Brazil stepping up. Personally, I don't see that being the case.

You're only as rich as your poorest inhabitant and, by and large, the US has brought its entire population along with it during its success in generating wealth. Yes there are severe issues as shown by Medicare deficiencies and New Orleans flood fallouts but comparisons with the 3 countries mentioned above are telling.

China, India and Brazil still have enormous pockets of poverty and plugging these gaps will prove an increasing necessity as their global stars shine brighter. Rapid economic growth will make way for social security systems as developing countries develop consciences, either naturally or by force from within.

Any future growth that America can muster they will have for free. For China, India and Brazil, it comes with a cost that is, as yet, to be factored into the equation.

Time to Jack it in?

Poor Jack, for years people were saying "McConnell must go" and now that he has finally been relieved of his First Minister duties and stepped down as Labour leader you would think the clamour would stop, wouldn't you? Even with this palava about some dodgy Malawi job now kicked into the tall grass by a nervous Prime Minister he is not getting away from those same calls.

The Times recently ran a story that he has one of the worst attendance and voting records in the Parliament. Despite his experience as a former FM he sits on no committees and has missed up to 7 times as many votes as some of his ex-ministerial colleagues.

As far as I can see, there are young, energetic people of all parties and all beliefs who would bust their gut if their dream of being voted into Parliament was to come true. A quick scan of the blogosphere alone shows us this. You'd have to hold them back from getting involved in committees and holding the Government to account.

So, if the Times' story is true, if Jack does not share in this enthusiasm and this vigour for the Parliament, if he's not going to roll his sleeves up and do the work that is expected of him then I guess he should grab his coat and hit the road.

However, it's for the people of Motherwell and Wishaw to decide, the constituency that Jack himself thinks is a pigsty if memory serves correctly. I don't see a pitchfork-wielding revolution taking place through in the Central seat any time soon but we can only live in hope.

Scotland? Where the blazes is that?

One question I am hearing repeatedly while away on my holidays is "Where are you from?". Technically I guess I should say the UK as Scotland isn't a country but I like to do my bit for VisitScotland by saying I'm from the land of the rolling hills and the delightful drizzle.

However, more often than not people have jotted down "Ireland" against my name on hotel forms and travel documents before I put them straight. On countless occasions I have seen the Union Jack with England underneath.

Scotland, I'm afraid, is not on many people's radar in this part of the world.

I honestly can't say it's something I get too hot and bothered about it but it's highly noticeable. I tend to use the analogy that would Swedish people be happy to be called Norwegians? Would Canadians be happy to be called Americans? Kiwis called Aussies? I could go on and on.

So I don't have much of a point other than to let you all know I'm doing my bit to keep Scotland on the Asian globe.

Million Dong Man

Yes, you've had the million dollar man but now we have the million dong man for that's how much my new Vietnamese suit cost. Well, it was actually 1.5 million but what's half a mill between friends.

The truth is, that's only about 60 pounds. 60 pounds for an Italian Cashmere suit, made to measure. So despite the numerous 000s it's something of a bargain. The price tag variation goes to show the wide variation in currency value between countries. On our trip we have agonised over 10,000 Dong tips and yet that's only 40p.

The Asian Financial Crisis of 1997 is one of the main reasons for Asian currencies having values a factor of many thousands less than that of the UK's. Indeed many businesses still deal in both US Dollar and Vietnamese Dong here in case there is a similar crash to that of '97 in the near future.

Evidence of how far off the pace Vietnam is from Western economies has been with us on a daily basis on our travels. Local newspapers advertise jobs for 100,000 dong per day which is the equivalent of 4 British pounds, beer is purchased for as little as 20p and Western tour buses travel alongside local buses on freeways with the same destinations yet with wildy different ticket prices. (Mercifully the tour buses don't travel at the same reckless speeds as the local option.)

Our most personal encounter with the Western currency value clashing so brutally with the Vietnamese currency value came in a humble sampan, a small rowing boat that was powered by an old woman as she navigated us through the Tam Coc region of central Vietnam. The tour was 60,000 Dong. About 2 pounds. The ride lasted 2 hours.

