There was an intriguing poll in the Sunday Times regarding the Springburn constituency of Glasgow North East, the scene of a by-election whenever Labour feel brave enough to call one.
On the face of it, Labour have the constituency in the bag:
Labour - 51% (-2%)
SNP - 33% (+15%)
Tory - 6%
Lib Dem - 3%
The comparisons in the brackets suggest that the Labour vote has held firm which is odd given there have been accounts in the press that a significant number will be switching sides. So where did that +15% come from for the SNP?
Well, the answer may lie in this line tucked away in the Sunday Times story and absent from their pie-charts which, once all the facts are clear, are actually highly misleading.
However, nationalists will be encouraged that it has already improved on its 2007 showing and that 41% have yet to decide how they will vote.
41% undecided! Almost half of the electorate are unsure which way they would vote. It's not unreasonable to think these are disillusioned Labour voters tempted by a vote for the SNP but not yet made their minds up.
Of the 700 who were polled (it was close to that number but the paper version I had has been recycled), the breakdown of polling intentions becomes:
Undecided - 41.0%
Labour - 30.0%
SNP - 19.5%
Tory - 3.5%
Lib Dem - 1.8%
Puts quite a different slant on things doesn't it? The phrase "game on" suddenly springs to mind.
And the SNP were in a very similar position just 10 days into the official Glasgow East campaign last year and we all know how that turned out.
On the face of it, Labour have the constituency in the bag:
Labour - 51% (-2%)
SNP - 33% (+15%)
Tory - 6%
Lib Dem - 3%
The comparisons in the brackets suggest that the Labour vote has held firm which is odd given there have been accounts in the press that a significant number will be switching sides. So where did that +15% come from for the SNP?
Well, the answer may lie in this line tucked away in the Sunday Times story and absent from their pie-charts which, once all the facts are clear, are actually highly misleading.
However, nationalists will be encouraged that it has already improved on its 2007 showing and that 41% have yet to decide how they will vote.
41% undecided! Almost half of the electorate are unsure which way they would vote. It's not unreasonable to think these are disillusioned Labour voters tempted by a vote for the SNP but not yet made their minds up.
Of the 700 who were polled (it was close to that number but the paper version I had has been recycled), the breakdown of polling intentions becomes:
Undecided - 41.0%
Labour - 30.0%
SNP - 19.5%
Tory - 3.5%
Lib Dem - 1.8%
Puts quite a different slant on things doesn't it? The phrase "game on" suddenly springs to mind.
And the SNP were in a very similar position just 10 days into the official Glasgow East campaign last year and we all know how that turned out.
Add to that that the SNP have almost doubled their share of the vote since the 2005 General Election.
Add to that again the deeply unpopular local factor of Glasgow school closures (6 are in this constituency) and we well and truly have a by-election contest on our hands.
Then again, an 18% poll deficit? One just can't shake it off however hard one may try....
3 comments:
Undecided - 41.0%
Labour - 30.0%
SNP - 19.5%
Tory - 3.5%
Lib Dem - 1.8%
...........
Like you say very encouraging and all to play for. If the SNP put in a good campaign like they did in Glasgow East and focus hard on issues like the local School closures, which despite Labour party lies, Glasgow city council said it was due to falling school numbers and not cuts from the Scottish gov then they could win this seat.
Even if the SNP fail to win the seat but still hold a 17% swing from Labour nationally then a clutch of seats are coming our way including Leith where i am sitting.
Isn't the point that those not 'decided' to vote may not actually vote at all. Or those that do, turn out in the same proportion as the poll results.
Pollsters these days generally use the certain to vote figures in their main headline projections.
Far more important is the selection of people to poll and the statistical manipulation of their background. Its quite possible that this poll 'found' more Labour leanoing voters than statistically acceptable.
But again in Glasgow North East that would not be too difficult.
The real question is why, after voting Labour for a millennia and still being shit poor, do they continue.
This is a constituency where 14% voted Socialist Labour because they didn't understand why the genuine article wasn't on the ballot and lacked the self-confidence to ask the polling staff.
It's effectively Labour's safest seat in the UK. Unfortunately for the SNP, because of the unusual circumstances, that's not how it's being seen.
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