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Saturday, April 25, 2009

YouGov Poll on Independence!

Well, no, there isn't actually because the SNP didn't ask YouGov to ask the 1,020 individuals in its recent poll the question.

Or maybe they did and didn't like the answer?

Either way, it's a bit strange I reckon. Does this represent pessimism about the likelihood of a 2010 referendum or just an innocent omission from an excellent poll result...?

7 comments:

Holyrood Patter said...

no news of the euros either
maybe they worry that even if they intend to vote snp, others may switch their answer in voting intentions when they hear of independence

Aye We Can ! said...

simple lesson - dont give any polls or any subveys published by an poiltical party - even you own any credence. Comissioned as private polls, they should remain private, not seectively published, most usually by hand picked media outlets.

Montague Burton said...

Here you go Jeff.


POLL SHOWS INDEPENDENCE REFERENDUM “THERE TO BE WON”

SUPPORT MOVES AHEAD IN EUROPEAN CONTEXT

New findings of a YouGov poll show that support for Scottish independence moves ahead when the question is put in the context of Scotland being “a member of the European Union in its own right”. In total, 42 per cent back that position, compared to 40 per cent against.

The poll also shows that 35 per cent of Scots are more likely to back Scottish independence if the Tories were to win the next General Election, compared to just 6 per cent who would be less likely – a balance of some six-to-one.

In the independence referendum poll question, support for independence increases by 4 points from the last YouGov poll in March to 37%, with 52% against – the best position in a YouGov poll since September 2008.

SNP Westminster leader Angus Robertson said:

“This poll shows that an independence referendum is there to be won. As we approach the European elections, when people are asked if they want Scotland to be a member of the EU in our own right – as opposed to being represented by the UK government – the answer is positive. And the headline support for independence has also increased by 4 points to the best position in a YouGov poll since last autumn.

“As the UK government arbitrarily axes the Scottish budget by £500 million in the teeth of a recession, it will become ever clearer why Scotland needs to be in charge of our own resources – and with our own voice to protect and promote Scottish interests in Europe.”

SNP President and MEP Ian Hudghton said;

“This poll is an excellent starting point for the SNP as we go into the European election campaign.

“This poll shows voters want Scotland to have a strong independent voice in Europe. A vote for the SNP in June is about giving Scotland that voice, supporting the SNP in fighting for Scottish jobs in Europe and showing that Scotland has what it takes to be at the heart of Europe.”

ENDS

Details of the poll are as follows:

On balance do you think Scotland should…?

Continue to be represented by the UK Government in the European Union - 40%
Be a member of the European Union in its own right and represented by the Scottish Government - 42%
Neither of these - 9%
Don’t know - 9%


In the referendum, the Scottish Government intends to ask people whether they think the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership with the United Kingdom so that Scotland becomes an independent country.

Do you agree or disagree that the Scottish Government should negotiate this new partnership?

I AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership so that Scotland becomes an independent country - 37%
I DO NOT AGREE that the Scottish Government should negotiate a new partnership so that Scotland becomes an independent country - 52%
Don’t know - 11%

Note - In a YouGov poll in January the gap was 26% and in a March YouGov poll it was 20%.


If the Conservative Party were to win the next General Election, would this make you more likely or less likely to back Scottish independence?

Much more likely to back Scottish independence - 24%
Slightly more likely - 11%
Slightly less likely - 3%
Much less likely to back Scottish independence - 3%
No difference – I would back Scottish independence anyway - 14%
No difference – I would NOT back Scottish independence anyway - 34%
Don’t know - 11%


The YouGov poll was commissioned by the SNP and conducted from 21-22 April among 1,020 Scottish adults.

Mr. Mxyzptlk said...

This poll shows that an independence referendum is there to be lost.

perhaps thats why the snp weren't shouting from the rooftops.

Aye We Can ! said...

Monty - yjanks fot the pst - and SNP news release. But, dpie ANgus/s spin, etc, this to me makes pretyy grim reading for a party comimittrd to an indepemdence referendum in 2010 - that's next year!

Even in SNP designed dof questions, we lose every one, some by a mile. And is see the poll was taken in the immeduated aftermath of the SNPs spring conference, PPB etc. AND woth smeargate still very fresh in people's minds.

SO we pick the polling company, set the questions, and determine the dates - and vontol the spin, and satill lose. Ye t call this good neews.

And i see angus could no resist incluuding the £500m cu mantra- despite this being by the scoyyish governments on statistics being provably wrong

But why let stats gey in the way when thes is an artmy of enthusiastic nats oiut there willing to gobble up and then repruduced the central office line?

Msybre becuase this will all catch up wiyh us Angus. Nad the big staa that really counts is SNP party members c 10,000, people of Scotland c 5 million

My team StMirren got gubbed 3-0 yesterday. I see no sense in calling this a win, a victory of sortd. Id rather work on winning for real next time.

Jeff said...

Thanks Montague, much appreciated.

It seems I jumped the gun a little bit!

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