So we are just about into Westminster's summer recess when ordinarily the political stories die away, MPs take a well-deserved break and the public can allow their minds to wander off onto topics that don't tend to involve political parties. The Ashes, The Open and the increasingly appalling Big Brother, for example.
Of course with a Norwich by-election due next week, a Glasgow by-election due soon after MPs return to London and former Cabinet members seemingly perfectly content to keep the pressure on Gordon Brown over the summer break, the recess as far as media coverage is concerned may, once again, be cancelled.
I suspect, on the other hand, that politicians, journalists and even some bloggers will be exhausted from the travails of the expenses scandal, the European election results and the political infighting. A bona fide recess period is probably on the cards.
With that in mind then, I thought I would have a look at how polling figures tend to behave over the summer months.
MPs will return to Parliament on October 12th and will take their leave on July 21st. What level of support did the Tories, Labour and the Lib Dems have on these dates since the last election and is there a trend that can be retrieved from the data?
2008 (YouGov Sunday Telegraph)
Recess - 21 July to 12 Oct
October 27/29 - Labour (33), Tory (42), Lib Dems (15)
July 23/25 - Labour (26), Tory (45), Lib Dems (17)
Tory lead of 19 reduced to 9, Lib Dems down 2
2007 (YouGov Sunday Times)
Recess - 26 July to 8 Oct
October 6/7 - Labour (38), Tory (41), Lib Dems (11)
July 19/20 - Labour (40), Tory (33), Lib Dems (15)
July 19/20 - Labour (40), Tory (33), Lib Dems (15)
Labour lead of 7 reduced to Tory lead of 3, Lib Dems down 4
2006 (YouGov Daily Telegraph)
Recess - 25 July to 9 Oct
September 27/29 - Labour (36), Tory (36), Lib Dems (16)
July 24/26 - Labour (33), Tory (38), Lib Dems (18)
July 24/26 - Labour (33), Tory (38), Lib Dems (18)
Tory lead of 5 reduced to level pegging, Lib Dems down 2
2005 (YouGov Daily Telegraph)
Recess - 28 July to 10 Oct
September 27/29 - Labour (40), Tory (32), Lib Dems (20)
July 26/28 - Labour (40), Tory (31), Lib Dems (21)
July 26/28 - Labour (40), Tory (31), Lib Dems (21)
Labour lead of 9 reduced to 8, Lib Dems down 1
It's pretty clear then, the summer recess is a leveller. Whichever party holds a polling lead going into the summer can expect to see it dwindle by the time MPs take their green leather seats in October.
The Lib Dems, similarly, can expect a slight reduction as their polling figures have decreased during every summer since the last election. Clearly the third party in UK Politics spends the parliamentary term gaining support only for it to fall away a little when their MPs are on recess. The ray of sunshine for Nick Clegg is that this helps to confirm the theory that the Lib Dems receive a boost during election campaigns, when the polling really matters.
But the main spotlight should fall on the Tories and Labour, as the battle for control of Westminster enters its final chapter.
The summer months won't see a Brown Bounce but it probably will see a Cameron Correction.
Come the end of Autumn we will forget why we thought so little of Gordon Brown and wonder what we saw in David Cameron back in Spring, if we saw anything at all of course.
The Prime Minister may well wade into a political disaster of his own making over the next few months or events may contrive to work against him but if Gordon keeps his chin up and his nose clean until October then his party's polling figures should be within reach of a hung parliament, a by-election victory in Glasgow may follow and with a decent manifesto and a bit of togetherness in the Labour party's ranks, it could be game on for May 2010 after all...
13 comments:
I tend not to believe polls. Famously they got it all wrong when the Tories kept on getting re-elected, despite polls saying they wouldn't, because people were too embarrassed to say they voted Tory, even 'though they did. I think you are better off just smelling the atmosphere, and anyone who has been down South recently can tell you it stinks of Tory. They are getting in. Now as much as I might want to say that I don't care and they are all the same, that's not true. The Tories will bring a singular blend of nastiness with them.
So, to state the bleedin' obvious, just vote SNP and get us the hell out of this.
I doubt we could ever be as nasty as The Labour Party, ever. It is a shame The SNP seem happy to follow their lead. With this kind of attitude I would welcome your departure and good riddance.
I think expanding on the "singular blend ofnastiness" would be helpful Observer. Personally I don't see it myself so it's be interesting to hear some examples?
My overriding personal impression is that the Tories are more capable of balancing the books which makes me feel quite easy with them getting in. Cameron and Osborne have had too easy a ride thus far and do deserve more scrutiny (not that they'll get it over recess, of course)
Darling is so refreshingly candid in interviews and then comes out with ludicrous predictions in Budget statements that I just can't take him seriously. Though the fact his speeches get signed off by Brown probably has something to do with it...