Don't get me wrong, the ride was lovely as it took in some beautiful scenery but there is surely nothing much more discomforting in this world than an old pensioner rowing your rich white bottom around for a couple of hours for a couple of quid, a large slice of which won't even make it into her pocket.

Furthermore, there was a 4th person in the boat, a younger lady who with broken English was trying to sell us Vietnamese knick-knacks for half the duration of the trip.

Despite the Western guilt, the knowledge that money that you wouldn't bat an eyelid over if it dropped out your pocket one day is enough to sustain this lady's family for a month, I have to confess that I didn't buy any of the products.

We did take a lot away from the experience though. Namely what is our duty in this world? Is the West deliberately keeping struggling economies low for their own gains (cheap imports etc)

Also, is it so terrible for people to be paid such low amount of money in such an economy? Will such wages, significantly low on a global scale, mean that the vast majority of Vietnamese have no chance of visiting Scotland while I can visit their country on a whim? Is such a situation fair and equitable? Should I start a campign group? (I guess Make Trade Fair beat me to it though by a few decades though.)

I don't know if aiming for a one-to-ne currency exchange rate across the world is the answer but in the absence of a solution to the inequality in the world I suppose for now I will have to satisfy myself that the next best thing is to travel with a smile, be respectful and keep buying sampan rides and million dong suits where I can.

Pound for pound

As someone who is on the road and needs to regularly exchange GBP Sterling for US Dollars to get by in Vietnam (and later Cambodia and Thailand), I am well aware how painful the exchange rate is at the current time. It was exactly a year ago that I took a trip to the states for a fortnight and enjoyed a 2.05 rate. Now the best I can get on the ground is 1.4. No doubt that by next week 1.4 will actually be quite attractive to me as the UK Economy staggers further into the mire.

So it is with some incredulity that I read the BBC website here in a stunning Vietnamese coastal town (with Mrs TV on Skype, phoning back home). It seems people are trying to suggest that George Osborne is somehow culpable in doing down the pound?

Of course we had this recently when it was Mervyn King, the Governer of the Bank of England, who was apparently responsible for talking about recessions and somehow creating one for the UK off the back of it. As if the Credit Crunch hadn't ever happened.

If the UK Pound sheds a quarter of its value against the dollar and hits an all-time low against the Euro, I expect our leaders to step up and talk about it. I don't want them to do what Labour and the BBC seem to prefer: sticking one's head in the sand and hoping it will all just go away.

Furthermore, the inherent suggestion that hedge fund directors and billionaire businessmen put their money in countries on the back of political attacks by George Osbourne is absurd. And if they did truly believe that the words were damaging to the UK Economy then they wouldn't contribute to making this non-story into a big Sunday splash story and further advertising whatever it was that the Shadow Chancellor has said that bothered them so much in the first place.

Heil Obama

Further to one of my last posts, it transpires that Obama has a bigger fight on his hands to win over some of the American populace.

I received this email from someone in the Christian Right and, despite a mailing list of some 30 addresses, I am certain that not one person will raise an objection the sheer lunacy of the points being made:

"Heil Obama"

When was the last time you saw crowds by the thousands and hundreds of thousands cheering a politician? In my lifetime politicians have not been held in high regard by anyone, regardless of the party. So my first thought is to turn to history. Surely history can show if there were such a time. Scanning the pages of history, many of which are stored in the vaults of my mind because I actually paid attention in history class, I found the time. 1933. The Nazi party, in a time of economic crisis and general discontent for the current government, gained considerable power in the 1930's. In elections held in September of 1930, the Nazis became the second largest political party in Germany. After that election they held 107 seats in the Reichstag (which had around 600 members total). In the spring of 1932 Hitler himself ran for president. He received around 30 percent of the vote, losing to Hindenburg who had 49% of the vote. Still, with over 200 political factions in the Reichstag the unified Nazis were not without power. In the course of the next year, the struggling government in Germany and power struggles in the "democratic" Reichstag led to Hindenburg's decision to make Hitler chancellor of Germany (basically president of the Reichstag) in January 1933 . Hitler wasted no time. It is believed (but not proven) that the Nazis burned down the Reichstag and blamed it on another party ("This recession brought to you by Republicans," sound familiar). The german people bought it. In another election Hitler was able to gain an even stronger hold on the Reichstag, and set out to gain the 2/3 majority needed for him to rewrite the German constitution (Here in the U.S. we do that by putting crazed liberal judges on the supreme court). Hitler's goal was achieved and the rest is history.

