The recent YouGov poll now has the detail available and the breakdown of the Scottish section is as follows:
Labour - 35
SNP - 28
Tory - 19
Lib Dems - 14
Greens - 1
Sample size - 225
So it looks like Labour have overhauled the SNP's recent lead which I would personally put down to a Scottish closing of ranks behind one of its own Gordon Brown while he's up against a relative outsider in the posher and distinctly English David Cameron.
Not that that is a nationalist thing. I am sure a Yorkshire leader would pick up more votes in his home region than his party would otherwise with a leader from elsewhere. Just the way it is.
The SNP have ridden a wave for the past while but that wave will get choppier and smaller as the General Election on the shore approaches.
Indeed, the ancilliary questions in the YouGov poll show the differences north of the border compared with those down south and it a stronger support for the Labour party each time. In all areas of England the respondents say David Cameron would make the best PM, a Tory Government is better than a Labour one and the Conservatives would run the economy better. The opposite result is delivered north of the border.
Perhaps a narrative can be found that will trump Brown vs Cameron hogging the media headlines but I reckon the SNP should get used to being a little bit behind Labour as May 2010 approaches.
And given where the party was in 2005 in the last election, it probably shouldn't be complaining too much at that prospect.
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8 comments:
Margin of error so large the Tories could be in front.
Jeff
Do not go slitting a wrist just yet.
Remember what happened when real people went into real polling booths in June.
Polls go up and down, but the trend towards the SNP continues.
If Labour thought this snapshot was an accurate reflection the Glasgow by-election would have been held two weeks ago, even though "voters would be disenfranchised by an election during the holiday period"
The poll doesnt say much except that Labour are still the core vote in lemming land. Also are people less afraid to admit voting tory in Scotland? If they get 20% I will eat my hat.
However Geoff, for an experienced Scottish blogger you seem a tad confused over what is regional and what is National.
Scottish and English = National. Scotland is not a home region, Yorkshire is yes. You cannot talk of an Englishman on one hand and then argue this is not a nationalistic attribute by means reference to a Yorkshireman.
A sample that small would have a margin of error of 6.53%.
Labour are anywhere between 28.47% and 41.53%
The SNP are anywhere between 21.47% and 34.53%
The Tories are anywhere between 12.47% and 25.53%
The Lib Dems are anywhere between 7.47% and 20.53%
And the Greens could be anywhere between 0% and 7.53%
The key point is that the actual number can fall ANYWHERE in that range. You could claim that the poll shows that the Tories have beaten the SNP into third place with just as much confidence as you can that the SNP has a 6 point lead over Labour while the greens have overhauled the Lib Dems. Its all meaningless without a decent sample size.
"However Geoff, for an experienced Scottish blogger you seem a tad confused over what is regional and what is National.
Scottish and English = National. Scotland is not a home region, Yorkshire is yes. You cannot talk of an Englishman on one hand and then argue this is not a nationalistic attribute by means reference to a Yorkshireman."
I think you are trying to deny the rights of the Yorkshire Nation to self determination by pretending it is not a distinct nation...
The Republic of Greater Yorkshire is within grasping distance. "Free by 2023!"
http://www.godsowncounty.co.uk/04/yorkshire/yorkshire-independence-movement/
I suspect that the next UK general election will witness the last twitching of the corpse of the UK Labour Party in Scotland.
Once Brown is defeated, it will be clear to Scots that no-one based in Scotland is ever likely to be PM again, and that coupled with the evidence that the Tories will prevail in UK politics for the next decade or two, will lead to the SNP dominating Scottish elections both for Holyrood and Westminster.
I reckon you're right JPJ2. Gordon Brown being Scottish will help hold up the vote next year but thereafter Purcell? Miliband? I don't see deepest, darkest Glasgow coming out to vote for either of them in 2015.
That's if we're even still part of the UK come then after 4 years of the Tories being in charge.
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