There has been a pretty explosive poll conducted by ConservativeHome which may well receive little notice in tomorrow's press but could well be a major factor in the constitutional arrangements going forward.
144 Tory election candidates in the most winnable seats were asked the following (among other questions) with the attached results:
Which statement comes closest to your own view:
"the Union should be defended at all costs" - 54%
" would not be uncomfortable about Scotland becoming independent" - 46%
If the Tories, as is strongly expected, have a convincing majority after the next General Election and as many as half of their number are "not uncomfortable" with Scotland becoming independent while the SNP are straining every sinew to make it happen north of the border, there will be very, very little to stop a referendum taking place.
The potential damage this could cause to those of a unionist bent is highlighted by David Mundell's rather panicked response:
"I don't think this was a scientific poll. I don't attach any weight to it.
"David Cameron has made his position clear on the Union. He is committed to being Prime Minister of the United Kingdom, not just any single part of it, and he has been very clear that he would not do anything to damage the Union. I'm sure that is the prevailing view in the party."
First of all, the statistical science may be lacking but science is not required. Most political polls are a sample of 1,000 from a population of some 35million. This is a sample of 144 from a population of some 400 at the most (or however many MPs the Tories will win next year)
The coverage is simply off the scale and consequently the accuracy of the results are unparalleled when it comes to the YouGovs and ICMs of this world.
I would reckon there is a much higher percentage in the Labour party than 54% who are uncomfortable with the scenario of Scottish Independence so, despite the Unionist tag in the incoming Government party's title, the plates will be shifting in Salmond's favour after May 2010 on this evidence...
(Photo taken from North to Leith's blog post which is not entirely unrelated to the above.)
8 comments:
In my neck of the woods, an area which was tory for years, most tories would agree with the latter view. The ones who insist we stay with the union appear to be the 60+ age group and in another generation they will be gone.
My English tory friends really couldn't care less if we decide to be independent. In fact their attitude is "go for it if that's what you want."
The other mildly reassuring thing about that ConHome poll is that the candidates are split 47:47 between those who would and wouldn't have voted for Barack Obama. But that probably says far more about how right-wing the US Republicans are than how moderate the Tories are!
Hi Subrosa,
I can certainly imagine it. There are a few MSPs who even privately (and not so privately) share that view.
The battle for an independence referendum in this parliamentary term will be interesting with such views out there.
And as you say, the pro-unionist views tend to be the old guard, often ex-Military team.
I'm sure if I had experienced WW2 or been born not long after it I'd feel a bit more British too.
The question is, do people generally get more pro-Union as they get older or is it genuinely dying off? I'd probably say a bit of both but it's hard to tell...
Agreed James, certaining reassuring. It would be interesting to do a study to how comparable the Republicans and Tories actually are. Byond my abilities to assess I'm afraid...
Old news Jeff, the views came before Cameron stated that their would be no change until after 2015.
Simply a confirmation of just 'middle english' the conservatives are and how they view Scotland.
Let's get on with it.
I can't think of anything more likely to increase the Yes vote than Calman being kicked into touch by Cameron.
Its time to put the question.
Ask it and they will come.
Old news perhaps but still relevant. What are we meant to be getting on with? And I like that strategy of waiting for Calman to be kicked into touch before the SNP redouble their efforts. That 'perfect storm' feeling is back again...
Interesting interpretation of a poll. From friends of mine that are tories in England they think there are reasons for this.
They think that it is Scotland's right to self determination therefore they shouldn't be seeking to keep Scotland in the union against the peoples will.
Scotland doesn't return Tories MPs anymore.
They are in the main strong unionists but they think unless you are enthusiastic and put effort into making something work, that you can be proud of, you might as well leave.
I think the fact that Scotland "appears" in England to have no emotional attachment to the union like they do makes them a little emabarassed. As far as they can see once the economic case for leaving is made Scotland would leave unlike England where the case for leaving would have to be won emotionally.
Plus I think there is a temptation to call Scotlands bluff.
You’re barking up the wrong tree with this one. I’m part of the 46 percent.
Specifically, I don’t think the Union should be “defended at all costs”. If there were ever a fair, open plebiscite in which the people of Scotland voted to leave Britain then, while I would certainly regret that decision, I wouldn’t be at all “uncomfortable” about it.
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