We have one more day left to find out whether the Glasgow by-election will be held in August (as it should be) or in November (as it shouldn't be). If Labour do not move the writ tomorrow then it will be a November poll for the people of Springburn while the people of Norwich North inexplicably get to go to the polls this Thursday, despite the two constituencies seeing their MPs step down at the same time.
If tomorrow is writ-less, the earliest potential date for the contest is 5th November. Gordon Brown wouldn't want to remember, remember that date given an SNP victory would be as explosive as Guy Fawkes' dynamite under the Houses of Parliament all those years ago.
So November 12th is the date that has been pencilled in.
Given such a ridiculous delay, why wouldn't Labour countenance an earlier by-election and move the writ tomorrow?
Plenty of theories have abounded from Brown wanting clear distance between two potential losses and a superstitious belief that the party can repeat the success of the November Glenrothes win last year.
I'd like to put forward another theory:
Autumn Party Conferences.
The SNP Conference will be held over the weekend of the 17th and 18th of October, a terribly inconvenient date if there's to be a by-election in early November. This is further compounded by it being held in Inverness, a full 174 miles from the streets of Springburn, further away than Newcastle. The shuttle buses that ran from Perth to Glenrothes in November 2008 would not be needed in November 2009.
Labour may be holding their Autumn Conference in distant Brighton but the timing is fortuitous in that it will begin on the 27th of September, freeing up all their Scottish activists to have the streets of Glasgow North East all to themselves while the SNP's members are otherwise engaged up in the Highlands.
The same situation occurred in the Glenrothes by-election, the SNP Conference coming a matter of weeks before polling day, and although it may not have been a deciding factor, it was far from ideal for SNP HQ in ensuring doors were knocked and leaflets delivered to keep the momentum going.
Could this be helping fuel Labour's desire to hold the contest in November and leave the people of Springburn unrepresented for five long months? You never know...
If tomorrow is writ-less, the earliest potential date for the contest is 5th November. Gordon Brown wouldn't want to remember, remember that date given an SNP victory would be as explosive as Guy Fawkes' dynamite under the Houses of Parliament all those years ago.
So November 12th is the date that has been pencilled in.
Given such a ridiculous delay, why wouldn't Labour countenance an earlier by-election and move the writ tomorrow?
Plenty of theories have abounded from Brown wanting clear distance between two potential losses and a superstitious belief that the party can repeat the success of the November Glenrothes win last year.
I'd like to put forward another theory:
Autumn Party Conferences.
The SNP Conference will be held over the weekend of the 17th and 18th of October, a terribly inconvenient date if there's to be a by-election in early November. This is further compounded by it being held in Inverness, a full 174 miles from the streets of Springburn, further away than Newcastle. The shuttle buses that ran from Perth to Glenrothes in November 2008 would not be needed in November 2009.
Labour may be holding their Autumn Conference in distant Brighton but the timing is fortuitous in that it will begin on the 27th of September, freeing up all their Scottish activists to have the streets of Glasgow North East all to themselves while the SNP's members are otherwise engaged up in the Highlands.
The same situation occurred in the Glenrothes by-election, the SNP Conference coming a matter of weeks before polling day, and although it may not have been a deciding factor, it was far from ideal for SNP HQ in ensuring doors were knocked and leaflets delivered to keep the momentum going.
Could this be helping fuel Labour's desire to hold the contest in November and leave the people of Springburn unrepresented for five long months? You never know...
9 comments:
I don't think the dates of the SNP Conference would be a hinderance. From many years experience of elections the last ten days are the most crucial and that is well after the Conference. Having a long campaign and far too many leaflets just turns people off as well. You can never please the voters.
You may well be right Marcia.
I do seem to remember last year some quarters saying that Labour had missed out on a crucial weekend of campaigning cos they didn't have a candidate and that was a full 4 weeks out from the Glasgow East vote, so 2 or 3 weeks before vote day would be a bigger problem for SNP.
But, in truth, I don't know how it all works, I'm just speculating...
By-elections two nations, and four months, apart
We will see tomorrow whether Gordon Brown calls for the Glasgow North East by-election in August or November. Meanwhile the Norwich by election - caused by a resignation within days of Michael Martin giving up the office of Speaker and his Glasgow seat - takes place this week.
For a man who says he wants to clean up politics and brings forward a Constitutional Reform Bill following the expenses saga, Brown just can't seem to help himself from gerrymandering the political process. The Westminster rules of course let him do this. Just like the expenses issue, following the rules doesn't make it right. How is this helping rebuild people's faith in politics?
If we are to move to fixed term Parliaments for Westminster (following the good example of Holyrood (and most other modern democracies) then surely the timing of byelections should also be taken away from the Governing party. By-elections to be held within 90 days of the resignation or death or a sitting MP seems reasonable and fair - which means of course that it is unlikely to happen
Conference a few weeks beforehand shouldn't matter. It's usually only delegates who attend conference plus a minority of others. There are plenty non-delegates who will be available to campaign I'm sure.
I think it would do the SNP good, not to be too cock sure of winning Glasgow North East and not to wear the electors out with too much campaigning. As someone who took part in the Glenrothes campaign, I found that with more than a month to go I was putting leaflets through doors when they had already had SNP literature earlier that same day (it was often lying on the mat or sticking out of the letter box). That to me is overkill and it is much better to concentrate efforts on the last 2 weeks.
Munguin
Totally agree, the strategy must be very different from Gelnrothes as Labour are doing the dirty tricks campaign again.
The SNP must refrain from such mud slinging as they did in Glenrothes but concentrate on policy even more.
Nice thesis, but have to agree with SR et al. There will be hundreds of non-delegated Central Belt activists who can't afford a trip to Inverness. But they won't need to think twice to pop on the bus to Springburn to help out...
It is the middle of the School holidays in Scotland. English state schools broke up last week so most people are not away yet.
Why would any party want a low turn out?
Surely Labour are being considerate by preventing people from gathering at polling stations and catching swine flu?
It's the only good reason I can think of.
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