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Monday, September 21, 2009

Who would vote Lib Dem in a house like this?

From the BBC:

The Lib Dems have outlined plans for a tax on owners of £1m-plus homes, using the proceeds to help low-paid workers.

Treasury spokesman Vince Cable says plans for a 0.5% annual levy on the most expensive homes will raise £1bn.


£1bn is a lot of money which is good but it also means that a lot of rich people are going to have to stump up which, for them at least, is bad.

Let's look at who may be affected by this shall we (courtesy of ESPC):


Constituency - Edinburgh South
Target seat for Lib Dem Fred McKintosh
Annual charge for living in 38 Findhorn Place - £5,750


Constituency - Edinburgh West
Seat held by retiring Lib Dem MP John Barratt (new candidate to be installed from a shortlist of 4 soon)
Annual charge for living in 4c Barnton Avenue West - £7,750


Constituency - Edinburgh Central
Target seat for Lib Dem Kevin Lang
Annual charge for living in 19 Chester St - £6,250

This 'mansion tax policy' from Vince Cable seems very poorly thought through indeed. Just because something needs done "immediately" (per Jo Swinson) that doesn't mean it should be half-baked.
Gerri Peev over at The Steamie has been following the Lib Dem Conference for The Scotsman and already has a list of searching questions on this:

Advisers could not explain whether they would use the 1991 valuations or whether to carry out a UK wide revaluation. Nor could the Lib Dems explain how much this would cost. Nor where the distribution lay. Cable himself is probably likely to be hit with the tax, Nick Clegg certainly will be.Where does this leave their previous pronouncements on property taxes being unfair?

I think in going so aggressively after disenchanted Labour voters, Nick Clegg and Vince Cable may be overstating the anti-capitalist feeling out there not to mention understating the aspirations of those who live in sub-million pound properties.

If all this pledge will do is annoy a significant number of people who might otherwise vote Lib Dem and baffle the rest of us, one has to wonder if Vince Cable should quickly go back to his own guilty-mansion and think of another plan.
As for Edinburgh. The closest Lib Dems get to 'heartlands' are Barnton, New Town, Grange, Morningside and the student vote. They had a single safe seat in Edinburgh West and a decent chance in both Edinburgh South and Edinburgh North & Leith. Has that just evaporated with today's announcement and the abandonment of their free tuition fees policy?

15 comments:

Fitalass said...

Having watched the Libdem conference unfold over the last two days, I am fare scunnered to understand what they are up too?

Having sailed up th electorate ladder on Labour's coat tails hissing and booing at the nasty Tories. They expect to cling to the rung they have reached in 2005 still hissing and booing at the Tories as Labour implodes? And they plan to do so by pi**ing off the very voters who have installed them in an electoral style they have become accustomed?

You couldn't make it up!

Annoy students by backtracking on student fee's and causing an internal row - check
Annoy all those middle class aspiring voters in Edinburgh, leafy Aberdeen, rural Aberdeenshire, Gordon and the Borders - check

No wonder Kennedy is wandering around the TV and radio studio's openly criticising his boss. He will be as worried about Clegg's opinion as David Cameron is right now.

But best for last, St Vince of Twickenham, does he even communicate with Clegg about fiscal policy? At the rate they are going, their credibility will fall almost as fast as Brown's.

Yours, a bemused Tory who cannot believe their luck!

Marcia said...

I'm with Chris that I can't see what they are doing in the Conference before the next GE to motivate their supporters or even broaden their support.

A lot of LD gains in the last election were in the 'University' seats such as Cardiff Central, Cambrige, Solihull. The Iraq war and the manifesto on student fees helped them win seats such as these. Some close results in Edinburgh were because of this. Most of these students are no longer there and there will not be the same incentive to vote LD in these seats. They could lose a few marginal seats they gained in 2005.

Allan said...

At least they are trying to put suggestions forward to aleviate the rich/poor gap in this country. Sounds like we haven't learned a single jot from the worst recession in living memory if the responses are anything to go by.

Jeff said...

I think the Lib Dems have seen an opportunity so close to a General Election with Labour clearly falling apart and thought 'we won't get a chance like this to become the 2nd biggest party for decades'.

But in their excited, agitated state they seem to have somewhat taken their eye off the ball.

I'm genuinely at a loss to understand what the Lib Dems stand for beyond scrapping Trident.

So yeah, agree with both of you Marcia and, em, Chris (?)

Jeff said...

Allan,

A fair point but I would like to think that Vince Cable would be able to come up with something more nuanced and thought-through than the shakedown that is 'right, you lot in the fancy houses, cough up'.

They seem to have no answers to Gerri Peev's questions so it begs the question whether it's a serious policy at all.

mav said...

The worrying thing for me is they've come up with £1bn of tax rises and £16bn of tax cuts. There is either another £15bn of tax rises which they have only hinted at, and were hoping to draw attention from with their £1m house property ruse, or their sums are very, very badly out.

Oh - they would need the agreement of the Scottish Parliament for it to apply here, apparently. Would they get it?

Marcia said...

meant to type 'Fitalass' and not 'Chris'.

Allan said...

Listening to Cable on the 9 o'clock news on Radio Scotland, i suspect he's actually thought too much about this one.

Need to get liquidity into the economy=tax the rich, possibly rich mansions. However do we add another band onto the council tax? No we'll just have a straight forward tax on mansions, don't want to scare the voters with a possable re-evaluation of council tax bands.

As policy announcements go, not good. However, we'll see where this takes the other parties.

tris said...

I thought they were against property tax?

Fitalass said...

"So yeah, agree with both of you Marcia and, em, Chris (?)"

Yes, I am normally Chris, but due to popularity of name, I go by Fitalass on Twitter and on Scottish blogs cos the other half is Fitaloon. In house joke.
Most folk immediately work out it out if they know the other half's tag.

Jeff said...

I've no idea Tris, I'm honestly losing track of what their stance is on a number of issues.

The Lib Dems need several key, clear, core messages for the GE or they'll get annihilated.

Nick Clegg's good though, I'm looking forward to his speech, whenever it may be (this does seem like a long conference)

CassiusClaymore said...

Who cares? They're not getting elected. Totally irrelevant.

CC

Anonymous said...

A Voice from Lothian - who does not have a Google Account in that name.

You have all your figures wrong. The consequence of the Mansion tax policy is this:-

You pay 0.5% of value only on that part over £1m, so in the case of 38 Findhorn Place that would mean £750 each year not £5750. Also remember that everyone saves £700 each year on the zero rate band up to £10,000. So the cost to a single occupant of Findhorn Place - £50 net.

Also from Nick Clegg's speech today "We will raise the income tax threshold to £10,000, funded by closing loopholes that the wealthy exploit, and by making sure polluters pay for the damage they cause. I’ll be honest. If you’ve got a house worth over a million pounds; if you fly trans-Atlantic a couple of times a month; if you get a seven-figure bonus paid in share options to get round income tax – you will pay more. That is what is fair." Now tell me what is wrong with that..

Jeff said...

Seriously, is that all it is?

Pah, that's nothing. Perhaps not even worth the bother.

I certainly don't need a £700 tax rebate so although I've misunderstood the policy, I still think it all sounds a bit daft.

I do wonder if I am in the minority in thinking it is 0.5% of the total property value.

I think taxing the rich in this way is too easy a way out. We needed longer term solutions than this, something that will capture the imagination of all sides of the political and economic spectrum, not just lifting billions from 'the rich' and dropping it on 'the poor'.

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