Quite a remarkable day for the Lib Dems in their fine balancing act between being democrats and resisting an independence referendum.Kevin Lang, Lib Dem PPC for Edinburgh North & Leith, has given his full-throated support for an independence referendum with the following quote:
the time is right to take on the SNP on the debate on independence. We can win that argument.
The full 945-word text of his position can be found here.
I daresay the unionists can indeed win that argument although I also think that Kevin Lang has come out with this claim at least partly due to the SNP charge in the North & Leith constituency.
The SNP won the popular vote in the regional section of Holyrood 2007 and in the Euro election 2009 and given this is the only seat that the Lib Dem's can realistically 'gain' next year, Kevin will be feeling the pressure to do all that he can to pull it off. This is no doubt merely a part of that strategy.
Tavish Scott's response though is priceless:
Laughing off the issue, Mr Scott told BBC Scotland's Politics Show: "I remember what it's like to be a young, thrusting, energetic parliamentary candidate and you were desperate to get your face on the television.
Mr Scott went on: "I can well understand the need to say something which commentators and television reporters are very, very, keen to talk about, but I don't really think the people are."
So Kevin only holds these views because he is 'desperate to get his face on television'. I would be very unimpressed with that comment if I was Mr Lang.
Tavish should not be so quick to sacrifice young rising stars for the sake of a very precarious national position when it's inevitable that he will have to do a U-Turn sooner or later.
And George Lyon will also be coming out in favour of a referendum as we will find out on tomorrow's Good Morning Scotland. Is a seasoned veteran like MEP George just trying to get his face on the telly? I don't think so.
Indeed, Tavish himself said this upon taking charge of the Lib Dems as recently as August 2008 when he took charge of his party:
“I am not intuitively against making sure that people have a choice and opportunity to vote on these things.”
So we're meant to believe that Tavish is taking the principled stance and those breaking from the party line are the flaky whipper-snappers? Bizarre.
So trouble ahead for the Scottish Lib Dems if this isn't corrected soon.
However, I think there is a very easy way for the Lib Dems to nip this whole issue in the bud, particularly given Sir Tom Hunter (proponent of an independence referendum) stated today in the Sunday Times that we should delay the referendum.
Tavish Scott should announce his support now for an independence referendum at some point during the 2011-2015 term.
It puts the Nationalists' plans for a 2010 referendum off-track, it keeps most members onside and it ensures the Lib Dems are seen (probably quite rightly) as the most reasonable unionist party on constitutional issues.
Most importantly, it means the SNP can't campaign on the Scottish people being denied their say on Scotland's future.
14 comments:
Jeff
This poll about voting intentions in the referendum by age group may give some indication why the unionists are so afraid of holding it.
TNS Poll:June 2009 - Using the same format as the Scottish Government is proposing to put in a referendum.
Age Group - I agree:::I do not:::don't know
18-24:::::::::::::39%:::::::20%:::::::::40%
25-34:::::::::::::41%:::::::30%:::::::::29%
18-34:::::::::::::40%:::::::26%:::::::::34%
35-54:::::::::::::40%:::::::38%:::::::::22%
55+::::::::::::::::31%:::::::47%:::::::::23%
Total::::::::::::::36%:::::::39%:::::::::25%
There have been many polls but I do not think there is any newer grouped by age.
The unionists are afraid of democracy.
The Lib Dems can more realistically gain Edinburgh South - Lab majority 405 - and Aberdeen South - Lab majority 1,348. Both corresponding seats are held by them in Holyrood. The Lib Dems were 2,153 behind in North & Leith, which is on paper their third target.
Accepting a delay in the referendum until the next term allows the Libdems to enter coalition with the SNP, seeing as that is really the main issue they have a problem with.
And after a few years of budget wrangling with Mr Cameron, and maybe our banks back out of hock. May be better to wait.
Aswas, you regularly skewer me with your incisive knowledge of such stuff but let me put up a (potentially meek) defence for now:
Labour enjoy a mere 405 majority over the Lib Dems in Edinburgh South but also a fairly light 3,897over the Tories.
Given the Tory share of the vote in national polls is increasing significantly and the Lib Dem share of the vote decreasing significantly, even if the Lib Dems overhaul Labour (mostly due to Nigel's recent transgressions), I would argue that the Tories will be well clear of the Lib Dems even so.
I don't know if local personalities will make a difference to national trends but I'd say it's Neil Hudson's to lose at this juncture, particularly with a good bit of the former Edinburgh Pentlands in there.
Edinburgh North & leith is in the curious situation where, despite a negative national swing, the Lib Dems could still pull off a gain as the SNP are (regrettably) coming from a long way back and Labour could suffer an even worse swing than the LDs.
