Good to see that, after a brief lull, the Glasgow North East by-election is getting a bit of attention even if we are still 3 months away from the poll date itself.
Political Betting speculates on whether the by-election will be a Glenrothes or a Glasgow East. A fine question and I would personally wager it will fall some way between the two. A fine night for the SNP but not enough to take the seat. Consequently, the 8/13 bet for Labour to win that Mike Smithson raises probably is good value.
In the Daily Record, Magnus Gardham brings us news of a couple of local skirmishes that have already kicked off.
Labour are fuming after SNP hopeful David Kerr described himself as a "local" candidate.
More precisely, he describes himself as a "strong local voice for Glasgow North East" in a letter to voters.
Fair enough really. In Glasgow East, Labour's Margaret Curran made the mistake of claiming to be from the constituency when she wasn't and it may have made the difference to her winning or losing the seat given the margin was 365 votes in the end. The SNP don't need to try too hard on this one unless Willie Bain's genuine local credentials are a particular threat.
I did enjoy the SNP's response to this story though:
"If he's elected he'll be the local voice,"
It isn't a far cry from "Oh, bugger off will you please".
Anyway, the other scrap involves funding for schools:
He (Kerr) says Glasgow's Labour-run council are cutting school funding by £7million.
That claim was first made by the SNP several weeks ago when the Scottish government published provisional figures on local authority spending.At the time the council said the figures were out of date and insisted they were actually set to increase education spending.
The SNP are aware of this but yesterday defended their cuts claim saying it was based on "the most up-to-date official figures".
Another bit of skullduggery from the SNP as far as I can see it but all's fair in love, war and by-elections and if they get a net gain from such a push then maybe it could be seen as justified.
For me however, they are a couple of pretty low blows from the Nationalists and it all adds to the inauspicious start of last month.
On current evidence, it looks like Glasgow East will go the way of Glenrothes.
Lindsay Lohan struggling in rehab
4 hours ago
19 comments:
Has Willie Bain given up his rented accommodation in London yet?
Is it rented or bought?
Has no-one asked what oo Willie was doing in London working at the Southbank University when he was supposed to be Speaker Martin's constituency agent?
The people of Glasgow NE (my neighbours) must be so happy to have such effective representation.
What are Labour running from?
David did live in a tenement flat on the corner of Duke Street and Bellgrove Street for the first few years of his life, which is something at least.
Michael Martin didn't live in the constituency, rather over the boundary in Bishopbriggs. Their candidate lives and works most of the week in London.
I don't see why we shouldn't go on the schools issue - the way Labour went about the closures caused a great deal of pain in a lot of communities.
Jeff
Is it not a bit ironic talking about local, when the last incumbent moved out of the constituency. It was not an issue then and it is not an issue now.
If it is an issue, does working and living in London constitute "local"
It surely beggars belief that a party with such a large lead in the opinion polls (Yougov Westminster) and defending a 10,000 majority are so afraid to hold the by-election, that they cannot name a date.
Maybe they know something we don't.
Wardog. A constituency agent is a real job, i.e, paid work.
Glenrothes, is now the Labour Party default template for fighting seats in Scotland. This one will be even dirtier. All we can do is remain positive and not stoop to the ad hominem...
BB,
I sincerely hope the SNP do make the campaign about schools as they will get a lot of joy from it.
However, knowingly using old figures in election campaigns is a quick way to turn victory into defeat.
The debate becomes the veracity of the SNP's literature rather than about the issue itself.
Furthermore, there is a subtle difference between education spending and the closure of the schools.
It's the latter the SNP will get joy from. On current evidence, it seems the former is not such a good angle to attack on.
Also, to defend David Kerr's local credentials by attacking Michael Martin's doesn't really square up in my book.
I don't think it's such a big deal where one's MP lives in the grand scheme of things, but Mr Kerr could look a bit silly trying to paint himself as Mr Springburn.
Dubbieside,
I agree, it's not really an issue.
But the SNP make it an issue when they try to fix the wording to make their candidate sound like the boy from just round the corner.
They should leave the 'local' stuff be or it'll come back to bite them the way it did for Margaret Curran.
If it's not an issue, why are they seemingly pushing it so hard?
Wardog,
No idea about Mr Bain's living arrangements.
I think it's fair to say Willie has a greater claim to be from the constituency than David has though.
And I don't think being an election agent means you necessarily have to live in the constituency. It's not easy getting jobs out there in the big bad world so begrduging someone for living in London while they work is a bit harsh in my book.
hah - GCC may say that they are going to increase spending on education but that is not what they have budgeted for.
When they change the budget allocations they will be telling the truth.
Until then they are not telling the truth.
Jeff
The schools are not the only issue that we can fight this by-election on.
The care charges in Glasgow are higher than the charges in Fife that was such a big issue at Glenrothes, and one that the SNP never really countered.
Even though it is a Westminster election, Labour will want to move the debate to Holyrood issues, where as the SNP will want to concentrate on council issues.
The one Westminster issue that will have mileage is the changes to the invalidity and benefits systems that Labour are proposing.
