The polls are coming thick and fast.
MORI compiles the misery for Gordon Brown by putting Labour into the teens:
Tories - 40%
Lib Dems - 18%
Labour - 18%
Further to this, I noticed that the YouGov results are up with the following:
European Vote
SNP - 29%
Labour 24%
Tory/Lib Dem - 13%
Westminster Vote
SNP - 29%
Labour - 26%
We saw recently how the 'minor' parties had a major boost in their share of the vote when they were included alongside the main parties. Well, the SNP are lumped in with 'Others' in this poll so there's a very good chance that there is scope for an extra lead when the results come in on Thursday. 3 MEPs is still a distinct possibility.
There are no 'Others' section on the European ballot list, as much as Gordon Brown may wish it.
Anyway, I'm off to watch Paolo Nutini in what I hope is a concert and not a demonstration on where the Paisley Council are going wrong...
Grexit Trading
12 minutes ago
5 comments:
There is a never-ending stream of bad news for the Labour Party, with UK-wide polls showing them battling in the teens in a three party system. So it's interesting that Labour manage to hold on to a decent second place in Scotland's four party system, just three percentage points behind the SNP. The SNP ought to be absolutely trouncing them. What's gone wrong?
I think these polls may be an anomaly....
Virtually every other poll seems to show 10 clear points betwixt the SNP and Labour.
Unless there's been a dramatic difference caused in the last week, I think we may be seeing a problem caused by the pollsters failure to analyse Scotland properly...
Either which way though, 5 clear points is ok; 10 is better, 15 and you're laughing, and some polls show 5, some 10 and some 15 (and I think one was 19!)
Hi Duncan,
I think there is a solid core of Labour voters, some 20%, that would really take some convincing to shift their vote, let alone vote SNP.
There really is a deep-seated block of red that just won't shift. I call them Labour's 'base load'.
And let's not forget just how far back the SNP were in 2004 and 2005 at the last European and General elections, significant progress has been made and that shouldn't be glossed over too lightly.
Add to that the fact that the SNP are still a mid-term Government north of the border which is usually a position that leads to a party getting a good kicking and you've got to think the SNP are doing more than OK.
Oh, and once again, the SNP were lumped in with the others of UKIP and BNP in this poll. That could well skew their result downwards as some of those who polled may have picked their favourite party out of Labour, Tories and Lib Dems. Wishful thinking perhaps but it would only take several such people to make a big difference to the figures. Let's not forget we've seen the SNP hit the mid to high 30s in other poll so there's no reason why they won't "trounce" Labour yet.
Further still, there are many unionists that wouldn't vote SNP whatever the desperate situation for Labour. That's fair enough of course but it's another reason the SNP vote may be depressed.
Jeff, you make good points about the solid Labour vote which just won't budge. Undoubtedly Labour's base is much stronger in Scotland than it is in the UK as a whole. But following the Glasgow East by-election you would have thought Scotland was in a position to start shaking that off. Seemingly not.
Liebour have a large payroll vote in Scotland. There is a much larger public sector in Scotland than in England - especially than in South East England where more than half the UK population lives.
The Liebour Party has been solidly entrenched in power for so long that their corrupting tentacles extend through much more areas of life than you could imagine. Remember, we are like a soviet here - and in many former soviets the people still elect communists.
Some people don't like Mr Salmond personally. He is the only politician that people have openly told me they don't like. I have met him and heard him speak, so I don't share their distaste, but that must be a factor too.
It will take many more years, but the SNP will eventually win in Scotland. They have to gradually take power. Destroy the Labour hegemony on everything, and those daft old geriatrics with their religious bigotry and their memories of coal mines ( I paraphrase ) will die out, to be replaced by 3 generations of people who grew up painting their faces blue. It will come.
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