Aberdeen South, fair enough, it's perfectly achievable as a LD gain if North & Leith is (my meek defence has burst its banks). I don't know if Anne Begg enjoys more local support than Mark Lazarowicz does but I just get the impression Mark has run out of steam here and it's between SNP and the Lib Dems.
Maybe I don't appreciate that the Lib Dems could well be gunning for Aberdeen S as vigorously as they are for N&L though.
I keep all election literature on the bookshelf and it looks like a Kevin Lang shrine at the moment!
so a sweetener to pensioners would be rquired to change that 31-47 split.
whilst age is one way to break down voting patterns, religion is another.
there is a small catholic majority in favour of independence, and a fair sized majority against independence in the protestant community.
all those butcher's aprons at ibrox do actually have a political outcome!
'Scotland is 'an in-growing toenail' of a country'
In an interview with Total Politics magazine, Dr [David] Starkey said: “Scotland's decision with the Libyan bomber confirms everything I said about them. If you want to see what happens when a country becomes 'little' - when you have a government that wouldn't make county councillors in England, and a Minister of Justice that is an underemployed solicitor - that's what you get.“
Dr Starkey went on in his interview to call Scotland an ‘in-growing toenail’, claiming the nation had become increasingly insular.
He continued: “What's happened of course is that Scotland is now looking in. It has become exactly like medieval Scotland - the clannishness, the introversion, chucking money at the Edinburgh Festival to make it 'more Scottish', that awful Parliament, the dreadful Parliament building.
“The self-indulgence of the whole thing, the complete sense of in-growing toenail; I mean Edinburgh has turned into a city where you can see its toes growing in.”
“If you want to be academic about it, there are two completely different patterns of nationalism in the British Isles - the Celtic nationalism of Scotland, Wales, Ireland, which is entirely typical nineteenth century European nationalism, an invention based on folklore, supposed authentic peasant cultures which are entirely fictional, national dress, national music and some goddamn awful national poet like Burns. English nationalism went through that phase under Henry VIII.”
http://news.stv.tv/scotland/124420-scotland-is-an-in-growing-toenail-of-a-country/
Personally I'm quite happy to have some of the high profile Lib Dems coming to may way of thinking from over the past few years. I dropped my pen in the auditorium when first Kevin and then George said it was time.
How does Tavish remember what it's like to be young and thrusting?
Was that another Tavish in another life?
It's a storm in a teacup. The Lib-Dems don't do referendums.
We had the promise in their 2005 Election for a referendum on the new European Constitution.
We are therefore clear in our support for the constitution, which we believe is in Britain’s interest – but ratification must be subject to a referendum of the British people. (My bold)
But once the EU Constitution was kicked out and came back in as the Lisbon treaty Nick Clegg used that as an excuse to weasel out of a referendum precisely as Valéry Giscard d’Estaing predicted.
"The Treaty of Lisbon is the same as the rejected constitution. Only the format has been changed to avoid referendums.", Valéry Giscard d’Estaing, 27/10/2007
With both Clegg and Tavish against referendums Kevin Lang got the expected slap-down from Tavish. It's not going to go anywhere.
The electoral history suggests that if your party is weak in the polls that you will find it difficult to gain seats at the General Election. Chances of the LD gaining seats will be diminished by votes going to other parties. You cannot build an electoral shield in one particular seat as all seats will be subject to the electoral tide throughout the country. It may be weaker in some seats but there will be a tide, check ou the Euro elections.
The SNP came close in several seats in Oct 1974 and sunck without trace in nearly all in 1979. True, there are instances of seats bucking the trend such as Smethwick 1964, Colne Valley 1966 but there are not that many. A few favourable Liberal second places in 1992 proved to not escape the Labour tide in 1997 and Labour went from third to win beating the favourite such as Falmouth and Camborne.
Conidering the problems the LD are having in the Aberdeen area they should fall back there. It depend what the electoral tide will be flowing at next year as to who wins in EN & L. I wouldn't bet on the LD's.
The unionists are afraid of democracy.
What utter pish. The majority of the Holyrood chamber is made up of politicians elected on a platform opposed to independence. This is one of those recurring ignorant points made by bed-wetting Nats and cyber-nats alike.
What a childish comment by Anonymous - lets have some adult debate and stop throwing insults around.
It wasn't a referendum in 2007 - there are many who vote Labout but who will vote Yes in any referendum.
Redcliffe, wheres the opinion poll evidence to support that religious view? It has escaped me all my life why so many RC's support independence in Ireland, yet vote Liebour in Scotland. The Queen is to remain head of state in the independent Scottish state. If 15% or so of people vote Conservative and Unionist,I would assume the orangist wing is represented there. Where did you read that statistic you report?
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