Now you may say, "how can you compare Hitler to Obama?" Actually it is not that hard. While I cannot speculate about intrigue and bully tactics (Joe the plumber notwithstanding), there are some interesting connections. It has been made known on fair news stations that Obama has ties with racist anti-semite pastors and religious leaders to an extent which we may never know (or maybe we will). Also, Obama is a socialist whether he admits it or not. His economic plan calls for wealth redistribution and Uncle Sam (or Big Brother if you prefer the name) gets to decide what to do with our money. Oddly enough Hitler was the head of the National SOCIALIST German Workers Party. Hmmm? Both made heavy use of propaganda and slogans in their respective campaigns. "Deutchland Erwacht!" (Germany Awake!) and "Change!" Both wrote dull autobiographies before running for any office or doing anything really worthy of a biography in the first place. (Obama wrote two!!!!) Both Hitler and Obama spoke very well and said very little. All rhetoric, lacking substance. There are other similarities between the two, but unless you have even a shred of ethical sense you cannot understand them. Abortion, euthanasia, and eugenics must all be listed when comparing the two since both are in favor of all three (Although Hitler would not have allowed the master race to abort its young).

The scary thing is this: Obama used the same economic crisis and public anger at the government that Hitler did to gain power. His slogan, "Change," implies that something needs to change and the connection with that need and his opponents' party won not only the presidency for him, but also an even stronger hold on congress for his party. Facts are not important with Americans it seems - only rhetoric. Change to what? From what? The fact that the current financial crisis, which Obama has used to perfection, has more to do with the democrats than republicans, is lost on Americans. They don't care. They are, I am afraid, much like the German citizens of the 1930's. The outcome we will all learn in the years to come.

RBS sheds 3,002 jobs in a fortnight

Yes, 3,000 jobs to be cut as announced today, then there's ex-CEO Fred Goodwin falling on his ball-point pen and, most crucially of all, the end of my contract a couple of weeks ago.

All in all though, the 3,000 job cuts is an eminently sensible move in my eyes, if it is solely related to the Global Banking Markets, a particularly loss-making part of the bank at the current time. It's also an area that can be scaled back to ensure the group goes back to 'core' business which seems to be the unanimous view of how the banking world will be post-Credit Crunch.

So although my own job prospects continue to look decidedly dodgy once the travelling is over, I don't think today's news of worldwide job cuts when the RBS share price is hovering around the 50p mark is really that bad.

Furthermore, I am sure the nightmare scenario for those at the top level of the bank is being bought over, they certainly want to avoid all the Lloyds / Bank of China hullaballoo at the moment. The only takeover discussions ever known regarding RBS occurred a while back when HSBC sized up a move for the bank.

Thankfully nothing materialised then and, if RBS continue making these sensible decisions, then nothing will in the short term future either.

Still, it'd be nice seeing that share price shoot up a little bit!

Obama's Uphill Struggle

I have a friend who lives in what can fairly be described as "bible belt America". The World is shaped by the Bible's Word in this area and voting Republican is automatic.

My friend freely admits she knows very little about politics so I was suprised when this email, sent to numerous people mostly sharing a devout Christian background, landed in my inbox:

I would just like to ask you all to pray for the US Presidential elections. :) If you are in the US please go vote for anyone but Obama. :) And when you pray, please pray that either he won't get in, or that if he does everyone will realize their mistake pretty quick.

(That could be painful, but it would still be nice to see.)

Of course, fresh from the delight of Obama's victory, I couldn't resist a tongue-in-cheek response and I decided to reply to all:

In response to my dear friend's email, and now the contest is over, I would like to ask that everyone gets behind Barack Obama and supports him as President. I strongly believe he can effect great change and achieve positive results not just for America but for the planet as a whole.

(PS It could have been worse, you could have ended up with Hillary!)

And there, I thought, was the end of the matter. But I underestimated the strength of feeling within some others on the email list. I received the following email:

Obama is an antichrist and NEVER will I support a man who is not of God.

