A not inconsiderable sample size of 207 from the Scottish slice of the recent YouGov poll has the following for Scotland's Westminster voting intentions:
SNP - 33%
Labour - 32%
Tory - 21%
Lib Dem - 8%
Greens - 4%
UKIP - 1%
Other (any ideas?) - 1%
I am uncharateristically pessimistic about the SNP's chances in the Westminster election so I am surprised and delighted by this mini-poll. The SNP are holding up well against Labour on this evidence.
Also, it's worth noting that the Tories have a healthy 21% here and this would bring them a lot of joy if they held this level into an election.
UPDATE:
Allowing for a few reasonable assumptions, I reckon that this poll would give the following share of seats in an election:
Labour - 30
SNP - 18
Tory - 10
Lib Dem - 1
This includes reasonably comfortable wins for bloggers Richard Thomson and Julie Hepburn given the apparent state of the Lib Dem collapse.
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6 comments:
Ah, you'll have the UK polling elite onto you as quick as you can say standard deviation.
So obviously I'm not even looking at that 4% Green figure in a Westminster poll, where we normally do a fraction as well as in Holyrood polling, understandably. Because that's just, let it be noted, probably 8 people.
I wouldn't knock it James, I'm sure that's still a couple more than voted for you guys last time around.
No, I actually have a lot of sympathy with the Greens and Westminster. 4% of 646 MPs is 25.84 which is a considerable (and somewhat bloody) number of politicians to have in Westminster.
Not to mention that if you had a reasonable chance of getting MPs via proportional representation then that 4% would be considerably higher.
No, if we were showing up at 4% for real in actual Westminster polling I'd be expecting at least 7-8% in Holyrood regional polls, which would be a noticeable uptick. And 4% in Scotland would, proportionally, be two and a third Scottish Green MPs out of those 25.84 overall. A nice fantasy.
Jeff this is a good poll for the SNP and although its one of them sub polls, 207 is not a bad sample size.
So judging by your seat projection the SNP would gain 11 seats and the Libs would loose 9 i think ? and the Cons would gain 9 seats.
Hmm, if im right the SNP,s gains would come mainly from the Libs ?
Ach see them Sub polls they confuse the hell out of me, what is evident is Labour even with a smaller share of the vote do very well out of First past the post.
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