When is a Lothians List MSP not a Lothians List MSP? When her constituency is pulled out of the region in question and pushed into Central.
Poor Fiona Hyslop, not only does she have to suffer being chosen as the supposed weak link in the Scottish Cabinet but now the rug has been pulled from under her by the boundary changes.
It seems Fiona's only hopes of getting back into Holyrood in 2011 rests on winning the constituency of Linlithgow in the next election which, to be fair, is eminently possible as Mary Mulligan isn't exactly setting the heather alight for Labour and Fiona only lost out by 1,000 votes last time. I always thought the birthplace of Alex Salmond and Mary Queen of Scots should be ripe territory for the SNP anyway.
To be honest though, the boundary commissions are beyond me most of the time. I find it all terribly confusing and just wish they would just leave things be for a decade or two. It would certainly make predicting things a lot easier.
I did hear that Edinburgh Central is going to be more solid Labour territory, expanding West and East. What that means for the SNP candidate and Lothians MSP Shirley-Anne Somerville I am not so sure. Well, I have a rough idea but it would involve finding a new Edinburgh constituency and I can't imagine that going down too well
There are many blogs I wish were still going at the best of times but for boundary questions, for me it was always Adam Smith was a Socialist that had a strong handle on these things. Maybe he'll come back for a one-off or guest post once it becomes clear what constituencies are a-changing.
"Naebody's nails can reach the length o' Lunnon..."
53 minutes ago
18 comments:
It makes sence when you consider that the Westminster seat already crosses the boundaries and that Airdrie, Shotts and Whitbrun will further add to the complications.
Thing is the Health Boards, Police Authorities etc will all still be straddled. But hey having be ready for all of that since considering standing for Linlithgow and Falkirk East first time out that is no big deal really.
Those are the two shortest sentences I've ever seen Stephen Glenn use!
The one "lost" MSP Lothian definitely needs is Baron Foulkes.
Aside for being a national embarassment ( and surely a big vote loser for Labour?) can this long retired MP not stand aside and let in some new blood? Even by labour standards a waste of space
But the irony is, despite being the last man left standing in Labour ranks who oppossed to PR for Holyrood, because he is a list not a constituency MSP, and top of thet list, he is about the "safest" Labour MSP in Lothians. Typical of the man - cosy in his own nest, along with those grotque House of Lords allowances plus these directorships, Yet the clown had the gall to criticise "two jobs! Salmond, But at leat Eck is productive, good at his jobs
If you had to sum up Labour in Scotland in two words it would surely be "Lord Foulkes"?
Fiona Hyslop? - if she fights Linlithgow , win or bust, she will probably win. There is I think a general problem when fighting tight seats when you have the luxury of a guaranteed list seat - are these crucial extra votes squeezed?. So maybe no bad thing. Linthithgow should have gone SNP in 2007. But dont underestimate Mary Mulligan. She might not set the heather on fire, but she is dillegent, and well liked locally -And on housing has the SNP governmment on the run - one of the few araes the nats are genuinely on the back foot, saw off Stewart Maxwell. But Fiona shoud take her on next tiem and beat her - maybe by then as a backbencher, win that vital seat without baggage or an insurance policy
Aye We Can,
What a load of crap. George has never said anything other than the fact that he was a one term MSP.
You are either ignorant or decided to blatantly ignore the facts in order to have a go.
Jeff,
"Mary Mulligan isn't exactly setting the heather alight for Labour "
Enlighten me - on what basis are you making that judgement?
Been in linlithgow recently?
Bathgate, Boghall?
You wouldn't let me get away with a statement like that without attempting to substantiate it?
Kez
Kez, given the huge poll leads the SNP enjoy it would take a special MSP to hold on to their seat in a marginal like Linlithgow. For me, Mary M wouldn't be able to buck the national swing as far as I can see... Fiona's increased profile would give her a polling boost too.
Based on some rough numbers and guessing, Mary M's majority would be slightly smaller... though Labour might make up for a loss in Linlithgow by reclaiming Livingston as some of the strong Lab area from Linlithgow folds into that seat. I think...