If Labour have suddenly increased education spending why haven't they told anyone and why haven't parents noticed. The only verified figures show not only a cut, but that Glasgow spends less of it's budget on education than any other local authority and 20% less than neighbouring East Renfrewshire, home to Scotland's top performing local authority education system. They spend less per pupil as well and are responsible for laying off hundreds of teachers as well as cutting probabtioner recruitment - despite having more money than ever before - and they've refused to cut class sizes - parents in Glasgow have every reason to be pissed off with labour - and they know it.
The real point is that if Labour are rebutting this with figures of what they claim the Council is spending, where's the money - or is it that the SNP have hit the nail on the head- Glasgow's children have been let down by Labour - looks like Labour can't take it.
Like Belle says, people are unhappy.
As for "local" - does anyone really care.
I'm not sure the SNP will gain votes with going on the schools issue. OK they may secure the votes of parents of the schools and nurseries affected, but everyone knows we have too many underoccupied schools and the rolls are projected to continue to fall. So why delay the inevitable?
The education spending has probably downturned because we have stopped expanding the Cities population as we have run out of empty houses.
I think people are smart enough to figure that out.
Personally, I would like to see more airing in the campaign of issues which really are in the remit of a Westminster MP. While local council issues matter, there are important broader questions of SNP/labour energy policy, welfare changes, should the banks have got government money, and so on. I'm not sure it helps the SNP in the long run for all the council/Holyrood/Westminster issues to get mixed up like they did in Glenrothes, because Labour can use that to evade being held to account for their Westminster record.
I agree with Colcannon, all this chat about care charges and schools is just daft, and I suspect most of those pushing for these devolved/council areas being issues know it.
Voting in David Kerr or Willie Baine will make no difference on anything related to education, schools, policing, local services etc.
This is a Westminster election. The debate should be about Westminster issues. (I completely forgot this key fact in my response to BB, so much for being "sincere"!)
Any deviation from what can be achieved by those in the frame is what puts people off Politics and politicians. And hey, the Westminster issues that affect Scotland are Trident, Iraq, ID cards.
We can take our pick and still be on the public's side of the argument...
I'm sure the SNP will be prepared to fight on any ground - but it would be nice to really get into the Westminster issues in the campaign.
Your anonymous commentator is correct on the education issue, there are many flaws in what Labour do in this city.
The closures didn't deal with under occupancy properly, and didn't accept reasonable suggestions for boosting occupancy. Just now, GCC are moving nurseries and primaries into half empty secondary schools, which they can't close because they are PFI. Some secondary schools now have under 500 pupils in them. Govan High School had 390 in September 2008.
The only reason to contest elections is to win.
The Labour party in the Glenrothes by-election covered every topic apart from anything to do with Westminster. Their candidate did not appear to know the different responsibilities of Holyrood or Westminster.
One of the reasons the SNP lost Glenrothes was that they tried to stick to Westminster issues. Anyone who canvased there will tell you Fife Council care charges were the big issue on the doorstep.
Im not sure what you are advocating here. Should we stick to Westminster issues while Labour try anything to retain this seat, or should we just be good losers and give up without a fight?
This election will not be held under Marquess of Queensberry rules.
Fair enough, there won't be Marquess of Queensberry rules. (Good one by the way). That does make me wonder if there bre campaign rules somewhere. Can a party be fined for campaigning on a topic outside of its candidates remit? Anyway, I agree one party can't let others bang the drum on schools and education while your prattling on about Trident for 3 months but i think it's important that it's other parties that move the debate into forbidden territory first. Then again, if voters are too ignorant to know what each of their politicians have control over, maybe it's perfectly fair to capitalise. I'm in two minds again.
Interesting discussion - I wonder if it was not sticking to Westminster issues that was a problem, but rather failing to draw Labour on to the Westminster ground.
Jeff, I'm not sure that voter confusion over politicians' remits can really be good for democracy. On a pragmatic level, the SNP need some kind of Westminster narrative to feed into the general election and any referendum campaign, i.e. going beyond local managerial competence.
Another good point Colcannon.
Labour stuck to care charges and they won Glenrothes but the SNP didn't push on Westminster issues and lost it. Who is to say what is the better strategy?
Holyrood and Council issues are messy terrain. On almost all Westminster issues the SNP should win the debate pretty easily.
And, with the added bonus that that institution is what the election is actually for, I reckon that should be plan A.
The schools issue does look like an open goal though given the sit-ins recently and hypocrisy with Edinburgh's similar position last year...
Jeff
I think the main point about Glenrothes was that the SNP did push the Westminster issues at the time, but, and its a very big but, they never countered the big doorstep issue, which was Fife Council care charges.
The SNP was I believe very naive during this by-election thinking that they were campaigning on the issues pertinent to Westminster. I believe the message to the SNP is what is pertinent to any election is the issue that is worrying the electorate at the time.
Hopefully we will use ever piece of ammunition at our disposal in Glasgow.
P.S. The better strategy might be to listen to what your activists are being told on the doorstep and acting on that, rather than what some suits in an office think is important.
Post a Comment