I've only had a chance to read the first couple of paragraphs as I haven't bought the Scotsman (yet) but I see Malcolm Bruce is feeling a bit nervy about the Lib Dems plight:
POLITICAL commentators, lazy and obsessed by metropolitan bias, seem to be incapable of understanding or even noticing that the Liberal Democrats are a significant force in British and Scottish politics.
An opinion poll commissioned by the SNP that tells us the party is carrying all before it and all but walks on water is swallowed hook line and sinker by the media,
Either way, his party's standing is at a jawdropping 9% nationally, a swing that would see the SNP's Richard Thomson win Bruce's Gordon seat pretty convincingly indeed.
A lot of parallels were drawn between the SNP in 2009 with the SNP back in 1979 but, for me, it is the Lib Dems whose current position is most similarly echoing those times three decades ago.
Clinging onto seats that were former strongholds and losing ex party leaders along the way, the Lib Dems were well and truly squeezed out by a Labour and Tory 2-horse race. Infact, come 2010, it may well be only ex party leaders thjat fly the Lib Dem flag north of the border, and there's still scope for Charlie Kennedy and Ming Campbell to retire before then.
The existence of Holyrood and a hugely successful SNP administration running it will see to it that the Nationalists don't have a repeat of that dark day back in '79 but for the Lib Dems and Malcolm Bruce, I reckon they should be very worried indeed.
Grexit Trading
10 minutes ago
13 comments:
Wow that would be some swing to wipe out Edinburgh West. But leave both Ming and Charles.
It also ignores Alistair Carmichael in the longest held Liberal seat in Scotland.
Hang on it was a poll comissioned by the SNP. So can I please find out where it was targetted?
I know that certain of the SNP targetted areas would have lower than average Lib Dem representation. Always doubtful of partisan commissioned 'national' polls especially this close to an election.
The SNP commissioned poll was carried out by YouGov (results available on the YouGov website).
Stephen are you really suggesting that the outcome of a YouGov poll could be bought? YouGov have an excellent reputation - be careful when you question their integrity.
How about the TNS poll from the Sunday Herald. Independantly commissioned, figures generally consistent with the YouGov poll. And the Lib Dems still looking ropey.
I'm just waiting until I get a chance to look at the questions if it was a Scottish wide poll.
A drop to 9% in contrary to the recent UK wide trend that is all I'm saying, even allowing for 4 party politics. It's also not matching up with what I'm seeing on the ground from a bigger sample.
I'd be surprised if the Lib Dems really were in single figures. Surely they still have a role as a haven for unionists who don't like Labour or the Tories?
I'm just waiting until I get a chance to look at the questions if it was a Scottish wide poll.
A drop to 9% in contrary to the recent UK wide trend that is all I'm saying, even allowing for 4 party politics. It's also not matching up with what I'm seeing on the ground from a bigger sample.
Whether the question is about the Euro Elections next month or Westminster next whenever is also a differnce that needs to be considered as always.
The usual caveats on a Scottish poll apply that a large number of Lib Dem Strongholds will normally not be polled, don't think many pollsters get North of the Tay outside of Aberdeen.
The Inverness by-election result from last week was very disappointing for the SNP. Surely you aren't suggesting that they have a chance of winning that seat from Danny Alexander?
I wouldn't be so sure about Richard Thomson's chances in Gordon, either. Malcolm Bruce is a very popular local figure who works very hard.
I suspect that in fact we will keep who we have and make gains when the election finally comes.
Not exactly the full throttled defence of their electoral fortunes from the Lib Dems there.
A couple of add-ons to Charlie and Ming and that's it? I was hoping you'd at least put up a bit of a fight.
I didn't see any upward trend in 2005. You polled well and had a good election. Now you're polling poorly.
I don't expect Danny Alexander to keep his seat Caron, nor Malcolm Bruce but he has a better chance of holding on.
So what more do you want than "we will keep what we have and make gains" Jeff?
Isn't that spirited enough for you?
The System 3 poll Jeff refers to wasn't commissioned by the SNP. That was the Yougov poll of the week before which had the LD's on a conistent, if not quite skyscraping, 13% for Holyrood and Westminster. Even if the Yougov poll was what Jeff had referred to, they ask the questions in the same way regardless of who commissions the poll, and they ask the voting intentions first to avoid the risk of other questions having an influence. It would be a cheap shot to suggest they churn out the results their client wants.
Stephen Glenn might have a point about where samples were taken, even if he's flat wrong about who commissioned the poll and downright scurrilous to suggest the SNP, or anyone else, targetted it in specific areas to get a decent result. The Lib Dem vote is clearly found in small pockets of strength - if enough of these aren't included they may be underestimated. However, weighting by past voting intention and demographics should make the sample as representative as possible.
It's perfectly possible that the Lib Dems are benefiting from Labour's woes elsewhere in the UK, but less soin Scotland. After all, the Tories appear to be the big gainers in England, but are making less headway up here as the SNP benefits most. Perhaps the Lib Dems are doing well in the North of England, where the Tories struggle a bit more and there's no SNP?
Where are these "usual caveats" about there not being much polling north of the Tay in a Scottish poll?
Ten out of ten for clutching at straws though, Stephen.
PS "Taxi for Bruce!"
Stephen...nothing north of the Tay etc. I seriously doubt that this is the case. What with being respected professional pollsters and all I think you'll find that they ensure a representative sample across the country - even in the North East.
And of the argument is that they are no polling the north east then that would mean they would have missed the SNP strongholds too surely?
Two poll from two reputable firms who make their money out of their integrity. In both the Lib Dems are looking a poor 4th.
Please spare us "the people on the doorsteps are with us" as the only person you might be fooling is yourself. It's a lib dem line along with "many people having be saying that..." or "only the lib dems can beat X". Folk don't buy it anymore.
It seems incredible to remember that just a few years ago, before they expelled me for wanting to grow the economy Irish style & not believing in genocide, they were the 2nd party in Scotland in the Westminster vote & pushing hard to overtake the SNP in Holyrood voting intentions.
I don't say it is entirely because of that but I do say that if they had been willing to embrace such classic liberalism (as the SNP embraced at least the principle of economic growth even if they have failed to practice it) they would now be in the SNP's place.
Possibly similarly in Westminster where Cameron has never really looked like leadership material & is going to win by default.
As Bill Clinton once said "its the economy stupid" & any party that can credibly promise economic success will get supported. Ir says much about our political class that this is not noticed.
Post a Comment