Why is this such a problem? Surely Ms. Hyslop can ask to be considered in her own right to be put on the Lothians list next time round..? (I can't imagine that she would be far from the top.) Or still stand (if you want to be dogmatic) in Linlithgow CC and ask to be considered for the East Central list (again probably ranking highly)...
keiza
My apologies. But what fantasic news to me. Can you not persude him though just to chuck it now. Of all the asses of the Speaker debacle he is surely at number 1?( hope he wasn't on commission)
But rejoice the good people of lothians - liberation from the baron awaits.....oops i forgot he is a Lord for life. Why dont he go for a heriditoty peer - like his pal michael martin with his heridotory fiefdom?
Lord Foulkes - just what s the point? I'm surprised he aint in Dublin defending the Catholic church. He specialisaes in defending the rich and powerfull oagainst regular folks: Romanov, Martin - why not make it hat trick?
But long may he talk mince - the longer the better!
Jeff,
Mary's seat was a marginally in 2007 and she held it.
She won it because she's liked and known for working hard.
Fiona Hyslop has stood and lost that seat twice now.
What makes you think her 4 years as education secretary are going to enhance her chances next time around?
Kez
I'm awfully tempted to answer Kez's questions, you know.
Enlighten me - on what basis are you making that judgement?
Been in linlithgow recently?
Bathgate, Boghall?
Especially as she picks Boghall ahead or say Armadale or Whitburn which are bigger entity that the village to the East of Bathgate and where you would be hard pressed to find the dividing line.
Though I do like the point that after 4 years (persumtavely) as Education Secratary she may well be losing votes. Mary did buck the trand and gain gross votes for a Labour incumbant last time around. As Fiona came second on more votes than required to win in 2003.
Malc some of the strong Labour parts (the old coal mining communities) of the seat are also siphoned off into Airdrie, Shotts and Whitburn.
However, it also looks like I personally may be contesting the East Central list alongside Hugh O'Donnell rather than Lothians myself.
Doing that too much recently. ^^^^^
Can I claim tiredness.
Why do we never see the Labour list 'team' out here. The Nat's have opened their list office in Whitburn Main Street while Lord Foulkes sits happy in the Parliament, talking nonsense to the Evening News and the nationals - when was the last time he bothered to call the West Lothian Courier about a real local issue or got his noble backside out to East Lothain or Midlothian? Why can't he base himself in Livingston shopping centre and do a bit of work trying to take back one of the seats Labour never should've lost?
Jeff, just for the record, they have left well alone on the SP bounaries for ten years - the current set were drawn up for Westminster and the European Parliament back in 1995, so they're 14 years old now, and we've been due a change.
And if the Holyrood boundaries had stayed co-terminous with Westminster, then there would have already been changes taking effect in the 2007 Election: either we'd have had 60 SP constituencies matching Westminster (well, splitting Orkney & Shetland of course), or we'd have had 72 Westminster constituencies not too dissimilar to these, which would have already been in place for Holyrood (like the changes to the Welsh Assembly boundaries) and would come onstream for the House of Commons at the next election.
PS I will try and put something together, hopefully by Monday!
Said Keiza:
"Mary's seat was a marginally in 2007 and she held it.
She won it because she's liked and known for working hard.
Fiona Hyslop has stood and lost that seat twice now."
I wouldn't let you get away with a statement like that without attempting to substantiate it?
Every year since 1999 Labour's majority has been cut by about 1,000, from 2,928, to 1,970 in 2003, then to 1,150 two years ago.
At that rate Mulligan will be frantically pacing in circles come the early hours of 6th May 2011.
Nice one Will, I look forward to it!
And yes MekQ, I wondered about that. Shirley-Anne Somerville lives in Fife so being outside the region doesn't cause a problem there.
I don't know if you can stand in a constiuency in one region and be on the list in another. Maybe there's some sort of rule.
Most of all though, I am glad they are keeping the names that give a bit of character to the constituency. Glasgow Cathcart for example, much better than all this South and West business.
Jeff,
You can't stand in a constituency in one region and on the list for another.
Indeed Malc I'd forgotten that point of minutiae was actually laid out in Holyrood regulations rather than just in party selection processes until it was pointed out to me this evening.
Kez,
I think Jeff meant setting the heather alight for Labour, he meant labour nationally. I know that someones local profile is a huge factory in any FPTP election but she doesnt have the highest profile nationally.
Perhaps Fiona Hyslop will be boosted by her 4 years, especially as old Iain has moved on to a new minister to attempt to dislodge. I know hes being trounced by Salmond in most polls, Id be genuinely intruiged to see Grays approval ratings against the ministers he weekly bemoans
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