This was followed a by a list of bible passages which are utterly irrelevant to the topic of discussion.

Startled, I decided to leave well alone and wondered if I shouldn't have stirred up a hornet's nest on the matter but thankfully the following email made up for it. A thoroughly intelligent and fair assessment of Obama's victory from a Republican. It's a long piece but I think well worth the read:



Jeffry,I generally don't respond to the masses in such a manner but I thought you might like to hear a mildly moderate conservative address the state of the union over here and around the world.

I'm behind my country with 100%; he's the president; I follow the laws. I don't want a lot of social laws and principles changed in one term of office. I will follow him when he's right and question him when he's in the wrong... that's what a democracy must be. Remember this old adage:"Read all the books upon your shelf but do all you thinking for yourself." Our nation is not made up of one party, nor of one man, nor of one event. The past President's failures polarized a great many people to one purpose; elect no one like Bush. Well that's what happened and now we will see how able our nation is to live with it's choice. Many who chose Obama were voting for the "any one else" box on the ballot; not considering any more than the smooth, studied and eloquent speeches formed after the style of the classic southern baptist preacher. Wonderful to listen to in its meter and flow, its emotion and cadence. Lots of meter, little meat, emoting cadence but carrying little credence.The U.S. truly is a blend and because of that it should move with care and moderation, resolute in its cause and virtue. No one party should wield control and take advantage of the emotions stirred by failure and frustration. Consider that this economic crisis has been pending since the last upturn in the 80s; that free trade acts don't help as much as they hurt; that greed is the cause world wide and man's inability to contain his desire to have more, more, more leads to the oppression of people at every level of society throughout the world.

The fear of being mistreated increases as one sees someone else mistreated. This fear can lead to prejudice. There are as many bigots of color in the U.S. as there are white bigots. It's wrong no mater what color you are. Reacting to this election as some kind of freeing step for the world is over reacting. This changes little for others. What is the current condition in South Africa? Look at its recent history. Who is in power now? Isn't the present government just as corrupt as it was before Mandela? Look at Russia; still up to the old tricks. A country can only live through the hearts of its people, remembering right and wrong, following the rule that describes others as being as valuable as ones self. Treating others as you would want to be treated. The heart of man is selfish. Selfishness spawns greed. Greed leads to abuse (of others, of power, of position etc). Abuse brings mistrust,fear and hatred. Maybe this will turn out okay... maybe it will bring the end of the U.S. as a world player. I know one thing because I have seen it before: One party in power is not often good!We shall see...

Not back just yet....!

I don't know, you go away for a week and the President of the US goes from being white to black, interest rates go into freefall, proposed tax increases become tax cuts and most bizarrely of all Labour start winning things!

Anyway, no time for proper blogging as yet but may be a few posts up ahead (in a hostel in Hanoi at the moment, furiously crazy city but in a very good way, and mostly due to the wild nature of the scooter drivers).

For now, thanks for all the wonderful comments in the last post, very much appreciated. I have a travel blog of sorts and if anyone's interested feel free to dip in to it here:

Cheers!

I'll Be Off Then

I'm writing this post from a Pacific Coffee Company in the Wan Chai district of Hong Kong for today marks day 1 of a six month backpacking tour for Mr and Mrs Tactical Voting. Yes, for the election of Obama I'll be in China, for the Glenrothes by-election I'll be in Hanoi and for the Christmas break I'll be in Melbourne.

Needless to say, blogging will slip down the priority list so I don't know if this'll be my last post, whether I'll have a short blogging break or if I'll be back on tomorrow discussing how tenable the position of Secretary of State is for Mr Murphy.

I strongly suspect it'll be the middle option as I don't think I could bring myself to spend any time in the Angkor Wat internet cafe. Similarly, passing up Thailand beach parties in order to discuss concordats seems wrong, regardless of how historic they may be.

That said, I have been enormously delighted and inspired by the high number of hits of late, the "no referring link"s and Google Keywords of SNP Tactical Voting. I'm humbly thrilled that people seem to enjoy reading what I write so I'll keep the blog going once my feet stay rooted in the one country for any length of time, whenever or wherever that may be.

For now though, thanks again and all the blogging best!