Liebour are goners. The latest YouGov poll is a 17 point lead again. From what I hear about the place, the economy is in a much worse state than we are being told. Every other place I work with is shedding shedding labour or is on short time. There is no prospect at all of Liebour winning an election. The Tories just have to sit on their hands til its called, and its theirs to lose.
Talking about polls, two published this evening are highlighted on PoliticalBetting.Com
Conservative 38% (+2)
Labour 23% (-2)
Lib Dem 22% (+3)
Others 16% (-4)
In tomorrow’s Independent on Sunday done by ComRes.
ITN have a Yougov poll
CON 42% (+2)
LAB 25% (+1)
LD 18% (+1)
Oth 15% (-4)
the trend suggests Labour are heading for a defeat whenever the General Election comes. No amount of political spin will get Labour out of the electoral hole they have dug for themselves.
You must be a good deal younger than me Jeff if you don't remember the deliberate destruction of the miners, Ravernscraig, privatisation, anti-trade unionism, rioting in the streets, starving hunger strikers, the love-in with Ronald Reagan whilst he was undermining the Sandanista govt, the bombing of Lybia, the Belgrano etc etc.
In many ways the Tories set the template for New Labour. Both Thatcher and Gordon Brown have admitted that. Gordon Brown is not wholly responsible for the economic mess that we are in (aside from global recession) the Tories started the ball rolling 30 years ago. Labour just didn't stop it.
But they have a particular vengefulness which is particularly nasty. As I said, the destruction of the miners does spring to mind. I can't think of anything that Labour have done domestically which mirrors that. And Labour's greatest crime, their foreign policy, was only mirroring what Thatcher did with Reagan. It didn't lead to Iraq, but that was only due to circumstances.
It's a complete myth that the
Tories would have handled the economy better. New Labour *copied* the Tories policies - the whole de-regulation gig and financialisation of the economy was started by them. Labour's abiding shame is that they didn't reverse the Tories policies, why on earth does anyone think that the Tories would have done that ? It was their ideas Labour were putting into practise.
Observer, you have a fixed mindset which no amount of reason or experience will shift. Russia still has communist voters.
The old heavy state owned industries fuelled the dependency culture. The economy became much more efficient after the privatisations. Look outside your window at the cars and the houses. When I was at school I never knew a kid that had even been on a plane. My sister in law's kid didn't want to go to France again this year.
Broadly, the people left behind have been those with mental problems, addictions, or a lack of desire to work. For most people, if they are honest, they are better off than they would have been before Thatcher.
I hated the woman, but she did what had to be done. The charge against Liebour is that they knew they were riding a wave of debt and still chose to pretend it was their good governance which was making us all rich. They were incompetent, nose in the trough, Pyramid salesmen.
If the Tories had brought in the repressive legislation that ZANU has done, if they had sent our soldiers off to die in pointless foreign adventures, if they had sold our country to the EU after failing to honour a referendum, you know well that Liebour would have orchestrated strikes and civil disobedience.
There is little difference between either Liebour or the Tories, but at least the Tories are a sound money party.
That rosie tinted view of history is crap. Who the hell wants to earn a crust digging coal in the bowels of the earth?
I hope Liebour never get elected again in my lifetime.
The Sunday Times breakdown for Scotland (usual caveats )
SNP 36
LAB 35
CON 13
LD 10
GRN 2
UKIP 2
BNP 1
you can otain the full data set from the ST website.
Goodness me anonymous what world do you live in ? The dependency culture that we know now was planted in the Thatcher era, when they moved unemployed people onto incapacity benefit. Privatisation has not made anything more efficient, introducing the profit motive into public utilities has been a disaster. The houses and the planes and the cars and all the rest of it, the imaginary good that we have been living on was bought on the drip - it was credit fuelled. Same as house prices - which was kick started by Thatcher with her ''property owning and share owning democracy''. It was all a giant speculative bubble.
OK the bubble has burst now, but anyone who blames Labour alone for that is airbrushing history.
And what is your comment about my fixed mindset all about ? You don't have a clue what my mindset is. It sure as hell has nothing to do with Russia.
The people left behind have been those with mental problems, addictions, or a lack of desire to work. Well I think you have just illustrated my point anonymous about how nasty Tories can be.
Thanks.
Nice turn of phrase, Jeff.
The Tories will will have absolutely no compunction about targeting public service cuts at those on low incomes and benefits for the simple reason that those people do not vote Tory. It's not about balancing the books - the Tories are not going to balance the books any more than Labour would - it is about that electoral calculation. They will protect spending which benefits their voters and slash spending which benefits Labour's core vote. They did it when they were in power in the 1980s and 90s and they will do it again.
Scotland will have some protection because we have an SNP Government but it will still be tough and it will be those at the bottom of the heap who get it in the neck.
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